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2021/03/11
The third-generation semiconductor industry was impaired by the US-China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic successively from 2018 to 2020, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations During this period, the semiconductor industry on the whole saw limited upward momentum, in turn leading to muted growth for the 3rd gen semiconductor segment as well However, this segment is likely to enter a rapid upturn owing to high demand from automotive, industrial, and telecom applications In particular, the GaN power device market will undergo the fastest growth, with a $61 million revenue, a 906% YoY increase, projected for 2021
TrendForce expects three factors to drive the rapid growth of the GaN and SiC markets in 2021: First, widespread vaccinations are projected to drastically curb the spread of the pandemic, thereby galvanizing a stable increase in the demand for base station components, as well as for components used in industrial energy transition, such as power inverters and converters Secondly, as Tesla began adopting SiC MOSFET designs for its in-house inverters used in Model 3 vehicles, the automotive industry has started to place increasing importance on 3rd gen semiconductors Finally, China will invest enormous capital into its 14th five-year plan starting this year and expand its 3rd gen semiconductor production capacity to ultimately achieve semiconductor independence
Resurging demand from EV, industrial, and telecom sectors will bring about a corresponding increase in 3rd gen semiconductor device revenue
Although certain foundries, such as TSMC and VIS, have been attempting to manufacture GaN devices with 8-inch wafers, 6-inch wafers are still the mainstream As the pandemic shows signs of a slowdown, the demand for RF front end in 5G base stations, for smartphone chargers, and for automotive on-board chargers has now gradually risen As such, total yearly revenue from GaN RF devices is projected to reach US$680 million, a 308% increase YoY, in 2021, whereas GaN power device revenue is projected to reach $61 million, which is a 906% increase YoY
In particular, the remarkable increase in GaN power device revenue can primarily be attributed to the release of fast chargers from smartphone brands, such as Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo, starting in 2018 These chargers enjoyed excellent market reception thanks to their effective heat dissipation and small footprint Some notebook computer manufacturers are currently looking to adopt fast charging technology for their notebook chargers as well Going forward, TrendForce expects more smartphone and notebook chargers to feature GaN power devices, leading to a peak YoY increase in GaN power device revenue in 2022, after which there will be a noticeable slowdown in its upward trajectory as GaN power devices become widely adopted by charger manufacturers
On the other hand, 6-inch wafer capacities for SiC devices have been in relative shortage, since SiC substrates are widely used in RF front end and power devices TrendForce expects yearly SiC power device revenue to reach $680 million, a 32% increase YoY, in 2021 Major substrate suppliers, including Cree, II-VI, and STMicroelectronics, are planning to manufacture 8-inch SiC substrates, but the short supply of SiC substrates will unlikely be resolved until 2022
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
2020/11/16
Demand for end-devices saw a continued growth due to the rise of the stay-at-home economy brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2Q20, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations As US sanctions against shipping chips manufactured with US equipment and technologies to Huawei took effect on September 15, various OSAT companies rushed to make deliveries prior to the September 15 deadline Driven by this wave of urgent orders, the top 10 largest OSAT companies’ quarterly revenue reached US$6759 billion in 3Q20, a 129% increase YoY
Revenue-wise, ASE took leadership position in the foundry industry, while Amkor trailed behind in second place in 3Q20 The two companies’ revenues reached US$152 billion and US$1354 billion, with YoY growths of 151% and 249%, respectively While their revenue growths in 3Q20 were somewhat slower than in 2Q20, their overall revenue performances were relatively outstanding, thanks to rising demand for 5G communications, WiFi 6, and automotive chips, as well as urgent orders from Huawei Although major OSAT company PTI recorded quarterly revenue of $647 million in 3Q20, a 142 % increase YoY, the lower-than-expected packaging and testing demand for memory products has compelled PTI to revamp its business model by lowering its long-term dependence on memory product packaging PTI is also selling and closing its various less-profitable subsidiaries in response to the lowering memory packaging demand
TFME’s quarterly revenue reached $398 million in 3Q20, a 13% increase YoY Among the three Chinese OSAT heavyweights (JCET, TFME, and Hua Tian), TFME was the only company to improve its revenue YoY, owing to skyrocketing back-end packaging demand for AMD CPU and GPU chips On the other hand, as Huawei was still the primary client of SPIL and KYEC in 3Q20, the two OSAT companies both benefitted from urgent orders placed by Huawei and posted $897 million and $251 million in revenue, for a 175% and an 116% increase YoY, respectively
Chipbond and ChipMOS each increased their quarterly revenues by 131% and 124% YoY to reach $197 million and $194 million, respectively, in 3Q20 This growth took place because of a continued surge in LDDI (large display driver IC), TDDI, and iPhone 12 OLED DDI demand, in addition to flat-trending demand for ChipMOS’ memory product packaging services The aforementioned factors also contributed to Chipbond’s ninth-place rank on the top 10 list, up from its 10th-place finish in 2Q20
TrendForce analyst John Wang indicates that the revenue performance of the OSAT industry may potentially see further room for growth in 4Q20, as demand for end products such as automotive panels, large-sized panels, 5G communications, and WiFi 6 chips makes a gradual recovery
2020/08/13
The border restrictions and national lockdowns instituted by various governments due to the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact in 1Q20 resulted in low inventory levels for clients of packaging and testing (OSAT, outsourced semiconductor assembly and test) companies and for distribution channels as well, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations As the supply chain gradually recovered in 2Q20, governments began instituting fiscal policies to stimulate the economy These factors, combined with the rise of the stay-at-home economy, led to an increased restocking demand from downstream clients, in turn providing a boost to OSAT revenue, which reached US$6325 billion in 2Q20, a 266% increase YoY
TrendForce analyst John Wang indicates that, in spite of downstream OSAT clients’ restocking demand, end-market demand is still likely to be limited in 2H20 because of hostile China-US relations, which have recently reached rock bottom owing to issues such as restrictions placed on Huawei, passage of the Hong Kong national security law, and territorial disputes in the South China Sea Also contributing to the gloomy outlook of the OSAT industry is the continued spread of the pandemic in areas including the US, South America, India, and Southeast Asia
China-US relations and the pandemic’s outlook are key factors determining global OSAT revenue in 2H20
Market leader ASE recorded quarterly revenue of $1379 billion in 2Q20, an 189% increase YoY Although ASE’s growth in 2Q20 tempered somewhat compared with 1Q20, the company’s upward momentum remained steady, thanks to increased OSAT demand from the 5G telecommunications and consumer electronics industries On the other hand, Amkor, SPIL, Powertech, and KYEC benefitted from their increased OSAT capacity for consumer electronics, memory products, and 5G chips The four companies each registered more than 30% YoY growths in revenue Furthermore, these OSAT companies accelerated their shipment schedules in 2Q20, driven by redirected orders resulting from the pandemic and by the September 15th deadline after which US-based OEMs will terminate manufacturing services for Huawei
Chinese OSAT giants JCET, TSHT, and TFME each saw an estimated near-30% YoY increase in revenue in 2Q20 as a result of high OSAT demand from smartphones, AI chips, and wearables in China, where the pandemic was effectively brought under control Finally, ChipMOS and Chipbond each posted a 166% and 48% YoY increase in revenue in 2Q20 Their performances were mostly attributed to the recovering large-sized display panel demand and sales performances in the retail markets, which led to high LDDI and TDDI capacity utilization rates
2020/07/13
RF front-end component IDM and foundry revenues will be affected under the dual influences of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Chinese government’s policy of decoupling from the US, driven by the ever-intensifying US-China trade war that began in 2019, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations Lowered demand for telecommunications end-devices in 2020 is also expected to lead to a bearish market for GaAs RF front end as well GaAs RF front end revenue is projected to reach US$5793 billion this year, a 38% decline YoY
TrendForce analyst John Wang indicates that RF front end components can be classified according to their applications in various telecommunication devices These applications include PA (power amplifiers), LNA (low noise amplifiers), and filters Of the above applications, the GaAs compound semiconductor is particularly suited for use in PA components because of its high temperature resistance, high usable frequency range, and low noise under high frequencies Furthermore, the number of PA components used in smartphones has increased along with the jump in cellular frequencies For instance, 4G smartphones contain on average 5 to 7 PA parts per unit, while 5G smartphones contain 10 to 14 parts
Despite continued impact from the US-China trade war, RF revenue is expected to recover in 2021 due to 5G development
Given the ever-intensifying US-China trade war, in which the US government increased tariffs on Chinese goods imported into the US, the Chinese government attempted to respond by instituting a policy of decoupling from the US and by importing goods and services from other countries instead Nonetheless, China still depends on US-based IDMs for PA components and RF modules due to its insufficient R&D competencies for RF front end components Although the trade war has lowered US IDMs’ revenues earned from Chinese clients, the fact that Chinese smartphone manufacturers must import some products from these IDMs means US IDMs were able to maintain their bottom lines to a certain extent In 1Q20, Qorvo’s revenue grew by 157% YoY to reach $788 million, while Skyworks’ revenue decreased by 55% YoY to reach $766 million
The overall GaAs foundry revenue was likewise disrupted by the US-China trade war in 1H19 In 2H19, however, under the influence of China’s decoupling from US goods and services, Chinese IC design companies decided to directly purchase from WIN Semiconductor Corp and AWSC In 1Q20, WIN’s revenue grew by 678% YoY to reach $201 million, while AWSC’s revenue also increased by 1626% to reach $27 million On the other hand, GCS’ performance during the same period was relatively mediocre, registering a $12 million revenue, a 28% decrease YoY, in 1Q20, since operations at its primary fab, located in California, were affected by the pandemic
TrendForce expects revenues of major RF front end IDMs to potentially make a rebound from rock bottom in 2021, as the global build-out of 5G base stations accelerates, and 5G handsets account for an increasing share of smartphone manufacturers’ yearly production At the same time, some foundries are also likely to benefit from these circumstances, with the overall GaAs foundry revenue making an expected rebound as well
2020/05/14
According to TrendForce’s latest investigations, owing to the gradual easing of the China-US trade war and increased packaging and testing demand for 5G, AI chips, and smartphones, the global packaging and testing (OSAT, outsourced semiconductor assembly and test) industry was able to sustain the upward trend of its quarterly revenue in 1Q20 The global top 10 OSAT companies’ revenues combined for US$5903 billion in 1Q20, a 253% increase YoY However, as the demand of end devices came to a screeching halt because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the OSAT industry may potentially start to decline in 2H20
TrendForce indicates that OSAT industry leader ASE posted 1Q20 revenue of $1355 billion, a 214% increase YoY, thanks primarily to packaging demand for applications including 5G smartphone AiP (Antenna in Package) and other consumer electronics Second-place Amkor similarly benefitted from strong demand from 5G communications and consumer electronics, reaching $1153 billion in 1Q20 revenue, a 288% increase YoY SPIL also profited from the increase in demand from the two aforementioned applications and registered 1Q20 revenue of $806 million, a 344% increase YoY The magnitude of SPIL’s revenue growth was more noticeable relative to those of most other OSAT companies Although SPIL maintained its fourth-ranked position on the list, the company is progressively closing in on third-ranked JCET
The overall revenue growth of the three dominant Chinese OSAT companies in 1Q20 can be mostly attributed to the gradual stabilization of China-US relations Notably, TSHT is the only company on the top 10 list to undergo a YoY decline in revenue TrendForce believes TSHT’s decline occurred because the company had to push back its packaging schedule for consumer electronics, in favor of fulfilling packaging orders placed by the Chinese government during the onset of COVID-19 for disease-prevention applications such as IR sensor components
OSAT giant Powertech, which specializes in memory product packaging and testing, saw its revenue growing by 331% YoY in 1Q20, due to orders placed by Kingston, Micron, and Intel Testing supplier KYEC posted the most remarkable growth out of the top 10 in 1Q20 because of surging orders for 5G smartphones, base station chips, CMOS image sensors, and server chips Its revenue grew by 359% YoY Also worth mentioning is that display panel driver IC and memory product packaging specialist ChipMOS joined the top 10 by leapfrogging from 11th place in 2019 to 9th place this year Its performance took place due to increased demand for memory products, large-sized display driver IC (LDDI), and touch and display driver IC (TDDI)
The gradual deceleration of the China-US trade war starting in 3Q19 was, on the whole, beneficial to the global OSAT industry’s performance in 1Q20 Most of the companies in the top 10 were able to maintain their growth momentum even during the traditionally weak first quarter Now that the pandemic has significantly reduced the demand for end devices, a similar situation is likely to take place in the OSAT industry in 2Q20, however Furthermore, as tensions mount once again between China and the US, TrendForce expects the OSAT industry to face immense market challenges in 2H20
