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Keyword：Burrell Liu，
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2014/09/04
Global demand for LCD TV panels this year is beating analysts’ forecasts according to WitsView, a subsidiary of the Taiwan-based market intelligence firm TrendForce In September, prices for medium and large-size panels including the 32”W, 39”W and 395”W as well as semi-finished products continued to rise on month to $1-$2 Prices for the 40" W and 42 "W stayed flat by contrast, although some customers accepted a $1 price hike for the 40”W The 48”W and 50"W models continued to rise around $1-$2 each Prices for the 55"W were unchanged Monitor panels 19" W and 195"W saw further price hikes of $03-$05 due to a shortage of two different types of panels Given robust demand, the supply crunch is expected to last for the remainder of the year Meanwhile, prices for other sizes are staying relatively flat, rising just $01-$02 156”W wedge and flat notebook panels increased slightly $03-$05 while 140"W wedge and flat rose $02 Lastly, 116"W, 133"W and 173"W did not change
“With China’s October 1 National Day holiday sales promotions going on, as well as Singles Day and Black Friday, LCD TV panel demand is more robust than expected,” said Burrell Liu, a research associate at WitsView During this year's five-week promotional period (September 1-9 and 14; September 22-October 12), overall LCD TV panel sales will grow 42%, as Chinese producers only reached 38-40% of their full-year shipment targets in the first half and are thus motivated to accelerate their efforts to meet domestic shipment goals in the second half, Liu added In addition, due to product differentiation strategies and limited panel supply from Samsung and LG Electronics, demand from the Korean electronics giants remains very strong for the 50”W Thus, Chinese and Korean producers may drive panel sales to a second crescendo this year At the same time, producers will continue to launch high color saturation and resolution products, Curve TV and the 43"W in an effort to maintain full production capacity
Tablet panel demand could fall for the first time this year as tablets face fierce competition from small notebook PCs and phablets (large-screen smartphones) In China, 4G subsidies will replace 3G subsidies as consumers eagerly await the release of the iPhone 6, impacting smartphone panel demand and brand strategies for panel procurement
Small and medium-size panel production is gradually refocusing on monitor and notebook applications, while the peak sales season is drawing to a close As a result, IT panel prices may change significantly after October That would be the first major movement in prices this year
WitsView raised its 2014 LCD TV shipments forecast to 2125 million units, a 42% increase over the previous year, for a number of reasons Those reasons include the high profits some brands are enjoying from the sales of small TVs, the rising preference for plasma display panels, the Mexican government providing subsidies to domestic producers and Chinese brands aggressively targeting the North American market for the first time
With many different market players competing for panel market share, a tension exists between supply and demand Meanwhile, Korean and Chinese producers, which together hold 70% of the global panel market, have driven up panel prices since March TrendForce advises market observers to closely watch market developments for the remainder of the year to see if panel prices peak for a second time
2014/07/08
Global LCD TV shipments in 2014 are expected to reach 2108 million, up 32% year-on-year, according to WitsView, a subsidiary of Taiwan-based market intelligence firm TrendForce Vendors’ inventories are currently healthy and Chinese vendors in particular are looking to expand their shipments in markets abroad by bumping up competition during Black Friday in the USA LCD TV demand in China is also increasing in preparation for the October 1 holiday period, which means that oversupply is unlikely to occur in the short term WitsView Research Director Burrell Liu noted, “TV panel pricing is expected to remain flat or increase throughout August into September but this is still yet to be fully determined, as end sales performance and whether vendors’ inventories are piling up will still all make a difference The same will apply to notebook and monitor panels”
Monitor and notebook panels are expected to remain in tight supply as makers are preparing for the busy season in the LCD TV industry Additionally, demand for monitor and notebook PC bundles increased as vendors pushed such packages due to discontinuation of Windows XP, which holds a 25-30% proportion globally and 50% in China Microsoft is also offering AIO deals as well as low-priced notebook subsidies, added Liu
In June, inventories for the top six LCD TV vendors in China reached 52 weeks while Samsung Electronics, LG Electronics and Sony have panel inventories for about 35 weeks, showing there is still room for vendors to have backup panel supply In terms of Ultra HD (4K) panels, they are now priced only 12-135 times more than Full HD panels, which may drop even further and prompt more sales in end markets WitsView said it believes the penetration rate for 4K TVs will reach 55-6% in 2014
Pricing for monitor and notebook panels in July 2014
Prices of LCD TV panels for 32 to 42 inches and semi-finished products will raise US$ 1 in July, while panels sized 46-, 48- and 50-inch will raise US$ 1-2 55-inch panel pricing is expected to remain flat Moreover, pricing for monitor panels sized 185W and 27W inches will remain flat while 19W and 195W inch units are expected to increase US$ 1-15 20W panel pricing is expected to increase US$ 02-03 due to orders for 195W panels shifting to 20W units and becuase orders from vendors in the USA and Europe are increasing Panels sized 215W, 23W, 236W and 24W inches are expected to increase US$ 05-1 In terms of notebook panels, 156-inch Wedge and Flat panels are expected to increase US$1-13 while 14-inch units are expected to increase US$04-06, and for 116-, 133- and 173-inch units are remaining flat
Table 1: Panel pricing predictions for July, 2014
Source: WitsView
2014/05/21
Replacement of PDP and Demand for Small TVs Lift LCD TV Demand and Panel Prices, says TrendForce
The 32W-42W panel prices climb USD 1-2 in May 2014, the 46W and 48W see price increases USD 1-3, and the 50W and 55W prices are on par for the first time with some clients even accepting price increases, according to the latest survey by WitsView, the display research division of TrendForce
As for the monitor panel prices, due to the constrained capacity, the 185W, 20W and 27W show on-par prices, the 19W panel sees USD 1 price increase, the 195W and 215W prices climb slightly USD 03-05 The price increases for 23W, 236W, and 24W are around USD 05-1
In terms of NB panel prices, the 156”Wedge and FLAT have USD 05-1 price increases, and even USD 1-3 price increase for the additional procurement The 140W Wedge and Flat prices climb slightly USD 02-05, the 173W price at least stays on par, and the 116W and 133W prices remain on par
“As the LCD TV panel demand is stronger than expected, and mid-and small-sized products share the G5 capacity, along with the subsidy policy on AIO models (mainly 195W) and the spec and product shifts, the monitor capacity is constantly constrained,” says WitsView Research Director Burrell Liu “Microsoft’s subsidy policy on low-priced NB under USD 249 propels the demand for 156W NBs With the economic recovery in Europe and the US, the demands for mid-range 156W and 140W NBs heat up WitsView projects the NB panel price in Q2 to stay on par or climb slightly as international brands’ demand for smart phones grows and squeezes some of NB panel capacity”
Some good news is also heard in the TV market, and thanks to the PDP TV demand replaced by LCD TVs and Mexico’s official subsidy on small 236W TVs, the LCD TV shipment in this year is likely to top the previous projection, 2091 M units On the other hand, Chinese top six brands’ average inventory is only 47 weeks after Labor Day and they potentially show explosive growth in panel replenishment in the months to come with the healthy inventory level and the ambition to reach the annual shipment target in H2’14
Meanwhile, panel makers are preparing for the market of H2’14 and emphasize on product developments, including new sizes, curved TV panels, 4K2K products, large sizes, chopper process, and OLED The product diversification is beneficial to maintain the full capacity through Q3, while the capacity waste and capacity squeeze accompanying with lower yield caused by the new products are also crucial to adjust the supply end and make the supply of certain panels and sizes relatively tight
2014/05/13
The sales result for the Labor Day holidays in China was weaker than previous projections, reaching a total of 3738 million units and declining 102% YoY during the three weeks around Labor Day holidays, , according to WitsView, the display research division of TrendForce, and Σintell Chinese brands’ inventory only rose slightly to 47 weeks During Labor Day week, international brands’ sales performed well while Chinese top six brands showed a decline of 13% From t2H2013, the ratio of 3D LCD TV has been dropping gradually with the penetration rate declining to below 30% during the Labor Day Holidays, while the UD LCD TV penetration rate surpassed 10% for the first time, with a sales volume of 422 million units
“As the appliance-going-to-countryside policy and subsidy measures ended, the holiday sales in China start to see unpleasant drops,” (see graph 1) WitsView Research Director Burrell Liu says ” The lower-than-expected sales drop during Labor Day Holidays was due to last year’s final shipment peak bolstered by the subsidy policy In addition, consumers hold a wait-and-see attitude on prices and promotions, compounded with the anticipation of Chinese National Day Holidays in October, resulting in lower Labor Day Holiday sales”
Nonetheless, the average inventory remains healthy, and Chinese brands hold advantages to restock panels in the next few months The upcoming FIFA World Cup Games boosted the top six brands’ oversea shipment to 759 million units in 1H2014, with the export taking up 30% of total shipment The total export shipment is expected to increase by 12% for the entire year Chinese top six brands’ domestic shipment in 1H2014 accounts for 38-40% of the entire-year sales, reaching 172 million units Consequently, major Chinese brands are expected to be more aggressive in reaching the annual shipment goal in 2H 2014
The Chinese LED TV market’s focus has shifted from LED and 3D to UD products this year This is an indication that the 3D models have cooled down with a weakening penetration rate Meanwhile, UD products enjoy a rising penetration rate with lowered set prices The UD-product shipment in China is projected to reach 85 million in 2014 with only 19% penetration rate, while the curved TV models penetration rate is projected to drop below 1%
Witsview indicates that the end inventory is very healthy, and the two Korean LCD TV brands actively distribute goods and propel the entire LCD TV market for full offense Moreover, panel makers are agile in allocating the capacities and reshuffling the product spec, allowing most LCD TV panel prices to increase instead of decreasing In addition, LCD TV demand has replaced some demand for PDP TV, and with the stronger-than-expected demand for medium and small-sized TVs, the overall demand for LCD TV panels and sets are expected to grow
Despite of the weak Labor Day Holiday sales, the inventory remains healthy Chinese brands will actively boost the domestic sales in 2H2014 and aggressively prepare for the inventory The tight supply for some sizes will continue through Q3, and it is critical to observe global end sales and inventory along with the two Korean makers’ attitude in June and July
2014/05/07
Taiwanese LCD TV SI makers’ shipment reached 761 M units in Q1 2014, declining by 259% QoQ and growing by 19% YoY, exhibiting stronger than expected despite of the shipment declines, based on the latest survey by WitsView, the display research division of TrendForce
The elevated shipment was mainly attributed to the healthy inventory and the fact that brands are starting to release orders and to distribute goods in March The Q2 shipment significantly hinges upon brands’ rising orders and sufficient panel supply in April WitsView projects a Taiwanese LCD TV SI maker shipment of 10 M units for Q2, growing by 314% QoQ
“With the support of from the “appliance-going-to-countryside” policy and subsidy measures, the global share of LCD TV demand in China in 2013 reached 24%, says WitsView Research Director Burrell Liu “It propels the emergence of local LCD TV SI makers in China, which in turn establishment of sale outlets for the domestic white-box makers and the overseas orders”
Chinese LCD TV SI maker leaders - HKC, BMTC and Kangguan - all project to produce 45M-55M units this year In particular, as the world’s No7 LCD monitor SI maker, HKC produces 45M units per year, completely unaffected by the global LCD demand bottleneck The top Chinese SI makers’ share remained around 4-6% before 2011, rose to 9-10% in 2012, and officially reached 12% in 2013 It is projected to stay around 12-13% this year
On the other hand, Taiwan-based LCD TV makers’ share has fallen from 221% in 2011 to 176% in 2013 Despite maintaining a flat shipment or slight growth this year, they are still projected to lose the earlier advantages “Taiwanese LCD TV SI makers’ order is projected to reach 37-38 M units in 2014, growing by 4-6% YoY However, whether or not Taiwanese SI makers would benefit from the PDP replacement sales and demand for mid-and small-sized TVs remains to be seen,” indicates Liu
