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keyword:Jason Tsai25 result(s)

Press Releases
Hardware Market for Mobile 3D Sensing Will Expand at a CAGR of 209% From 2017 to 2020, Says TrendForce


Telecommunications / Semiconductors / LED / Consumer Electronics

Major technology companies have been developing solutions and platforms for 3D sensing, which is expected to be featured on the upcoming iPhone devices Market intelligence TrendForce anticipates that from 2017 onward, the market for 3D sensing solutions used in mobile devices will witness leaping growth The total value of the global market for 3D sensing modules used in mobile devices is estimated to reach US$15 billion in 2017 and is forecast to grow at a massive CAGR of 209% to around US$14 billion in 2020 Note that the 3D sensing module that is being discussed includes IR transmitter and receiver components Some of the 3D sensing solutions that are now available on the market include Intel’s RealSense, Google’s Tango and the REAL3 Image Sensor family jointly developed by Infineon and PMD Technologies More recently, Qualcomm and another fabless semiconductor company Himax also announced that they will be combining their 3D sensing technologies as to accelerate their entry into associated application markets The activities from these solution developers are also driving the demand for related hardware, benefitting component suppliers such as AMS, Heptagon and Lumentum Microsoft was one of the early adopters of 3D sensing Its Surface Pro 4, which was released in 2015, carried a 3D sensing module Since then, brands such as Google, Lenovo and ASUS have also launched smartphones featuring 3D sensing as to gauge the market for related mobile applications TrendForce analyst Jason Tsai noted that the strong likelihood of Apple adding the 3D sensing feature into its 10th anniversary iPhone refresh means that the market for 3D sensing hardware will expand at an accelerated pace “Based on an analysis model that includes iPhone-driven demand, the global market for 3D sensing modules used in mobile devices is projected to register a spectacular annual growth rate of 703% in the total value for 2017,” said Tsai The arrival of iPhone devices with 3D sensing would generate significant interests in the related hardware from Samsung, Huawei and other smartphone brands “Over the next two to three years, the third-party software developers will produce more mobile apps that require the 3D sensing function,” Tsai pointed out “As 3D sensing apps mature, smartphone makers will also accelerate the incorporation of related hardware into their mainstream offerings TrendForce therefore expects another demand surge in the mobile 3D sensing market in 2019” Tsai added that the 3D sensing feature on smartphones is currently used mainly for tasks that involve facial recognition of the user, such as unlocking the device and mobile payment The market growth momentum for 3D sensing hardware will depend on component suppliers and smartphone makers finding low-cost, useful and wide-ranging applications “From the perspective of smartphone makers, the development of third-party apps will be influential to raising the overall price-performance ratio of 3D sensing modules,” said Tsai

Press Releases
TrendForce Expects Polysilicon Prices to Remain High in Third Quarter Even Though Supply Might Start to Improve in Mid-September



The latest PV market analysis from EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, finds that the average global spot price of polysilicon has surged by 20% between the end of July and the middle of August The polysilicon supply has tightened up suddenly because the leading supplier in China had to do an emergency repair at one of its factories This added to the pressure on the supply caused by annual plant maintenance works carried out by other suppliers The squeeze on the polysilicon supply will start to loosen in the middle of September, when the US market awaits for the preliminary decision by the US International Trade Commission (ITC) on Suniva’s petition However, some polysilicon suppliers have plant maintenance tasks scheduled into the third quarter Therefore, the overall available polysilicon stock will still be quite limited TrendForce anticipates polysilicon prices to drop again in September, but the average spot price in China is not expected to go under RMB 135 per kilogram “This drastic decrease in polysilicon supply is just too great and will have an impact across the PV supply chain,” said EnergyTrend analyst Jason Tsai “A large portion of the current polysilicon demand that was arranged earlier by the downstream markets will not be met even if polysilicon supplier have released their emergency reserves and buyers scoured the market Spot prices of multi-Si wafers have also jumped since the shortage of polysilicon limited their supply” Furthermore, PV cell suppliers based in Taiwan or have factories in third-party countries are now dealing with an influx of orders, as August is the peak demand period in the US and Europe To keep up shipments, they will have to bear the polysilicon cost increase that the wafer suppliers have passed on to them in the form higher wafer prices Small-and medium-size PV cell suppliers in China do not have a lot of orders from foreign markets, so they can lower their capacity utilization rates to moderate the effect of rising polysilicon cost On the whole, the upstream sections of the PV supply chain are beginning to reap a greater share of the profit margin On the demand side, US solar companies have pulled PV module orders ahead so that products will enter the US before the ITC announces its preliminary ruling on Suniva’s petition on September 22 Both module exporters and importers want to minimize the risk of paying cash deposits for duties that may be imposed following the September ruling Thus, module shipments by sea must leave their departing ports no later than in the latter half of August With most deliveries made before September, the effect of Suniva’s petition on the demand across the supply chain will be less significant Hence, there is a strong chance that demand and prices along the multi-Si product chain will start to fall during September Prices and demand for mono-Si products on the other hand will be driven by China’s Top Runner Program in the same period Since the grid-connection deadline for solar projects under the Top Runner Program is September 30, the mono-Si demand is expected to peak in the near term on account of the installation rush Polysilicon prices will be supported by the tight supply and the demand from the mono-Si market

Press Releases
TrendForce Anticipates Increasing Demand for Taiwanese PV Products This Third Quarter Following Latest Reviews of AD/CVD Rates


Consumer Electronics / Energy

The US has further lowered the antidumping and countervailing (AD/CVD) rates imposed on Chinese and Taiwanese solar imports in 2012 and 2014, according official statements on the recent AD/CVD reviews conducted by the US Department of Commerce Many PV cells and module manufacturers have managed to evade US trade barriers by setting up factories in third-party countries, majority of them in Southeast Asia However, TrendForce’s green energy division EnergyTrend believes that the reduction of AD/CVD rates will have an impact on the global market this third quarter Module orders from the US have grown significantly since the second quarter of 2017, as Suniva’s petition to the US International Trade Commission for relief against solar imports (under Section 201 of the 1974 Trade Act) has increased uncertainties and risks in the market Although the overall production capacity in third-party countries has expanded, it is still insufficient to meet the surging demand With prices of non-Chinese cells and modules rising, US and European buyers in the downstream of the supply chain are considering different sources and options The US government has treated the 2012 and 2014 AD/CVD review as five separate cases The table below shows their current statuses Note that information and rate calculations are based on various official announcements from government agencies in the US, China and Taiwan EnergyTrend analyst Jason Tsai pointed out that PV product manufacturers have evaded or minimized the costs resulted from the US trade barriers by first utilizing their production capacities in third-party countries, where the AD/CVD rates are zero If they assemble modules in these countries but use Taiwanese cells, their modules are going to be hit with rates ranging from 356% to 42% If they resort to using facilities in China or Taiwan for both cell and module production, then AC/CVD rates for these products will be the range of 218% to 3137%  Before the results of the latest AD/CVD reviews were announced, Taiwanese cell suppliers had been hit with AD rates ranging from 1145% to 2755% The barrier to the US market was extremely high for Taiwanese products compared with products made in countries such as Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia The US investigation of Suniva’s petition, on the other hand, has created a demand surge that cannot be met by just relying on factories in the third-party countries The deployment of Taiwanese cells in non-Chinese modules has kept prices from rising sharply The amount of orders from the US and Europe will determine whether this practice will continue to keep module prices stable However, some module orders have even gone to India and Turkey, which are not traditional sources for non-Chinese module imports With the outcome of Suniva’s petition unresolved, Taiwanese cell suppliers can expect an increase in sales volumes and prices this third quarter Despite the additional cost resulted from AD/CVD, China-based solar companies have been able to maintain sufficient profit margins in the US, where the average prices of multi-Si and mono-Si PERC modules have now reached US$038 and US$046 per watt respectively Prices could still go up in the US sometime near the end of September Therefore, Chinese manufacturers may consider expanding their US-bound exports during the off season of August By doing this, they could capture more market share, raise utilization of their domestic production capacities and ease the price decline for modules in their home market If there is an influx Chinese products in the US market, the price upswing related to the risks of Suniva’s petition could moderate, with the average price of multi-Si modules estimated to reach the upper limit of US$041 per watt

Press Releases
IR Sensor Modules for Mobile Devices to Reach US$145 Million in Scale This Year as Smartphones Adopt 3D Sensing for Facial Recognition Applications, Says TrendForce


Telecommunications / LED / Consumer Electronics

Among the possible new technologies to be incorporated in this year’s refresh of the iPhone series, 3D sensing has generated a lot of interests in terms of applications A 3D sensing solution requires an RGB camera module an infrared (IR) sensor module that uses VCSEL (vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser) as a light source With more high-end smartphones adopt 3D sensing, TrendForce estimates that the worldwide market scale of IR sensor modules for mobile devices will reach US$145 million in 2017 Since Apple gained IPs related to 3D sensing via its acquisition of PrimeSense in 2013, there have been anticipations that future smartphones will one day feature facial recognition based on this technology Jason Tsai, TrendForce’s wearable analyst, pointed out that the 3D facial recognition feature on smartphones is not going to match digitally created 3D models of human faces and match them with reference models in databases as most people would expect “Acquiring and processing data of 3D models is quite burdensome for smartphone hardware, especially if models are to be constructed in precise detail,” said Tsai “To have a 3D facial recognition feature with an acceptable response time, smartphone makers are probably going to enhance the existing 2D facial recognition solutions with 3D sensing Therefore, 3D sensing will be a supporting technology that mainly helps to determine whether the face that is being recorded comes from a real living person” Generally, solutions based on 3D sensing obtain dimensional data including depth values by scanning the environment within a defined range These data in turn create digital 3D models that can be analyzed or matched with reference models in the database Tsai noted that extending the scanning range and getting finer depth details of objects will take more computing power and time  “Scanning range and modeling capability have positive relationships with hardware specifications,” said Tsai “In the realm of AR for mobile devices, applications are still too few to warrant the hardware cost for 3D sensing There is also the issue of increasing power consumption Consequently, smartphone makers are not too keen on using 3D sensing for AR-based features because this kind of innovations do not significantly increase the value of their products” On the other hand, 3D sensing can strengthen user security by making the facial recognition function of the device more accurate This does not mean that smartphone has to create, store and match exact models of human faces 3D sensing is just there to ensure that the smartphone can recognize that the facial image that the camera has captured comes from a real living person  “3D facial recognition for smartphones must be fast enough so that it can assist in tasks such as unlocking the device, mobile payment and identity verification,” Tsai pointed out “Convenience and response time are just as important as accuracy in the adoption of new biometric technologies Otherwise, consumers would still prefer passwords and fingerprints” Tsai added that as 3D sensing components will push up hardware cost for smartphone makers, such solutions will initially be available for the high-end market segment Gradually, there will be more smartphones featuring this kind of technology in the near future

Press Releases
CES 2017 Reveals AR/VR Industry Has Shifted Its Focus From Hardware to Applications, TrendForce Reports


Consumer Electronics / Telecommunications

AR and VR continue to grab attention worldwide and their uses have expanded into tourism, work, warehousing operations and drones, reports TrendForce from CES 2017 The related demonstrations and announcements made at this year’s event have shown that the AR/VR industry as a whole is shifting its focus from hardware development to expanding applications TrendForce forecasts that the annual global shipments of VR devices will reach 51 million units in 2017 and grow to 85 million in 2018 Note that the projected figures exclude mobile VR products “This year’s CES has shown that the novelty surrounding AR and VR has worn off slightly when compared with the level of excitement during last year’s event,” said Jason Tsai, TrendForce wearable device analyst “With market entrants seeing limited returns for their efforts, only those companies that are truly committed in this field will keep launching new products and exploring new applications, thereby turning concepts into practical innovations” Tsai noted that AR has received more attention at the event compared with VR There were demonstrations of AR smart glasses from brands such as Osterhout Design Group (ODG), Vuzix, Epson and Kopin Vuzix’s products in particular are running on Intel’s chips, while ODG’s smart glasses are equipped with Qualcomm’s latest solution Snapdragon 835 Looking at VR, this year’s CES has shown that technology brands worldwide are still launching and developing new devices However, the three leading brands Sony, Oculus and HTC are now concentrating mainly on improving the accessories to their devices As they are not expected to release their next-generation hardware until 2018, the market demand for VR devices is going to cool down a bit this year TrendForce’s latest VR device shipment projection indicates that around 25 million units of PlayStation VR (PS VR) will be shipped worldwide this year PS VR will therefore make up the largest share in the total annual shipments of 51 million units Also, device shipments of HTC and Oculus for the entire 2017 are estimated to reach 06 and 12 million units, respectively Excluding the top three vendors, combined VR device shipments from other brands in 2017 will come to about 08 million units Tsai added that this year’s CES has also witnessed a further expansion of applications for AR and VR technologies in addition to the usual VR gaming The AR/VR industry is taking its solutions to areas such as tourism, work, warehousing operations and drones “Growing these application markets will be critical to the foundation of the industry, as opposed to hardware vendors putting out similar products,” Tsai pointed out TrendForce estimates that the combined annual revenue of VR hardware and software markets will hit US$34 billion in 2017 Industry participants will need a period to find and develop profitable applications before explosive revenue growth can occur TrendForce furthermore anticipates that both hardware and software markets will finally start to take off in 2020, when their combined annual revenue is forecast to reach US$224 billion TrendForce will be holding CES Forum 2017 at National Taiwan University Hospital (NTUH) International Convention Center on January 20 For details about this event please contact us via phone or email

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