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2021/11/22
Quarterly TV shipment for 3Q21 reached 5251 million units, representing an 83% QoQ increase but a 147% YoY decrease, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations Demand for TVs was constrained during the quarter by the increase in various country’s vaccination rates as well as the rising retail prices of TV sets, resulting in a YoY shipment decline despite the arrival of the peak season It should be noted that prices of TV panels began to plummet in August, and this price drop enabled Chinese TV brands to both expand sales during the Singles’ Day (November 11) shopping festival and in turn make up for deficits in their yearly sales targets Global brands, on the other hand, will be unable to capitalize on the price drop of TV panels by reflecting this cost-savings on their TV sets’ retail prices until 1Q22 due to factors such as production, transportation, and inventory adjustments These brands are therefore having a difficult time increasing their TV shipment for 4Q21 Quarterly TV shipment for 4Q21 is expected to reach 5913 million units, representing a 126% QoQ increase but an 103% YoY decrease TV shipment for 2H21 will therefore likely be among the lowest compared to shipment volumes for second halves of previous years historically
TrendForce further indicates that TV manufacturers’ shipment performances have been weakening this year as the market approaches the year’s end Stimulus checks issued in the US resulted in persistently high TV shipment in North America in 1H21, with brands maintaining their procurement of TV panels, thereby driving up the prices of TV panels as a result As the COVID-19 pandemic is gradually brought under control, and everyday life returns to normalcy in Europe and North America in 2H21, the pandemic-generated upswing in TV sales subsequently lost momentum Furthermore, while prices of raw materials and transportation/logistics services remained sky-high, manufacturing costs of whole TV sets also underwent a sharp climb and were then transferred to consumers Taken together, these factors quickly wiped out market demand for TVs TrendForce therefore expects annual TV shipment for 2021 to reach 210 million units, a 32% YoY decline
With a forecasted annual shipment of 68 million units for 2021, OLED TVs have become favored by various brands amidst rising manufacturing costs of TV sets
TV brands face various manufacturing-related challenges this year Not only have panel costs, which account for the largest share of TV sets’ manufacturing costs, undergone an increase, but port congestions have also led to rising shipping costs and an extended lead time before TV sets can be delivered for retail sale In addition to an uneven availability of various components, these aforementioned obstacles all exacerbate the risks involved with TV brands’ shipment In a bid to maximize profits, however, brands have been making a concentrated effort to ensure that the production of OLED TVs remained free from disruptions in an effort to maximize profits
As brands shift the focus of their sales efforts to OLED TVs, OLED TV shipment for 2021 is expected to reach 68 million units, a 728% YoY increase This growth can primarily be attributed to an increase in OLED TV supply due to the expanded production capacity of LGD’s production line in Guangzhou, as well as the narrowing difference between LCD panel prices and OLED panel prices due to the sharp rise in the former in 1H21 In particular, LGE is set to take leadership position with an over 60% market share and a 91% YoY growth in its OLED TV shipment Trailing behind in second place is Sony, which has been sourcing OLED panels from LGD The Japanese company is expected to register a 53% YoY increase in shipment and possess a 20% market share Panasonic, on the other hand, comfortably took third place with a 7% market share Notably, Xiaomi and Sharp are the two dark horses with regards to OLED TV shipment this year with explosive YoY growths of 900% and 140%, respectively
Major brands will concentrate on the high-end and large-sized segments, while smaller brands will continue to steadily develop mainstream products
While demand in the TV market recovers as the pandemic runs its course, TrendForce expects 45% and 55% of the total annual TV shipment for 2022 to take place in 1H22 and 2H22, respectively TV shipment for 2022 will likely reach 217 million units, a 33% YoY increase, as brands are able to aggressively ramp up their TV shipments thanks to not only an undisrupted supply of panels, but also gradually stabilizing prices For major brands, their focus will be on medium-sized and large-sized products and on products with substantial added values Hence, the market share of large-sized TVs (including 65-inch and above models) will for the first time ever surpass 20%, with medium-sized (40-inch to 59-inch models) TVs remaining at a 55% market share Although major brands are gradually exiting the small-sized segment, and smaller brands will have an easier time expanding their presence in emerging markets owing to gradually stabilizing prices, small-sized (39-inch and below models) TVs will see their market share drop by 18% next year to 25% In any case, the primary target markets for major brands and smaller brands will not overlap next year
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2021/08/24
As TV demand increased in North America in 1H21 following the distribution of stimulus packages, TV brands continued to replenish their component inventories during this time, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations Notably, brands adopted a rolling schedule for their TV shipment because their manufacturing operations for TV sets were disrupted by a shortage of panels in 2Q21 TV shipment for 1H21 reached 9845 million units, a 10% YoY increase
Although supply issues related TV components have become gradually alleviated in 3Q21, TrendForce believes that retail prices of TV sets in 2H21 are unlikely to reach the rock bottom levels previously seen in 1H21 because the massive price hike of TV panels in 1H21 had led to a surge in TV manufacturing costs In addition, as the market anticipates the possibility of an overall downturn in demand despite the arrival of the traditional peak season, TrendForce has once again revised its forecast of annual TV shipment for 2021 down to 215 million units, a 09% YoY decrease
Chinese and Korean TV brands were major contributors to the growth of TV shipment for 1H21 while shipment of ultra large-sized TVs remained robust
TrendForce’s findings show that, although TV shipment for 1H21 fell short of prior forecasts by 58%, shipment from the two largest brands SEC (Samsung Electronics Co) and LGE (LG Electronics) comprised more than 20% of total large-sized TV shipment for the first time, thereby propelling their TV shipments for 1H21 above 207 million units for SEC and 1401 million units for LGE In particular, SEC’s large-sized (65-inch and above) TV shipment underwent a staggering 25% YoY increase for 1H21 Hence, the two brands’ strategy to eschew profit loss from the surge in panel prices by upgrading their product specs and increasing the shipment of larger-sized products proved to be relatively successful
Despite nonstop issues with the supply of components required for TV set manufacturing in 1H21, TCL and Hisense were able to lower the manufacturing costs of their TV sets by increasing their shipments and adjusting their product mixes For 1H21, TCL and Hisense increased their TV shipments by 115% and 95% YoY to 1105 million units and 894 million units, respectively, with both companies setting records in terms of shipment volumes In particular, 55-inch (and above) TVs accounted for 365% and 402%, of the 1H21 TV shipment from TCL and Hisense, respectively, meaning they shipped more large-sized TVs in 2021 than in any previous year Xiaomi, the only brand among the top five to record a YoY drop in its TV shipment, saw its shipment reach 552 million units, a 66% YoY decline, despite occupying a larger share of TV shipment in China compared to TCL or Hisense While Xiaomi struggled with rising manufacturing costs due to the persistent price hike of TV panels, Xiaomi’s decline can primarily be attributed to the fact that it failed to attract consumers despite multiple promotional price cuts in 1H21
Persistently high prices of TV panels as well as lengthened shipping times in Europe and North America will likely hinder TV sales in 2H21 despite the arrival of the traditional peak season
Issues with TV panel supply are expected to gradually become resolved in 2H21 However, TV brands still need to address ongoing challenges with high panel costs as well as lowered TV demand in Europe and the US now that pandemic-related restrictions are being lifted From June 2020 to July 2021, prices of 32-inch panels rose by 167%, though retail prices of 32-inch TV sets rose by a mere 30-35% Similarly, prices of 55-inch panels rose by 120% while retail prices of 55-inch entry-level and mid-range TV sets rose by only 20-25%, with high-end TVs even experiencing a price drop In other words, promotional price cuts taking place during peak season sales this year are unlikely to be remarkable and result in noticeable sales performances
Although third quarters have traditionally marked the start of the peak sales season and hence a period of component procurement for TV brands, retail availability of end-products, such as TV sets, was delayed by three to four weeks this year due to port congestions taking place across the globe, which indirectly led to a decline in TV brands’ procurement activities for Europe and North America Peak season sales, in turn, will likely be relatively muted this year in view of an increase in TV manufacturing costs and lengthened shipping times Therefore, TrendForce expects TV shipment for 2H21 to reach 117 million units, an 85% YoY decrease
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2021/06/30
Continued price hikes of TV panels, as well as a simultaneous shortage and price hike of semiconductor components required for manufacturing TV sets have forced TV brands in 2021 to reduce the shipment of their mid- and small-sized TVs in favor of the more profitable large-sized, mid- to high-end TVs instead, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations This shift is expected to propel the annual shipment of QLED TV for 2021 to 1102 million units, a 224% YoY increase On the other hand, OLED TV shipment for 2021 is expected to reach 71 million units, an 80% increase YoY As such, both product categories are expected to break records in terms of shipment this year
It should be pointed out that, as increased vaccinations in Europe and the US bring about an imminent easing of border restrictions, TV demand generated by the stay-at-home economy is likely to slow down In addition, TV panel costs have remained sky-high and shown no signs of downward movement Hence, TV brands are moving towards larger product sizes and better specifications in order to maximize profits and minimize the financial losses incurred by selling mid- and small-sized TVs, which have relatively low margins Given the downscaling of these less profitable models, TV brands’ annual shipments will likely suffer a corresponding drop TrendForce therefore expects total TV shipment this year to reach 220 million units, a 14% YoY increase
Samsung’s Neo QLED series will help propel annual shipment of Mini LED backlight TV to three million units in 2021
There has been a sharp drop in the profitability of mid- to small-sized TVs this year In response, during the replacement period between old and new models, market leader Samsung Electronics has not only lowered the retail prices of its QLED products to attract consumers, but also released its new Neo QLED lineup, which features Mini LED backlights and resolutions ranging from UHD to 8K Samsung’s QLED TV shipment is expected to undergo a 17% YoY increase to 91 million units this year, the highest annual shipment in history In particular, Samsung’s lineup includes about 15 million Mini LED backlight TVs, mostly with 65-inch and 55-inch displays, and these sizes account for 33% and 30% of the company’s total Mini LED backlight TV shipment, respectively, while the ultra-large, 75-inch model will account for 17%
TCL, on the other hand, released a relatively affordable 75-inch Mini LED backlight TV in 2020, with a 65-inch model released this year TCL’s annual shipment of Mini LED backlight TV for 2021 will likely reach 800,000 units Apart from the aforementioned two brands, Xiaomi and LG are also eager to enter the Mini LED backlight TV market As such, TrendForce forecasts a total annual Mini LED backlight TV shipment of three million units for 2021
While brands expand their production lines for OLED TVs, LG and Sony are expected to seize nearly 80% of OLED market share
At the moment, OLED TVs have been attracting consumer attention in the high-end TV market primarily due to their excellent image quality through high color saturation and contrast As LG Display installs additional OLED capacity via its Gen 85 production line in Guangzhou this year, there will likely be a corresponding increase in OLED TV supply as well as a diversification of OLED TV sizes Also, annual OLED TV shipment is expected to break records once again this year, as brands are willing to expand their OLED TV product lineups because strategic reductions in OLED panel costs have now significantly narrowed the gap between the cost of OLED panels and that of equivalent LCD panels, thereby giving OLED panels a cost advantage that allows TV brands to reap increased profitability With regards to TV brands, LG Electronics remains the industry leader in terms of OLED TV shipment this year with a market share of more than 50%, while Sony takes second place with a 20% market share Other Japanese brands (Panasonic, Sharp, etc) and Chinese brands (Skyworth, Hisense, Xiaomi, etc) are likewise expected to experience shipment growths going forward
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2021/05/24
While demand for TVs underwent a slowdown in China and Europe due to the onset of the cyclical downturn, quarterly TV sales in North America reached a historical high in 1Q21 thanks to the proliferation of the stay-at-home economy and government-issued economic stimulus plans, such as the March 2021 handout of US$1,400 stimulus checks to most US citizens, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations Bullish TV sales in North America propelled global TV shipment for 1Q21 to 4996 million units, a 242% QoQ decrease but an 115% YoY increase
TrendForce further indicates that Hisense has been particularly aggressive in expanding in the overseas markets via consumer-friendly prices Not only did Hisense successfully enter the top five list of the largest TV brands in North America in 1Q21, but the company’s market share also surpassed 10% and reached 111%, with a 419 million unit quarterly TV shipment, which represents an 88% increase YoY
The gradual rise of TV set costs means companies are finding it difficult to offer peak season discounts TrendForce is therefore revising its forecast of TV shipment for 2021 down to 221 million units
The extended lead times for TV panels and other TV set components this year resulted in discrepancies in the sufficiency of various required materials for TV brands and ODMs/OEMs As such, lead times for TV sets were in turn extended, causing some shipments to be deferred to 2Q21 In this light, TrendForce is revising its forecast of TV shipment for 2Q21 up to 5238 million units, a 48% increase QoQ However, as prices of TV panels have been skyrocketing for the past year, most brands are finding their lineups of mid-sized and small-sized TVs (43-inch and under) unprofitable Brands have thus successively begun focusing on larger-sized and therefore more profitable products instead since the start of 2Q21 By doing this, TV brands are able to maximize their profitability through minimizing losses and expanding the production of TVs with high gross margins
It should be pointed out that most TV brands are posting lower than expected shipment performances for 1H21 since the shortage of TV panels and IC components this year means brands have been unable to procure sufficient panels and other components used in TV set manufacturing In addition, although brands historically began to plan out their Black Friday sales strategies with their channel distributors in the beginning of second quarters in years past, the persistent shortage of TV panels this year has led to a significant price hike Therefore, how brands find balance between shipment and profitability will remain the key to determining the shipment of TV sets in the upcoming peak season
TrendForce believes that, although brands have been adjusting their offerings through an emphasis on large-sized and highly profitable products since 2Q21, most of them lack killer products that are capable of significantly improving these brands’ shipment performances in the peak season Hence, TV shipment for 2H21 is expected to undergo a 67% decrease YoY All in all, owing to the impact of material shortage and cutbacks in mid-sized and small-sized TV shipments, TrendForce is revising its forecast of TV shipment for 2021 from 223 million units down to 221 million units, with the latter figure representing a 2% increase YoY, which is 08% lower than previously forecasted
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2021/03/24
Owing to demand generated by the persistent stay-at-home economy last year and from the emerging markets in certain developing countries, global TV shipment for 2021 is expected to reach 223 million units, a 31% growth YoY, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations The delay of UEFA Euro 2020 and the Tokyo Olympics until this summer will likely also play a role in driving up TV demand, regardless of whether live attendance will be allowed at the events However, prices have increased repeatedly and considerably for not only IC components (used in TV set assembly), which are in shortage due to tight foundry capacities, but also TV panels The price hike of TV panels has persisted since last June, with 32-inch panels, which are indicative of the rest of the TV panel market, reaching a massive 134% price hike for the period
TrendForce’s investigations also show that the increase in panel prices has made it difficult for white-label manufacturers and tier 2/3 brands, which have traditionally relied on aggressive pricing to achieve their sales performances, to procure sufficient panels Case in point, TV shipment from these companies has been gradually declining since last year Conversely, suppliers have been giving major TV brands top priority ahead of the aforementioned companies to procure both panels and components because major TV brands generally place orders regularly and in large quantities For the first time ever, the combined market shares of the top five brands, which are Samsung, LG, TCL, Hisense, and Xiaomi, surpassed 60% last year This figure is expected to further increase to 62% in 2021, representing the fact that the TV market is progressively becoming an oligopoly
As brands begin to favor large-sized products, 60-inch and larger TVs are expected to account for 177% of total TV shipment for the first time ever
With regards to various TV sizes, 32-inch panels have more than doubled in price since the start of the upturn last June In response, TV brands have been transitioning their product lines to TVs that are at least 55 inches in size More specifically, 55-inch TVs and ultra-large-sized TVs (60-inch and above) will account for 20% and 177% of the total TV shipment this year, respectively Whereas the 20% shipment share of 55-inch TVs remained the same as last year, the 177% shipment share of ultra-large-sized TVs is 33% higher than last year’s figure With regards to the annual shipment of ultra-large-sized TVs, 2021 marks a year of considerable growth compared to previous years, which generally saw YoY increases of 1-2% This growth reflects the necessity for TV manufacturers to quickly leverage the consumer demand for large-sized TVs in order to maintain a stable growth in the industry, given the substantial price hike of TV panels
As the difference between OLED and LCD panel prices narrows, TV brands are compelled to accelerate their OLED TV strategies
In response to the massive price hike of LCD panels, TV brands have begun to slightly raise the retail prices of TVs across various segments in order to keep up their bottom lines However, if brands were to at once completely offload the increase in panel prices to the retail end, consumer demand would plummet as a result A slow and gradual price hike is therefore expected to take place instead Incidentally, it should be pointed out that the price hike of TV panels would be unlikely to stop in the short run even if the current panel shortage were alleviated in the future As such, TV brands are expected to have limited room for profit growth in 2Q21
The OLED panel market, on the other hand, has taken an opposite turn compared to the LCD market For instance, prices of 55-inch UHD OLED panels were four times the prices of equivalent LCD offerings at the start of 2020, 29 times at the end of 2020, and 22 times in 1Q21, while prices of LCD panels underwent monthly increases In addition to the narrowing gap between OLED and LCD panel prices, the panel industry’s production capacity for OLED panels saw a major boost thanks to the capacity expansion of LGD’s Gen 85 fab in Guangzhou TrendForce expects OLED TV shipment for 2021 to reach 676 million units, a staggering 72% increase YoY, as OLED offerings become the top strategic priorities of TV brands in the high-end TV market this year
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
