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2022/02/08
From 2020 to 2025, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12-inch equivalent wafer capacity at the world's top ten foundries will be approximately 10% with the majority of these companies focusing on 12-inch capacity expansion, which will see a CAGR of approximately 132%, according to TrendForce’s research In terms of 8-inch wafers, due to factors such as difficult to obtain equipment and whether capacity expansion is cost-effective, most fabs can only expand production slightly by means of capacity optimization, equating to a CAGR of only 33% In terms of demand, the products primarily derived from 8-inch wafers, PMIC and Power Discrete, are driven by demand for electric vehicles, 5G smartphones, and servers Stocking momentum has not fallen off, resulting in a serious shortage of 8-inch wafer production capacity that has festered since 2H19 Therefore, in order to mitigate competition for 8-inch capacity, a trend of shifting certain products to 12-inch production has gradually emerged However, if shortages in overall 8-inch capacity is to be effectively alleviated, it is still necessary to wait for a large number of mainstream products to migrate to 12-inch production The timeframe for this migration is estimated to be close to 2H23 into 2024
PMIC and Audio Codec gradually transferred to 12-inch production, alleviating shortage of 8-inch production capacity
At present, mainstream products produced using 8-inch wafers include large-sized panel Driver IC, CIS, MCU, PMIC, Power Discrete (including MOSFET, IGBT), Fingerprint, Touch IC, and Audio Codec Among them, there are plans to gradually migrate Audio Codec and some more severely backordered PMICs to the 12-inch process
In terms of PMICs, other than certain PMICs used in Apple iPhones already manufactured at 12-inch 55nm, most mainstream PMIC processes are still at 8-inch 018-011μm Burdened with the long-term supply shortage, IC design companies including Mediatek, Qualcomm, and Richtek have successively planned to transfer some PMICs to 12-inch 90/55nm production However, since product process conversion requires time-consuming development and verification and total current production capacity of the 90/55nm BCD process is limited, short term relief to 8-inch production capacity remains small Effective relief is expected in 2024 when large swathes of mainstream products migrate to 12-inch production
In terms of Audio Codec, Audio Codecs for laptops are primarily manufactured on 8-inch wafers, and Realtek is the main supplier In the 1H21, the squeeze on capacity delayed lead times which affected notebook computers shipments Although the stocking efforts of certain tier1 customers proceeded smoothly in the second half of the year, these products remained difficult to obtain for some small and medium-sized customers At present, Realtek has partnered with Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) to transfer the process development of laptop Audio Codecs from 8-inch to 12-inch 55nm Mass production is forecast for mid-2022 and is expected to improve Audio Codec supply
In addition to PMIC/Power Discrete, another mainstream product derived from 8-inch manufacturers is the large-sized panel Driver IC Although most fabs still manufacture 8-inch wafers, Nexchip provides a 12-inch 011-015μm process technology used to produce large-sized Driver ICs As production capacity at Nexchip grows rapidly, the supply of this product has been quite smooth However, TrendForce believes that this is a special case Mainstream large-sized Driver ICs are still manufactured on 8-inch wafers and there is no trend to switch to 12-inch wafers
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/01/10
Driven by forces such as the pandemic, geopolitics, and the digital transformation of everyday life, there has been a shortage of global foundry production capacity for nearly two years and shortages have been especially severe for mature 1Xnm~180nm nodes, according to TrendForce’s investigations Although all foundries are furiously increasing capital expenditures to expand capacity, unrealized future expansion does not ease existing supply issues In addition, the uneven distribution of supply chain resources that has exacerbated the shortage of parts and components has yet to be definitively alleviated Circumstances as a whole will continue affecting shipments of related whole devices Only the PC category is expected to emerge largely unscathed in 1Q22
Moving into 1Q22, TrendForce states, due to the limited increase in production capacity, the market's supply situation is expected to be approximately the same as in 4Q21 However, some end products have entered their traditional off-season cycle and the slowdown in demand momentum is expected to alleviate the immediate pressure on OEMs and ODMs regarding supply chain stocking
In terms of the whole servers, the FPGA delivery cycle is currently at over 50 weeks at most, while the delivery cycle of Lan chips has improved significantly, from the original 50+ weeks to approximately 40 weeks However, escalating purchase order activity caused by the uncertainty of the pandemic combined with an accumulated backlog of demand (Back order/backlog) have pushed the SMT capacity of ODMs to full load in general The aforementioned phenomenon have not only accelerated the consumption of ICs such as FPGA and PMIC, but the demand for additional purchase orders of FPGA, PMIC and MOSFET is still compelling The overall market remains tight and the production of server motherboards in the future may face hidden issues TrendForce has ascertained a more crucial matter Taking the L6 server as an example, its production scale in 1Q22 will be roughly the same as the previous quarter However, whole server shipments will show a seasonal decline with a decrease of approximately 8% QoQ
In terms of mobile phones, material shortages have gradually eased from the second half of 2021 partly due to the discretionary adjustment of mobile phone specifications Mobile phone brands can adjust their specifications and configurations based on available materials Currently, the supply of four components remains relatively tight Among them, 4G SoC (30-40 weeks) and OLED DDIC/Touch IC (20-22 weeks) have a significant impact on the market The former will affect brands that focus on selling 4G mobile phones The latter is affected by oligopolistic market structure and the adjustment of foundry capacity Thus, there are rumblings of insufficient supply Though the supply of the remaining two items, PMIC and A+G Sensor, remains tight, material shortage risk can be largely mitigated through alternative material replacements or the adjustment of specifications and configurations In terms of production, the 1Q22 supply chain will essentially carry on its performance from the previous quarter However, due to disappointing holiday demand at the end of 2021, mobile phone brands must adjust the distributed inventory level of finished products in a timely manner Combined with uncertainty caused by disruptions stemming from a winter-time pandemic, 1Q22 production performance is estimated to fall by approximately 13% QoQ
In terms of PCs and laptops, starting from November 2021, material shortages have been partially alleviated Therefore, the shipment volume of PC ODMs in 4Q21 has been revised upwards Compared with mobile phones and whole servers, the impact of under/oversupply of materials on end PCs and notebooks is relatively minor Except for the SSD PCIe 30 controller, current tightness exhibited in component supply is due to delays in the transition of Intel’s new platform This temporary shortfall has led to a delivery cycle of approximately 8-12 weeks while any tightness in the supply of Type C IC, WiFi, and PMIC is gradually abating TrendForce expects that, as overall supply chain stability recuperates, notebook shipments from ODM brands in 1Q22 will only decrease by 51% QoQ However, if the component shortage factor is discounted, subsequent sales originating from various distribution channels will be another major variable TrendForce must consider
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/01/05
A fire occurred at ASML’s factory in Berlin, Germany on January 3, according to TrendForce’s investigations ASML is the largest supplier of key equipment (including EUV and DUV) required for foundry and memory production According to TrendForce’s preliminary inquiry, approximately 200m2 out of a factory floor covering 32,000m2 was affected by the fire This factory primarily manufactures optical components used in lithography systems such as wafer tables, reticle chucks, and mirror blocks Reticle chucks used for affixing photomasks are in short supply Currently, the majority of components produced at this factory go towards supplying EUV machines while the lion’s share of demand for these products come from foundries If the fire delays component delivery, it cannot be ruled out that ASML will prioritize the allocation of output towards fulfilling foundry orders
Lead time for this exclusive supply of key EUV machines has been long and may affect the timeframe of advanced manufacturing process transition
In terms of foundries, EUV is primarily used in advanced manufacturing processes smaller than the 7nm node Currently, the only companies in the world using this equipment for manufacturing are TSMC and Samsung including TSMC’s 7nm, 5nm, 3nm nodes, Samsung's EUV Line (7nm, 5nm and 4nm) built in Hwaseong, South Korea, and 3nm GAA node However, due to factors such as the shortage of global foundry production capacity and the active expansion of manufacturing, semiconductor equipment lead times are also stretching further into the future
In terms of DRAM, Samsung and SK Hynix are already using EUV in their 1Znm and 1alpha nm processes, while US manufacturer Micron is expected to introduce EUV to their 1gamma nm process in 2024 According to TrendForce's current information, the lead time on ASML EUV equipment is approximately 12 to 18 months Due to this long equipment lead time, ASML is at liberty to wait for the completion of replace components for those lost in the fire during the time necessary for equipment assembly
Overall, the ASML Berlin factory fire will have a greater impact on the manufacturing of EUV lithography equipment when it comes to foundries and memory According to TrendForce’s information, it cannot be ruled out that ASML will obtain necessary components from other factory campuses In addition, the current lead time for EUV equipment is quite long Therefore, the actual impact on EUV supply remains to be seen
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/01/04
An earthquake that was around magnitude 60 on the Richter scale occurred off the east coast of Taiwan at 5:46PM local time on January 3, 2022 As most local DRAM and foundry fabs are located in the northern and central parts of the island, TrendForce’s latest investigations reveal no notable damages to the equipment from the fabs Therefore, the production side is expected to continue normal operation, and the actual impact of the earthquake on the output of Taiwan’s DRAM and foundry industries will likely be limited Taiwan’s memory fabs, including those operated by MTTW, Nanya, and other smaller semiconductor companies, collectively account for about 21% of the global DRAM production capacity In the foundry industry, Taiwan’s fabs, including those operated by TSMC, UMC, Vanguard, PSMC, etc, together make up as much as 51% of the global production capacity
Regarding the current state of the DRAM market, it is in midst of the conventional off-season However, the recent easing of component gaps in the supply chain is generating some stock-up activities in different application segments and thus bolstering the overall demand The headwinds of the off-season are not as strong as usual Also, there are now concerns brewing in the wider memory market about the supply side being affected by the COVID-19 lockdown in the Chinese city of Xi’an Consequently, memory spot prices have been registering daily hikes lately It is worth noting that increases in DRAM spot prices have been more significant than the increases in NAND Flash spot prices Regarding DRAM contract prices, TrendForce for now maintains its original forecast of QoQ drops in the 8-13% range for 1Q22 However, the latest earthquake that struck Taiwan could affect DRAM buyers’ behavior at any time How contract prices will actually end up is something that requires further observation As for DRAM spot trading, the memory spot market of Mainland China was still in midst of the year-end holiday on January 3 Hence, spot traders were passive for the most part TrendForce will continue monitoring the spot market to see if the earthquake is going to be a positive driver going forward
Turning to the current state of the foundry market, the chip demand related to some categories of end products has slowed down a bit recently because of seasonality However, demand remains quite strong for chips that were previously in short supply, such as PMIC, Wi-Fi SoC, etc Foundry fabs on the whole are still operating with a fully loaded capacity because demand continues to outstrip supply The fabs of Taiwan-based foundries, including TSMC, UMC, PSMC, and Vanguard, are concentrated in Hsinchu, Taichung, and Tainan In those places, an earthquake intensity scale of 3 or under was recorded As such, no foundry fab in Taiwan has halted operation because of the earthquake, and all fabs are operating normally at the moment
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2021/10/28
While the global electronics supply chain experienced a chip shortage, the corresponding shortage of foundry capacities also led various foundries to raise their quotes, resulting in an over 20% YoY increase in the total annual revenues of the top 10 foundries for both 2020 and 2021, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations The top 10 foundries’ annual revenue for 2021 is now expected to surpass US$100 billion As TSMC leads yet another round of price hikes across the industry, annual foundry revenue for 2022 will likely reach US$11769 billion, a 133% YoY increase
Foundries will gradually kick off production with newly added capacities in 2H22 in response to the ongoing chip shortage
TrendForce indicates that the combined CAPEX of the top 10 foundries surpassed US$50 billion in 2021, a 43% YoY increase As new fab constructions and equipment move-ins gradually conclude next year, their combined CAPEX for 2022 is expected to undergo a 15% YoY increase and fall within the US$50-60 billion range In addition, now that TSMC has officially announced the establishment of a new fab in Japan, total foundry CAPEX will likely increase further next year TrendForce expects the foundry industry’s total 8-inch and 12-inch wafer capacities to increase by 6% YoY and 14% YoY next year, respectively
Although the manufacturing costs of 8-inch and 12-inch wafer fabrication equipment are roughly equal, the ASP of 8-inch wafers falls short compared with 12-inch wafers, meaning it is generally less cost-effective for foundries to expand their 8-inch wafer capacities That is why the increase in 8-inch capacity is also expected to fall short of the increase in 12-inch capacity next year Regarding 12-inch wafer foundry services, the 1Xnm and more mature nodes, which currently represent the most severe shortage among all manufacturing process technologies, will account for more than 50% of the newly added wafer capacities next year On the other hand, while Chinese foundries, such as Hua Hong Wuxi and Nexchip, account for most of the newly added 12-inch wafer capacities this year, TSMC and UMC will comprise the majority of 12-inch wafer capacity expansions in 2022 These two foundries will primarily focus on expanding the production capacities allocated to the 40nm and 28nm nodes, both of which are currently in extreme shortage As a result, the ongoing chip shortage will likely be alleviated somewhat in 2022
Chip shortages will show signs of easing, but component gaps will continue to impact the production of some end products
Application segments such as consumer electronics (such as notebook computers), automotive electronics, and most connected digital appliances are now being impacted by the shortages of peripheral components made with the 28nm and more mature nodes The undersupply of the said components will probably begin to moderate somewhat in 2H22 if foundries proceed to activate their newly added production capacity However, just as there will be signs indicating an easing of capacity crunch for the 40nm and 28nm nodes, the tightening of production capacity for 8-inch wafers and 1Xnm nodes is going to be an important development that warrants close attention in 2022
Regarding 8-inch wafer foundry services, the overall production capacity growth has been limited while the demand related to PMICs has increased multiple folds The growth of this particular application has to do with the increasing market penetration of 5G smartphones and electric vehicles Under this circumstance, PMICs continue to take up the available production capacity of 8-inch wafers, and wafer production lines that deploy ≦018µm nodes are now expected to operate at fully-loaded capacity to the end of 2022 Hence, the capacity crunch for 8-inch wafers will not ease in the short term
As for 1Xnm nodes, the number of foundries that are offering these more advanced process technologies is gradually shrinking The reason is that following the migration to FinFET in the general development of semiconductor manufacturing, the costs associated with R&D and capacity expansions have risen higher and higher TSMC, Samsung, and GlobalFoundries are now the only three foundries in the world that possess 1Xnm technologies Also, GlobalFoundries is the only one among these three to undertake a marginal capacity expansion for its 1Xnm node next year The other two currently have no plan to raise 1Xnm production capacity in 2022
In the aspect of demand, the kinds of chips that are made with 1Xnm nodes include the following: 4G SoCs, 5G RF transceivers, and Wi-Fi SoCs equipped in smartphones, as well as TV SoCs, chips for Wi-Fi routers, and FPGAs/ASICs Due to the increasing market penetration of 5G smartphones, 5G RF transceivers will take up a massive portion of the overall 1Xnm production capacity This will, in turn, significantly limit the available wafer capacity allocated to other products Furthermore, demand has been rising over the years for smartphones that are equipped with 1Xnm Wi-Fi SoCs and Wi-Fi routers that contain 1Xnm chips The supply of these components is already very limited at this moment and will get tighter in 2022 because the overall 1Xnm production capacity will not be raised by a significant amount
In sum, there are several takeaways from this focus on the potential developments in the foundry market next year First, the major foundries have now announced capacity expansions with the emphasis on addressing the capacity crunch for the 40nm and 28nm nodes Their newly added production capacity is expected to enter operation next year, following two consecutive years of chip shortages This will bring some relief to the undersupply situation, which is already very severe at this moment However, the actual chip output contribution from the newly added production capacity will mainly take place no earlier than 2H22, or during the middle of the traditional peak season With stock-up activities across the supply chain expected to reach a higher level of intensity at that time because of preparations for holiday sales, the easing of the capacity crunch in the foundry market will not be especially noticeable
Second, it is worth pointing out that even though supply will loosen slightly for some 40/28nm chips, the lack of production capacity for 01Xµm chips on 8-inch wafers and 1Xnm chips on 12-inch wafers will likely remain a serious bottleneck in the supply chain Currently, production capacity is already quite insufficient for 01Xµm 8-inch wafers and 1Xnm 12-inch wafers Next year, the related capacity growth is also expected to be fairly limited In sum, TrendForce believes that the foundry market will continue to experience some tightness in production capacity during 2022 Although the undersupply situation will moderate for some components, the persistent issue of component gaps will also continue to adversely affect the production of certain end products
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
