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2023/10/13
TrendForce reports indicate a universal price increase for both DRAM and NAND Flash starting in the fourth quarter DRAM prices, for instance, are projected to see a quarterly surge of about 3-8% Whether this upward momentum can be sustained will hinge on the suppliers' steadfastness in maintaining production cuts and the degree of resurgence in actual demand, with the general-purpose server market being a critical determinant
PC DRAM: DDR5 prices, having already surged in the third quarter, are expected to maintain their upward trajectory, fueled by the stocking of new CPU models This forthcoming price hike cycle for both DDR4 and DDR5 is incentivizing PC OEMs to proceed with purchases Although manufacturers still have substantial inventory and there's no imminent shortage, Samsung has been nudged to further slash its production However, facing negative gross margins on DRAM products, most manufacturers are resistant to further price reductions, instead pushing for aggressive increases This stance sets the stage for an anticipated rise in DDR4 prices by 0–5% and DDR5 prices by around 3–8% in the fourth quarter Overall, as DDR5 adoption accelerates, an approximate 3–8% quarterly increase is projected for PC DRAM contract prices during this period
Server DRAM: Buyer inventory of DDR5 has climbed from 20% in Q2 to 30–35% recently However, with only 15% being actually utilized in servers in Q3, market uptake is slower than expected Meanwhile, Samsung's intensified production cutbacks have notably shrunk DDR4 wafer inputs, causing a supply crunch in server DDR4 stocks This scenario leaves no leeway for further server DDR4 price reductions In response, manufacturers, aiming to enhance profits, are accelerating DDR5 output
Looking ahead, Q4 forecasts anticipate stable server DDR4 average prices, while server DDR5 is set to maintain a declining trajectory With DDR5 shipments on the rise and a notable 50-60% price disparity with DDR4, the blended ASP for the range is poised for an upswing This leads to an estimated 3–8% quarterly hike in Q4 server DRAM contract prices
Mobile DRAM: Inventories have bounced back to healthy levels sooner than other sectors, thanks to price elasticity driving an increase in per-device capacity, and revitalizing purchasing enthusiasm in 2H23 On the other hand, although Q4 smartphone production hasn't reached the previous year's levels for the same period, a seasonal increase of over 10% is still supporting demand for mobile DRAM However, it's crucial to note that current manufacturer inventories remain high, and production cuts haven't yet altered the oversupply situation in the short term Nevertheless, manufacturers, under profit margin pressures, are insisting on pushing prices upward For products where inventory is more abundant, such as LPDDR4X or those from older manufacturing processes, the estimated contract price increase will be about 3–8% for the quarter In contrast, LPDDR5(X) appears to be in tighter supply, with projected contract price increases of 5–10%
Graphics DRAM: A niche market dynamic and an acceptance of price hikes among buyers suggest sustained procurement of mainstream GDDR6 16Gb chips, preparing for expected price increases in 2024 The launch of NVIDIA's new Server GPU L40s in the third quarter is facilitating the depletion of existing manufacturer inventories Furthermore, gaming notebooks are excelling in sales, surpassing the general notebook market this year Consequently, manufacturers are experiencing less inventory stress for graphics DRAM than they are for commodity DRAM This landscape sets the stage for an anticipated 3-8% hike in graphics DRAM contract prices for the fourth quarter
Consumer DRAM: Samsung initiated significant production reductions starting in September to diminish its surplus of older inventory These cuts are projected to hit 30% by the fourth quarter With the anticipation of steadily declining inventories, manufacturers are looking to increase consumer DRAM contract prices, aiming for hikes of more than 10%, to avoid incurring losses However, even though some producers raised their prices at September's close, demand continues to be lackluster, with purchasing and stock-up efforts not as strong as anticipated This deviation in pricing goes against the expected supply-demand balance, suggesting a more modest estimated rise of 3–8% in consumer DRAM contract prices for the fourth quarter—below manufacturers' initial targets
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email the Sales Department at SR_MI@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://wwwtrendforcecom/news/
2023/08/30
TrendForce expects that memory suppliers will continue their strategy of scaling back production of both DRAM and NAND Flash in 2024, with the cutback being particularly pronounced in the financially struggling NAND Flash sector Market demand visibility for consumer electronic is projected to remain uncertain in 1H24 Additionally, capital expenditure for general-purpose servers is expected to be weakened due to competition from AI servers Considering the low baseline set in 2023 and the current low pricing for some memory products, TrendForce anticipates YoY bit demand growth rates for DRAM and NAND Flash to be 13% and 16%, respectively Nonetheless, achieving effective inventory reduction and restoring supply-demand balance next year will largely hinge on suppliers’ ability to exercise restraint in their production capacities If managed effectively, this could open up an opportunity for a rebound in average memory prices
PC: The annual growth rate for average DRAM capacity is projected at approximately 124%, driven mainly by Intel’s new Meteor Lake CPUs coming into mass production in 2024 This platform’s DDR5 and LPDDR5 exclusivity will likely make DDR5 the new mainstream, surpassing DDR4 in the latter half of 2024 The growth rate in PC client SSDs will not be as robust as that of PC DRAM, with just an estimated growth of 8–10% As consumer behavior increasingly shifts toward cloud-based solutions, the demand for laptops with large storage capacities is decreasing Even though 1 TB models are becoming more available, 512 GB remains the predominant storage option Furthermore, memory suppliers are maintaining price stability by significantly reducing production Should prices hit rock bottom and subsequently rebound, PC OEMs are expected to face elevated SSD costs This, when combined with Windows increasing its licensing fees for storage capacities at and above 1 TB, is likely to put a damper on further growth in average storage capacities
Servers: The annual growth rate for the average capacity of server DRAM is estimated to reach 173% This surge is primarily fueled by generational transitions in server platforms, a heightened dependency on RAM that is coordinated with CPU cores in specific CSP operations, and the high computational load requirements of AI servers Enterprise SSDs: The estimated annual growth rate of average capacity stands at 147% For CSPs, the rollout of processors supporting PCle 50 suggests that inventory levels for these OEMs should return to normal by early next year, likely prompting an uptick in the procurement of 8 TB products On the brand side for servers, while the sharp decline in NAND Flash prices is propelling an increase in 16 TB deployments, the contribution of AI servers to this growth remains relatively limited
Smartphones: The annual production growth rate for smartphones in 2024 is estimated to be a modest 22%, largely impacted by a global economic downturn TrendForce cites this as the primary reason for the sluggish growth in demand volume Thanks to multiple consecutive quarters of declining memory prices, brands are increasingly focusing on hardware competition Consequently, the average DRAM memory capacity in smartphones is projected to rise by approximately 143% in 2023 Given that the ASP of mobile DRAM is expected to remain at a relatively low point in 2024, this trend is likely to persist, potentially leading to an additional 79% growth in average device memory capacity for the year
UFS & eMMC: Factors such as growing demand for image storage and increased 5G penetration are expected to drive up the average storage capacity in smartphones However, as suppliers scale back production to set the stage for potential price hikes, smartphone OEMs are projected to exercise greater caution in cost management in 2024, potentially leading to fewer mid-to-low-end models offering over 1TB of storage On a related note, the absence of enthusiasm for QLC products among smartphone OEMs likely presents an obstacle for suppliers aiming to nudge consumers toward capacity upgrades via lower-cost options With smartphone storage baselines continually rising and given Apple's current lack of plans to introduce iPhone models exceeding 1TB of storage, TrendForce anticipates that the annual growth rate for average smartphone storage capacity will hover around 13% in 2024
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/08/23
US-based CSPs have been establishing SMT production lines in Southeast Asia since late 2022 to mitigate geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions TrendForce reports that Taiwan-based server ODMs, including Quanta, Foxconn, Wistron (including Wiwynn), and Inventec, have set up production bases in countries like Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia It’s projected that by 2023, the production capacity from these regions will account for 23%, and by 2026, it will approach 50%
TrendForce reveals that Quanta, due to its geographical ties, has established several production lines in its Thai facilities centered around Google and Celestica, aiming for optimal positioning to foster customer loyalty Meanwhile, Foxconn has renovated its existing facilities in Hanoi, Vietnam, and uses its Wisconsin plant to accommodate customer needs Both Wistron and Wiwynn are progressively establishing assembly plants and SMT production lines in Malaysia Inventec’s current strategy mirrors that of Quanta, with plans to build SMT production lines in Thailand by 2024 and commence server production in late 2024
CSPs aim to control the core supply chain, AI server supply chain trends toward decentralization
TrendForce suggests that changes in the supply chain aren’t just about circumventing geopolitical risks—equally vital is increased control over key high-cost components, including CPUs, GPUs, and other critical materials With rising demand for next-generation AI and Large Language Models, supply chain stockpiling grows each quarter Accompanied by a surge in demand in 1H23, CSPs will become especially cautious in their supply chain management
Google, with its in-house developed TPU machines, possesses both the core R&D and supply chain leadership Moreover, its production stronghold primarily revolves around its own manufacturing sites in Thailand However, Google still relies on cooperative ODMs for human resource allocation and production scheduling, while managing other materials internally To avoid disruptions in the supply chain, companies like Microsoft, Meta, and AWS are not only aiming for flexibility in supply chain management but are also integrating system integrators into ODM production This approach allows for more dispersed and meticulous coordination and execution of projects
Initially, Meta heavily relied on direct purchases of complete server systems, with Intel’s Habana system being one of the first to be integrated into Meta’s infrastructure This made sense since the CPU for their web-type servers were often semi-custom versions from Intel Based on system optimization levels, Meta found Habana to be the most direct and seamless solution Notably, it was only last year that Meta began to delegate parts of its Metaverse project to ODMs This year, as part of its push into generative AI, Meta has also started adopting NVIDIA’s solutions extensively
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/08/15
The global server market, grappling with the impact of worldwide inflation, saw significant shifts in 2023 Server OEMs and CSPs revamped their investment strategies, resulting in cutbacks in both annual shipments and ODM production plans TrendForce observes that as the server market continues to decline, demand for AI surges These combined factors have had a domino effect, compressing the rollout of new server platforms across the board
Forecasts predict that this year’s shipments of server motherboards are expected to decline by a market of 6~7% Concurrently, shipments of whole servers aren’t faring much better, with a projected decrease of 5~6%
Amid an uncertain economic climate intensified by an uptick in CSP investments in AI, the server sector in 2024 is expected to remain the same as in 2023 with whole machine shipment volumes being suppressed Therefore, TrendForce foresees that there may be three potential scenarios affecting the server market and shipment forecasts in 2024
Assuming that the reduction of CSP inventory comes to a temporary halt, there's a chance for the server market to recover due to new demands However, factors such as heightened inflation and the economic stagnation that follows could continue to emphasize investments in AI, thereby squeezing budgets Additionally, there's a shift toward cloud services in the long term for enterprise servers As a result, overall shipments from server OEMs might see a slight decline Consequently, TrendForce estimates that whole server shipments in 2024 will grow by only 2~3% YoY This scenario is the most probable
Assuming a more intensified economic downturn and that the related server supply chain inventory has yet to be fully depleted, overall server demand remains conservative Simultaneously, continued demand for AI compresses the construction of traditional servers TrendForce predicts that whole server shipments in 2024 will either remain on par with this year's figures or even decrease
On a more optimistic note, should the market revert to its pre-pandemic state and, building on the optimistic CapEx plans of major players like CSPs, the server market could witness robust growth Furthermore, with an increase in consumer spending power, corporate IT expenditures are expected to rise year-over-year This could potentially propel whole server shipments to grow nearly 5% in 2024
Anticipated DDR5 Penetration Rate Expected to Surpass 50% Only by 3Q24
The adoption rate of DDR5 continues to be constrained due to factors such as the prolongation of older product lifecycles by clients and the delayed introduction of new models Additionally, increased investment in AI servers has led to a significant reduction in the shipment of traditional servers, substantially affecting OEM expectations for DDR5
Both Intel and AMD have considerably revised their market shares for server CPUs this year, specifically their SPR and Genoa proportions These shifts have had a direct impact on the DDR5 penetration rate TrendForce estimates that the adoption rate of DDR5 for the entire year, across both CSP and OEM, will be around a mere 134%
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/07/10
Intel has recently discovered bugs in its Sapphire Rapids (SPR) Xeon Server CPU, which began mass production in 1Q23 In response, the company has temporarily suspended shipments and initiated testing on all affected products TrendForce reports that the problematic model currently experiencing issues is the SPR MCC 32-Cores The majority of affected customers are concentrated in the corporate sector, prompting Intel to proactively halt shipments of SPR MCC SKUs Fortunately, other models such as the 20/24C and 36C and higher remain unaffected
Further investigations reveal that the impact of this situation is limited As enterprise server OEMs extend the support lifespans of older platforms, the adoption rate of SPR MCC has significantly slowed down in 2023 These latest CPU issues may also deepen concerns among corporate clients and reduce their willingness to adopt SPR In terms of scale, the suspended shipments in 2Q23 account for less than 1% of the total volume of Intel DP server CPUs, resulting in a minimal impact on Intel’s server CPU shipment performance
Server DDR5 platform issues arise, the projected penetration rate is only 134% for 2023
Overall, the adoption rate of DDR5 is still affected by clients extending the product cycles of older models and postponing the introduction of new models TrendForce estimates that the adoption rate for server DDR5 in 2023 will be approximately 134% Furthermore, it is expected that DDR5’s adoption rate will not surpass DDR4 until the end of 3Q24
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
