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2021/01/11
Thanks to the stay-at-home economy brought about the by the COVID-19 pandemic, TV shipment in North America saw the start of an upturn in late March last year, while demand in the European market also gradually ramped up in 2H20, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations On the whole, global TV shipment rebounded from rock-bottom levels in April and peaked in October 2020 Nonetheless, recent shortages in IC products from upstream semiconductor suppliers led TV brands to push back their 4Q20 shipment schedules, resulting in a global TV shipment of 217 million units in 2020, a 03% YoY decline
Looking ahead to 2021, TrendForce is not ruling out the possibility that the Tokyo Olympic Games and the UEFA European Championship, which were originally planned for 2020 but subsequently delayed due to the pandemic, will take place this year instead, despite the unpredictable nature of the pandemic These sporting events are expected to drive global TV demand to yet another record high In this light, TrendForce expects global TV shipment to reach 223 million units in 2021, a 28% YoY increase
Survival of tier two and tier three TV brands will be challenged in light of IC shortage and surging TV panel prices
Whereas the supply of TV panels dwindled in 2020 owing to the reduction in Korean panel manufacturers’ production capacities and the slowdown in new Chinese panel manufacturers’ mass production ramp-up, demand skyrocketed thanks to extended stay-at-home times induced by anti-pandemic measures Given such imbalanced supply and demand, prices of 40-inch to 55-inch TV panels rose by more than 60% within a mere six months, while prices of 32-inch panels more than doubled, in turn posing a great challenge for white-label TV manufacturers, which had traditionally survived in the market by offering low-priced TVs
TrendForce further indicates that the tightening supply of TV panels throughout 2020 and faster-than-expected demand recovery in 2H20 both indirectly exacerbated the existing shortage of wafer capacities for IC products Therefore, upstream suppliers, including foundries and panel makers, have become increasingly selective of their clients, and tier one TV brands have an advantage in securing wafer capacities from foundries due to their massive order volume Case in point, year 2020 marked the first time when the combined market shares of the top five TV brands surpassed 60% For tier two, tier three, and white-label manufacturers, the strained supply of panels and IC products will make it harder than ever for them to compete against tier one brands in the market
Shipment of 65-inch (and above) TVs will likely reach 30% YoY growth in 2021
As the prices of TV panels underwent MoM increases every month throughout 2H20, the profitability of 32-inch to 55-inch TV units, which were the market mainstream, gradually plummeted as well In response to declining profits from these low-priced products, TV brands began to redirect their procurement activities towards larger-sized panels In particular, this period saw a 234% and 478% growth in 65-inch (and above) and 70-inch (and above) TV panel shipments, respectively Under the assumption that panel prices will not undergo a substantial decline in 2021, TV brands will likely accelerate their product strategies for ultra-large-sized TVs Therefore, TrendForce forecasts a potential 30% YoY growth in the shipment of 65-inch (and above) TVs this year
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
2020/10/08
Owing to a 20% increase in TV demand in North America, as well as the fact that TV brands had deferred their shipment schedules in 1H20 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the effects of the third-quarter cyclical upturn were further compounded in 3Q20, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations Quarterly TV shipment reached a historical high of 6205 million units in 3Q20, which was a 388% increase QoQ and 129% increase YoY
The upswing of panel prices is expected to continue in 4Q20 If market demand for TVs remains high throughout the quarter, TV brands will likely continue their efforts to reach their yearly shipment targets while simultaneously expanding their market shares TV shipment is projected to increase by 4% QoQ in 4Q20, reaching up to 6453 million units This will in turn contribute to total yearly shipment for 2020, projected at 21609 million units, a 08% decrease YoY
Major TV brands scored remarkable performances in North America, while TCL’s shipment increased by 527% YoY in 3Q20
With regards to TV sales in North America, the onset of COVID-19 in March resulted in unexpectedly longer stay-at-home times for the general public, in turn raising their engagement levels with (and demand for) TVs, starting in April Total TV sales for the January-August period in North America grew by 20% this year compared to sales for the same period in 2019, thereby boosting the shipment performances of brands such as Samsung, TCL, Vizio, Hisense, and LG In particular, TCL has been aggressively expanding in the overseas markets in recent years by optimizing its costs through the vertical integration of its in-house panel and TV production lines TCL also benefitted from the stay-at-home economy brought about by the pandemic, which led to a massive growth of consumer demand for small- and mid-sized mainstream TV sets As a result, TCL’s TV shipment in 3Q20 reached 733 million units, a 29% increase QoQ and 527% increase YoY, ranking it as the industry leader
TV panel prices are likely to maintain their uptrend in 4Q20 following a 50% price hike for 32-inch panels in 3Q20, creating considerable cost pressure for TV brands
The major price hike of TV panels in 3Q20 saw 32-inch HD panels increase in price by more than 50% QoQ and 55-inch UHD panels by 41% QoQ Conversely, the average retail price of TVs in North America dropped by 3-5% YoY this year, reflecting the fact that TV brands are willing to sacrifice profitability in order to reach their yearly shipment targets and increase their market shares As TV demand is expected to continue rising in 4Q20, TV panel suppliers will become more consolidated next year after SDC terminates its LCD panel manufacturing operations, and BOE finalizes its acquisition of CEC Panda At the same time, TV brands will have to accept the potential price hikes of TV panels in 4Q20, including a forecasted 15-20% QoQ increase for 32-inch and 55-inch panels, in order to secure a steady supply from panel manufacturers
2020/07/27
The COVID-19 pandemic caused major disruptions in the TV supply chain in 1H20, including work stoppages and deferred deliveries throughout upstream, midstream, and downstream companies Various retail outlets were also forced to halt operations due to pandemic-induced lockdowns, further affecting TV brands’ shipment performances According to TrendForce’s latest investigations, total shipment of TV brands in 2020 is expected to reach a mere 21411 million units, a 17% decrease YoY, but a 4% increase from the previous forecast in March, during which the outbreak’s spread was at its most aggressive This increase in forecasted yearly shipment suggests that the stay-at-home economy generated by the pandemic is consistently gaining momentum
TrendForce analyst Iris Hu indicates that, for the past 10 years, TV brands have shipped approximately 46% and 54% of their shipment each year in yearly first halves and second halves, respectively Due to the pandemic’s influences this year, however, the share of branded TV shipment in 1H20 was 4-5% less than the first half averages of 46%, as brands look to shore up their yearly shipment targets in 2H20 by betting on the momentum of the stay-at-home economy
Chinese brands are expected to compress one another’s market shares as they aggressively expand in overseas markets
Although TV brands saw a 77% YoY global shipment reduction in 1H20, their shipment in North America during the same period increased by 20%, thanks to stimulus bills and unemployment benefits released by federal and state governments alike in the US, as well as the public’s increased TV usage due to WFH demands and stay-at-home orders In particular, VIZIO, which has traditionally centered its sales strategy on the North American market, is expected to increase its TV shipment this year by 176% YoY
In addition, TCL and Hisense, which have been aggressively expanding their overseas market shares in recent years, remained undaunted by the pandemic and saw increased shipment against the downtrend by maintaining extremely cost-effective and comprehensive product lineups On the other hand, given the overall weakened global shipment in 1H20 and the aggressive effort at capturing market shares by Chinese brands and VIZIO, the shipment performances of Japanese brands and minor brands in the second/third tiers plummeted from bad to worse
TV brands’ profitability faces further challenges in 3Q20 as 55-inch panel prices grow by more than 20%
TV brands are stepping up their panel procurement efforts in 3Q20 to raise their market shares and to reach their yearly shipment targets, in turn driving up TV panel prices as well As quotes for 55-inch panels in July 2020 return to July 2019 levels, they are now 25-30% higher than their low point at the end of last year However, regarding the unit retail prices of branded TVs, prices for 55-inch UHD models in the North American market in June fell by more than 30% YoY, while there was a noticeable surge of sales discounts and promotions for high-end models TrendForce believes that, despite the proactive push by TV brands in 3Q20, skyrocketing panel prices mean the balancing act between shipment volumes and profit margins will remain an unavoidable challenge facing TV brands
2020/05/21
The latest investigations from the WitsView research division of TrendForce shows that, owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, global TV shipment is expected to undergo a 58% decrease YoY and reach 20521 million units in 2020 In the shrinking TV market, brands are vying for business growth by demonstrating their technical superiority, and this may be achieved through either improving specifications or differentiating their products In particular, thanks to the marketing push of leading manufacturer Samsung VD, QLED TV shipment is projected to grow by 418% YoY, reaching 827 million units this year
According to TrendForce Research Manager Iris Hu, given that the general public in many regions are issued stay-at-home orders because of the pandemic, there has been a surge in the demand for TVs that are 43 inches and under, which are suitable for WFH usages In addition, the longer time spent at home means the public now also spends more time watching TV The demand for a better viewing experience unexpectedly resulted in a wave of replacement demand for 65-inch TVs by the end of April this year
Retail prices of 65-inch QLED TVs fell by more than 20% in 1Q20 and became a major selling point
Owing to its technical and cost advantages, last year Samsung VD was able to not only occupy more than 90% share of the QLED TV market, but also drive up the overall QLED TV shipment to 583 million units, a 230% increase YoY In spite of the downturn in global TV shipment this year, the market for QLED products thrived on the flourishing stay-at-home economy as well as the sales promotions of Samsung VD’s older models in 1Q20, which resulted in retail price cuts of more than 20% for 65-inch QLED TVs in the North American market, incidentally creating a wave of replacement demand for new TV sets On the other hand, as a relatively new entrant, Huawei made its foray into the TV market last year by releasing a pair of Honor Vision-branded smart TVs with consumer-friendly prices In 2020, Huawei is making a major push with QLED product development as its entry point into the high-end TV market The company is expected to compete with Vizio for the number two spot in terms of QLED TV shipment this year
The OLED TV market faces the dual headwinds of hindered panel supply and high retail prices
Leading OLED TV panel manufacturer LGD previously intended for its Gen 85 OLED fab in Guangzhou to begin mass production in 1Q20, but this plan did not take place on schedule because of certain technical constraints Furthermore, the mid-January onset of COVID-19 in China compelled Korean employees who performed technical roles at the Guangzhou fab to return to Korea These technical workers would not recommence their work at the fab until April, in turn delaying LGD’s mass production of OLED panels
On the other hand, although many TV brands, including Sharp, Huawei, Xiaomi, and Vizio, are releasing OLED TV sets this year, TrendForce does not have an entirely optimistic outlook on the future demand for ultra-high-end TVs Case in point, both market leader LGE and Sony have revised down their shipment targets for OLED TVs this year TrendForce projects OLED TV shipment to increase by a mere 78% YoY in 2020, for a total of 3375 million units, which is a 261% decrease from the original number forecasted at the start of 2020 Aside from the pandemic-induced slowdown in OLED demand, the more flexible pricing of QLED products will also represent a substantial threat to the sales of OLED TVs this year, since the latter have historically maintained a high retail price
2020/03/27
According to WitsView, a division of TrendForce, its latest TV research report shows that the threat of looming China-US trade war tariff covered the year 2019 Besides, consumers' habits of using TVs were changed, so demand was indirectly reduced Fortunately, brands' promotional campaigns during Black Friday and November 11 were helped by massive fall of TV panel prices in 4Q19 Thus, the TV set shipment only slightly declined by 08% YoY in 2019, reaching 2178 million units
In early 2020, COVID-19 outbreak began to spread All levels of governments in China refrained people from moving freely, in order to suppress the spread of outbreak TV brands that mostly center on China's domestic market suffered heavy losses of sales In March, China's epidemic situation is steadily being contained By contrast, the COVID-19 pandemic rapidly soars in Europe and America continents In addition, many countries' stock markets crashed, and financial markets were severely hurt These factors significantly damaged consumers' confidence of future economy outlook In particular, consumption toward non-essential products became more conservative
In addition, UEFA EURO 2020 and 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games that were supposed to be held in 2020 were postponed to 2021 because of the escalating COVID-19 pandemic Therefore, TrendForce decreased TV set shipment prediction quantity to 2052 million units in 2020, down by 58% YoY When the pandemic can't be effectively contained in the future, TrendForce might move down the annual shipment prediction again
In 1Q20, the shipment is reduced by 86% from the pre-COVID-19 forecast; that of 2Q20 is moved down by 73%
In 1Q20, the TV industry is currently pressed both on the production side and demand side TrendForce reduces its prediction of global shipment for 1Q20 to 446 million units, down by 86% from the pre-COVID-19 prediction (488 million units)
Particularly, China's sales portion in Xiaomi and Skyworth both exceed 70% In 1Q20, Xiaomi's shipment quantity fell from pre-COVID-19 prediction by 259%, and that of Skyworth dropped by 21% These 2 brands were hit the hardest Amid international brands, they suffered slightly in 1Q20 In contrast, as the pandemic ravages globally, all brands' shipments will eventually unavoidably decline TrendForce modifies its shipment prediction for 2Q20 from pre-COVID-19 prediction's 476 million units to 441 million units, down by 73% For the near future, brands whose Europe's shipment portion surpasses 30%, such as Samsung VD, LGE, Sony and Philips, might be next victims of the pandemic
End-market demand quickly falls, and panel price rise hike might be halted in 2Q20
TV panel prices rebounded in 1Q20 mainly because of 3 reasons below First, Korean panel makers began to shrink their capacities from the end of 2019 Next, majority of panel size segments' prices dropped below their cash costs Third, after Chinese New Year Holidays, factories across China postponed their work resumption schedules Therefore, panel supply decreased In 1Q20, the panel prices of 32" and 55" both grew more than 10% QoQ from 4Q19
By contrast, as the COVID-19 pandemic spreads worldwide in March, on the demand side, brands will definitely reduce their panel procurement quantity in 2Q20 TrendForce, as a result, predicts that the reduction scale might reach 8-10% On the supply side, panel supply steadily recovers to pre-COVID-19 levels When demand might fall and supply might increase, panel prices' negotiation power will shift from sellers to buyers in April In other words, the panel price hike will stop
