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2023/10/26
TrendForce reports that Q4 contract prices for mobile DRAM are poised to see an increased quarterly rise of 13–18% But that’s not all—NAND Flash is also joining the party, with contract prices of eMMC and UFS expected to climb by approximately 10–15% in the same quarter This quarter is set to star mobile DRAM, traditionally the underperformer in profit margins compared to its DRAM counterparts, as it takes the lead in this round of price increases
This expanded quarterly increase can be attributed to several factors On the supply side, Samsung’s significant production cut and Micron's rolling out a price hike of more than 20% continue to lay the foundation for industry-wide confidence in price increases As for demand, the latter half of 2023 saw mobile DRAM and NAND Flash (eMMC, UFS) demand not just buoyed by the usual suspects—the traditional peak season—but also boosted by catalysts such as the Huawei Mate 60 series This has prompted other Chinese smartphone brands to expand their production targets The surge in demand within a short period has become one of the reasons pushing Q4 contract prices upward
Overall, memory prices are expected to continue trending upward in 1Q24, according to TrendForce’s projection However, the traditional off-season lull and reduced workdays courtesy of the Lunar New Year might cool the fervor for price increases slightly Nonetheless, current projections still anticipate continued growth in first-quarter contract prices for mobile DRAM and NAND Flash (eMMC, UFS) next year The rate of increase will depend on whether suppliers maintain a conservative production strategy and whether there is enough consumer demand to bolster the market
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email the Sales Department at SR_MI@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit at https://wwwtrendforcecom/news/
2023/10/13
TrendForce reports indicate a universal price increase for both DRAM and NAND Flash starting in the fourth quarter DRAM prices, for instance, are projected to see a quarterly surge of about 3-8% Whether this upward momentum can be sustained will hinge on the suppliers' steadfastness in maintaining production cuts and the degree of resurgence in actual demand, with the general-purpose server market being a critical determinant
PC DRAM: DDR5 prices, having already surged in the third quarter, are expected to maintain their upward trajectory, fueled by the stocking of new CPU models This forthcoming price hike cycle for both DDR4 and DDR5 is incentivizing PC OEMs to proceed with purchases Although manufacturers still have substantial inventory and there's no imminent shortage, Samsung has been nudged to further slash its production However, facing negative gross margins on DRAM products, most manufacturers are resistant to further price reductions, instead pushing for aggressive increases This stance sets the stage for an anticipated rise in DDR4 prices by 0–5% and DDR5 prices by around 3–8% in the fourth quarter Overall, as DDR5 adoption accelerates, an approximate 3–8% quarterly increase is projected for PC DRAM contract prices during this period
Server DRAM: Buyer inventory of DDR5 has climbed from 20% in Q2 to 30–35% recently However, with only 15% being actually utilized in servers in Q3, market uptake is slower than expected Meanwhile, Samsung's intensified production cutbacks have notably shrunk DDR4 wafer inputs, causing a supply crunch in server DDR4 stocks This scenario leaves no leeway for further server DDR4 price reductions In response, manufacturers, aiming to enhance profits, are accelerating DDR5 output
Looking ahead, Q4 forecasts anticipate stable server DDR4 average prices, while server DDR5 is set to maintain a declining trajectory With DDR5 shipments on the rise and a notable 50-60% price disparity with DDR4, the blended ASP for the range is poised for an upswing This leads to an estimated 3–8% quarterly hike in Q4 server DRAM contract prices
Mobile DRAM: Inventories have bounced back to healthy levels sooner than other sectors, thanks to price elasticity driving an increase in per-device capacity, and revitalizing purchasing enthusiasm in 2H23 On the other hand, although Q4 smartphone production hasn't reached the previous year's levels for the same period, a seasonal increase of over 10% is still supporting demand for mobile DRAM However, it's crucial to note that current manufacturer inventories remain high, and production cuts haven't yet altered the oversupply situation in the short term Nevertheless, manufacturers, under profit margin pressures, are insisting on pushing prices upward For products where inventory is more abundant, such as LPDDR4X or those from older manufacturing processes, the estimated contract price increase will be about 3–8% for the quarter In contrast, LPDDR5(X) appears to be in tighter supply, with projected contract price increases of 5–10%
Graphics DRAM: A niche market dynamic and an acceptance of price hikes among buyers suggest sustained procurement of mainstream GDDR6 16Gb chips, preparing for expected price increases in 2024 The launch of NVIDIA's new Server GPU L40s in the third quarter is facilitating the depletion of existing manufacturer inventories Furthermore, gaming notebooks are excelling in sales, surpassing the general notebook market this year Consequently, manufacturers are experiencing less inventory stress for graphics DRAM than they are for commodity DRAM This landscape sets the stage for an anticipated 3-8% hike in graphics DRAM contract prices for the fourth quarter
Consumer DRAM: Samsung initiated significant production reductions starting in September to diminish its surplus of older inventory These cuts are projected to hit 30% by the fourth quarter With the anticipation of steadily declining inventories, manufacturers are looking to increase consumer DRAM contract prices, aiming for hikes of more than 10%, to avoid incurring losses However, even though some producers raised their prices at September's close, demand continues to be lackluster, with purchasing and stock-up efforts not as strong as anticipated This deviation in pricing goes against the expected supply-demand balance, suggesting a more modest estimated rise of 3–8% in consumer DRAM contract prices for the fourth quarter—below manufacturers' initial targets
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email the Sales Department at SR_MI@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://wwwtrendforcecom/news/
2023/09/08
Apple is slated to unveil four new iPhone models in mid-September: the iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Plus, iPhone 15 Pro, and iPhone 15 Pro Max TrendForce predicts a production figure of approximately 80 million units for the iPhone 15 series This represents a 6% YoY growth, bouncing back from last year’s Foxconn-related production hiccups The Pro series, armed with smoother production cycles and the Pro Max’s exclusive periscope lens, is poised to be a consumer magnet and potentially propel the Pro series to constitute over 60% of Apple's new device production However, with overall gloomy market sentiment and Huawei’s comeback in full swing, Apple’s total iPhone sales for the year may take a hit, expected to hover between 220 to 225 million units for a 5% YoY decline
In regard to specifications for the iPhone 15 series, several noteworthy hardware upgrades have been made Compliance with EU regulations has led Apple to jump on the USB Type-C bandwagon this year The iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus will come with significant camera upgrades, sporting a 48MP main sensor to align with the Pro series Furthermore, they will also be featuring Apple’s Dynamic Island On the other hand, the Pro series promises cutting-edge processor upgrades, increased Dram capacity, and introduces a titanium-aluminum alloy frame The Pro Max also intends to elevate mobile photography to the next level with its exclusive periscope lens
Advances in technology, while exciting, can also ratchet up the intricacies of mass production Reports of component snags and assembly issues have surfaced as production of the new iPhone models revs up in the third quarter The iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus, in particular, have been grappling with lower-than-expected yield rates for their new 48MP cameras Meanwhile, the Pro series is confronting challenges with panel and titanium alloy frame assembly However, evidence suggests that the Pro series is likely to overcome its obstacles more swiftly than its non-Pro counterparts
iPhone 15 Pro Max may see a price increase to reflect cost differences
In light of the global economic downturn, Apple is contemplating a cautious pricing strategy to preserve its sales volumes While the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus boast 48MP main cameras, they’ll inherit the A16 processor from the iPhone 14 Pro series, with no other significant upgrades Hence, their starting prices are projected to be aggressively competitive The iPhone 15 Pro may sport several enhancements that inflate costs, yet these are anticipated to be offset by cost reductions in other components
Overall, TrendForce predicts a stable pricing landscape for the iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Plus, and iPhone 15 Pro, largely mirroring last year’s figures The Pro Max, however, is a different story Equipped with an exclusive high-cost periscope lens, it’s expected to command a premium—likely a bump of up to US$100—to reflect its increased production costs Should this price adjustment materialize, it would mark the first such move since the era of the iPhone X
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/09/04
TrendForce reports global smartphone production has faced back-to-back quarterly declines After plunging nearly 20% in 1Q23, second-quarter numbers dwindled further by approximately 66%, settling at a modest 272 million units The first half of 2023 clocked in at a mere 522 million units—marking a 133% YoY decline and setting a ten-year low for both individual quarters and the first half of the year combined
TrendForce identifies three key reasons behind this slump in production:
The easing of pandemic restrictions in China failed to spur demand
The demographic dividend from the emerging Indian market has yet to translate into tangible demand
Initially, it was estimated that brands would return to normal production levels as excess inventory was cleared However, the current economic downturn has kept consumer spending in check—undermining first-half production more than expected
Transsion Overtakes Vivo to Enter Global Top 5, Q2 Production Surges by Over 70%
In a dramatic shake-up of global rankings, Transsion (including TECNO, Infinix, and itel) eclipsed Vivo to secure the fifth spot for the first time ever TrendFroce reveals that Transsion’s high production output benefited from a trifecta of inventory replenishment, new product launches, and its entry into mid-to-high-end markets Demonstrating robust production performance since March, the company’s growth trajectory is poised to extend its momentum into Q3 Meanwhile, Vivo (including Vivo and iQoo) is treading cautiously amid a sluggish global economy, which is evident in its conservative production plan: Vivo churned out 23 million units in Q2—a modest quarterly increase of 15%—and as a result, slipped to sixth place in global rankings
Apple Closes Gap with Samsung, Vying for Global Market Leadership in 2023
Samsung continues to lead in production rankings, delivering 539 million units in Q2 However, it suffered a 124% QoQ downturn Amid global economic headwinds and fierce competition, coupled with a waning halo effect from its flagship phone releases earlier in the year, Samsung’s Q2 performance lagged behind the same period last year Although Samsung is set to roll out new foldable models in Q3, the impact on its overall growth is expected to be marginal given the relatively low sales volume compared to its Galaxy S series
Apple’s second quarter is typically the weakest quarter in terms of production, owing to its transition between older and newer models Output for the second quarter clocked in at 42 million units, marking a 212% dip from the preceding quarter The upcoming iPhone 15/15 Plus could face headwinds due to suboptimal yields in its CMOS Image Sensors, potentially impacting its Q3 production performance Intriguingly, Apple and Samsung are neck-and-neck in their annual production projections Should the iPhone 15 series outperform market expectations, Apple stands a good chance of ousting Samsung from its long-held position as the global market leader
Xiaomi (including Xiaomi, Redmi, and POCO) is reveling in a bountiful Q2, posting production numbers of around 35 million units—a staggering seasonal uptick of 321% This boom can be attributed to a strategic depletion of channel inventory coupled with the allure of new product launches However, Xiaomi’s channel inventory still runs high, setting the stage for a Q3 that is likely to mirror its Q2 performance On the other side of the spectrum, Oppo (including Oppo, Real, and OnePlus) also had a fruitful Q2 The brand primarily rode the wave of rebounding demand in Southeast Asia and other regions, amassing approximately 336 million units and marking a seasonal leap of 254% With seasonal demands on the horizon, Oppo’s Q3 production is poised for an estimated growth of 10~15%, primarily targeting markets in China, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, hot on Xiaomi’s heels
Overall Economic Recovery Remains Unclear, Smartphone Production May Be Further Reduced in H2
Demand in consumer markets such as China, Europe, and North America has not shown a significant rebound as we move into the second half of the year Even if economic indicators in the Indian market improve, it is still difficult to reverse the global decline in smartphone production TrendForce predicts that the smartphone market may undergo another shift in Q2 this year due to poor global economic conditions, and production for the second half may consequently be further reduced Looking ahead to 2024, the current economic outlook is not optimistic TrendForce maintains its forecast of a 2~3% annual increase in global production, depending on regional economic trends Whether this will further drag down production remains to be seen
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/08/30
TrendForce expects that memory suppliers will continue their strategy of scaling back production of both DRAM and NAND Flash in 2024, with the cutback being particularly pronounced in the financially struggling NAND Flash sector Market demand visibility for consumer electronic is projected to remain uncertain in 1H24 Additionally, capital expenditure for general-purpose servers is expected to be weakened due to competition from AI servers Considering the low baseline set in 2023 and the current low pricing for some memory products, TrendForce anticipates YoY bit demand growth rates for DRAM and NAND Flash to be 13% and 16%, respectively Nonetheless, achieving effective inventory reduction and restoring supply-demand balance next year will largely hinge on suppliers’ ability to exercise restraint in their production capacities If managed effectively, this could open up an opportunity for a rebound in average memory prices
PC: The annual growth rate for average DRAM capacity is projected at approximately 124%, driven mainly by Intel’s new Meteor Lake CPUs coming into mass production in 2024 This platform’s DDR5 and LPDDR5 exclusivity will likely make DDR5 the new mainstream, surpassing DDR4 in the latter half of 2024 The growth rate in PC client SSDs will not be as robust as that of PC DRAM, with just an estimated growth of 8–10% As consumer behavior increasingly shifts toward cloud-based solutions, the demand for laptops with large storage capacities is decreasing Even though 1 TB models are becoming more available, 512 GB remains the predominant storage option Furthermore, memory suppliers are maintaining price stability by significantly reducing production Should prices hit rock bottom and subsequently rebound, PC OEMs are expected to face elevated SSD costs This, when combined with Windows increasing its licensing fees for storage capacities at and above 1 TB, is likely to put a damper on further growth in average storage capacities
Servers: The annual growth rate for the average capacity of server DRAM is estimated to reach 173% This surge is primarily fueled by generational transitions in server platforms, a heightened dependency on RAM that is coordinated with CPU cores in specific CSP operations, and the high computational load requirements of AI servers Enterprise SSDs: The estimated annual growth rate of average capacity stands at 147% For CSPs, the rollout of processors supporting PCle 50 suggests that inventory levels for these OEMs should return to normal by early next year, likely prompting an uptick in the procurement of 8 TB products On the brand side for servers, while the sharp decline in NAND Flash prices is propelling an increase in 16 TB deployments, the contribution of AI servers to this growth remains relatively limited
Smartphones: The annual production growth rate for smartphones in 2024 is estimated to be a modest 22%, largely impacted by a global economic downturn TrendForce cites this as the primary reason for the sluggish growth in demand volume Thanks to multiple consecutive quarters of declining memory prices, brands are increasingly focusing on hardware competition Consequently, the average DRAM memory capacity in smartphones is projected to rise by approximately 143% in 2023 Given that the ASP of mobile DRAM is expected to remain at a relatively low point in 2024, this trend is likely to persist, potentially leading to an additional 79% growth in average device memory capacity for the year
UFS & eMMC: Factors such as growing demand for image storage and increased 5G penetration are expected to drive up the average storage capacity in smartphones However, as suppliers scale back production to set the stage for potential price hikes, smartphone OEMs are projected to exercise greater caution in cost management in 2024, potentially leading to fewer mid-to-low-end models offering over 1TB of storage On a related note, the absence of enthusiasm for QLC products among smartphone OEMs likely presents an obstacle for suppliers aiming to nudge consumers toward capacity upgrades via lower-cost options With smartphone storage baselines continually rising and given Apple's current lack of plans to introduce iPhone models exceeding 1TB of storage, TrendForce anticipates that the annual growth rate for average smartphone storage capacity will hover around 13% in 2024
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
