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Press Releases
TrendForce: 1H’October Contract Prices Continue to Rise due to Effects of SK Hynix’s Fire Accident, 4GB Module Prices Approach $US 35

2013/10/21

Semiconductors

According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, the highest price for the mainstream 4GB modules has reached $US 34 due to the supply shortages resulting from SK Hynix’s fire accident and the continuous contract price uptrend The price represents an estimated 625% increase compared to the amount observed in September Calculating on the basis of the aforementioned figure, the 4Gb chip price translates to approximately $US 394, which is close to the $US 4 mark, and only 8% lower than the highest 4Gb chip price in the spot market ($US 425) By the time the contract prices are announced in 2H’October, it is expected that the difference between the contract price and spot price will grow smaller The overall impact that SK Hynix’s Wuxi plant fire has on first tier PC-OEMs do not appear to be overly significant In part, this is because the Korean company generally prioritizes providing the majority of its supplies to these OEMs The second and third tier PC OEMs, on the other hand, are gradually feeling the impacts of the supply shortages With such a trend continuing, the spot prices are unlikely to drop anytime soon Even though SK Hynix is currently intensifying its efforts to recover lost production and is looking to resume wafer start in November, the main production supplies intended for the market will not be ready until either December or the beginning of 2014 The Q4 pricing movements, for the most part, are still expected to be influenced by the supply shortages in October and November Samsung Seeking to Reclaim PC DRAM Market following SK Hynix’s Fire Accident The fire incident at SK Hynix’s Wuxi plant has caused the production of nearly 130K wafers to be halted on a monthly basis, which in turn led to a 40% increase in spot prices and the monthly growth in the contract pricing market The contract prices have already managed reach close to the $US 35 mark as of 1H’October Under the aforementioned developments, two Korean manufacturers are taking action to protect their status within the PC DRAM market Samsung has begun to make necessary adjustments to enhance its PC DRAM market share by increasing the PC DRAM production in its Line 12 and Line 16 plants In attempting to compensate for lost production following the fire accident, SK Hynix increased the utilization rate in both its M10 and M12 plants, and has made an effort to allocate parts of its NAND Flash capacity to DRAM According to TrendForce’s estimates, the combined total of the two aforementioned companies’ added production is between 100K-120K per month, which is about equivalent to the original capacity at the Wuxi plant By the end of Q4, both Samsung’s and SK Hynix’s added wafer output levels are likely to reach a maximum, with the main production set to begin in 1Q14 and expected to make up for the losses from the fire With regard to the new Micron group, given that its production is relatively unaffected by the fire accident, its Singapore Tech plant will continue to allocate DRAM capacity to NAND Flash, whereas its Hiroshima plant will ramp up the production of mobile DRAM in order to satisfy the demands of its major clients While the level of DRAM production has increased in Micron’s Taiwan group (Rexchip), this strategy has reportedly been implemented before the fire accident, and no changes have apparently been made TrendForce believes that even if the relevant DRAM production is increased, the impact will only be noticeable during the end of Q4 and the beginning of 2014 In the near term, neither the production shortage situation nor the price uptrend is expected to change anytime soon

Press Releases
TrendForce: Market Transactions Sluggish due to Weak Chinese Holiday Sales, 1H'October NAND Flash Contract Prices Remain Flat

2013/10/17

Semiconductors

According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, the market transactions were sluggish in 1H'October due to the underwhelming Chinese holiday sales and the conservative attitude displayed towards the market situation for Thanksgiving and Christmas While SK Hynix's Wuxi plant fire accident prompted some manufacturers to allocate portions of their NAND Flash capacity to DRAM, the mainstream NAND Flash contract prices have stayed mostly flat throughout1H'October Looking at the supply side, in the periods following the fire accident at the Wuxi plant, SK Hynix will take steps to make up for its lost production by shifting parts of the M12 plant's NAND Flash capacity to DRAM Approximately 40K/m wafers are expected to be allocated on a monthly basis Samsung, meanwhile, is planning to use up to 5% of its NAND Flash capacity for DRAM production Because of the short term decreases in wafer volumes resulting from the aforementioned developments, the Q4 NAND Flash industry bit growth is projected to slide down to approximately 78% QoQ With the NAND Flash-to-DRAM allocation processes expected to last until 1H14, the 1Q14 bit growth will likely only be 59% QoQ Looking at the demand side, due to the sluggish sales in the memory card and UFD markets, the not-as-expected results of the major vendors' aggressive pricing strategies in Asia and other special regions, and the growing saturation in the high-end smartphone and tablet markets, various vendors are beginning to display an increasingly more cautious attitude towards the Q4 sales performances While the supply of NAND Flash is expected to decrease in the short term following SK Hynix's and Samsung's capacity adjustments, TrendForce believes the NAND Flash contract prices could still drop due to the yet-to-improve end demand situation, the tendency for inventories to remain high, and the lack of willingness on the suppliers’ part to replenish or purchase inventory as the traditional off-peak quarter arrives in 2014

Press Releases
TrendForce: September 4K TV Panel Shipment Continued to Peak

2013/10/16

Display

According to the shipment survey by WitsView, the display research division of the global market intelligence provider TrendForce, the large-sized panel shipment in September 2013 reached 6918 million units, declining 13% MoM  The restocking demand for Oct 1st holidays in China lifted the TV panel shipment and the September LCD TV panel shipment rose 13% MoM to 1957 million units, and among these, the 4K panel shipment reached a new high with 39% growth The IT panel market was constrained due to the limited end demand and the downstream brands’ conservative purchase strategies, and the shipment growth trimmed from the previous month The monitor panel shipment declined 41% MoM to 1352 million units, while the shipment for the 101”-and-above NB panels came to 1507 million units, dropping 9% MoM The new tablets, including iPad5 and Kindle Fire HDX series that are about to hit the market, boost the panel demand, and the overall tablet panel shipment attained 2101 million units, growing 44% MoM Source:WitsView As the promotional period of Mid-Autumn and Oct 1st ended, the overall LCD TV sales result declined from the same period last year, meeting the market’s expectation, due to the withdrawal of subsidy policy The promotional core has shifted from last year’s 3D and high-efficient TVs to smart internet connection and 50”-and-above large cheap TVs In addition, the 4K TV has performed an ideal sales result with brands’ strong promotional campaign   WitsView research manager Jeffy Chen indicates that with Chinese brands’ heating up demand for 4K TVs, the 4K TV panel shipment grew largely 39% from the previous month in September, seeing a single-month shipment of 053 million units Innolux stayed ahead of all panel makers with its 4K TV panel shipment largely rising 52% from the previous month, and its 4K TV panel shipment accumulated from Jan to Sep officially topped the one-million-unit mark, leading its rivals Chen further indicates that for the 4K TVs’ shipments by sizes, the 50” and the 55” secured the No1 and No2 places with 25% and 22%, respectively The 4K TV panels under 50”, including the 39” and the 42”, accounted for 40% of the market, clearly indicating Chinese brands’ ambition to include the high, mid, and low ends to the 4K series of products they are building Based on WitsView’s estimate, the overall large-sized panel shipment in October is likely to rise 1-2% from September Except for the tablet panel shipment that continues to grow 15-20%, the TV panel shipment may see an adjustment in October after the restocking peak in August and September, expected to drop 4-5% The IT panel market continues to weaken with the monitor panel shipment and the NB panel shipment decreasing 4% and 9% respectively

Press Releases
TrendForce: Better Prospect in PV Market Leads to Increased Polysilicon Demand in 1Q14

2013/10/15

Energy

According to EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce, the intensive pricing competition in the PV market has gradually come to an end Due to the increased demand in the emerging markets, solar system demand in 2014 is likely to rise substantially As indicated by EnergyTrend’s data, deducting the amount of solar system installations which haven’t completed grid-connection in 2012, the total amount of grid-connected installations is likely to reach 286GW in 2013 As for the total amount of shipment in 2013, it will be around 333GW, which shows that the overall supply within the PV market can be somewhat sufficient Although the total amount of module shipment may be about 40GW in 2014, the actual amount of grid-connected installations will only be around 395GW Module supplies, therefore, may be somewhat restricted The oversupply situation in the global PV industry within the past few years have led to the decreased polysilicon price Since most of the new manufacturers continue to suffer from losses, they have suspended production line operation successively since the second half of 2012, which caused global polysilicon capacity to continue to decline However, market demand may increase in 2014 As it may take about a quarter to get the polysilicon production line restarted, EnergyTrend believes that polysilicon supply may be restrained or even become insufficient in 1Q14 As indicated by EnergyTrend’s data, global polysilicon output is around 017 million tons in 2013, which represents 31GW of supply The average quarterly supply is between 7GW-8GW Looking into 1Q14, EnergyTrend estimates that demand of silicon wafers will be around 8GW But based on current output, polysilicon supply is around 004 million tons, which is 72GW of supply On the other hand, manufacturers are still optimistic about the demand in 4Q13 with current shipment condition remaining normal In addition, it’s projected that inventory level will remain the same According to the current condition, EnergyTrend believes that polysilicon supply may become more restricted in 1Q14 EnergyTrend indicates that whether the supply shortage can be solved or not will have to depend on the following variables: how fast Chinese polysilicon manufacturers can restart the production, new production capacity status (eg Hanwha, Tokuyama, OCI, etc), and the ratio of new capacity in semi-conductor grade and solar-grade product If the progress for the above variables can meet or even surpass expectations, the condition of polysilicon supply and demand may be improved from the end of 1Q14 to the beginning of 2Q14

Press Releases
TrendForce: Global LED Lighting Demand Growths to Continue in 2014

2013/10/15

LED

The LED lighting market value will soar 478% to reach US$353 billion by 2014, compared to 2013, according to projections by LEDinside, a green energy research subsidiary of Trendforce In addition, LED lighting penetration rates are expected to increase 327%, with bulb and tube penetration rates at 20% and 15% respectively To meet new LED bulb and tube market demands in 2014, an estimated 250 MOCVD equipment will be required, according to Jack Kuo, Senior Analyst, Trendforce Observations from LED chip manufacturer utilization rates in 2013 showed top Taiwanese and Chinese LED chip makers production capacity is still high However, there is still a large number of idle MOCVD equipment in China The equipment is mostly owned by small manufacturers, and under an increasingly competitive pricing environment, the costs are overtly high for small manufacturers to utilize MOCVD equipment Small manufacturers are expected to gradually drop out of the LED supply market LED lighting demand increase in 2014 indicates competitive LED chip manufacturers will continue to expand production capacity in 2014 Aside from raising yield rates, days of machine operation, and number of operations, it is estimated large LED chip manufacturers will be acquiring MOCVD equipment from small manufacturers to expand production capacity Looking at MOCVD equipment expansion, after placing an order, LED chip manufacturers need to wait for MOCVD manufacturers to ship the machine, install, and make adjustments In other words, new equipment purchased cannot provide production capacity in a short period of time, therefore, the possibility of large LED chip manufacturers acquisition of small manufacturers to expand production capacity has greatly increased This is the only way that manufacturers can be equipped to face production capacity challenges in the fast growing LED lighting market Source:LEDinside The two day LEDforum Taipei 2013 will take place on Oct 16-17, 2013 at the Evergreen International Convention Center The first day of the forum will explore and analyze advanced LED technology from upstream LED material, equipment, and epitaxy market to give attendees understanding over latest industry and commercial challenges The second day of the forum will explore new LED application plus designs, and help participants navigate the post LED era blue sea markets LEDforum Taipei 2013 will give attendees control over the latest market developments and new development directions Those from different fields in the LED industry are welcome to attend the forum Due to limited number of forum handouts, media planning to attend the event should contact Jasmine Huang, PR Manager, Executive Administration Office, TrendForce: E-mail: jasminehuang@trendforcecom Cellphone:+886-0930-907304 LEDforum Taipei 2013 is sponsored by Aixtron, GT Advanced Technologies, Merck, Osram Opto, Philips Lumileds, Veeco Instruments and Lighting Japan 2014 About TrendForce: TrendForce is an international research organization with four major research divisions including DRAMeXchage, WitsView, LEDinside, and EnergyTrend The company’s research subject covers DRAM, NAND (Flash), PC, monitors, LED and green energy related industries

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