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2023/03/30
TrendForce estimates that approximately 319 million LCD monitor panels were shipped in 1Q23, indicating a 26% QoQ and 334% YoY decline This drop in shipments can be attributed to several factors, including fewer working days, weak demand in the end-market, and inventory adjustments However, since March, brands have been more optimistic about product demand for 2Q23, which has driven up order visibility for LCD monitor panels TrendForce projects that shipments will reach 367 million units in 2Q23—a 151% QoQ growth Comparing this number to pre-pandemic figures, with 373 million shipments in 2Q18 and 354 million shipments in 2Q19, we can see that the figures are almost on par
TrendForce explains that there are three main factors contributing to the increase in shipment levels in 2Q23: Firstly, Internet cafés in China are seeing a rising surge of customers after COVID restrictions were lifted in December of last year To help attract these customers, cafés are working to upgrade their current gaming LCD monitors to higher-end models However, the current supply of ICs (DDICs and T-cons) used in the production of these high-end gaming monitors may be insufficient in fulfilling this sudden uptick in demand
Secondly, panel makers have observed that demand from international logistics channels is on the rise as channels are working to replenish their inventories after destocking for several quarters Lastly, while monitor brands were forced to contend with a frozen consumer market in 2022, they are now stocking up in preparation for China’s 618 Shopping Day, which is expected to revitalize sales as China relaxes its COVID restrictions in an effort to restore its economy Additionally, brands are being enticed by low panel prices to stock up
TrendForce believes that demand recovery in 2Q23 will primarily be boosted by consumers, while commercial demand continues to remain sluggish; we can expect in 2H23 for brands to continue maintaining a conservative outlook on commercial demand Meanwhile, as we move into the traditionally peak final half of the year, judging on how successful sales are during China’s 618 Shopping Day and in European markets, there may be further opportunities for consumer markets to boost demand
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/03/06
TrendForce estimates that shipments of display panels used in notebook computers (NB panels) will total 387 million pieces for 1Q23, showing a QoQ decline of 104% and a YoY decline of 456% There are fewer work days for the first quarter due to the celebration of the Lunar New Year Furthermore, brands for notebook computers (NBs) have been correcting down their panel orders in response to the issue of excess inventory These factors were behind the significant contraction in shipments However, TrendForce points out that the market for NB panels will improve in 2Q23 Besides more work days for the second quarter, brands will also have lowered their panel inventories to a manageable level by then TrendForce currently forecasts that NB panel shipments will grow by 196% QoQ to a total of 463 million pieces for 2Q23
The progress in the consumption of inventory for NB panels can be seen from the activities of the major NB brands (excluding Apple) Specifically, NB brands’ sales of whole devices and panel procurement quantities are the notable indicators TrendForce has observed that the top five NB brands began to significantly cut panel demand in 2Q22 and kept making downward corrections through 2H22 Furthermore, their panel procurement quantities were kept lower than their device shipments Hence, inventory was being steadily expended TrendForce has also observed that the difference between the top five brands’ quarterly total device sell-in quantity and their quarterly total panel procurement quantity has been shrinking gradually over the recent three quarters
Now, in 1Q23, some NB brands have lowered their inventories to an optimal for panels used in commercial NB models However, several other brands have again scaled back their panel procurement quantities for the quarter because they still hold too many panels or whole devices for commercial NB models Conversely, some brands have started to raise procurement quantities for panels used in consumer NB model Therefore, TrendForce expects brands to have finished inventory correction by 2Q23 Furthermore, China’s domestic demand will likely warm up in the second quarter, and brands will be preparing for the “618” promotional event around the same time TrendForce currently projects that NB panel shipments will return to a positive QoQ growth in 2Q23, thus ending five consecutive quarters of decline
TrendForce believes NB sales on the whole will remain fairly weak during 1H23, but NB panels will be the first among different types of display panels to rebound in terms of shipments because most NB brands will have restored their panel inventories to a relatively healthy state within this period Then, during 2H23, the US is expected to ease its interest rate hikes, and the inflation problem in Europe is also expected to subside Additionally, China will likely experience a recovery in terms of the vigor of domestic socioeconomic activities following the lifting of COVID-19 lockdowns With these factors, there is a high chance that NB panel shipments will return to the traditional seasonal cycle and surge during the busy season
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/12/29
Shipments of monitor panels have fallen over the quarters this year due to various factors that have caused disruptions across the global economy and politics TrendForce projects that shipments of monitor panels will total just around 158 million pieces for 2022, showing a YoY decline of 88%
According to TrendForce’s research on the market for display panels, monitor panels experienced a large downward shipment correction later than did TV and NB panels For TV panels, the correction phase began in 3Q21 Turning to NB panels, a steep decline in shipments occurred in 2Q22 As for monitor panels, their shipments had not fallen significantly until 3Q22 With the correction taking place at a later time, the eventual rebound will also occur at a more distant time in the future Since monitor brands are still holding an excessively high level of panel inventory at this moment, shipments of monitor panels are forecasted to drop again by 53% QoQ for 1Q23
Looking further ahead to 2Q23, inventory level will return to a more optimal level for brands and channels With the impending arrival of the traditional peak season in 2H23, shipments of monitor panels are forecasted to rebound to around 357 million units for 2Q22 and thereby return to the average level for second-quarter shipments in the four years before the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic (ie, from 2016 to 2019) Also, since the shipment figure for 1Q23 will be a low base for comparison, the shipment figure for 2Q23 will reflect a double-digit QoQ growth Moving into 2H23, global inflation is expected to ease, and China’s economy is anticipated to undergo a recovery due to the loosening of pandemic-related restrictions Therefore, the supply-demand dynamics of the market for monitor panels will likely follow the usual seasonal patterns
Based on TrendForce’s tracking of panel shipments, shipments of monitor panels started to slide after reaching a peak in 4Q21 and are expected to arrive at a trough in 1Q23 After inventory level returns to an optimal level for the entire supply chain, brands will regain procurement momentum Then, shipments of monitor panels will climb over the quarters TrendForce currently forecasts that the total for 2023 will come to 149 million pieces, showing a diminished YoY growth rate of 58%
（Note: “NB” stands for notebook (laptop) computer）
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/09/08
According to TrendForce, although the 1Q22 is a traditional off-season, thanks to the backstop of deferred order shipments and demand for commercial models, notebook panel shipments grew by 55% compared with the same period in 2021 However, the sudden outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war at the end of February poured oil on the inflation fire The impact of China's lockdowns in 2Q22 led to a decline in the assembly capacity of ODMs and a rise in in-plant inventories Terminal demand was arrested by the overall harsh economic environment Rising inventory levels made it necessary for brands to further reduce panel purchases Moving into 3Q22, the market continued to suffer from rising inflation and interest rate hikes, resulting in weak terminal demand and in high whole device inventory at the channel end, as well as high in-transit whole device and panel inventory As distribution channels and brands actively reduce inventory, orders for notebook panels face sharp downward revisions Shipments of notebook panels in 3Q22 is estimated to decrease by 134% QoQ to 451 million units, even lower than the 499 million units in the same 2019 period before the pandemic
TrendForce further indicates notebook panel shipments came in at 156 million units in July, a decrease of 348% YoY, and also lower than the 163 million units shipped in July 2019 before the pandemic Monitor panel shipments amounted to 117 million units in July this year, a decrease of 163% YoY, which was also lower than the 118 million units in July 2019, indicating that the present wave of client inventory adjustments is quite dramatic
However, monitor panels were supported by branded manufacturers' back orders in 2Q22, and China's lockdowns had little impact on whole monitor assembly capacity, so decline in terminal demand and inventory issues did not materialize until 3Q22 As brands aggressively destock, monitor panel shipments will decline sharply in 3Q22, with shipments estimated at 313 million units, down 277% QoQ, and still lower than the 367 million units in the same period in 2019 before the pandemic
Looking forward to 4Q22, TrendForce believes distribution channels and brands are still aiming to aggressively reduce whole device and panel inventories to reasonable levels before the end of this year Therefore, demand for IT panels in 4Q22 will remain conservative Shipments of notebook panels in 4Q22 are estimated at approximately 408 million units, down 456% YoY and 94% QoQ Monitor panel shipments are estimated at roughly 29 million units, down 404% YoY and 72% QoQ
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/06/30
According to TrendForce research, terminal demand remains weak due to repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war, rising inflation, and China's pandemic lockdowns as monitor brands began to reduce purchasing of LCD monitor panels in 2Q22 LCD monitors panel shipments in 2Q22 are estimated at 425 million units, down 113% QoQ
According to TrendForce analysis, monitor brands set fairly high shipment targets in early 2022 Coupled with the impact of LCD monitor panel shortages in 2021, monitor brands gravitated towards overbuying panels in 1Q22 to prepare for ensuing shipments Driven by strong demand from monitor brands, shipments of LCD monitor panels reached 479 million units in 1Q22, up 20% YoY, the highest level for the period since 2012
However, due to changes in the international political and economic landscape in February this year, the market for consumer models has cooled and monitor brands have successively revised their LCD monitor shipment targets downward and simultaneously lowered their panel purchase volumes In the face of interest rate hikes by the world's major central banks and slowing economic growth, companies have also begun exercising caution in terms of capital expenditures, which has slowed demand for business-grade LCD monitors In the past, inventory issues emerged and the overall market became oversupplied when monitor brands overstocked as consumer and business demand gradually cooled
In addition, shipping and port congestion gradually eased in 1H22 The LCD monitors that were still in transit and accumulating in ports gradually arrived at distributors, resulting in a sharp rise in distribution inventory Faced with the dual pressure of high whole LCD monitor and panel inventory, monitor brands were forced to reduce panel purchases in 2H22 Therefore, TrendForce forecasts that LCD monitor panel shipments will continue to decline to 378 million units in 3Q22, representing a QoQ decline of 112% In 4Q22, there is a chance shipments will rebound marginally to 388 million units due to the sales surge initiated by monitor brands at the end of the year, representing a quarterly increase of 28% Annual shipments are forecast to reach 167 million units, a drop of 36% YoY
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
