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2022/08/04
According to TrendForce research, Intel plans to outsource the tGPU chipset in Meteor Lake to TSMC for manufacture Mass production of this product was initially planned for 2H22 but was later postponed to 1H23 due to product design and process verification issues Recently, the product’s mass production schedule has been postponed again to the end of 2023 for some reason, nigh completely cancelling 3nm production capacity originally booked in 2023 with only a marginal amount of wafer input remaining for engineering verification
TrendForce indicates that this incident has greatly affected TSMC's production expansion plan, resulting in Apple being the one company among the first wave of 3nm process clients from 2H22 to the start 2023 with products including M series chips and A17 Bionic In view of this, TSMC has decided to slow the progress of its production expansion to ensure production capacity is not excessively idle, leading to massive cost amortization pressure In addition to formally notifying equipment suppliers of the company’s intention to adjust 2023 equipment orders, due to the high cost of 3nm expansion, TrendForce expects that this move will also affect some parts of TSMC’s 2023 CapEx planning As a result, the scale of TSMC’s CapEx in 2023 may be lower than in 2022
It is worth mentioning, although Intel has significantly adjusted its 2023 outsourcing plan, causing TSMC to postpone its 2023 expansion plans, looking at other advanced process clients including AMD, MediaTek, and Qualcomm, all of these companies successively plan to mass-produce 3nm products in 2024 At the same time, Apple's new 2024 iPhone is expected to fully adopt 3nm processors The introduction of the aforementioned clients will inject momentum into TSMC's 3nm capacity utilization and revenue performance in 2024
TrendForce believes, although TSMC has decided to curb its CapEx in 2023 due to the delay of Intel products, TSMC's annual revenue will still grow compared with 2022 but at a slower rate The reduction in CapEx can also relieve TSMC’s huge cost amortization pressure and reduce the degree of gross profit dilution in the early stage of 3nm mass production
Looking forward to 2024, with new products from clients such as AMD, MediaTek, and Qualcomm in place, 3nm process output is expected to be on track, further promoting strong growth in TSMC's revenue scale However, the development status of Intel's own Intel 4 process and the accompanying outsourcing situation are still important potential growth drivers for TSMC If Intel 4 fails to mass-produce as scheduled, Intel may outsource its computing tiles to TSMC, strongly driving growth in 2024 However, if the Intel process develops smoothly, there remains the possibility of the company choosing to manufacture related products itself and canceling TSMC's orders
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/07/07
According to TrendForce investigations, foundries have seen a wave of order cancellations with the first of these revisions originating from large-size Driver IC and TDDI, which rely on mainstream 01Xμm and 55nm processes, respectively Although products such as MCU and PMIC were previously in short supply, foundries’ capacity utilization rate remained roughly at full capacity through their adjustment of product mix However, a recent wave cancellations have emerged for PMIC, CIS, and certain MCU and SoC orders Although still dominated by consumer applications, foundries are beginning to feel the strain of the copious order cancellations from customers and capacity utilization rate has officially declined
Looking at trends in 2H22, TrendForce indicates, in addition to no relief from the sustained downgrade of driver IC demand, inventory adjustment has begun for smartphones, PCs, and TV-related peripheral components such as SoCs, CIS, and PMICs, and companies are beginning to curtail their wafer input plans with foundries This phenomenon of order cancellations is occurring simultaneously in 8-inch and 12-inch fabs at nodes including 01Xμm, 90/55nm, and 40/28nm Not even the advanced 7/6nm processes are immune
Capacity utilization rate unbound, resources effectively allocated, material mismatch issues eased
According to TrendForce research, the capacity utilization rate of eight-inch nodes (including 035-011μm) may decline the most Products utilizing these processes are primarily Driver IC, CIS, and Power-related chips (PMIC, Power discrete, etc) Among these products, Driver IC has been directly impacted by cooling demand for TVs and PCs, reflected by the most severe downward revision of wafer inputs At the same time, the supply of PMICs, which was still tight in 1H22, gradually achieved greater equilibrium after the redistribution of production capacity
However, as demand continues to fall in 2H22, inventory adjustment has also begun for consumer PMICs and CISs Although there are still demand backstops for PMICs and power discrete originating from servers, automotive, and industrial applications, it is still difficult to make up the difference generated by driver IC, consumer PMICs and CISs order cancellations and the subsequent decline in the capacity utilization rate at some 8-inch fabs TrendForce believes that the overall capacity utilization rate of 8-inch fabs will be roughly 90~95% in 2H22, while some fabs manufacturing a greater proportion of consumer applications may have to fight an uphill battle to maintain production capacity at 90%
The same situation has also occurred in mature 12-inch processes However, since 12-inch products are more diverse and their production cycle generally takes at least one quarter, coupled with upgrades to some product specifications, trends such as process transition have not been affected by broader short-term economic fluctuations As a result, overall production capacity utilization rate can still be maintained at a high operational watermark of approximately 95% Compared with operating rates that easily hit 100% in the past two years, production line operation has gradually normalized and stabilized, demonstrating a steady balancing of resource allocation
In terms of advanced processes, these are utilized primarily to produce CPU, GPU, ASIC, 5G AP, FPGA, AI accelerator, etc Terminal applications remain dominated by smartphones and high-performance computing (HPC) Affected by the weak smartphone market, 5G APs have also experienced downward revisions of order volume but stocking momentum for HPC-related products remains stable Coupled with plans to announce a number of new products, TrendForce believes that 7/6nm capacity utilization rate will decline marginally to 95~99% in 2H22 due to product mix conversion, while 5/4nm processes will remain near full load, driven by several new products
Looking forward to 2023, TrendForce believes, after nearly two and a half years of chip shortages, cooling of consumer product demand will ease the capacity utilization rate of wafer foundries in the short term and applications that were starved for chips in the past are now able to obtain a reallocation of resources The penetration rate of related applications such as 5G smartphones and electric vehicles has increased year by year while the stocking momentum of 5G base stations, infrastructure in various countries including automated security inspection measures, and server demand from cloud services will continue to support the capacity utilization rate of foundries at a level roughly above 90% However, some manufacturers that mainly produce consumer products may see capacity utilization rate fall below 90% At this time, foundries must rely on their own internal diversified planning and resource allocation of product applications to overcome the inflationary crisis of component inventory adjustments
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/06/22
According to TrendForce, semiconductor equipment is once again facing the dilemma of extended lead times up to 18-30 months Before this latest equipment lead time delay, the annual growth rate of 12-inch equivalent (including 12-inch and 8-inch) capacity supplied by global foundries in 2022 and 2023 was estimated to be 13% and 10%, respectively Current observations indicate that this delay of semiconductor equipment has a relatively marginal impact on expansion plans in 2022 with the bulk of repercussions arriving in 2023, affecting TSMC, UMC, PSMC, Vanguard, SMIC, and GlobalFoundries, and encompassing mature and advanced processes Overall expansion plans will be delayed for approximately 2 to 9 months with annual capacity growth expected to fall to 8% for the year
TrendForce adds, the lead time of semiconductor equipment prior to the pandemic was approximately 3 to 6 months Since 2020, strict pandemic induced border controls implemented by countries worldwide have impeded logistics However, during the same period, IDMs and foundries benefited from strong terminal demand and actively expanded production Thus, lead times on semiconductor equipment were obliged to lengthen to 12-18 months Induced by the Russian-Ukrainian war, logistic gridlock, and insufficient production capacity of semiconductor industrial control chips, production of semiconductor equipment will begin feeling the impact of raw material and chip shortages by 2022 Excluding EUV lithography equipment with a fixed annual output, the lead time of remaining machinery will be extended to 18-30 months, among which the shortage of DUV lithography equipment is the most serious, followed by CVD/PVD deposition and etching
It is worth mentioning that the Russian-Ukrainian war and rising inflation have affected the acquisition of various raw materials, as well as the continuing impact of the pandemic on manpower, both of which have led to delays in semiconductor fab construction This phenomenon and equipment delivery delays simultaneously affect each foundry’s expansion plans in 2023 and beyond However, since the beginning of this year, the boon of the stay-at-home economy has evaporated and the demand for consumer electronic products such as TVs, smartphones, and PCs has continued to weaken, resulting in high inventory held by terminal brands According to TrendForce investigations, foundries will still rely on product mix adjustment and the reallocation of resources to products still in short supply to maintain capacity utilization rates at close to 95% of full load
From 2H22 to 2023, high inflationary pressure may continue to depress global consumer demand However, from the supply side, the process of wafer foundry expansion is affected by factors such as equipment delivery delays and plant construction delays These delays will cause the annual growth rate of global wafer foundry capacity to shrink to 8% in 2023 TrendForce believes a prolonged expansion process has eliminated some concerns regarding oversupply in 2023 brought about by the current market conditions categorized by weak consumer demand Nevertheless, a shortage of some undersupplied materials may continue At this time, it is necessary to rely on the diversified planning of the wafer foundry for each terminal application and each product process to balance uneven distribution of mismatched material resources
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
The Webinar, ”COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar: Diverse Market Opportunities Generated by Applications of Cyber-Physical Systems” will start from June 15, 2022 The TrendForce research team including Mark Liu, Caron Ju, Bryan Ao, and Alex Chen will present speeches regarding memory, servers, and datacenters, respectively
【Info】
When：Wednesday, June, 15
Where：COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar (Free to access)
2022/04/25
According to TrendForce, Taiwan is crucial to the global semiconductor supply chain, accounting for a 26% market share of semiconductor revenue in 2021, ranking second in the world Its IC design and packaging & testing industries also account for a 27% and 20% global market share, ranking second and first in the world, respectively Firmly in the pole position, Taiwan accounts for 64% of the foundry market In addition to TSMC possessing the most advanced process technology at this stage, foundries including UMC, Vanguard, and PSMC also have their own process advantages Under the looming shadow of chip shortages caused by the pandemic and geopolitical turmoil in the past two years, various governments have quickly awakened to the fact that localization of chip manufacturing is necessary to avoid being cut off from chip acquisition due to logistics difficulties or cross-border shipment bans Taiwanese companies have ridden this wave to become partners that governments around the world are eager to invite to set up factories in various locales
Currently, 8-inch and 12-inch foundries are dominated by 24 fabs in Taiwan, followed by China, South Korea, and the United States Looking at new factories plans post 2021, Taiwan still accounts for the largest number of new fabs, including six new plants in progress, followed in activity by China and the United States, with plans for four and three new fabs, respectively Due to the advantages and uniqueness of Taiwanese fabs in terms of advanced processes and certain special processes, they accepted invitations to set up plants in various countries, unlike non-Taiwanese foundries who largely still build fabs locally Therefore, Taiwanese manufacturers have successively announced factory expansions at locations including the United States, China, Japan, and Singapore in addition to Taiwan in consideration of local client needs and technical cooperation
The focus of Taiwan's key technologies and production expansion remains in Taiwan, accounting for 44% of global wafer production capacity by 2025
In 2022, Taiwan will account for approximately 48% of global 12-inch equivalent wafer foundry production capacity Only looking at 12-inch wafer production capacity with more than 50% market share, the market share of advanced processes below 16nm (inclusive) will be as high as 61% However, as Taiwanese manufacturers expand their production globally, TrendForce estimates that the market share held by Taiwan's local foundry capacity will drop slightly to 44% in 2025, of which the market share of 12-inch wafer capacity will fall to 47% and advanced manufacturing processes to approximately 58% However, Taiwanese foundries’ recent production expansion plans remain focused on Taiwan including TSMC's most advanced N3 and N2 nodes, while companies such as UMC, Vanguard, and PSMC retain several new factory projects in Hsinchu, Miaoli, and Tainan
TrendForce believes, since Taiwanese foundries have announced plans to build fabs in China, the United States, Japan, and Singapore, and foundries in numerous countries are also actively expanding production, Taiwan's market share of foundry capacity will drop slightly in 2025 However, semiconductor enclaves do not come together quickly The integrity of a supply chain relies on the synergy among upstream (raw materials, equipment, and wafers), midstream (IP design services, IC design, manufacturing, and packaging and testing), and downstream (brands and distributors) sectors Taiwan has advantages in talent, geographical convenience and industrial enclaves Therefore, Taiwanese foundries still tend to focus on Taiwan for R&D and production expansion Looking at the existing blueprint for production expansion, Taiwan will still control 44% of the world's foundry capacity by 2025 and as much as 58% of the world's capacity for advanced processes, continuing its dominance of the global semiconductor industry
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/04/12
According to TrendForce, the consumer electronics market will feel the brunt of the weakening stay-at-home economy, the pandemic in China, international tensions, and rising inflation in 1H22 Coupled with the traditional off-season, demand for relevant applications such as PCs, laptops, TVs, and smartphones has cooled significantly and downstream customers have successively downgraded their shipment targets for the year, while demand for automotive, Internet of Things, communications, and servers products remain good At the same time, the supply chain will build higher inventories in general to mitigate the risk of material shortages due to transportation impediments induced by the spread of the pandemic and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine
1 Foundries
Due to the prolonged lead-time of semiconductor equipment and limited new capacity in 1Q22, the overall foundry capacity utilization rate remains fully loaded, in particular, component mismatch issues continue for parts produced at mature nodes (1Xnm~180nm) Looking forward to the second quarter, although growth in global wafer production capacity remains limited, due to weak demand for end products, continuing international tension, and China's forced lockdowns and supervision due to the recent spread of the pandemic, there is an opportunity for the supply chain to obtain a more adequate supply of wafers that were previously squeezed by production capacity
2 Servers
The overall supply of key server materials improved slightly in 1Q22 In addition, due to increasing orders from ultra-large data centers, the general supply cycle of NetCom chips such as LAN IC/chip remains as long as approximately 40 weeks but the demand gap can be bridged by instituting urgent order fees, mitigating actual impact As the aforementioned situation eases, additional orders for ODM motherboard production are moving briskly, prompting continued stocking of FPGAs and PMICs materials NetCom chips are also overstocked and the overall market has a reached a "rich get richer" mindset Material shortages at second-tier ODMs still stifle the production of motherboards for a small number of customers but does not affect the overall server market supply With improvements in material supply, server shipments will increase significantly in 2Q22, growing an estimated 158% QoQ to 36 million units
3 Smartphones
Affected by sluggish seasonal demand, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and rising inflation, market demand has cooled Thus, material delivery issues in the supply chain have eased compared to 2H21 Although there is still a shortage of certain components, most of these shortages are concentrated in mid/low-end smartphone products The lead time for 4G and low-end 5G SoCs is approximately 30 to 40 weeks, which is limited by production capacity planning Since last year, the demand of the mid/low-end mobile phone market has not been met This is followed by A+G sensors with a lead time of approximately 32~36 weeks and OLED DDIC and Touch IC with a lead time of 20~22 weeks The production volume of smartphones in 2Q22 will be affected by the interaction of the aforementioned factors with a forecast production volume of 323 million units, or only 6% QoQ, which is lower than the performance of previous years
4 Notebooks
Also affected by weakening end market demand, discounting client SSDs that are no longer oversupplied, Type C IC, WiFi, and PMIC all currently boast long lead times, with Type C IC the lengthiest at 20~25 weeks However, compared with TrendForce’s assessment at the beginning of this year, the delivery cycle has not grown longer, so the lead time of these three types of products is expected to improve by the end of 2Q22 As supply chain backlog continues to improve, shipments of notebook computers (including Chromebooks) is expected to reach approximately 551 million units in 2Q22, down 07% QoQ
5 MLCC Passive Components
From the perspective of other key components, taking MLCC as an example, demand for major consumer electronic products such as mobile phones, laptops, tablets, and TVs declined significantly in 1Q22, resulting in high consumer product specification MLCC inventory levels held by original suppliers and channel agents and this situation may continue into 2Q22 At present, the stocking momentum for automotive and industrial MLCCs has steadily increased, while consumer specification products have yet to escape the pattern of oversupply In 2Q22, the MLCC market has the opportunity to alleviate its component mismatch issues through gradually increased production capacity and automotive and server ICs supplied by semiconductor IDM companies, driving stocking momentum at automotive power, server, fast charging, and charging/energy storage equipment OEMs Vehicle and industrial MLCCs have the opportunity to become primary growth drivers in 2Q22 with Murata, TDK, Taiyu and Yageo as the primary beneficiaries Consumer specification products, which account for the bulk of MLCC production from suppliers in Taiwan, South Korea, and China, may face continued market demand weakness in 2Q22 due to a slowdown in demand for mobile phones and laptops and continuing inventory adjustment by branded companies and ODMs
Looking forward to 2Q22, not including servers, demand for end products related to the consumer category remains weak Components that were originally oversupplied will face more severe price tests due to the imbalance between supply and demand In terms of materials in serious short supply, more output will be transferred to products with strong demand through the deployment of internal production capacity TrendForce believes that from the changes in PC market conditions, it can be seen in rapid changes in demand, purchasing behavior has quickly switched from the former over-ordering strategy to actively cutting orders, inducing supply chains to buck the seasonal trends of previous years Due to the accelerated recent spread of Omicron in China and under the country’s dynamic zero-COVID policy, mandatory and sudden lockdown and control measures may cause local manufacturers to face multiple and complex supply chain problems, which will be detrimental to market performance
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
