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2023/06/06
TrendForce reports that the recently unveiled Apple Vision Pro at this year’s WWDC is poised to revolutionize the AR/VR market with its sleek design and high-performance capabilities However, the complexity behind its production and its limited production capacity present significant challenges, leading to a projected initial release in the US during 1H24 Furthermore, considering factors such as pricing and the absence of certain essential features, TrendForce anticipates a modest shipment volume of approximately 200,000 units for Apple Vision Pro in 2024 The market’s response will heavily depend on the subsequent introduction of consumer-oriented Apple Vision models and the ability of Apple to offer enticing everyday functionalities that will drive the rapid growth of the AR market as a whole
TrendForce also notes that the Apple Vision Pro boasts cutting-edge hardware specifications and innovative design However, a substantial price tag of US$3,499 and the requirement for an external power source to operate for a mere two hours pose challenges to consumer adoption Currently, the Apple Vision Pro lacks sufficient applications for mainstream users, making it more attractive to developers and enterprise customers who can capitalize on its innovative features to create diverse applications Consequently, the higher price point of the product is justified
Looking ahead, Apple has the opportunity to fine-tune the product specifications based on the usage patterns of various features in Vision Pro This will pave the way for the launch of a distinct offering, Apple Vision, which will cater to the budgetary constraints of general consumers while optimizing battery life As such, WWDC 2023 primarily focuses on the concept of spatial computing, setting the stage for the anticipation of more practical AR applications to be showcased at WWDC 2024 These applications will be tailored towards usage in daily life, including seamless integration with other Apple products for information retrieval and effortless command execution
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/05/22
TrendForce forecasts a global downturn in AR and VR device shipments for 2023, predicting a shipment total of roughly 745 million units—an 182% YoY decrease VR devices are expected to shoulder the majority of this decline, with projected shipments hovering around 667 million units This dip is primarily attributed to weaker-than-expected sales of newly released high-end devices Consequently, manufacturers are likely to pivot their sales strategies, shifting their focus to more cost-effective offerings Conversely, shipments of AR devices are expected to remain stable, with projected shipments exceeding 780,000 units While Apple’s latest offerings could stimulate some demand, the high price tags attached to these units continue to pose a significant barrier to broader market growth
Two key factors emerge when examining the impending decline in shipments in the VR sector Firstly, brands may have been overly optimistic regarding the sales of their top-tier products Despite these premium devices offering enhanced features courtesy of advanced hardware and software, consumers are showing reluctance to shoulder the associated higher costs Instead, they seem to be gravitating towards more budget-friendly models this year Secondly, the shortage of appealing, new, cost-effective models in the market is exacerbating the downturn Meta Quest 2 continues to maintain its status as this year’s market-leading VR product as the release of Meta Quest 3 has been pushed back to 2024
In contrast, AR devices experienced a significant surge in shipments during 2020 and 2021, fueled by pandemic-driven demand for remote communication solutions However, as the ramifications of the pandemic start to wane, this growth trajectory is showing signs of slowing down Although Apple is projected to launch a new product in 2023, this release is primarily targeted at developers, signifying an accompanying escalation in specifications, features, and, most importantly, cost This factor, coupled with anticipated production hurdles, is likely to restrict sales predominantly to pre-orders for this year Shipment estimates are projected to fall short of 100,000 units, with total production potentially capped at 300,000 units
TrendForce posits that the trajectory of the VR and AR device market may encounter certain limitations between 2023 and 2025 While affordable VR devices could pique the interest of mainstream consumers, the prospect of minimal profitability might dissuade manufacturers from substantial investment in the VR market in the immediate future A shift towards AR devices and their corresponding applications seems more probable Nevertheless, the expansion of the AR device market hinges on a broader acceptance of consumer applications Therefore, TrendForce anticipates that a significant rise in the VR and AR market, potentially nearing a 40% annual increase in shipments, might not be realized until 2025
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/01/19
TrendForce forecasts that the value of the global 5G market will reach US$145 billion in 2023 thanks to the promotion of 5G private networks by enterprises and the upgrading of the equipment purposed for small cells and 5G FWA Then, the global 5G market will further scale up to US$37 billion in 2026, with the CAGR for the 2023~2026 period coming to 110% Applications related to the Metaverse will help spur the demand for 5G networks during the period
TrendForce states that the main application segments of the market for 5G networks are industrial manufacturing, energy and utilities, medical solutions, smart vehicles, public transportation, and consumer electronics Regarding the distribution of the projected total market value of US$37 billion in 2026 by application, industrial manufacturing will have the largest share of 32% Manufacturing companies will leverage 5G to mainly upgrade their factories, such as making production processes more intelligent and combining production processes with solutions related to data visualization and analysis Energy and utilities will have the second largest share of 18% The connection of smart energy meters to a power grid will require a 5G network Furthermore, 5G technologies will be embedded in the energy equipment for monitoring power generation and predicative maintenance Medical solutions will have the third largest share of 15% Efforts to incorporate 5G into the field of healthcare will mainly focus on telemedicine that can raise clinical efficiency in remote areas
As for smart vehicles and public transportation, their collective portion of the total market value in 2026 will come to 25% Since 5G offers lower latency, carmakers and suppliers for automotive components want to leverage this advantage to develop better advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) Turning to public transportation, 5G is expected to play a vital role in the development of platforms for mobility as a service (MaaS) Lastly, with regard to consumer electronics, this application segment will account for 10% of the total market value in 2026 Various 5G solutions will be embedded in smart appliances and devices so that they are all interconnected
Regarding Taiwan-based companies that are involved in the 5G market, they mainly focus on products related to small cells, commercial private 5G networks used by enterprises, and 5G FWA equipment In recent years, the build-out of 5G infrastructure worldwide has been proceeding at a rapid pace This has also contributed to significant advances in technologies for edge computing Taiwan’s SERCOM, for example, has developed 5G small cells and 5G FWA equipment Shipments of its products have also been ramped up in order to meet the surging market demand generated by the aforementioned developments Askey, which is another network equipment provider from Taiwan, came to CES 2023 to promote its 5G private networks The company seeks to expand its presence in the European and North American markets for 5G applications and services
Demand for Applications Related to Metaverse Will Not Truly Take Off Until After Two to Three Years, but It Will Act as Notable Demand Driver in Meantime
TrendForce points out that the biggest difference between applications under the Metaverse and those under cloud services is that the former places much greater emphasis on interactions among multiple parties Through real-time image rendering and data synchronization, the Metaverse seeks to create a shared platform among users, as opposed to the more traditional video-based communications Moreover, Metaverse platforms create digital twins of users for engaging in deeper real-time interactions through speech, visual cues, movements (as performed by avatars), etc Data transmissions associated with these virtual activities are much larger in scale and more complex, so the platforms will require a high-speed and reliable network in order to provide the full user experience
Currently, the Metaverse is a newly emerged concept, so companies that are involved in the related applications and services are still in the initial exploratory phase Also, more time is needed to develop the key technologies such AR/VR and control interfaces that allow users to sense and operate within a virtual environment Therefore, TrendForce believes the market for Metaverse-related applications will take at least two to three years of cultivation Development efforts will remain focused on social media, multi-player games, education services, simulation training, remote collaboration, and virtual meetings
Among the global telecom operators and network equipment manufacturers, Nokia, Ericsson, and Huawei are now eyeing opportunities coming from the Metaverse To support related services and applications, these companies have invested resources to upgrade their network equipment and optimize their network environments In doing so, they will be able to handle the high-speed computing demand generated by large-scale and real-time virtual interactions that are taking place on Metaverse platforms
Nokia, for example, is developing two key Metaverse technologies through its subsidiary Bell Labs: human augmentation and digital-physical future As for Ericsson, it is now working on time-critical communication as one of its core 5G offerings Time-critical communication can optimize 5G hardware and ensure highly reliable real-time services Compared with Nokia and Ericsson that mainly focus on improving 5G technologies, Huawei is also deploying hardware across Africa in addition to its existing markets in North America and Europe For instance, Safaricom, which is the largest telecom operator in Kenya, has become the first telecom operator in East Africa to roll out a commercial 5G high-speed network by adopting Huawei’s solutions for network infrastructure
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/05/24
According to TrendForce research, smartphone camera module shipments will increase to 502 billion units in 2022, an annual growth rate of 5% Since the price-performance ratio of whole devices is the primary basis for consumer purchases, the cost of high-standard solutions such as the five-camera design and main cameras sporting hundreds of millions of pixels will inevitably be passed on to the manufacturer with little improvement in sales performance Therefore, the three-camera module remains the mainstream design this year and is forecast to account for more than 40% of total shipments Only some smartphone models will adopt a four-camera design to differentiate their specifications, while the number of products with dual-cameras or less will fall, with entry-level models being the primary candidates
By combining a high-pixel main camera with two low-pixel function cameras, a mobile phone can retain a three-camera design while taking into account hardware costs TrendForce believes that this is also the primary reason for the development of low-end and mid-range products towards a three-camera or even four-camera design in addition to the increased adoption of low-pixel function cameras including 2-megapixel depth cameras and macro cameras Growth momentum in mobile phone camera module shipments in 2022 will come primarily from additional numbers of low-pixel cameras prompted by the three-camera design Although a high-resolution main camera with better specifications allows mobile phone brands to provide better photographic performance, pixel specifications have not continued to climb higher and mainstream cameras linger at approximately 50 million pixels, causing a slight stagnation in demand
TrendForce indicates that mobile phone brands are currently curtailing competition in the hardware specifications of mobile phone camera modules but remain focused on photographic and video performance as promotional features of their mobile phones and will emphasize dynamic photography, night photography and other scenarios to highlight product advantages This can be achieved not only by strengthening the optical performance of the camera module itself but also through algorithms and software, thereby increasing the enthusiasm of mobile phone brands to invest in self-developed chips In addition to Apple and Samsung, which have long used their own SoCs, other mobile phone brands have also tried to launch self-developed chips to enhance image processing performance such as Xiaomi's Surging C1 and OPPO's MariSilicon X and VIVO's V1+
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/02/16
AR/VR device shipments revised up to 1419 million units in 2022, with an annual growth rate of 439%, according to TrendForce research Growth momentum will come from increased demand for remote interactivity stemming from the pandemic, as well as Oculus Quest 2’s price reduction strategy Microsoft HoloLens 2 and Oculus Quest 2 are first in market share for AR and VR, respectively
According to TrendForce, the topic of the Metaverse has driven brands to actively plan for and stimulate product shipment performance However, the AR/VR device market has yet to experienced explosive growth due to two factors: component shortages and the difficulty of developing new technologies In addition, cosmetic and size considerations have made the more optically and technically difficult Pancake design the first choice for new high-end products Furthermore, various embedded tracking feedback technologies key to enhancing the user's immersive experience such as eye tracking and 6DoF further affect the development progress of a new product as a whole Since there are no new foreboding products on the horizon, TrendForce believes, no other branded products have a chance at supplanting the current mainstream status of Oculus or Microsoft until at least 2023
The Oculus Quest 2, which costs between US$200 and US$400, is currently the most popular AR/VR device in the consumer market TrendForce expects Oculus to launch an advanced version of the Quest product within two years, reaching a hardware performance equivalent of US$700 or down to a retail price of US$500 with discounts This product is expected to expand the size of the high-end consumer AR/VR market The commercial market is dominated by the HoloLens 2 which costs more than US$1,000 and upwards of US$3,500 Since the commercial market places more emphasis on the benefits of hardware and software integration, manufacturers that dominate commercial systems, software, and platforms have the advantage Thus, Apple has become another focus in the AR/VR device market
Strong shipments of Oculus and Microsoft products will likely force Apple to release relevant products to join the competition this year However, TrendForce states, considering hardware performance requirements and gross profit margins, Apple will likely target the commercial market and adopt the same pricing strategy as HoloLens, hardware priced in the thousands of dollars and a monthly subscription-based software solution Overall, TrendForce believes that the launch of new products this year by Apple, Meta, and Sony may be delayed and will not add significant growth to the overall AR/VR market for the time being
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
