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Keyword：Avril Wu，
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2013/10/02
According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, the future DRAM contract prices are expected to trend upwards due to the production shortages resulting from the Wuxi plant's fire accident and the uncertainties surrounding its recovery period The price uptrend is expected to persist in spite of the economic downturn and the market's underwhelming peak quarter performances
In the periods following the Wuxi plant's fire incident, numerous relevant parties from within the industry have indicated that the pricing quotes are unlikely to be provided during 1H'September and that the movements of the contract prices will only become apparent following the mid-Autumn festival The agreed mainstream 4GB prices have so far risen by as much as 1429% to approximately $US 32, and are on average maintained at around the $US 30 mark A few of the module supplies from the PC-OEMs could be obtained at $US 29 given the quarterly deals that had been settled in Q3 Throughout October and November, TrendForce projects the price increases will be more significant as the details concerning SK Hynix's fire accident are clarified and as the manufacturers' inventories drop more noticeably
Based on the average $US 30 price for the 4GB modules, the average 4Gb price is estimated to be around $US 344, which is 20% lower than the $US 41 price in the spot market With the differences between the contract and spot prices likely to gradually become smaller, the contract module prices have a good shot of eventually approaching the US$ 35 mark
Looking at the PC OEMs' inventory situation, even though most of their DRAM inventory has remained high during the beginning of September —with some ranging from 4 weeks to 2 months— their module inventories are noticeably getting lower In order to avoid the potential supply restrictions resulting from the fire accident, more and more buyers are beginning to intensify their inventory replenishment efforts The fire incident, on the whole, appears to have affected not only the prices of PC DRAM, but also those of graphics and server DRAM, both of which are likely to exhibit a 20% increase in Q4 The 2013 DRAM industry revenue is expected to rise by approximately 40% as the growth prospects of the Q4 prices become stronger Along with the tightened supply situation, all of the aforementioned developments are expected to contribute to months of further price increases and allow relevant manufacturers to benefit, according to TrendForce’s assistant vice president, Avril Wu
2013/08/29
According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, due to the memory price drops and the shrinking spot market, the 2012 global module revenues reached $US 55 billion, a 13% decrease from 2011's $US 63 billion The top five module manufacturers account for approximately 75% of the market's total revenue, whereas the top ten represent 90% While Kingston is still sitting comfortably at the top of the list, its revenues have slid by an estimated 12% Ramaxel and Smart Modular, which are in second and third place, respectively, saw their revenues dip 14% and 3% TrendForce believes that the sliding revenue figures do not represent weakened competitiveness, but rather a shift of focus towards new product lines The entire module industry, as such, is expected to be a lot more diversified and varied in the future
On the whole, 2012 could be said to be a particularly difficult year for the DRAM market; the PC shipments had declined by nearly 6% compared to the year before, whereas the DDR3 2Gb price tumbled from a high of $US 117 to $US 082, a 30% decrease Various major events—for instance, Micron's decision in May to merge with Elpida—also impacted the entire industry considerably Luckily, with the growing success of the smartphone and tablet businesses, an increasing number of first tier DRAM manufacturers have switched their attention from PC DRAM to mobile DRAM, causing the supplies of the former to shrink noticeably in 2H12 and the Q4 DRAM prices to rise However, due to the three quarters' worth of price drops experienced by the DRAM industry, the gradually shrinking spot market, and the diversification of the module manufacturers' product lines (which no longer made DRAM a major source of revenue), the 2012 module revenue figures still turned out to be relatively weak
While Kingston still holds the top spot in the 2012 rankings, its declining status in the channel market is no longer disputed At present, nearly 70% of the company's revenues are derived from PC-OEMs Its mobile eMCP product, on the other hand, is still only perceived to be a work in progress Ramaxel, whose status benefited significantly from the rising shipments of its largest client, Lenovo, saw only a 14% drop in revenue in 2012 For Smart Modular, given the improving state of its foundry business and the progresses made in the South American market, the company’s revenue decreased by only 2% last year, allowing it to rise to the third spot Looking over to the Taiwanese module manufacturers, A-DATA's position has slid from the third to fourth spot following the changes implemented in its product mix, but still managed to become the most successful module maker in Taiwan Transcend ended up being the only DRAM manufacturer in 2012 to actually show positive revenue growth, thanks to the sales of its industry standard memory products
Looking at 2013, with Micron officially merging with Elpida, and with Taiwanese DRAM manufacturers either exiting the market altogether or resorting to the foundry business route, it's safe to say that the DRAM market has officially transformed into an oligopoly A good number of major challenges, henceforth, can be expected on the supply side Given that the spot market is gradually becoming smaller and that Ultralike products are stimulating demand for on-board chip solutions, advancements in the area of DRAM storage capacity are also expected to be limited Other than strengthening their relationship with PC-OEMs, more and more first tier manufacturers will be seeking to enter into the highly profitable industry-based and military-grade SSD markets Such course of action will lead to increased Flash production ratio and ensure survival in a market that is becoming increasingly more diverse
2013/08/23
According to DRAMeXchange, a division of global market research firm TrendForce, notebook shipments have taken a hit since the introduction of Apple’s iPad The portability of light, thin tablet devices has severely impacted the notebook market Notebook vendors fought back with ultrabooks and ultra-like devices that adhered to strict thickness, weight, and battery life standards, but to this day most manufacturers are still working on improving ultrabook specifications The use of onboard chips in the thin and light devices are good news for ultrabook makers, who save on module cost, but not so advantageous for the DRAM industry – module makers and spot market suppliers in particular TrendForce estimates ultra-like devices will represent 20% of notebook shipments by the end of the year, becoming the market mainstream by 2016
On board Chips Replace Traditional Modules, Memory Makers Affected
The rise of ultra-like notebooks has caused a change on the memory market – the thin-and-light trend is here to stay, and device makers are forgoing the DIMM architecture of traditional memory modules for onboard chips However, as onboard DRAM cannot be swapped out if damaged, highly reliable chips are necessary for ultra-like notebooks This requirement affects DRAM module makers significantly – demand for onboard chips is up, and makers are decreasing supply to PC OEMs Furthermore, as ultrabook memory cannot be swapped, the channel market which module makers rely on for business is shrinking and profits are going to upstream suppliers As ultrabooks become increasingly mainstream, module manufacturers will continue to see revenue and profit margins decline
Mobile DRAM Benefits from Ultrabook Low-Power Needs
Ultra-like notebook makers are also dumping commodity DRAM in favor of mobile DRAM, for its lower power consumption Intel’s new Haswell chipset, for instance, supports mobile memory, giving ultrabooks significantly longer battery life The latest MacBook Air model is another example – with LPDDR3, it boasts a battery life of 12 hours As various PC OEMs have notebooks with LPDDR3 coming out in the second half of the year, it is clear that ultra-like devices will boost mobile DRAM consumption, pushing memory makers to produce more mobile memory and less commodity DRAM TrendForce expects that after onboard chip solutions become the standard, the DRAM industry will see significant change – DRAM manufacturers will benefit, while module makers and spot market suppliers will be negatively affected
