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keyword：Angus Kao，
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2015/08/06
Orders continued to stream into the photovoltaic (PV) market during the latter half of July, according the latest PV price report by EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce Besides China’s domestic demand being spurred by government policy, market demands remain strong across regions, including the United States, Japan and India Capacity utilization rates continue to rise for all industry participants, and top-tier module manufacturers at downstream will see their capacities fully booked for at least the next three months EnergyTrend anticipates that high demand will persist to the year’s end, but price increases will be somewhat limited
"With demands becoming certain, the main factor dictating the prices along the supply chain in August will be China closing polysilicon process trade loophole," said Angus Kao, analyst at EnergyTrend Polysilicon prices in China may stabilize and then rise when polysilicon imports diminish and demand picks up Nonetheless, the downstream market will determine the extent of price increase, and prices have been mostly set for August’s downstream orders Hence, the Chinese polysilicon market will not see a big price jump during this month The increase will be around 2~3%, from the current price of RMB 116~118/kg to RMB 120/kg
In the silicon wafer market, demand is shifting towards high-efficiency multi-Si wafer because of efficiency improvements made on PV modules Since the orders for high-quality wafers have been brisk, the second- and third-tier wafer manufacturers have added their capacities into the production Thus, wafer price increases have been limited High-efficiency multi-Si wafers from top-tier manufacturers are expected to reach US$0835/pc However, the acceptable price range for most cell makers is between US$0825/pc and US$083/pc Wafer prices will be eventually decided by the extent of price increase in the raw material and end product markets
Furthermore, mono-Si wafer demand will be linked to the system products that are being developed by wafer manufacturers themselves These projects will be able to consume a part of the overall mono-Si wafer capacity The room for mono-Si wafer process is relatively large, so EnergyTrend predicts that prices will continue to fall in the mono-Si wafer market as to stimulate demand
As for the cell market, demand has been strong for high-efficiency multi-Si products in August, with orders once again going to the second- and third-tier However, module prices have hit the ceiling and there is an excess of cell capacity Consequently, the price uptrend in the August cell market will be limited as well Taiwanese high-efficiency cells is project to rise from US$031~0315/W to US$0313~0318/W, and Chinese high-efficiency cells will rise from US$03~0303/W to US$0303~0306/W With a pending price hike on multi-Si wafers and cell production costs reaching US$030~031/W, a slight increase to cell prices will provide only a limited contribution to cell companies’ margins Thus, the mid-stream of the supply chain is still struggling to maintain profitability
Module prices are stable in the short term as the current mainstream modules have reached 255~260 W in efficiency level Owing to high demand, the vertically integrated top-tier module companies in China will be able to maintain fully booked capacity for at least the next three months Many orders have also be sent to the second- and third-tier module makers, which will keep the market well supplied with their capacities EnergyTrend expects that module prices during August will not increase significantly, and instead the market will have small price fluctuations within a narrow and fixed range
2015/07/09
United States Department of Commerce on July 8 concluded its final ruling of the review of the anti-dumping and countervailing (AD/CVD) measures on certain Chinese photovoltaic (PV) cell imports and ruled to raise the tariff rates set in 2012 This decision will put pressures on Chinese module exporter while giving competitive advantages to Taiwanese companies
“In the future, Chinese and Taiwanese PV companies will need to devise suitable business development plans for them to capitalize on the opportunities in the US market,” said Angus Kao, analyst for EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce
Kao added: “In addition to developing better products with high quality, high efficiency and high margin, PV manufacturers will have to undertake aggressive global expansion such as developing the emerging markets and new export channels These actions may avoid the problem of relying on a single market and reduce the risks from rising tariffs”
According to Kao, the US PV market demand this year is about 95GW, making up 183% of the global PV market demand The US market demand has not been weakened by the ongoing trade dispute with China, but the latest ruling will create immediate difficulties for the US-bound Chinese PV module exports With exception of Yingli’s products, the US-bound modules made with Chinese cells will instantly have their costs raised by 10% or more The prices of PV modules in the US therefore will go up in the short term The price of the US-bound Chinese PV modules is currently around US$061~063/W, and only Yingli among the Chinese manufacturers is able to export at this price range after the new tariff rate is implemented To reduce the impact of the rising tariffs, other Chinese manufacturers will have to export modules made with foreign cells Moreover, they will accelerate transferring their cell and module production to other countries (excluding China and Taiwan) Cell and module plants in these third countries are expected to be built and in operation in the second half of this year, and then Chinese PV companies will export from these countries to the US as to avoid higher tariffs
Some Taiwanese companies will be able to benefit from the latest tariff ruling since it affects China-made products Consequently, the indirect exports of Taiwanese cells to the US will increase in volume According to EnergyTrend’s estimation, the module production cost in third countries is currently US$003~004/W higher than in China With the latest change in tariff rates, modules using Taiwanese manufacturer Motech’s cell will cost lower than their counterparts using Chinese cells Even if Motech’s cells surpasses US$033/W, modules that use them will still have room for price increase so Motech’s cell price can continue to grow up
Still, the increases in prices of PV products will eventually hinge on the increase of the module prices in the US If the US market saw a 5% jump in their module prices, then Taiwanese cells would have room for a 3~5% price increase On the other hand, the Chinese companies will accelerate overseas cell and module production in the second half of 2015, and they will be able to export duty-free modules to the US in greater volume The US demand for the modules that use Taiwanese cell will be limited with the falling import costs for PV products
Growing demand for domestic polysilicon will drive prices upward along the Chinese PV industry chain
Since the US has made no concession to China during the AD/CVD investigation, Kao believes the Chinese government will retaliate by conducting a review on Europe and US polysilicon imports Thus, the Chinese custom duties on European and US polysilicon may rise sharply in the near future China will also close the processing trade loophole in August, making European and US polysilicon much more difficult to get into the country Chinese PV companies will switch to domestic polysilicon as a result and fuel domestic polysilicon demand EnergyTrend expects the feedstock prices in the upstream sector of the PV industry to increase gradually
With the domestic demand getting stronger, the first-tier polysilicon manufacturers are expected to raise their quote prices by 05~1% In addition, the combination of the rising polysilicon prices and the peak season has also lifted the quote prices of Chinese Si-wafer Their price increase this month is now at 05% There is a chance that this increase will reach 1%, bringing the Si-wafer price to US$0825 per piece Some quotes from the first-tier wafer manufacturers have already come to US$083 per piece As for the cell industry, high-efficiency multi-Si cells are benefitting from the manufacturers’ high capacity utilization rates and steady purchase orders The first-tier cell manufacturers are nearly fully loaded in their capacities, and those without sufficient capacities are outsourcing their production to consume their production loads Hence, cell prices will continue to rise, with Chinese cells seeing 1% increase to around US$0303/W In sum, rising feedstock prices and strong demands will contribute to additional price increases for cells
The prices of Taiwanese cells will go in a different direction with EnergyTrend anticipating an increase of 2% upward for high-efficiency products Motech’s cells may go over US$033/W as they will have more room for price increase after the AD/CVD review After the Chinese companies have established additional capacities in foreign countries and start exporting from there to the US, the module prices in the US may also drop This in turn will push down the cell prices in countries besides China and Taiwan
2015/06/18
The latest photovoltaic (PV) price update by EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, shows the downstream sector of the industry has been seeing brisk orders since the start of June Stock up demands for this month also starts to pick up following this turnaround
“In China, domestically produced polysilicon has reached a low of 113~115 yuan RMB per kilogram in June because of the excess stock in the market,” said Angus Kao, analyst for EnergyTrend “The import prices for polysilicon in China are actually lower and this causes additional price declines for domestic polysilicon While the average selling price is still above production costs, manufacturers also have to contend with other costs, including inventory and operation A huge pressure is on them because they cannot stay profitable unless they have achieved a sufficient scale of production”
Consequently, polysilicon manufacturers are considering investing in PV system projects in the downstream sector in order to expand the client base Some companies plan to build ground-mounted systems on lands that are originally set aside for plant expansion Others intend to create a power plant company in the second half of this year, so they can attract capital for PV power plant projects and capacity expansion of polysilicon Numerous Chinese polysilicon manufacturers presently have a department dedicated to the development of PV power plants All these indicate that controlling the end market has become more important than capacity expansion
Si wafer prices generally remained flat towards the end of May, but the situation has changed since June Mono-Si manufacturers that have started to work on power plant projects in the downstream sector are seeing some early benefits Their oversupply problem has been moderated, with the average price drop-off shrinking from 57% in the first quarter to about 1% in May For the multi-Si wafer manufacturers, those at the first tier are better at filling their capacities and their priorities have been on supplying long-term clients The second-tier manufacturers are raising their capacity utilization rates by both taking orders from the first-tier companies and spot trading They generally are still having excess capacities, however, and multi-Si wafer prices are kept low as a result On the whole, Si wafer manufacturers are reacting to the oversupply of polysilicon that caused price declines in the previous quarter The slide in prices may be halted if the downstream sector are able to offer constant demands from June onwards EnergyTrend estimates the average price of multi-Si wafers in June will be around US$080~081 per piece
In the downstream sector, the prices of high-efficiency multi-Si cells stopped their decline in mid-May and started to rebound at the beginning of June due to the market turnaround Manufacturers at the first tier were the first to raise prices Overall, the prices for PV cells are rising and the market will continue to grow stronger The current upswing is due to the fact that the 260W modules are becoming more mainstream, and this spurs the demands for cells of higher efficiency The arrival of the peak season also gives a boost to the entire market According to EnergyTrend, the average price of high-efficiency multi-Si cells will increase to US$031~033 per watt in June However, the actual prices among manufacturers are going to vary according to the quality of their products and tariff rates imposed by the US
The prices of modules have benefitted from the returning orders, and the first-tier manufacturers are fully loaded in their capacities The capacity utilization levels for the second-tier companies are stabilizing owing to the orders from the first tier, though they also sell their own modules The second-tier companies are also starting to expand into the system market because having more sales channels will ensure steady shipments Before their plans fully realized, however, they still have to consider their present shipments and costs The average module price therefore is expected to go up slightly by about 1%, a relatively moderate increase compared with other PV products
2015/05/14
China’s domestic PV demand continues to rise in May Hence, the leading PV companies are now expanding their businesses into the downstream sector, focusing on PV system in particular This in turn drives the capacity expansion efforts along the entire supply chain, according to EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce
EnergyTrend’s analyst Angus Kao said leading, vertically integrated PV companies such as Canadian Solar and Trina are expanding their capacities mainly by outsourcing Their secondary method is to work with medium and small-size manufacturers of cells and modules Investing in their own capacities is considered to be their last resort The leading PV companies are also tightening their hold of the downstream channels by setting up system service companies that would allocate the end demand back to them On the other hand, the system market is also receiving new entrants that aim to capitalize on the future growth of China’s rooftop PV systems They include major Si wafer manufacturers like China-based GCL and LONGi Presently, these players from the Si wafer industry are not only adding their mono- and multi-Si wafer capacities, but they are also taking on many system projects The aggressive expansion into the downstream will secure market shares and channels Moreover, this strategy will reduce risks for the PV solution providers and accelerate their positioning efforts in the market
Many companies have seen positive results of branching out into different business models within the industry However, Kao points out that the fiscal reports show profits for modules have plummeted while the overall revenues have reached record high The industry’s biggest worry right now is still the ongoing price declines in the downstream market due to excess capacities
Cell manufacturers ready to raise their prices as demands return
The spot prices for polysilicon remain weak since China’s polysilicon imports rose in the first quarter, resulting in a glut According to EnergyTrend’s estimation, China has nearly two months’ worth of stock Nevertheless, there is a chance that the reduction of polysilicon stock will accelerate as the leading PV companies are preparing for the coming system projects On the whole, the average polysilicon spot price for May is projected to be within the range of US$15-16/kg
Si wafer prices are expected to fall in May, with the high-efficiency multi-Si wafers to be around US$080-081/pc Falling polysilicon prices and calls from clients (who have experienced losses) have pushed down the prices for multi-Si wafers The prices for mono-Si wafers also continue to fall in correlation with polysilicon prices and lack of visible rise in demand Currently, the leading PV companies are the main support of the Si wafer demands, albeit indirectly by outsourcing cell manufacturing for their system integration projects
PV cell manufacturers, which have seen fiscal losses, are also ready to raise their prices in anticipation of the returning demands Cell manufacturers will likely to increase product prices to the point where they are able to recover cash costs The average price in May for high-efficiency multi-Si cells from China and Taiwan will hold steady around US$0295-031/w However, multi-Si cells outside of this category have seen their demands dropping steadily this month Their average price will fluctuate narrowly in the low range of US$028-029/w
Prices stay relatively stable in the PV module market The top-tier module makers are nearly loaded in their capacities and are sending orders to the second- and third-tier manufacturers Thus, module prices for May will be not much different from April and any changes will be mainly linked to the prices of polysilicon, Si wafers and PV cells
2015/04/09
A recent study by the International Energy Agency states that the Asia-Pacific region ranks in first place in the amount of PV system installed for two years in a row EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, projects that the total amount of PV installed worldwide in 2015 will reach 514GW in its newest PV Gold Report The same report also predicts Asia-Pacific will continue to be ahead of other regions in the amount of PV installed in 2015, accounting for 60% and above globally China in particular will represent 35% of world’s PV market with its estimated installed capacity at 178GW In sum, demands in China exert a lot of influence on the price movements in the PV industry
EnergyTrend’s analyst Angus Kao said that in the second quarter, demands in China’s PV market have stabilized and there are signs that indicate the general decline in prices will end Furthermore, the amount of orders for the downstream sector has picked up since the start of April, and the noticeable increases in orders also signal a stronger drive for downstream companies to stock up There is a visible rise in the demand for high-efficiency products, now representing approximately 50% or more of the total PV market demand Moreover, multi-Si cells with 178% efficiency have become the mainstream in the second quarter
EnergyTrend’s research indicates the prices of polysilicon are unlikely to rise in the second quarter, and demands will determine whether the prices will stabilize or keep falling This is because polysilicon manufacturers in the upstream sector have overcome their respective production bottleneck and will be expanding their capacities, thus making the feedstock plentiful
With polysilicon abundant, demands for wafers of high quality from the downstream sector in the second quarter are stronger than the first The prices for wafers will be determined by whether the prices for polysilicon will continue to fall Spot prices for polysilicon and wafer in March have dropped to levels not seen since Europe implemented tariffs on PV imports in 2011 and the US taking similar measures in 2012 Wafer manufactures thus hope prices will stabilize as demands pick up Presently, the declines in multi-Si wafers are starting to ease
Cell manufacturers in the second quarter are still watching the market, so they are unwilling to slash their prices The recent spot market for PV cells will therefore show some narrow price fluctuations With feed-in tariff programs around the world becoming more well-defined, the uncertainties that companies in the downstream sector face have been significantly reduced This will also create observable demands for PV cells as well as boosting the capacity utilization rates for all parts of the supply chain The PV cell prices may stop falling at the same time of returning demands, but chances of prices going up will depend on the rate of demand and the situation with getting rid of excess capacity
As for PV module prices, they vary according to manufacturers Prices are relatively stable for manufacturers that have downstream businesses operations (ie running PV systems) because they have reliable distribution channels Those companies that only make and sell PV modules will have to compete for projects in a market that has an abundant supply They will face the downward pressure on module prices
