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2021/06/30
Continued price hikes of TV panels, as well as a simultaneous shortage and price hike of semiconductor components required for manufacturing TV sets have forced TV brands in 2021 to reduce the shipment of their mid- and small-sized TVs in favor of the more profitable large-sized, mid- to high-end TVs instead, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations This shift is expected to propel the annual shipment of QLED TV for 2021 to 1102 million units, a 224% YoY increase On the other hand, OLED TV shipment for 2021 is expected to reach 71 million units, an 80% increase YoY As such, both product categories are expected to break records in terms of shipment this year
It should be pointed out that, as increased vaccinations in Europe and the US bring about an imminent easing of border restrictions, TV demand generated by the stay-at-home economy is likely to slow down In addition, TV panel costs have remained sky-high and shown no signs of downward movement Hence, TV brands are moving towards larger product sizes and better specifications in order to maximize profits and minimize the financial losses incurred by selling mid- and small-sized TVs, which have relatively low margins Given the downscaling of these less profitable models, TV brands’ annual shipments will likely suffer a corresponding drop TrendForce therefore expects total TV shipment this year to reach 220 million units, a 14% YoY increase
Samsung’s Neo QLED series will help propel annual shipment of Mini LED backlight TV to three million units in 2021
There has been a sharp drop in the profitability of mid- to small-sized TVs this year In response, during the replacement period between old and new models, market leader Samsung Electronics has not only lowered the retail prices of its QLED products to attract consumers, but also released its new Neo QLED lineup, which features Mini LED backlights and resolutions ranging from UHD to 8K Samsung’s QLED TV shipment is expected to undergo a 17% YoY increase to 91 million units this year, the highest annual shipment in history In particular, Samsung’s lineup includes about 15 million Mini LED backlight TVs, mostly with 65-inch and 55-inch displays, and these sizes account for 33% and 30% of the company’s total Mini LED backlight TV shipment, respectively, while the ultra-large, 75-inch model will account for 17%
TCL, on the other hand, released a relatively affordable 75-inch Mini LED backlight TV in 2020, with a 65-inch model released this year TCL’s annual shipment of Mini LED backlight TV for 2021 will likely reach 800,000 units Apart from the aforementioned two brands, Xiaomi and LG are also eager to enter the Mini LED backlight TV market As such, TrendForce forecasts a total annual Mini LED backlight TV shipment of three million units for 2021
While brands expand their production lines for OLED TVs, LG and Sony are expected to seize nearly 80% of OLED market share
At the moment, OLED TVs have been attracting consumer attention in the high-end TV market primarily due to their excellent image quality through high color saturation and contrast As LG Display installs additional OLED capacity via its Gen 85 production line in Guangzhou this year, there will likely be a corresponding increase in OLED TV supply as well as a diversification of OLED TV sizes Also, annual OLED TV shipment is expected to break records once again this year, as brands are willing to expand their OLED TV product lineups because strategic reductions in OLED panel costs have now significantly narrowed the gap between the cost of OLED panels and that of equivalent LCD panels, thereby giving OLED panels a cost advantage that allows TV brands to reap increased profitability With regards to TV brands, LG Electronics remains the industry leader in terms of OLED TV shipment this year with a market share of more than 50%, while Sony takes second place with a 20% market share Other Japanese brands (Panasonic, Sharp, etc) and Chinese brands (Skyworth, Hisense, Xiaomi, etc) are likewise expected to experience shipment growths going forward
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2021/05/24
While demand for TVs underwent a slowdown in China and Europe due to the onset of the cyclical downturn, quarterly TV sales in North America reached a historical high in 1Q21 thanks to the proliferation of the stay-at-home economy and government-issued economic stimulus plans, such as the March 2021 handout of US$1,400 stimulus checks to most US citizens, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations Bullish TV sales in North America propelled global TV shipment for 1Q21 to 4996 million units, a 242% QoQ decrease but an 115% YoY increase
TrendForce further indicates that Hisense has been particularly aggressive in expanding in the overseas markets via consumer-friendly prices Not only did Hisense successfully enter the top five list of the largest TV brands in North America in 1Q21, but the company’s market share also surpassed 10% and reached 111%, with a 419 million unit quarterly TV shipment, which represents an 88% increase YoY
The gradual rise of TV set costs means companies are finding it difficult to offer peak season discounts TrendForce is therefore revising its forecast of TV shipment for 2021 down to 221 million units
The extended lead times for TV panels and other TV set components this year resulted in discrepancies in the sufficiency of various required materials for TV brands and ODMs/OEMs As such, lead times for TV sets were in turn extended, causing some shipments to be deferred to 2Q21 In this light, TrendForce is revising its forecast of TV shipment for 2Q21 up to 5238 million units, a 48% increase QoQ However, as prices of TV panels have been skyrocketing for the past year, most brands are finding their lineups of mid-sized and small-sized TVs (43-inch and under) unprofitable Brands have thus successively begun focusing on larger-sized and therefore more profitable products instead since the start of 2Q21 By doing this, TV brands are able to maximize their profitability through minimizing losses and expanding the production of TVs with high gross margins
It should be pointed out that most TV brands are posting lower than expected shipment performances for 1H21 since the shortage of TV panels and IC components this year means brands have been unable to procure sufficient panels and other components used in TV set manufacturing In addition, although brands historically began to plan out their Black Friday sales strategies with their channel distributors in the beginning of second quarters in years past, the persistent shortage of TV panels this year has led to a significant price hike Therefore, how brands find balance between shipment and profitability will remain the key to determining the shipment of TV sets in the upcoming peak season
TrendForce believes that, although brands have been adjusting their offerings through an emphasis on large-sized and highly profitable products since 2Q21, most of them lack killer products that are capable of significantly improving these brands’ shipment performances in the peak season Hence, TV shipment for 2H21 is expected to undergo a 67% decrease YoY All in all, owing to the impact of material shortage and cutbacks in mid-sized and small-sized TV shipments, TrendForce is revising its forecast of TV shipment for 2021 from 223 million units down to 221 million units, with the latter figure representing a 2% increase YoY, which is 08% lower than previously forecasted
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2021/03/24
Owing to demand generated by the persistent stay-at-home economy last year and from the emerging markets in certain developing countries, global TV shipment for 2021 is expected to reach 223 million units, a 31% growth YoY, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations The delay of UEFA Euro 2020 and the Tokyo Olympics until this summer will likely also play a role in driving up TV demand, regardless of whether live attendance will be allowed at the events However, prices have increased repeatedly and considerably for not only IC components (used in TV set assembly), which are in shortage due to tight foundry capacities, but also TV panels The price hike of TV panels has persisted since last June, with 32-inch panels, which are indicative of the rest of the TV panel market, reaching a massive 134% price hike for the period
TrendForce’s investigations also show that the increase in panel prices has made it difficult for white-label manufacturers and tier 2/3 brands, which have traditionally relied on aggressive pricing to achieve their sales performances, to procure sufficient panels Case in point, TV shipment from these companies has been gradually declining since last year Conversely, suppliers have been giving major TV brands top priority ahead of the aforementioned companies to procure both panels and components because major TV brands generally place orders regularly and in large quantities For the first time ever, the combined market shares of the top five brands, which are Samsung, LG, TCL, Hisense, and Xiaomi, surpassed 60% last year This figure is expected to further increase to 62% in 2021, representing the fact that the TV market is progressively becoming an oligopoly
As brands begin to favor large-sized products, 60-inch and larger TVs are expected to account for 177% of total TV shipment for the first time ever
With regards to various TV sizes, 32-inch panels have more than doubled in price since the start of the upturn last June In response, TV brands have been transitioning their product lines to TVs that are at least 55 inches in size More specifically, 55-inch TVs and ultra-large-sized TVs (60-inch and above) will account for 20% and 177% of the total TV shipment this year, respectively Whereas the 20% shipment share of 55-inch TVs remained the same as last year, the 177% shipment share of ultra-large-sized TVs is 33% higher than last year’s figure With regards to the annual shipment of ultra-large-sized TVs, 2021 marks a year of considerable growth compared to previous years, which generally saw YoY increases of 1-2% This growth reflects the necessity for TV manufacturers to quickly leverage the consumer demand for large-sized TVs in order to maintain a stable growth in the industry, given the substantial price hike of TV panels
As the difference between OLED and LCD panel prices narrows, TV brands are compelled to accelerate their OLED TV strategies
In response to the massive price hike of LCD panels, TV brands have begun to slightly raise the retail prices of TVs across various segments in order to keep up their bottom lines However, if brands were to at once completely offload the increase in panel prices to the retail end, consumer demand would plummet as a result A slow and gradual price hike is therefore expected to take place instead Incidentally, it should be pointed out that the price hike of TV panels would be unlikely to stop in the short run even if the current panel shortage were alleviated in the future As such, TV brands are expected to have limited room for profit growth in 2Q21
The OLED panel market, on the other hand, has taken an opposite turn compared to the LCD market For instance, prices of 55-inch UHD OLED panels were four times the prices of equivalent LCD offerings at the start of 2020, 29 times at the end of 2020, and 22 times in 1Q21, while prices of LCD panels underwent monthly increases In addition to the narrowing gap between OLED and LCD panel prices, the panel industry’s production capacity for OLED panels saw a major boost thanks to the capacity expansion of LGD’s Gen 85 fab in Guangzhou TrendForce expects OLED TV shipment for 2021 to reach 676 million units, a staggering 72% increase YoY, as OLED offerings become the top strategic priorities of TV brands in the high-end TV market this year
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
2021/01/11
Thanks to the stay-at-home economy brought about the by the COVID-19 pandemic, TV shipment in North America saw the start of an upturn in late March last year, while demand in the European market also gradually ramped up in 2H20, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations On the whole, global TV shipment rebounded from rock-bottom levels in April and peaked in October 2020 Nonetheless, recent shortages in IC products from upstream semiconductor suppliers led TV brands to push back their 4Q20 shipment schedules, resulting in a global TV shipment of 217 million units in 2020, a 03% YoY decline
Looking ahead to 2021, TrendForce is not ruling out the possibility that the Tokyo Olympic Games and the UEFA European Championship, which were originally planned for 2020 but subsequently delayed due to the pandemic, will take place this year instead, despite the unpredictable nature of the pandemic These sporting events are expected to drive global TV demand to yet another record high In this light, TrendForce expects global TV shipment to reach 223 million units in 2021, a 28% YoY increase
Survival of tier two and tier three TV brands will be challenged in light of IC shortage and surging TV panel prices
Whereas the supply of TV panels dwindled in 2020 owing to the reduction in Korean panel manufacturers’ production capacities and the slowdown in new Chinese panel manufacturers’ mass production ramp-up, demand skyrocketed thanks to extended stay-at-home times induced by anti-pandemic measures Given such imbalanced supply and demand, prices of 40-inch to 55-inch TV panels rose by more than 60% within a mere six months, while prices of 32-inch panels more than doubled, in turn posing a great challenge for white-label TV manufacturers, which had traditionally survived in the market by offering low-priced TVs
TrendForce further indicates that the tightening supply of TV panels throughout 2020 and faster-than-expected demand recovery in 2H20 both indirectly exacerbated the existing shortage of wafer capacities for IC products Therefore, upstream suppliers, including foundries and panel makers, have become increasingly selective of their clients, and tier one TV brands have an advantage in securing wafer capacities from foundries due to their massive order volume Case in point, year 2020 marked the first time when the combined market shares of the top five TV brands surpassed 60% For tier two, tier three, and white-label manufacturers, the strained supply of panels and IC products will make it harder than ever for them to compete against tier one brands in the market
Shipment of 65-inch (and above) TVs will likely reach 30% YoY growth in 2021
As the prices of TV panels underwent MoM increases every month throughout 2H20, the profitability of 32-inch to 55-inch TV units, which were the market mainstream, gradually plummeted as well In response to declining profits from these low-priced products, TV brands began to redirect their procurement activities towards larger-sized panels In particular, this period saw a 234% and 478% growth in 65-inch (and above) and 70-inch (and above) TV panel shipments, respectively Under the assumption that panel prices will not undergo a substantial decline in 2021, TV brands will likely accelerate their product strategies for ultra-large-sized TVs Therefore, TrendForce forecasts a potential 30% YoY growth in the shipment of 65-inch (and above) TVs this year
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
2020/10/08
Owing to a 20% increase in TV demand in North America, as well as the fact that TV brands had deferred their shipment schedules in 1H20 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the effects of the third-quarter cyclical upturn were further compounded in 3Q20, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations Quarterly TV shipment reached a historical high of 6205 million units in 3Q20, which was a 388% increase QoQ and 129% increase YoY
The upswing of panel prices is expected to continue in 4Q20 If market demand for TVs remains high throughout the quarter, TV brands will likely continue their efforts to reach their yearly shipment targets while simultaneously expanding their market shares TV shipment is projected to increase by 4% QoQ in 4Q20, reaching up to 6453 million units This will in turn contribute to total yearly shipment for 2020, projected at 21609 million units, a 08% decrease YoY
Major TV brands scored remarkable performances in North America, while TCL’s shipment increased by 527% YoY in 3Q20
With regards to TV sales in North America, the onset of COVID-19 in March resulted in unexpectedly longer stay-at-home times for the general public, in turn raising their engagement levels with (and demand for) TVs, starting in April Total TV sales for the January-August period in North America grew by 20% this year compared to sales for the same period in 2019, thereby boosting the shipment performances of brands such as Samsung, TCL, Vizio, Hisense, and LG In particular, TCL has been aggressively expanding in the overseas markets in recent years by optimizing its costs through the vertical integration of its in-house panel and TV production lines TCL also benefitted from the stay-at-home economy brought about by the pandemic, which led to a massive growth of consumer demand for small- and mid-sized mainstream TV sets As a result, TCL’s TV shipment in 3Q20 reached 733 million units, a 29% increase QoQ and 527% increase YoY, ranking it as the industry leader
TV panel prices are likely to maintain their uptrend in 4Q20 following a 50% price hike for 32-inch panels in 3Q20, creating considerable cost pressure for TV brands
The major price hike of TV panels in 3Q20 saw 32-inch HD panels increase in price by more than 50% QoQ and 55-inch UHD panels by 41% QoQ Conversely, the average retail price of TVs in North America dropped by 3-5% YoY this year, reflecting the fact that TV brands are willing to sacrifice profitability in order to reach their yearly shipment targets and increase their market shares As TV demand is expected to continue rising in 4Q20, TV panel suppliers will become more consolidated next year after SDC terminates its LCD panel manufacturing operations, and BOE finalizes its acquisition of CEC Panda At the same time, TV brands will have to accept the potential price hikes of TV panels in 4Q20, including a forecasted 15-20% QoQ increase for 32-inch and 55-inch panels, in order to secure a steady supply from panel manufacturers
