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Keyword:Joanne Chiao,
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2022/03/17
A powerful magnitude 73 earthquake occurred off the coast of Fukushima, Japan on the evening of March 16th (CST) Most of northeastern Japan is a production center for global upstream semiconductor raw materials According to TrendForce investigations, in the main quake zone, only Kioxia’s K1 Fab (located in Kitakami) will face the possibility of a further downgrade to 1Q22 production Some of the remaining memory or semiconductor companies in the region are conducting machine inspections but the overall impact has been muted
In terms of memory, the intensity of the earthquake at Kioxia’s K1 Fab reached magnitude 5 When the earthquake occurred, wafer input was partially damaged At present, K1 Fab has been shut down for inspection The 1Q22 production capacity of the K1 Fab had been downgraded following the recent contamination incident and accounts for approximately 8% of Kioxia's 2022 production capacity Operating under a cloud of possible aftershocks, Kioxia's capacity utilization rate may be slow to recover in the next week, causing further downward revision of K1 Fab’s 1Q22 production The remaining Kioxia factories are unaffected, as is Micron's Hiroshima plant
Looking at the market spot price, pricing has moved up since February due to the contamination of Kioxia’s raw materials The Russian-Ukrainian war did not trigger significant upward or downward movements in spot price After last night’s Fukushima earthquake, pricing remains stable TrendForce asserts, overall spot demand remains weak and prices are not prone to drastic changes
In terms of raw wafers, SUMCO's Yonezawa Plant in Yamagata and Shin-Etsu's Shirakawa Plant in Fukushima are both within the affected area, experiencing an earthquake intensity of magnitude 5 Due to the extremely high stability required in the crystal growth process, the industry has not yet announced the impact of the quake TrendForce specifies, in addition to shutdown inspections, damage to machines and silicon wafer input is inevitable However, in addition to redistributing production plans, buildings were reinforced after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan, so overall damage may be minor
In terms of foundries, there are two 12-inch wafer fabs and two 8-inch wafer fabs in Japan, including UMC Fab12M (12-inch), Tower Uozu (12-inch), Tonami (8-inch), Arai (8 inches), located in Mie, Toyama, and Niigata prefectures, respectively, and separately experiencing quake magnitudes from 1 to 3 At present, these fabs are operating normally and any impact of the quake on the plants are largely insignificant However, IDM manufacturer Renesas’ Naka plant is within the magnitude 5 zone and they have also shut down and reduced production to confirm the impact of the quake
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/03/14
The output value of the world’s top 10 foundries in 4Q21 reached US$2955 billion, or 83% growth QoQ, according to TrendForce’s research This is due to the interaction of two major factors One is limited growth in overall production capacity At present, the shortage of certain components for TVs and laptops has eased but there are other peripheral materials derived from mature process such as PMIC, Wi-Fi, and MCU that are still in short supply, precipitating continued fully loaded foundry capacity Second is rising average selling price (ASP) In the fourth quarter, more expensive wafers were produced in succession led by TSMC and foundries continued to adjust their product mix to increase ASP In terms of changes in this quarter's top 10 ranking, Nexchip overtook incumbent DB Hitek to clinch 10th place
TrendForce believes that the output value of the world’s top ten foundries will maintain a growth trend in 1Q22 but appreciation in ASP will still be the primary driver of said growth However, since there are fewer first quarter working days in the Greater China Area due to the Lunar New Year holiday and this is the time when some foundries schedule an annual maintenance period, 1Q22 growth rate will be down slightly compared to 4Q21
Top 5 foundries account for nearly 90% of global market share, Samsung recovers share with advanced processes
Looking at the top five industry players, TSMC’s 4Q21 revenue reached US$1575 billion, a QoQ increase of 58% Although 5nm revenue spiked thanks to the new iPhone, 7/6nm revenue dropped due to a weak Chinese smartphone market, becoming the only TSMC node in decline in 4Q21, and inducing a contraction in TSMC revenue growth in 4Q21, though TSMC still accounts for more than 50% of global market share As one of TSMC’s few competitors in advanced processes below 7nm, Samsung strengthened 4Q21 revenue to US$554 billion, a quarterly increase of 153% owing to the gradual completion of new advanced 5/4nm process capacity and the mass production of new flagship products from major client Qualcomm Although Samsung's foundry business has posted record revenue, the slower ramp-up of advanced process capacity continues to erode overall profitability Therefore, TrendForce believes that improving advanced process capacity and yield in 1Q22 is one of Samsung’s top priorities
Constrained by limited growth in new production capacity and the fact that the new wave of wafers contracted at the latest pricing has yet to be produced, UMC's revenue stalled slightly in 4Q21, to US$212 billion, up 58% QoQ GlobalFoundries benefited from the release of new production capacity, product mix optimization, and new long-term agreement (LTA) pricing, pushing up ASP performance Revenue in 4Q22 hit US$185 billion, up 86% QoQ SMIC posted 4Q21 revenue of US$158 billion, 116% QoQ, due to mounting demand for products such as HV, MCU, Ultra Low Power Logic, and Specialty Memory as well as factors such as product mix adjustment and appreciating ASP
Surpassing DB Hitek, Nexchip officially breaks into the top 10 in 4Q21
The foundries ranked 6th to 9th are HuaHong Group, PSMC, Vanguard International Semiconductor (VIS), and Tower Semiconductor (Tower), respectively Each has benefiting from factors such as a utilization rate uniformly at full capacity, release of new production capacity, and adjustment of ASP and product mix, sustaining the growth of revenue performance It is worth mentioning, the acquisition of Tower by Intel netted Intel mature process technologies and a customer base and expanded the diversity and production capacity of its foundry business However, before this transaction is officially completed, Tower is still considered an independent entity in terms of the accounting process TrendForce states, after Intel's foundry business is properly integrated with Tower, Intel will officially enter the ranking of top ten foundries
Coming in 10th on the top 10 foundry ranking is Nexchip with revenue of US$352 million and a quarterly growth rate of 442%, the fastest growth rate among the top ten, and officially surpassed DB Hitek According to TrendForce investigations, the primary reason Nexchip was able to break into the top 10 in 4Q21 was the company's diligent production expansion Nexchip also plans to develop more advanced processes such as the 55/40/28nm nodes and multiple product lines including TDDI, CIS, and MCU, to compensate for its current single product line and limited customer base Since Nexchip is currently ramping-up operations quickly, its growth performance in 2022 should not be underestimated
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/02/24
Since February 14, UMC subsidiary Hejian Technology (HJTC), had entered phased shutdown and temporary suspension due to the pandemic, according to TrendForce's investigation The plant is an 8-inch fab and its production capacity accounts for approximately 25% of UMC's total 8-inch capacity and approximately 3% of global 8-inch capacity Since this incident was not an unforeseen accident, utilization rate during the phased shutdown was maintained at roughly 25~30% and wafers on the production line did not need to be scrapped The plant has gradually resumed operation today (2/24) Since it takes approximately five to seven days to recalibrate semiconductor equipment, full recovery of overall utilization rate is expected to fall in early March with an estimated wafer input loss of 14~20 days, affecting approximately 4~5% of the company's 8-inch production capacity this quarter or approximately 04~05% of global 8-inch production capacity, a manageable situation overall
UMC HJTC Fab 8N contains 05μm~011μm node production lines and is a full eight-inch fab The actual proportion of customer products on the production line at the time of the incident is as follows: HJTC’s largest client Silergy accounted for 40% of the production line for PMICs, with most end applications being consumer and industrial products such as IP cams, air conditioners, and refrigerators SinoWealth and Novatek each accounted for 13% of the production line with products such as MCUs and large size DDIs Other PMIC clients include Mediatek and GMT who accounted for approximately 35% of the plant's production capacity
Since most customer products allocated to this fab are simultaneously produced at the UMC fab in Taiwan or at other fabs and end-user products including smartphones, TVs, and laptops are all currently in the off-season, restocking momentum is weak TrendForce believes that although the shutdown was longer than expected, since no wafers were scrapped on the production line and the cycle time of some PMICs is short, wafer input losses have an opportunity to be mitigated through expedited order production and have limited impact on shipments In terms of revenue, due to the relatively low selling price of 8-inch wafers, the impact of this incident on UMC’s annual revenue performance falls within a 03% range
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/02/16
Intel officially confirmed on February 15 that it will acquire Israeli foundry Tower Semiconductor for nearly US$6 billion, and the deal will likely contribute to the growth of Intel’s foundry business if it reaches a successful conclusion, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations Tower was 9th place in the global ranking of foundries by revenue for 4Q21 and operates a total of seven production sites across Israel, the US, and Japan Tower’s foundry capacity in 12-inch wafer equivalents accounts for about 3% of the global total The majority share of Tower’s foundry capacity is for 8-inch wafers, and Tower’s share of the global 8-inch wafer foundry capacity is around 62% Regarding manufacturing process platforms, Tower offers nodes ranging from 08µm to 65nm It has a diverse range of specialty process technologies for manufacturing products in relatively small quantities Products that Tower has been contracted to manufacture are mostly RF-SOI components, PMICs, CMOS sensors, discretes, etc As such, the Tower acquisition is expected to help Intel expand its presence in the smartphone, industrial equipment, and automotive electronics markets
Although Intel undertook a series of business strategies to compete with TSMC and Samsung, IFS (Intel Foundry Services) has historically manufactured with platform technologies for processors such as CPUs and GPUs Furthermore, competition still persists between Intel and certain foundry clients that require advanced processes below the 10nm node, such as AMD and Nvidia, which have long histories of developing server products, PC CPUs, GPUs, or other HPC-related chips Intel’s preexisting competitive relationship with these companies may become a barrier to IFS’ future expansion because IFS will be relatively unlikely to attract them as customers
Taking the aforementioned factors into account, TrendForce believes that the Tower acquisition will likely expand IFS’ business presence in the foundry industry through two considerations First of all, the acquisition will help Intel both diversify its mature process technologies and expand its clientele Thanks to advancements in communication technologies and an increase in demand for new energy vehicles, there has been a recent surge in demand for RF-SOI components and PMICs Tower's long-term focus on the diverse mature process technologies used to manufacture these products means it also possesses a long-term collaborative relationship with clients in such markets By acquiring Tower, Intel is therefore able to address IFS' limited foundry capabilities and limited clientele The second consideration pertains to the indigenization of semiconductor manufacturing and supply allocations, which have become increasingly important issues in light of current geopolitical situations As Tower operates fabs in Asia, EMEA, and North America, the acquisition is in line with Intel’s current strategic aim to reduce the disproportionate concentration of the foundry industry’s supply chain in Asia As well, Intel holds long-term investments and operates fabs in both the US and Israel, so the Tower acquisition will give Intel more flexibility in allocating production capacities, thereby further mitigating risks of potential supply chain disruptions arising from geopolitical conflicts
In addition to the aforementioned synergy derived from acquiring Tower, it should also be pointed out that Intel is set to welcome an upcoming partnership with Nuvoton Tower’s three Japan-based fabs were previously operated under TowerJazz Panasonic Semiconductor, a joint venture created by Tower and Panasonic in 2014, with Tower and Panasonic each possessing 51% and 49% ownership, respectively After Nuvoton acquired PSCS (Panasonic Semiconductor Solutions Co) in 2020, Panasonic’s 49% ownership of the three fabs was subsequently transferred to Nuvoton Following Intel’s Tower acquisition, Intel will now possess the 51% majority ownership of the fabs and jointly operate their production lines for industrial MCUs, automotive MCUs, and PMICs along with Nuvoton Notably, these production lines also span the range of CIS, MCU, and MOSFET technologies previously developed by Panasonic
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/02/15
Ukraine is a major supplier of raw material gases for semiconductors including neon, argon, krypton, and xenon, according to TrendForce’s investigations Ukraine supplies nearly 70% of the world's neon gas capacity Although the proportion of neon gas used in semiconductor processes is not as high as in other industries, it is still a necessary resource If the supply of materials is cut off, there will be an impact on the industry TrendForce believes that, although the Ukrainian-Russian conflict may affect the supply of inert gas regionally, semiconductor factories and gas suppliers are stocked and there are still supplies from other regions Thus, gas production line interruptions in Ukraine will not halt semiconductor production lines in the short term However, the reduction in gas supply will likely lead to higher prices which may increase the cost of wafer production
Inert gases are primarily used in semiconductor lithography processes When the circuit feature size is reduced to below 220nm, it begins to enter the territory of DUV (deep ultraviolet) light source excimer lasers The wavelength of the DUV light generated by the energy beam advances circuit feature sizes to below 180nm The inert gas mixture required in the DUV excimer laser contains neon gas Neon gas is indispensable in this mixture and, thus, difficult to replace The semiconductor lithography process that requires neon gas is primarily DUV exposure, and encompasses 8-inch wafer 180nm to 12-inch wafer 1Xnm nodes
TrendForce research shows, in terms of foundries, global production capacity at the 180~1Xnm nodes accounts for approximately 75% of total capacity Except for TSMC and Samsung, who provide advanced EUV processes, for most fabs, the proportion of revenue attributed to the 180~1Xnm nodes exceeds 90% In addition, the manufacturing processes of components in extreme short supply since 2020, including PMIC, Wi-Fi, RFIC, and MCU all fall within the 180~1Xnm node range In terms of DRAM, in addition to Micron, Korean manufacturers are gradually increasing the proportion of 1alpha nm nodes (using the EUV process) but more than 90% of production capacity still employs the DUV process In addition, all NAND Flash capacity utilizes DUV lithography technology