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2021/12/08
Factors such as the rising popularity of topics related to the metaverse and UGC (user-generated content), as well as the rapid increase in AR/VR device shipment, will likely result in the creation of a growing body of virtual reality content in the market, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations TrendForce expects annual global virtual reality content revenue to grow at a 40% CAGR from US$216 billion in 2021 to US$831 billion in 2025
TrendForce further indicates that gaming/entertainment, videos, and social interactions comprise the primary categories of virtual reality content Incidentally, as the construction of the virtual world and the development of virtual reality content are unlikely to be accomplished by only a handful of companies alone, companies in this space will therefore place an increasing emphasis on UGC instead Leading companies will likely leverage the build-out of virtual reality platforms/environments and the provisioning of developmental tools/interfaces in order to not only lower the barrier to entry for content creation, but also raise user participation, thereby driving up the content market for virtual reality applications
In consideration of profitability, most companies still adopt a wait-and-see approach towards the virtual reality market because content development for the virtual world entails substantial time and expenses The vast majority of UGC, however, is not profit-driven Hence, TrendForce believes that UGC is likely a more suitable point of entry into the virtual reality market for most companies that wish to do so Furthermore, companies that specialize in metaverse applications will place increasing emphasis on developing platforms, building comprehensive ecosystems, and lowering the barrier to entry for content creation through the appropriate development tools and interfaces
On the whole, factors that affect the development of the global virtual reality content market include not only the availability of platforms and their respective contents, but also the build-out of hardware equipment and infrastructures, such as high-speed computing chip adoption as well as 5G and Wi-Fi 6 deployment On the other hand, as the virtual world places a high demand on instant, lifelike, and stable interactions, the ability to resolve signal disruptions has in turn become a topic that demands attention With regards to end devices, the penetration rate of AR/VR devices going forward will primarily be determined by suppliers’ pricing strategies In light of the growth of virtual reality application content, companies will look to expand their user base via low-priced hardware devices and compensate for their reduced hardware profitability through software sales Finally, in response to the demand for more immersive and interactive user experiences, the integration of more sensors and better feedback design is set to become the next major trend of AR/VR device development
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2021/11/18
The growth of the metaverse will drive an increasing number of companies to participate in the build-out of the virtual world, with use cases such as social communities, gaming/entertainment, content creation, virtual economy, and industrial applications all becoming important points of focus in the coming years, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations Apart from increases in both computing power of semiconductors and coverage of low-latency, high-speed networks, the metavere’s development will also depend on the adoption of AR/VR devices by end users TrendForce expects global AR/VR device shipment for 2022 to reach 1202 million units, a 264% YoY increase, with Oculus and Microsoft each taking leadership position in the consumer and commercial markets, respectively
TrendForce further indicates that the success of AR/VR devices in the consumer and commercial markets will be determined by their retail prices and degree of system integration, respectively, while these two factors are also responsible for leading companies’ continued competitive advantages However, gross and net profit considerations regarding AR/VR hardware have made it difficult to not only price these devices competitively, but also increase the volume of AR/VR device shipment
Even so, the growing popularity of the metaverse will drive more and more hardware brands to enter the AR/VR market and push online service platform providers to either directly or indirectly propel the growth of the hardware market in 2022 Regarding the consumer market, AR/VR device suppliers may look to expand their user base and increase their market penetration via low-priced yet high-spec devices, while compensating for their reduced hardware profitability through software sales Oculus, for instance, has adopted such a strategy to maintain its advantage in the market, thereby raising the market share of the Oculus Quest products to a forecasted 66% next year
Regarding the commercial market, there has been a growth in applications ranging from remote interactions and virtual collaborations to digital twins; hence, enterprises have become increasingly willing to adopt AR/VR devices Compared to the consumer market, which is mainly driven by products with low prices and high specs, the commercial market is comprised of enterprises that are more willing to choose high-priced and high-performance products, although such products must be paired with a full system integration solution or customized services Possessing substantial competency in the industrial ecosystem, Microsoft enjoys a relatively large competitive advantage in the commercial market, as the company’s HoloLens 2 became one of the few commercial AR devices with an annual shipment exceeding 200,000 units this year
It should also be pointed out that, given the rapid advancements in high-speed 5G networks, video-based remote assistance applications enabled by low-priced AR glasses and 5G smartphones’ computing and networking functions will become yet another commercial AR/VR use case TrendForce believes that these applications can serve as a low-cost, easily deployable early trial that will not only raise enterprises’ willingness to adopt more AR/VR commercial applications going forward, but also accelerate the development of commercial services related to the metaverse
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2020/07/23
Total shipment of AR/VR devices is expected to reach 512 million units in 2020, according to TrendForce Thanks to the release of various glasses-like AR/VR devices, the AR/VR devices market is likely to rapidly expand from 2021 to 2022, with a forecasted shipment of 432 million units in 2025 This market is projected to reach a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 531% from 2020 to 2025
TrendForce analyst Jason Tsai indicates that the accelerating growth of the AR/VR devices market can be attributed to aggressive product strategies from branded manufacturers In particular, glasses-like AR/VR devices are projected to become a popular choice with which companies will expand their presence in the consumer electronics market An increasing number of brands are expected to release new products between 2021 and 2022 For instance, Apple, Huawei, and Samsung, among other companies, may release glasses-like AR/VR devices and in turn expand the market even further
Jason Tsai also states that, given the consumer electronics market’s high demand on product appearances and retail prices, AR/VR devices are manufactured with lightweight optical designs, in addition to having their computing units and batteries kept in separate housings, allowing the devices to resemble normal eyeglasses in terms of product appearance If AR/VR devices are designed to receive computing ability, power, network connectivity, or even apps from an external connection to smartphones, then these devices will be marketed as smartphone peripherals, much like smart watches, smart bracelets, and TWS Bluetooth headsets, in terms of product positioning As a result, smartphone brands are likely to make a proactive effort in developing related products while driving the market forward
Furthermore, these glasses-like, consumer AR/VR devices contain only several key components, including optical components, projectors (which serve as their light source), and optical engines To keep a diminutive size, the projectors used in these devices are mostly small-sized LCD or Si-OLED displays For instance, AR glasses mostly employ a birdbath optical design, which projects light from a Si-OLED display source mounted on the top or side of the glasses The adoption of Si-OLED displays has encouraged BOE and Seeya Technology to enter the industry and compete with existing Si-OLED suppliers Sony, Epson, and Kopin, demonstrating a wave of optimism in the AR/VR market
TrendForce believes the AR/VR market will see rapid expansion in 2021 and 2022 as various brands begin participating in AR/VR development, which will also lead to the development of related key components, such as optical components and Si-OLED displays
2019/09/25
The global shipments of smartwatches in 2019 are estimated to total around 6263 million units, according to the latest tracking analysis from the research firm TrendForce Looking ahead to 2020, smartwatch sales will benefit from the lower prices of the earlier versions of the Apple Watch devices and the releases of new smartwatch models from other branded device manufacturers TrendForce forecasts that the global smartphone shipments in 2020 will grow by 286% YoY to around 8055 million units The total shipments of the Apple Watch devices for the same year are also forecasted to grow by 218% YoY to around 34 million units
“The strong demand for the Apple Watch has been the chief growth driver of the whole smartwatch market,” said Jason Tsai, TrendForce analyst for wearable devices Tsai pointed out that Apple adjusted the prices of the Series 1 models in conjunction with the launch of the Series 2 models The move helped galvanize the overall sales of the Apple Watch devices
“Apple’s success in the smartwatch market is based on an effective pricing strategy and a proactive approach to the development of new products,” Tsai added “The price cut for the Series 1 models, in particular, has been a significant help in boosting shipments”
The upcoming release of the Series 5 models will again accompany by a price reduction for the Series 3 models Furthermore, new products and perhaps new brands will soon be entering the market All these factors will sustain the strong growth momentum in the future TrendForce’s long-term analysis of the smartwatch market currently forecasts that the global shipments in 2022 will break the ceiling of 100 million units to a total of around 113 million units
Tsai noted that smartwatches still lack dedicated killer apps that can really pique the curiosity of most consumers However, these devices have already incorporated a diverse range of biometric and lifestyle functions that demonstrate value to their users The focus of product development has also shifted Instead of adding new hardware components and functions, device manufacturers now aim to raise consumers’ interest in adopting smartwatches
As Tsai further explained: “The emphasis on value over specs gives entry-level models a key role in sales This is the reason why the Apple Watch models of the latest Series 5 are not that much different hardware-wise from the models of the discontinued Series 4, and why Apple has kept the Series 3 models as the entry-level options”
It is also worth mentioning that device manufacturers have now turned their attention to wearable devices in part because of the stagnating growth in the smartphone market Besides smartwatches, the major hardware brands are also allocating more of their resources into developing other categories of wearable offerings with good demand potential, such as Bluetooth wireless earphones According to Tsai, the established wearable brands including Huawei, Samsung, and Xiaomi will continue to launch new smartwatch models, while some other well-known brands in the smartphone market such as OPPO, Vivo, and Google could make forays into the smartwatch market in the near future TrendForce currently projects that the global shipments of non-Apple smartwatches in 2020 will register a sizable YoY growth of 34% The arrival of new products and market entrants could lead to a noticeable change in the relative market shares of the Apple Watch and the non-Apple smartwatches
2019/03/28
TrendForce states that the global 3D sensing market for smartphones has grown from 819 million USD in 2017 to 308 billion USD in 2018 as iPhones make a complete switch to structured light 3D sensing solutions Yet due to smartphone suppliers mostly focusing on fingerprint on display (FOD ), the global smartphone 3D sensing market is expected to grow by 263%, to a scale of 389 billion USD Apple, anticipated to take up TOF technology in 2020, may boost market development and bring YoY growth up to 531%
TrendForce Analyst Jason Tsai asserts that smartphone 3D sensing market scale growth still largely depends on Apple's iPhone devices Although LG, Samsung and other brands are rolling out smartphones equipped with 3D sensing modules this year, these modules are only limited to a few flagship models and don't contribute noticeably to market scale growth, with total shipments for the whole year arriving at 33 million devices
According to Jason Tsai's analysis, the main incentive for implementing structured light 3D sensing modules for most companies comes not from application, but merely from its potential to become a hot topic in the market On the other hand, TOF (Time of Flight) solutions have lower technological requirements and more solution suppliers, hence smartphone suppliers' interest to switch to TOF
However, TOF solutions are mainly suited for long-range, wide-area environmental detection, and are not necessarily better for facial recognition than structured light solutions Brand manufacturers also lack attractive AR applications, and high resolution TOF solution modules aren't necessarily cheaper than structured light ones These reasons further kill the desire for brand manufacturers to achieve widespread 3D sensing module implementation this year Thus, the penetration rate for smartphone 3D sensing is expected to rise from 84% in 2018 to merely 123%
Observing Apple, who leads the smartphone 3D sensing market, Jason Tsai points out that though Apple is the most aggressive developer of 3D sensing technology, it won't be immediately following in the footsteps of other competitors rolling out TOF solution modules this year, since development in Apple's AR applications is still underway TrendForce predicts that Apple may have to wait until 2020 if it wants to add TOF solution modules to its iPhones and include various AR applications along with it This will increase consumers' habitual usage of AR and prove to be beneficial for Apple's future development of AR related products
As Apple releases new devices with TOF solutions for 3D sensing modules and AR applications along with it in 2020, it may attract other brands to follow up and further accelerate 3D sensing market development It is predicted that the global smartphone 3D sensing market will grow up to 596 billion USD and bring the penetration rate up to 20%
