Search Results
keyword：Mark Liu，
55 result(s)
2023/05/30
TrendForce predicts a dramatic surge in AI server shipments for 2023, with an estimated 12 million units—outfitted with GPUs, FPGAs, and ASICs—destined for markets around the world, marking a robust YoY growth of 384% This increase resonates with the mounting demand for AI servers and chips, resulting in AI servers poised to constitute nearly 9% of the total server shipments, a figure projected to increase to 15% by 2026 TrendForce has revised its CAGR forecast for AI server shipments between 2022 and 2026 upwards to an ambitious 22% Furthermore, AI chip shipments in 2023 are slated to increase by an impressive 46%
TrendForce analysis indicates that NVIDIA’s GPUs currently dominate the AI server market, commanding an impressive 60–70% market share Hot on its heels are ASIC chips, independently developed by CSPs, seizing over 20% of the market Three crucial factors fuel NVIDIA’s market dominance: First, NVIDIA’s A100 and A800 models are sought after by both American and Chinese CSPs Interestingly, the demand curve for 2H23 is predicted to gradually tilt towards the newer H100 and H800 models These models carry an ASP that’s 2–25 times that of the A100 and A800, amplifying their allure Furthermore, NVIDIA isn’t resting on its laurels; it’s proactively bolstering the appeal of these models through aggressive promotion of its self-developed machine solutions, such as DGX and HGX
Second, the profitability of high-end GPUs, specifically the A100 and H100 models, plays a vital role TrendForce research suggests that NVIDIA’s supreme positioning in the GPU market allows for a significant price variation of the H100, which could amount to a stark difference of nearly US$5,000, depending on the buyer’s purchase volume
Lastly, the pervasive influence of ChatBOTs and AI computations is predicted to persist, expanding its footprint across various professional fields such as cloud and e-commerce services, intelligent manufacturing, financial insurance, smart healthcare, and advanced driver-assistance systems as we move into the latter half of the year Simultaneously, there’s been a noticeable upswing in demand for AI servers—particularly cloud-based ones equipped with 4–8 GPUs and edge AI servers boasting 2–4 GPUs TrendForce forecasts an annual growth rate surprising 50% in the shipment of AI servers armed with NVIDIA’s flagship A100 and H100 models
TrendForce reports that HBM, a high-speed RAM interface deployed in advanced GPUs, is poised for a significant uptick in demand The forthcoming H100 GPU from NVIDIA, slated for release this year, is equipped with the faster HBM3 technology This improvement over the previous HBM2e standard amplifies the computation performance of AI server systems As the need for cutting-edge GPUs—including NVIDIA’s A100 and H100, AMD’s MI200 and MI300, and Google’s proprietary TPU—continues to escalate, TrendForce forecasts a striking 58% YoY increase in HBM demand for 2023, with an estimated further boost of 30% expected in 2024
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/05/17
TrendForce reveals that alongside the four major CSPs reducing their procurement volumes, OEMs like Dell and HPE have also scaled back their annual shipment volume forecasts at some point between February and April, predicting YoY declines of 15% and 12%, respectively Furthermore, server demand in China is facing headwinds due to geopolitical and economic challenges Consequently, TrendForce projects a downward revision in global server shipment volumes for this year—a 285% YoY decrease at 13835 million units
TrendForce emphasizes that the server market in 1H23 remains pessimistic, with 1Q23 shipments experiencing a 159% QoQ decrease due to off-season factors and end-user inventory adjustments The expected industry boom in 2Q23 failed to materialize, leading to a modest QoQ growth estimate of only 923% Persistent influences on server shipments include OEMs lowering shipment volumes, subdued domestic demand in China, and continuous supply chain inventory adjustments ESG issues have also led CSPs to prolong server lifecycles and reduce procurement volume Moreover, OEMs are lengthening supports period for older platforms as businesses seek to control capital expenditures, further contributing to market strain
Concurrently, with the growing excitement surrounding ChatBOTs this year, AI server shipments have witnessed a significant boost, driven by the proactive investments of industry giants such as Microsoft and Google TrendForce anticipates a remarkable 2023 growth rate surpassing 10% for AI server shipments However, as AI servers currently account for a relatively small portion (<10%) of total server shipments, their impact on revitalizing the sluggish server market remains fairly restricted
Whether the server market can rebound this year hinges upon the rate of inventory reduction Given current estimates, this turnaround could materialize as early as late 2023 or extend into the first half of 2024 Meanwhile, the rate of inventory depletion will also affect the schedule for introducing new platforms and may temper suppliers’ eagerness to transition to DDR5 and lower prices Taking into account present market conditions, TrendForce does not rule out the possibility of further downward revisions to annual server shipment forecasts
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/04/24
TrendForce reports that mass production of new server platforms—such as Intel Sapphire Rapids and AMD Genoa—is imminent However, recent market reports have indicated a PMIC compatibility issue for server DDR5 RDIMMs; DRAM suppliers and PMIC vendors are working to address the problem TrendForce believes this will have two effects: First, DRAM suppliers will temporarily procure more PMICs from Monolithic Power Systems (MPS), which supplies PMICs without any issues Second, supply will inevitably be affected in the short term as current DDR5 server DRAM production still uses older processes, which will lead to a convergence in the price decline of DDR5 server DRAM in 2Q23—from the previously estimated 15~20% to 13~18%
As previously mentioned, PMIC issues and the production process relying on older processes are all having a short-term impact on the supply of DDR5 server DRAM SK hynix has gradually ramped up production and sales of 1α-nm, which, unlike 1y-nm, has yet to be fully verified by consumers Current production processes are still being dominated by Samsung and SK hynix’s 1y-nm and Micron’s 1z-nm; 1α and 1β-nm production is projected to increase in 2H23
TrendForce estimates that DDR5 server DRAM 32 GB prices are expected to decrease to US$80–90 during April and May, owing to lower fulfillment rates of DDR5 server DRAM in the short term However, this price estimate is slightly higher than the previous Q2 average estimate of US$75 In contrast, DDR4 prices are projected to fall by 18–23% in 2Q23, whereas DDR5 prices are expected to drop by 13–18% This indicates a larger quarterly price decline for DDR4 than DDR5, as the price gap between the two widens
AI indirectly helps drive up demand, 128 GB high-capacity modules see prices stop falling in April
The explosive popularity of ChatBOT has driven up demand for AI server shipments, leading to talks about HBM and boosting purchasing power for 128 GB server DDR5 RDIMM to accommodate ChatGPT 40 computing architecture This has led to an increase in demand for high-capacity RDIMMs in early 2Q23, primarily from US CSPs TrendForce reports that 128 GB RDIMMs require Through-silicon VIA (TSV) packaging, as the DDR5 mono die is mostly 16Gb However, main suppliers cannot increase their TSV production capacity in the short term, leading to further price increases for SK hynix’s high-capacity DDR5 modules this month This is in contrast to the current downward trend in the prices of DDR4 and other DDR5 products
Overall, compared to DDR4, DDR5 modules require PMIC components, which introduces the possibility of compatibility risks In the meanwhile, clients have also been delaying the mass production of new server platform models Even though DRAM suppliers have already been sending out samples to CPU vendors and buyers since early 2022, practical issues have only just begun to emerge as new server production ramps up TrendForce believes that the resulting changes in the price difference between DDR4 and DDR5 will be reflected in Q2 and Q3 of this year As the production of new products begins to ramp up, the price gap will converge
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/04/18
A strong growth in AI server shipments has driven demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM) TrendForce reports that the top three HBM suppliers in 2022 were SK hynix, Samsung, and Micron, with 50%, 40%, and 10% market share, respectively Furthermore, the specifications of high-end AI GPUs designed for deep learning have led to HBM product iteration To prepare for the launch of NVIDIA H100 and AMD MI300 in 2H23, all three major suppliers are planning for the mass production of HBM3 products At present, SK hynix is the only supplier that mass produces HBM3 products, and as a result, is projected to increase its market share to 53% as more customers adopt HBM3 Samsung and Micron are expected to start mass production sometime towards the end of this year or early 2024, with HBM market shares of 38% and 9%, respectively
AI server shipment volume expected to increase by 154% in 2023
NVIDIA’s DM/ML AI servers are equipped with an average of four or eight high-end graphics cards and two mainstream x86 server CPUs These servers are primarily used by top US cloud services providers such as Google, AWS, Meta, and Microsoft TrendForce analysis indicates that the shipment volume of servers with high-end GPGPUs is expected to increase by around 9% in 2022, with approximately 80% of these shipments concentrated in eight major cloud service providers in China and the US Looking ahead to 2023, Microsoft, Meta, Baidu, and ByteDance will launch generative AI products and services, further boosting AI server shipments It is estimated that the shipment volume of AI servers will increase by 154% this year, and a 122% CAGR for AI server shipments is projected from 2023 to 2027
AI servers stimulate a simultaneous increase in demand for server DRAM, SSD, and HBM
TrendForce points out that the rise of AI servers is likely to increase demand for memory usage While general servers have 500–600 GB of server DRAM, AI servers require significantly more—averaging between 12–17 TB with 64–128 GB per module For enterprise SSDs, priority is given to DRAM or HBM due to the high-speed requirements of AI servers, but there has yet to be a noticeable push to expand SSD capacity However, in terms of interface, PCIe 50 is more favored when it comes to addressing high-speed computing needs Additionally, AI servers tend to use GPGPUs, and with NVIDIA A100 80 GB configurations of four or eight, HBM usage would be around 320–640 GB As AI models grow increasingly complex, demand for server DRAM, SSDs, and HBM will grow simultaneously
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/03/28
TrendForce reports that several suppliers, such as Micron and SK hynix, have started scaling back DRAM production The ASP of DRAM plunged 20% in 1Q23, and this price decline is predicted to slow down to 10~15% next quarter It’s uncertain whether or not demand will recover in 2H23 Therefore, the ASP of DRAM has continued to fall as inventory levels are high from the suppliers’ side, and prices will only rebound if there is a significant decrease in production
PC DRAM: Purchase quantity from buyers has fallen drastically over the past three quarters; buyers have around 9~13 weeks of PC DRAM stock remaining Despite suppliers having already cut production in the PC DRAM segment, DDR4 8 GB module is still likely to fall by more than 10% in 2Q23 There is a possibility that PC OEMs may purchase more DRAM because prices have been down to a relatively low level, but it is still under observation whether or not this can mitigate the inventory overstock situation from the suppliers’ side TrendForce predicts the ASP of PC DRAM will fall between 10~15%
Server DRAM: Demand for server DRAM from OEMs and cloud service providers has been sluggish due to inventory adjustments In addition, consumer demand looks less than promising, prompting suppliers to increase the ratio of server DRAMs in their product mixes However, this resulted in a massive inventory pile-up during 1Q23 While most suppliers have lowered their capacity utilization rates, their efforts have yet to make a noticeable impact on declining prices TrendForce predicts that the ASP of server DRAM will fall 13~18% in 2Q23
Mobile DRAM: The DRAM inventories of smartphone brands have returned to a relatively healthy level However, these brands have mostly adopted a conservative plan of action for smartphone production, which means that buyer demand for mobile DRAM will be constrained in 2Q23 As a result, suppliers are under a great deal of pressure to sell off as much stock as possible Even with cutbacks being made in mobile DRAM production, reversing their current overstock will continue to be a challenge for these companies TrendForce predicts the ASP of mobile DRAM to continue falling as we move into 2Q23 Nevertheless, there is a possibility that the decline will shrink to 10~15%
Graphics DRAM: Buyers have been stocking up on graphics DRAM rather conservatively, while even AI has failed to make a considerable impact on demand Taking a mainstream product, the GDDR6 16 Gb, for example, TrendForce predicts ASP will fall 10~15% QoQ in 2Q23 due to constrained demand The DRAM industry is currently in the midst of transitioning from 8 to 16 Gb; Samsung’s GDDR6 8 Gb will reach its EOL at the end of the year Beginning 2024, SK hynix will be the only company still offering 8 Gb products Rolling back production could finally present an opportunity for the price of GDDR6 8 Gb to stop fluctuating aggressively
Consumer DRAM: Demand for networking devices has been relatively stable However, buyers have dialed back their procurement activities as of late given that existing orders have been completed These buyers appear to have conservative estimations of the growth potential of network-related demand this year, and the application market, which includes television, will be unable to support demand for the consumer DRAM market Supply continues to outpace demand even as suppliers reduce their production considerably TrendForce predicts that the ASP of consumer DRAM will fall 10~15% in 2Q23
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
