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Press Releases
TrendForce: Panel Makers Compete in 50”-and-under UHD TV Market with UHD TV Panel Penetrate Rate Possibly Rising to 2% in 2014

2013/09/16

Display

Since the UHD TV became the market’s focus in 2013, TV makers have pinned the hope on the product to lift sales momentum in the sluggish market According WitsView, the display research division of the global market intelligence provider TrendForce, the UHD TVs launched by 1st tier brands usually feature high value-added functions such as 3D and smart internet connection, making the new models unaffordable Besides, the broadcasting and transmission standard that meets UHD TV spec has not established yet, and the native UHD program content is insufficient, making the UHD TV sales extremely difficult WitsView projects a penetration rate of only 08% for UHD TV panels in the 2013 panel market, and the low-cost UHD TV panel is likely to be a bright spot chased by panel makers in 2014, seeing a penetration rate up to 2% Panel makers emphasize on the spec at the beginning of development, including 120Hz and 3D with mostly sizes of 50” and above The main mass-produced sizes are 55” and 65” to underline the UHD TV’s high-end position, which have costs higher than the FHD panel by 15-16 times However, INX has a distinct strategy on the UHD TV by not only adopting the sizes under 50”, including 39”, 42”, and 50”, but lowering the product spec to enter the Chinese market with advantages of low costs As long as the set selling price comes to the sweet point for consumers, the market scale is likely to further expand   WitsView research manager Boyce Fan says the key to produce the low-cost UHD TV is to cut the frame rate and reduce the use of key components such as driver IC and Tcon, meanwhile, the panel transparency must be lifted to drive down the BLU module cost and boost the panel production yield Besides, the formation of “One Tcon Solution” will largely simplify the signal transmission structure between the TV system end and the panel end, a development direction for the upcoming new UHD TV models Generally speaking, the cost gap between the UHD TV panel and the FHD can be narrowed to 13-14 times by adjusting the spec and simplifying the structure, and the gap would approach to 11-12 times with the rising yield        In addition to the cost concern, based on the UHD TV panel price changes and the set retail prices, it can be found that the high-end 65” UHD panel has a 15 time price gap with the FHD, while the low-cost 50” has gap within 13 times For the TV set retail selling price gap, the 65” has a selling price gap as large as 3 times between the UHD and the FHD models in North America, while it is only a 15 time gap between the 50” UHD and FHD TVs in China Under the current economic environment, WitsView believes prices remain the main drivers to consumption     Low-cost UHD TV panels indeed gain traction in China, encouraging other panel makers to restart the product development for the 50” and under WitsView projects the low-cost UHD TV panel is likely to become a star product focused by major panel makers, and its penetration rate will possibly attain 2% in 2014 Figure: Forecast of UHD TV Panel Penetration Rate Source:WitsView

Press Releases
TrendForce:Six Major LED Development Trends in 2014

2013/09/16

LED

In 2013, the LED package market value was US$ 125 billion and is expected to reach US$ 1339 billion (Year-on-Year +7%) in 2014, according to a LEDinside gold report Tablets and smartphones are still highlights of the LED market in 2014 The two applications have shown stable growth as it benefited from increased resolution and market demands As for lighting applications, LED package value and lighting applications greatly increased in 2014, with most evident growth in engineering, commercial and outdoor lighting markets LEDinside observed several changes in the LED application market in 2014 1 LED-backlit TV market penetration rate saturated, limited growth in the future LED-backlit TV penetration rate will reach 95% by the end of 2013, according to statistics compiled by LEDinside Affected by the saturated market penetration rate and slow down of TV sales, LED-backlit TV market value will slump for the first time in 2014 2 LED tablet applications still the main growth drive in future backlight markets Affected by traditional off peak season and high inventory levels, tablet shipments were lower than estimations in 3Q13 Annual tablet shipment projections were lowered to 196 million, and annual shipment growth rates were down from earlier estimations this year of 336% to 311% This shows that tablet shipments have eased, and although future tablet growths is waning, it still has considerable room for growth compared to other IT products LEDinside estimates tablet LED backlight applications CAGR will reach 8% from 2013 to 2017 3 iPhone5S dual-FLASH LED design adds to the imagination Since Flash LED prices fell quickly in 2013, total production value increased at a mediocre rate of 3% To add value to their smartphones, Apple has introduced “true tone flash” technology onto its iPhone 5S The technology employs dual-flash LED for light compensation, and adds onto the original white flash LED structure another warm color LED to compensate for the color temperature difference Dual-flash LED designs are expected to further raise flash LED demands, by increasing the LED pcs used in 2013 by 273% to 144 billion pcs, and reach 17 billion pcs by 2014 LEDinside is observing whether other smartphone manufacturers will be following suit, and there is still a lot of room for imagination in the flash LED market 4 Small pitch LED display technology matures Besides using LED displays for signaling and advertisement, LED manufacturers are also promoting small pitch LED display The shortest distance between LED display and pixels is 12-16 mm in current small pitch LED displays, and its advantages include good color saturation and high resolution Costs are far lower than same sized LCD monitors, especially in the 110-inch monitor market From a long term perspective, LED displays can replace a part of LED-backlit TV applications, and enter commercial and mass consumer markets 5 Rising demands in commercial, engineering and outdoor lighting market Observations of the LED lighting market show significant market value growths for LED package applications in 2014 Out of these, growth in engineering, commercial and outdoor markets will be most evident In addition, rising LED bulb, tubes and commercial lighting markets has led to huge demands for mid power LED, especially as 5630 and 3030 packages (PKG) become the market mainstream LEDinside projects mid power LED market value to surpass high power LED market in 2013 and 2014 6 Emerging LED specification for backlight and general lighting Due to raging price wars in the lighting market, the entry of 5630 PKG, which specifications has higher price/performance (P/P) ratio than traditional high power LED has become widely popular among luminaire manufacturers LED manufacturers have been trying to develop products with higher P/P ratio than 5630 PKG Since the launch of Japan package manufacturer Nichia Corp 757 series 3030 PKG received a warm market welcome, many manufacturers have also released products with the same specifications in 2Q13High current 2835 PKG is also gradually spreading among Chinese package manufacturers Not only can it be used in backlight applications, it can also be used in the lighting market, and is also popular among clients LEDinside research showed, comparisons between 3030 PKG (05-09 W), 2835 PKG, and 1-3W LED showed 3030 PKG had the best p/p ratio, and was the most price competitive Prices for 3030 PKG reached US$ 012-016 in 3Q13 LEDinside projected 3030 PKG and 2835 PKG will replace 5630 PKG as the market mainstream in the future

Press Releases
TrendForce:August 4K TV Panel Shipment Topped One Million Unit Benchmark

2013/09/13

Display

According to the large-sized panel shipment survey by WitsView, the display research division of the global market intelligence provider TrendForce, the large-sized panel shipment for August 2013 attained 7011 million units, rising 11% MoM The promotional restocking demand for Oct 1st holidays in China emerged and some brands prepared for the 2H’13 peak season in Europe and the US, supporting the TV panel shipment, and the August LCD TV panel shipment grew 58% to 1931 million units The monitor panel shipment climbed 53% MoM to 1410 million units as the downstream SI makers saw rising shipment demands The 101”-and-above NB panel shipment reached 1656 million units, growing 134% MoM, as the shipment  was supported by brand’ demand for new models carrying Haswell chips and the basis period in July was low The tablet panel shipment reached 2012 million units, rising 19% MoM, as the demands for Apple, Google’s Nexus 7, and Samsung’s tablets remained strong, and white-box makers launched new higher-resolution models In the 2013 Germany IFA that has just ended, besides the curved OLED TV that attracts the market’s eye, the 4K TVs are hot products intensively displayed by all brands, and medias’ massive coverage and reports become the best publicity for the upcoming 4K TV campaign war during the Oct 1st holidays in China In H1’13, Japanese brands such as Sony and Toshiba led to showcase the 4K TVs of 55”, 65”, and 84”, while Korean and Chinese brands revealed the 4K TVs of 55”and above The 39” 4K TV priced at only RMB 3,333 by KONKA has sparked talks in the industry, and other five major Chinese brands will also sell 4K TVs of 39”, 42”, and 50”, suggesting Chinese brands are touting a 4K TV lineup of large, medium, and small sizes to fully boost the Oct 1st sales WitsView’s research manager Jeffy Chen indicates that as Chinese brands held a strongly growing demand for 4K TVs, the 4K TV panel shipment jumped to 038 million units in one single month, rising 47% from the previous month As a result, through the end of August, the 4K2K TV panel shipment accumulated to 122 million units, officially surpassing the benchmark of one million units Among the panel makers, Innolux had an aggressive strategic deployment on 4K TV panel products, enjoying a 55% market share, and when combined with AUO, Taiwanese panel makers have successfully gained nearly 80% of the market The Oct 1st promotional period will be a crucial moment to see how Chinese consumers accept the 4K TVs  Looking ahead to 2014, the three Gen 85 fabs of BOE, Samsung, and LGD will be operational in Hefei, Suzhou, and Guangzhou, and how to secure a place in the world’s largest LCD TV market will be the key to efficiently digest the new capacity If the 4K TV segment is successfully expanded in China, in 2014, Korean and Chinese panel makers will inevitably attack the under-55”4K TV panel market, including 48”/49” and 40”/42”  The war for the entire series of 4K panels will be formally declared in 2014  Chart 1: TFT-LCD Panel Shipment in Aug-13 (K units) Source:WitsView  

Press Releases
TrendForce:Major Fire Damages Wear Down SK Hynix’s Wafer Plant, Up to 60K Wafers May be Affected

2013/09/13

Semiconductors

According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, the fire accident experienced by SK Hynix's Wuxi Plant on September 4 is now revealed to have originated from its Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) machinery Other than the severely burned down equipments, the fire, heavy smoke, and power shortages are known to have also contributed to the direct contamination of the clean room and the notably damaged wafer production lines Luckily, SK Hynix's Wuxi Plant is based on a special "Gemini" architecture, one which enables the clean room and other important facilities to operate independently Under such a design, even when a major accident hits an area, a plant would still be able to maintain at least 50 percent of its total production capacity While SK Hynix is believed to have preserved half of its Wuxi Plant production, a number of its important facility regions are reportedly still heavily worn down from the smoke The date for when the final rebuilding procedures will take place, as such, remains highly uncertain With the fire originating from within the clean room, the difficulty of recovering the affected half of the capacity in the short term—assuming both the equipment and clean rooms were heavily damaged—are also relatively high Sources with close knowledge of semiconductor equipments have so far indicated that the recovery process could take as long as three months to half a year to complete To facilitate the entire process, SK Hynix has sent up to hundreds of professionals and engineers to visit the accident site and to assess the situation more carefully Once the damages to the Wuxi Plant have been clarified, the DRAM industry is projected to be in for a series of major challenges Affected Period May Last At Least Two Months, Samsung and Micron to Benefit from Situation The fire damages experienced by the Wuxi plant's WIP and the inconveniences caused by the power loss and contamination are expected to lead to a number of problems in the short term Even if production temporarily resumes, the implementation of various of the necessary clean up procedures, the close examination of the clean room, the re-inspection of the machineries, and the reconfiguration of various manufacturing settings are all expected to restrict the total number of wafers produced The WIP reconfiguration and manufacturing delays, in particular, will likely impact at least two months’—or roughly 260K’s—worth of wafer production With PC DRAM appearing to be the most affected product line from the fire, the DRAM spot prices are unquestionably also going to be affected Looking at the pricing market, the spot prices have up to this point managed to rise by an estimated higher than 20% The module houses and vendors in the spot market have all started to supply products in small quantities, and, following the news of a possible price surge, are awaiting further development Looking over to the contract market, the PC-OEMs have sent a number of personnel over to both SK Hynix's head quarters and the Wuxi plant in order to clarify the full extent of the fire damages Some of the OEMs are even seeking help from first tier module houses and Taiwanese DRAM manufacturers to ensure their future supply can be secured In the event that proper action is not taken, a tightening of the inventory could happen as soon as Q4 of this year A price surge in the DRAM market, additionally, could also become inevitable TrendForce believes Samsung and Micron will be the biggest beneficiaries of the current situation with SK Hynix, and that the growth and decline of the three major DRAM manufacturers will be considerably affected in the periods to come  

Press Releases
TrendForce:Taiwanese LED Manufacturers Deliver Solid Performance in Aug. 2013 as Market Rebounds

2013/09/12

LED

Affects from the termination of China’s Home Appliance Subsidiary Programs in 1H13 caused LED backlight market demands to ease in June and July this year, according to LEDinside, a green energy research subsidiary of global research institute TrendForce However, some chip manufacturers have reflected a rebounding market, due to stable market orders in 2H13 and several TV manufacturers inventory restock demands In 2H13, the LED market might show signs of moderate growth during peak season in 3Q, and off-peak season in 4Q will deliver a solid performance In Aug 2013, listed Taiwanese LED manufacturers’ total revenue increased 17% to NT$ 1114 billion (US$ 37529 million) Out of these, Taiwanese LED chip manufacturers’ revenues reached NT$ 395 billion, while package manufacturer revenues was NT$ 718 billion Chip and Package Manufacturers Revenues Remain Stable with Christmas Season Stock Up Effect and Stable Lighting Application Development LED chip manufacturers are benefiting from Christmas and Chinese Lunar New Year inventory stockup, which has led to rebounding demands in the backlight market LED chip manufacturers revenues were stable in Aug 2013 as a result For instance, chip manufacturers including Epistar and FOREPI revenues were stable in August, and reached NT$ 197 billion and NT$ 420 million respectively In addition, the market should pay continuous attention to the future market development of San’an Optoelectronics and FOREPI, said LEDinside San’an Optoelectronics and FOREPI’s joint venture was approved by Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA), and the two companies will be procuring and making technological developments together There might be more partnerships between Taiwan and Chinese manufacturers in the future Furthermore, chip price trends will be affected by Chinese manufacturers’ significant production capacity increase The Chinese market is likely to impact second tier Taiwanese chip manufacturers, and result in more companies following the footsteps of Chi Mei Lighting Technology Corp (CMLT) and Chiplus Semiconductor Corp of exiting the LED market LED package manufacturers revenue performances were polarized Some LED manufacturers benefited from lighting and smartphone application demands that led to continual revenue growth For these manufacturers, Aug 2013 revenues were partially supported by the launch of new handheld devices in Sept, such as iPad, Kindle Fire and Nexus 7 Handheld devices include both smartphones and tablets However, manufacturers with a LED-backlit TV focus underperformed Still, Everlight had outstanding Aug revenue performance, mainly due to its LED streetlight bids, and recognized revenue from acquired German lighting manufacturer WOFI On the other hand, Lextar and Unity Opto Technology Co August revenues were affected by waning LED-backlit TV demands, and Edison Opto’s Inc revenue growths also slowed down In hopes of raising its market revenue and market share, Edison Opto announced it has started expanding PLCC and COB production capacity While Advanced Optoelectronic Technology Inc (AOT) revenues soared 147% to NT$ 660 million as it benefited from Nichia OEM orders  

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