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keyword：Angus Kao，
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2015/03/20
China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) announced on March 16 that it has revised the country’s overall PV installation target from the original 15GW to 178GW Additionally, the government will increase its efforts to supervise closely on the previous year’s projects that are unfinished and ongoing The government has also taken further steps to loosen the regulatory control over the installations of rooftop solar systems
China’s production of PV modules reached 35GW in 2014, according to Angus Kao, analyst for EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce Out of the total PV module production in 2014, 60% went to and relied on exports Furthermore, top ten domestic PV module manufacturers in China accounted for 56% of the production and had the capacity utilization rate of close to 90% For module manufacturers with less than 500 MW in terms of production scale, however, their average production utilization rate reached a low of 72% Kao stated that the NEA’s big raise in the installed capacity target can provide immediate relief for Chinese module makers affected by excess capacities and tariff duties levied by importing countries Nonetheless, Kao believes the rapid expansion of PV module manufacturing in China in the last few years has led to products varied widely in quality and price wars The NEA’s target therefore will not improve the industry’s situation on the whole “The policy’s main beneficiaries will be manufacturers with sound financial health and strong technological advantages,” said Kao, “so the industry will enter its integration stage where only the fittest will survive”
The current survey of the market and supply chain shows high inventory levels in the upstream sector and the reduction of stocks is slower than anticipated Clients from Europe and Japan are delaying placing orders and deliveries because of the depreciation of their currencies, thus lowering the number of visible orders The manufacturers in the downstream sector have slowed down in their purchases since the start of March, reflecting fewer-than-expected orders at their end as well Most manufacturers are cautious on their assessments for April’s incoming orders As a result, prices along the entire PV supply chain so far have kept a downward trend However, Kao anticipates that China’s internal demands will be stimulated by NEA’s announcement, causing orders to return and prices to stop falling and stabilize in both the upstream and downstream sector
2015/03/06
On Feb24th, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry announced it will make a substantial cut to the PV rate in its feed-in tariff (FiT) program for renewable energies The rate of return for the PV system as a whole has also been revised significantly downward This in turn seriously affects Japan’s 2015 PV market, which is projected to shrink perhaps by 20% This will naturally add uncertainties to the global market The 2015 PV EXPO, which took place in Tokyo during the final week of February, reflected the shift in the market towards residential applications, including high-efficiency modules and storage systems for home use As FiT programs around the world are seeing a rate reduction, end users will base their decisions on unit cost It is expected that low-cost systems will become mainstream this year High-efficiency PV products on the other hand will require practical solutions that reduce system installation and labor costs in order to become more attractive
Angus Kao, an anlayst of EnergyTrend of TrendForce, said the development in the global PV market will likely resemble Japan, and the entire supply chain will see some volatility in the market during March “Orders are returning, but the market will not completely turnaround,” Kao added, “and the average spot prices for PV products will keep going down because the upstream inventories are still plentiful”
As for polysilicon, most plants began work on schedule However, downstream manufacturers officially began work in turn on Mar2nd and after Moreover, most of the present dealings involve getting rid of the existing inventories, so spot trading is expected to be light Non-Chinese polysilicon manufacturers have piled up stocks during Chinese New Year holidays, so their average spot price has bigger drop-off range and is projected to arrive at US$165/kg The price for Chinese polysilicon is generally flat because there is still a sizable existing stock Until it is used up, the price for Chinese polysilicon is unlikely to go up The price for polysilicon in March is estimated to be in the range of US$16-19/kg
The price for wafers has come out flat as well, with wafers from the first-tier manufacturers staying at around US$086-087/pc The first-tier manufacturers are still expecting that the price will eventually be kept at US$087/pc or above For the second and third-tier manufacturers, however, they are seeing their wafer price falling to US$085/pc because demands have yet to return If the second and third-tier manufacturers continue to slash their prices in order to grab more orders and make profit from quick turnover, then the average wafer price is likely to gradually fall in March
Regarding the price of PV cells, it will experience a small fluctuation The first-tier manufacturers have already received their orders before Chinese New Year The second-tier manufacturers on the other hand began work later, so they are just now starting production one by one Demands from Japan are returning and manufacturers dedicated to this market have done well in terms of incoming orders Orders from other markets, however, are still unconfirmed, and this is affecting both production and price Quote prices are set to remain weak EnergyTrend projects that the price of high-efficiency multi-Si cells will be around US$032-033/w The price for Taiwanese multi-Si cells will fall to US$030-031/W, while the price for the Chinese counterparts will fall to US$029-030/W
As for PV modules, most manufacturers have kept a normal level The number of completed system installations in China last year was lower than expected The manufacturers will continue working on unfinished installations of ground-mounted systems as well as taking on new projects Furthermore, this year’s market projections for commercial and residential rooftop systems has been positive On the whole, the general market outlook for PV modules is optimistic On another note, high-efficiency modules from mainstream brands are now capable of reaching 260-270W range for multi-Si and 275-285W for mono-Si in terms of output Modules with an output of 300W and over were also revealed at the PV EXPO Kao believes that with the mass production of high-efficiency modules becoming steady and regular, it will take about six months for a generation change High-efficiency modules will see their prices stabilize as they replace the older 250-255W modules Their prices in the near future might also even be slightly lower than their current prices Low-efficiency modules by contrast will see their prices fall as they are being phased out from the market
2015/02/05
Due to increases in both shipments and conversion efficiency, Taiwanese PV cell makers experienced a record shipment growth in 2014, according to the latest report by EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce This growth was in spite of being under the anti-dumping and countervailing investigation by the United States International Trade Commission (referred to here as the USITC) during the year The shipments of Taiwanese PV cell makers in 2014 had an increase of 20% compared with the previous year, officially breaking the 10GW ceiling and setting a new all-time high
NSP’s shipments soared ahead of Motech in 2014, thus clearly demonstrating its expanded production capacity after its merger NSP became the leader among Taiwanese PV cell manufacturers in 2014, accounting for 22% of the total annual shipments Motech and Gintech follow closely with 16% and 15% shipment shares respectively Overall, the three leading Taiwanese firms made up 53% of the total shipments However, anticipate changes in 2015 when Motech’s merger of Topcell will be finalized by the end of June Motech’s post-merger production capacity is estimated to reach 3GW, giving it the opportunity to retake the number one position
EnergyTrend’s analyst Angus Kao pointed out two significant challenges facing Taiwanese solar firms in 2015 The first challenge is the anti-dumping and countervailing duties against Chinese imports and the anti-dumping duties against Taiwanese imports following the USITC’s vote on Jan 21st Major Chinese PV module manufacturers will be compelled to choose Chinese cells instead of the Taiwanese since the tariff rates set against the former are lower As a result, orders from China will therefore fall drastically The second challenge is demands from European and Japanese clients to have prices lowered in response to the steep depreciation of the euro and yen Taiwanese PV cells going to those markets will face considerable price pressure in the future
A survey of orders received from January to February indicates that Taiwanese firms experienced only a slight decrease in exports because of demands from Japan and the need to stock up before the Chinese New Year holidays After March, however, the Taiwanese PV cell makers will feel the effects of reduced exports to US Also, they will be moving their production lines overseas Therefore, shipments will be negatively and significantly impacted Following the third quarter, it is likely that Taiwanese firms will be able to reestablish connection with the United States when they have finished with their relocation By then, the established peak season will also return along with rising demands from Europe, America, Japan and China PV cell shipments from Taiwan will likely to enjoy a resurgence during that period
“Global solar installations are gradually moving away from the large, ground-mounted PV systems for power plants to commercial applications and solar roof panels for homes,” Kao further noted, “and for that reason Taiwanese PV companies need to improve PV cells’ conversion efficiency” At the same time, Taiwanese cell makers should bolster their mono-Si cell production capacities in order to match the production of modules with higher wattages and the shift towards niche end markets Taiwanese firms also have other urgent matters to address in addition to increasing battery efficiency These include creating a business model beyond just making and selling PV cells as well as developing new sales channels and markets
2015/01/08
EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce, expects the overall PV market price in the first quarter of 2015 to remain constant until the end of the Chinese New Year Afterwards, shipment demand will decrease and the price will drop The beginning of holiday season in China meets the end of the holiday season in the US and Europe, and this means that there is a reduction of working hours in China happening at the same time with a return of purchase orders from the US and Europe Also, the market demand is expected to grow as domestic demand in China picks up and Japanese firms in downstream sector are stocking up materials before the end of their fiscal year
Angus Kao, analyst at EnergyTrend, indicated that the price of Chinese polysilicon in the short term will be sustained as China is ending the processing trade of polysilicon from the US and Korea However, price hike will not occur soon since China imported a vast quantity of polysilicon last year It will take at least one to two months to exhaust China’s huge stock Even with the new productions in the coming quarters, the chance of material price increase depends on favorable policy changes and depletion of inventory With all factors considered, EnergyTrend predicts that the spot price for polysilicon will remain the same until the end of the Chinese New Year, with a minor drop afterwards and spot price is expected to stay between US $18-20/kg
Kao stated that with polysilicon supply being plentiful and high-efficiency multi-Si wafers being the chief demand of downstream firms, the key influence behind the price of wafers in this quarter will be technical capabilities The first-tier manufacturers will maintain their prices either by launching a newer generation of multi-Si wafers or increases the efficiency of existing models to response to the market trends Those manufacturers that can provide higher efficiency’s products will be able to keep their prices, those that cannot will have to slash their prices to increase sales EnergyTrend anticipates that the overall price will remain stable, fluctuating between US$088-090/pc The price for mono-Si wafer has yet to recover from its sluggish state Expect them to move slowly downward
The uncertainty caused by the US Department of Commerce’s recent decision on the 2014 US anti-dumping and countervailing case, meant the China is still the largest market for Taiwanese solar cell manufacturers, followed by Europe and Japan Hence, the price depression of Taiwanese solar cells will continue EnergyTrend projects that Taiwanese solar cells, including high-efficiency multi-Si cells, will face a gradual price drop, with the average price between US $032-0325/W Any significant price fluctuations will be dependent on the final outcome of the 2014 US anti-dumping and countervailing investigations
Due to the US Department of Commerce’s favorable administrative review of 2012 anti-dumping and countervailing case, solar cell prices will also remain flat and constant for the first-tier manufacturers in China as they will be receiving most of the orders Anticipate a slight and gradual price decrease after the Chinese New Year because of the weakening demand The US policy is less effective against the fragmented downstream market in demand of high-efficiency multi-Si solar cells
The orders for solar modules will concentrate on the first-tier manufacturers in China, filling their production capacities This again is because of the decision of the US Department of Commerce that allows Chinese solar cell and module makers to export at a lower rate The impact of foreign modules on the US market is significant as the unit price will suffer a drop greater than 5% Nonetheless, other regions will not be affected and they will maintain their price stability
The module prices for the second-tier, OEM manufacturers, in contrast, are expected to lower as orders are going to major, first-tier brand manufacturers EnergyTrend anticipates a trend in greater price differentiation between first-tier and second-tier solar modules in the future
2014/12/25
The global demand is expected to reach 514GW in 2015, with an annual demand growth rate of 165% and an increased installation of 7GW compared to 2014, according to EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce In terms of the supply end, the Chinese makers has announced to expand production capacity in 2015, with an increase of 42GW in module production capacity, taking up 82% of the worldwide demand; non-Chinese module makers will increase production capacity by 11GW, which is approximately 2% of the worldwide demand
Angus Kao, analyst at EnergyTrend, indicates that in 2015, the majority of the solar makers will be expanding production capacity in a more rational manner; the increased production capacity will mainly be on par with the increased demands However, the trend that the bigger players will remain strong has already emerged In addition to the existing production advantage, the bigger makers also have international level of brand management, with higher brand recognition Therefore, the future key to winning the market will depend on who can first complete the global strategic planning, diversifying to minimize the risk, and strengthen the technology and quality, enter the PV system business, and make use of the sales channel advantages
Angus Kao further indicates that, due to the new US anti-dumping and countervailing duties final ruling, it is expected to accelerate the new module plant establishment in various countries in Southeast Asia A projected new production capacity of 1GW or more in this area is also expected, and this is another focal point to look out for in the future
This week’s spot-market prices
Due to China’s increased import volume and also affected by the sufficient stocking, polysilicon prices remain weak, falling at 149%, and the average price fell to US$198/kg As for the wafers, due to the continue falling prices for the upstream multi-si raw material, the wafer prices have began to be affected High efficiency multi-si wafer and mono-si wafers both fell slightly by 044%, and the spot prices are US$0901/pc and US$114/pc, respectively As for the solar cells, since there are no other policy factors affecting the price, the deep price plunge is looking back up, the solar cell price quotes are generally rising In addition to the effect of next year’s mainstream specifications for modules are rising to 260W, the high efficiency solar cells are clearly going strong, with a spot price increase of 09%, and the average price hits US$0335/w
In terms of the modules, since the multi-si module product’s main stream specifications are going to be increased to 260-265W, along with no expected factors pushing for large scale price increase, the 250-255W module price dropped slightly by 035%, with an average price of US$0573/w Due to the US and European holidays and weather factors, Mono-si modules orders decreased, with a mild price drop of 031% this week
