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2023/12/01
Modern, premium foldable smartphones are redefining consumer priorities toward durability, slimness, and weight, making ultra-thin glass (UTG) and colorless polyimide (CPI) the preferred materials for flexible covers
TrendForce’s recent report on OLED technology and its market trends reveals that UTG has secured over 90% market share in the newest foldable models This trend indicates robust growth of UTG’s market value to US$360 million in 2023, with hopes of reaching US$600 million in 2024
The contradiction between CPI’s transparency and its high-temperature resistance, along with the need for improvement in scratch resistance and surface feel, remained significant issues UTG stands out for its revolutionary thinness, maintaining the traditional durability of glass while offering the flexibility needed for foldable phones This material boasts excellent light transmission and hardness—maintaining its properties even when thinned—resulting in less noticeable creasing on the phone’s screen
UTG production is a sophisticated process that can be divided into single-step and secondary processing techniques depending on whether the manufacturer can self-produce thinner base glass SCHOTT’s single-step non-contact narrow-gap continuous down-draw method stands out for consistently producing 30 um or thinner glass However, the glass surface will come into contact with the narrow gap during the production process, necessitating the addition of flow improvers to address surface evenness Corning’s overflow down-draw method, on the other hand, involves no external contact, resulting in a cleaner and smoother glass surface without the need for further grinding and polishing
The glass produced by these methods can be directly used in screen cover plates In an effort to disrupt monopolies and close the price gap with CPI, Zhao Hong Precision has introduced its own single-step transparent microcrystalline glass, achieving remarkable thinness Additionally, Tungshu Group’s Tengyu Photoelectric has launched the first single-step UTG production line, marking a significant milestone in foldable phone technology
Secondary chemical processing methods provide a viable alternative for glass manufacturers unable to directly product ultra-thin base glass at scale Companies like Wuku Token Sciences and Kasen Glass have made significant strides in establishing substantial mass production capabilities, becoming primary UTG suppliers for Huawei and Honor’s foldable screens Going forward, UTG suppliers must overcome challenges related to the plastic feel of the anti-shatter coating and yield issues arising from irregular cutting and hole drilling
TrendForce believes that in the medium to long term, CPI, due to its mature mass production technology and cost advantages, will likely remain a popular choice for mid-sized foldable products However, UTG suppliers will not only need to enhance the texture of their anti-shatter coatings but also overcome SCHOTT’s monopoly on sub-30 um base materials The future cost of UTG will largely depend on the few who control the production of thinner base glass and the efficiency of secondary thinning processes
Foldable phones are evolving to become thinner and more durable, surpassing flagship models in functionality and design Coupled with maturing processes and a more complete supply chain, TrendForce anticipates a gradual reduction in key material costs and overall production expenses These conditions set the stage for significant and sustainable market growth in the foldable phone sector
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email the Sales Department at DR_MI@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit https://wwwtrendforcecom/news/
TrendForce will launch our offline seminar on the 14th of December (Thursday) at Tokyo Bay Ariake Washington Hotel, during the time of SEMICON Japan This event will mainly focus on the dynamics and foresees in the 2024 tech market, including the memory, the semiconductor industry between Japan and Taiwan, foundry capacity change, and automotive and consumer electronics sectors, for the visitors’ attendance, please contact alanchen@trendforcecom or angelaliao@trendforcecom; the media attendance please contact estherfeng@trendforcecom
2023/09/26
The latest “Automotive Display Market Analysis” from TrendForce indicates that the overall demand for automotive display panels (automotive panels) is gradually stabilizing and shows an upward trend as the automotive market as a whole slowly recovers, and promotional activities related to smart cockpits continue to expand TrendForce estimates that the overall supply of automotive panels will maintain growth for 2023 Additionally, by 2026, TrendForce forecasts that the annual total supply of automotive panels will surpass 240 million pieces Furthermore, as panel makers improve their OLED products in terms of performance and cost optimization, the market share of OLED in the market for automotive panels is forecasted to reach 89% by 2026
The ongoing inflation has resulted in a significant decline in the demand for consumer electronics, prompting panel manufacturers to shift their focus towards automotive displays Regarding the development of automotive panels, automobile manufacturers are now increasingly demanding greater integration in terms of design and functionality This opens up new opportunities for panel makers to expand their presence downstream by offering system integration services Panel makers aim to loosen the tight control that traditional Tier-1 automotive suppliers have over various automotive parts and components Specifically, for displays used in cockpit systems, panel manufacturers are looking to establish a new kind of supply relationship with automobile manufacturers
Automotive displays, including rear-seat entertainment screens, passenger-side displays, central information displays, and digital clusters, are evolving into more powerful communication mediums Moreover, to integrate the various independent functions found in a traditional cockpit, larger screens and more flexible spatial designs are required Hence, there is room for further advancements in various display technologies For instance, pairing LCDs with a Mini LED backlight can significantly boost display brightness to over 1,000 nits, thereby improving display visibility when external conditions like snow and bright sunlight could cause interference OLED panels, in contrast to traditional LCDs, offer notable advantages They are self-emissive and thinner They have a higher refresh rate and can be built on flexible substrates These advantages can provide significant added value for automotive displays Flexible OLED panels, in particular, allow for more innovations in vehicle design and are primarily positioned for flagship and high-end products in the automotive market
In order to resolve the issue of durability for OLED among automotive applications, the technology is mostly adopted with Tandem OLED, which inter-concatenates and stacks multiple OLED components to form a high-efficiency OLED structure Double-stacked OLED components require 1/2 less current density than that of single-layer variations after concatenation and are able to improve by a minimum of a twofold increase in lifespan under a much lower power consumption from panels As for cost, Hybrid OLED panels are incorporated, where the assimilation between rigid OLED glass substrates and the thin-film packing technology used by flexible OLED would both reduce weight and cut cost, and curving effects can also be attained through thinned substrates
TrendForce commented that a closer partnership between panel makers and automobile manufacturers is bound to be inevitable, should the former wish to expedite their market shares, seeing how automotive displays require approximately 2-3 years for testing and qualification Subsequent to Samsung Display successively acquiring major orders from Ferrari and BMW, automotive leader LG Display has also announced to enhance its partnership with 9 luxury automotive brands by widening in incorporation of high-end automotive OLED panels, and is scheduled to mass produce its second generation Tandem OLED, which has been vastly improved in brightness and power consumption While LCD adopted with Mini LED BLU (Mini LED backlight technology) races to seize the automotive market through cost advantages, OLED is accelerating its entry into the high-end automotive display market by launching ultra-large, rollable, and transparent products
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/07/18
TrendForce’s latest report on OLED technology and the market indicates that OLED panels will secure more than 50% market share in the smartphone industry by 2023, thanks to a continuous decrease in costs However, the OLED penetration rate in other applications like TV, laptop, and tablets is considerably less, standing at under 3% To boost the market penetration of OLEDs, panel manufacturers must tackle more demanding technical challenges, including improved specifications and the need for effective cost reductions to meet market expectations
The report highlights the introduction of eLEAP technology by Japan Display Inc (JDI) For the first time, this technology employs a maskless technique, achieving lower power consumption, higher brightness, and an extended lifespan Two primary obstacles in high-generation OLED development—RGB evaporation interference and uneven film thickness caused by gravity-induced sag of the Fine Metal Mask (FMM) as it enlarges—are addressed by eLEAP By resolving these issues, eLEAP bolsters the development of higher-generation panels and increases production efficiency via mass production
In parallel developments, Visionox showcased its maskless ViP technology at the Society for Information Display’s annual Display Week The company has successfully reduced the gap between pixels by combining the lithographic isolation of pixels with advanced evaporation technology Furthermore, when the resolution reaches 800 PPI, the distance between the pixel layers is reduced to 10µm, which increases the opening rate by 319%, effectively enhancing the lifespan of the OLED However, challenges include the need to produce guide pillars for isolation, using line-source evaporation to control the evaporation angle, connecting the cathode and isolation pillars to reduce electrode impedance (auxiliary electrode), and managing yield loss from repeated processes
TrendForce has identified five advantages that Visionox's ViP technology has five distinct advantages for isolating OLED pixels First, the manufacturing process can address the color mixing yield issues caused by long-term FMM evaporation Second, individual pixel electrodes can not only increase overall lifespan but also mitigate losses from leakage currents Third, pixel density and brightness can be effectively elevated Fourth, the concurrent production of auxiliary electrodes could facilitate larger OLED applications in the future Lastly, the technology can overcome the limitations FMM imposes on pixel spacing, thus broadening its applications and aiding future high-generation development
Recently, several key industry players have announced ambitious plans Samsung declared an investment plan for its new G87 fab, BOE is planning its B16 project, JDI and HKC formed a strategic alliance for new technologies, and Visionox has an aggressive push into OLED technology and its market sectors These developments are responding not only to Apple's demand for medium-sized applications but also opening up new opportunities for OLED panels in other application markets By 2025, it is anticipated that with the completion of new high-generation facilities, continued technology development, and lifespan improvement of materials, the market penetration rate of OLED products will be significantly bolstered
Currently, China’s AMOLED production capacity accounts for 437% of the global market, slightly less than the capacity share held by South Korean panel manufacturers This capacity is divided among 4 to 5 Chinese panel factories As the current AMOLED capacity is oversupplied and it’s expected that future production capacity will only continue to grow, companies focusing exclusively on OLED production will likely continue to grapple with financial pressures It remains to be seen whether these companies will adopt a similar collaboration model to JDI and HKC given their varying technical capabilities Through the development of new technologies and strategic alliances or integrations, they will aim to enhance their overall international competitiveness—a development worth watching over the next 3 to 5 years
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/04/12
TrendForce’s latest report, “AMOLED Technology and Market Status”, reveals that OLED, the next generation of digital displays, has not only taken hold of the smartphone market but is also beginning to make its move into other applications Organic OLED materials are the core of the industry supply chain, accounting for 23% of the cost of making smartphone panels An increasing penetration rate has allowed the global value of OLED materials to be estimated at US$223 billion in 2022, with a YoY growth rate of 30% Production values are expected to reach US$3 billion by 2025, owing to the support of manufacturers
OLED light-emitting components are either based on polymers or small-molecule materials Polymers have poor solubility in organic solvents, which results in impure color and poor film uniformity However, when combined with printing technology, the high aperture ratio can fit more materials and compensate for the poor lifespan and efficiency of polymers Small-molecule materials have purer color and exhibit higher brightness, which can be applied to larger-generation OLED production However, they are currently limited to developing FMM and vapor deposition machines
OLED production begins with synthesizing intermediates from raw monomers Then, the intermediates are processed to become precursors before finally being sublimated and purified into terminal OLED materials When raw monomers are synthesized chemically into intermediates, there’s a gross margin of about 10–20% These are mainly supplied by Chinese manufacturing companies such as Jilin OLED Material, Ruilian New Materials, Aglaia Tech, and Shenzhen Mason Terminal materials are produced via sublimation and purification and their structure will not change through subsequent production Therefore, the chemical structure, processes, and formulas are essential to trade secrets for terminal material manufacturers The purity of these materials after sublimation is expected to be very high, meaning that technological barriers are also very high, allowing for gross margins as high as 60–70% The technology and patents are concentrated within a few foreign manufacturers However, the booming market has led to an influx of upstream manufacturers, gradually breaking down past technological barriers Some Chinese manufacturers have been able to achieve mass production of precursors and terminal materials, and are now actively competing in the supply chain and driving growth
Apart from two electrodes, the structure of an OLED component consists of organic light-emitting materials, including the main host (light-emitting layer), guest material (dopant), and functional layers (with electron or hole transport properties) DuPont and LG Chemical are the major manufacturers of red OLEDs, while Samsung DSI and Merck mostly produce green OLEDs UDC has a monopoly on red and green phosphorescent dopant materials due to patent barriers Blue light-emitting materials used to be primarily supplied by Idemitsu Kosan and Merck Recently, LG’s next generation OLED evo TV uses deuterium-based blue emitter materials—supplied by DuPont and LG Chemical—to improve blue light-emitting efficiency Its precursors are supplied by Ruilian New Materials
Besides established manufacturers like Tokuyama, Idemitsu Kosan, and LG, Chinese manufacturers are also beginning to enter into the market to supply functional layers, such as Laite’s Red Prime Samsung and UDC are planning to commercialize blue phosphorescent materials in 2024 in order to address the lifetime issues of blue OLEDs Many new technologies, such as South Korean materials manufacturer, Lordin’s, patented Zero Radius Intra-Molecular Energy Transfer (ZRIET) rely on the efficiency of energy transfer between the main host and dopant, which is highly dependent on the distance between them When that distance approaches zero, the quantum efficiencies of the molecules will not be affected at all Therefore, efficiency can be improved by controlling the speed of energy transfer between the internal molecules of the material Lordin has synthesized a material that maintains the respective characteristics of the main and dopant materials as well as a high energy transfer rate, which is expected to produce OLEDs that will be four times more efficient
TrendForce believes the next stage of mobile terminal products will shift from folding smartphones to smart wearables, IT, and automotive applications, which will place more stringent demand on OLED components The layout of panel manufacturers is becoming clearer thanks to brand endorsements LG, Samsung, and BOE are all aggressively competing for priority for the Tokki G87 evaporation machine to gain an advantage in expanding application The accelerated commercialization of blue phosphorescent materials and more innovative technologies, such as Samsung’s vertical evaporation developed with ULVAC, eLeap lithography, and printing processes to improve the aperture ratio will help push the expansion of OLEDs in the display industry Meanwhile, costs will become more competitive as more Chinese manufacturers enter the market
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/01/16
Annual global shipments of foldable smartphones are projected to climb from around 128 million units for 2022 to around 185 million units for 2023, says TrendForce in its latest report on the market for OLED displays Among the key components for a foldable smartphone, hinges play a critical role in determining the cost of the whole device In a foldable smartphone, hinges are responsible for the durability or flex life of the foldable display, the visibility of the fold crease on the display, the feel of flipping the device, and many other functions that are vital to user experience In other words, the quality of hinges will directly affect consumers’ willingness to purchase a foldable smartphone With the penetration rate of foldable models rising in the smartphone market, the value of the global market for hinges used in foldable OLED smartphones will rise by 146% YoY to above the level of US$500 million for 2023
Currently, the designs of the hinges used in foldable smartphones fall under two main categories: teardrop-shaped and U-shaped The former contains many complex parts and costs several times higher than the latter As the penetration rate of foldable models rises, TrendForce believes cost pressure will be the foremost issue facing smartphone brands that have adopted teardrop-shaped hinge
Advances in Hinge Design Are Instrumental in Driving Sales of Foldable Smartphones, and U-Shaped Hinge Has Majority Market Share
Looking at the distribution of the foldable smartphone market by brand, Samsung that relies on U-shaped hinges had the largest market share of 82% in 2022 Samsung’s main suppliers for foldable smartphone hinges include KH Vatech and S-connect Going forward, Samsung will diversify its hinge suppliers in order to further cut costs Other smartphone brands have adopted teardrop-shaped hinges, and their collective market share for foldable models came to almost 20% in 2022 Suppliers for teardrop-shaped hinges include Amphenol and Asia Vital Components (AVC)
TrendForce’s analysis finds that the three major aspects of hinge design is allowable screen perimeter, balance of stress, and material composition From consumers’ perspective, allowable screen perimeter affects the depth of the fold crease, balance of stress affects the opening and closing of the device, and material composition affects the weight of the device Fold crease is the issue that is most brought up by users of foldable devices TrendForce points out that the display of a foldable smartphone does not actually completely fold flat when closed Based on the hinge design, the foldable display will either turn into a “U” or a shape resembling a water droplet The most notable difference between U-shaped and teardrop-shaped hinges is the allowable screen perimeter and the crease effect Given the same thickness of the device, teardrop-shaped hinge has a larger allowable screen perimeter than U-shaped hinge, and the corresponding crease is less visible
Balance of stress is the design factor that affects the durability of the hinge (as expressed in the number of folding and unfolding sequences) and the smoothness of the opening and closing actions The parts of a hinge have to be assembled in a way that balances out the various forces of a folding or unfolding action, thereby minimizing wear and tear As for material composition, foldable smartphone hinges have complex parts that significantly add to the weight and assembly cost The hinges for the earlier generations of foldable smartphones were made from stainless steel (SUS) using a metal injection molding (MIM) process Later on, smartphone brands adopted aerospace materials that contain rare and expensive metals Lately, there has been a switch to carbon fiber composites Besides simplifying hinge designs, smartphone brands have also been seeking light and strong composite materials in order to further lower the device weight
With regard to the foldable smartphones that are now on the market, the “ultra-slim” Mix Fold 2 that was recently released by Xiaomi has created a significant buzz With a thickness of just 112mm when folded, the Mix Fold 2 features a carbon fiber composite that offers a substantial improvement in terms of grip and feel Subsequently, other brands have also followed suit and adopted the same kind of material Examples include HONOR’s Magic Vs and OPPO’s Find N2 The hinges of the Magic Vs are also noted for embracing a mortise-and-tenon structure that is made using a one-piece molding process This design reduces the number of hinge parts and further narrows the weight difference between foldable and non-foldable smartphones
Apart from smartphone brands, panel makers have also gotten involved in the development of foldable smartphone hinges For instance, CSOT has unveiled a “semi-set” production flow that integrates integrates an OLED display module with the required hinges, thereby resulting in a one-piece component Panel makers hope that with this kind of solution, they will be able to confirm with smartphone brands about the form factor and design of the foldable display early on during the course of device development This, in turn, will accelerate the product development cycle and ensure that the device is fully optimized in terms of lifespan and performance
Smartphone Brands’ Strategies for Foldable Device Market
A survey of the various solutions for foldable smartphone hinges reveals that Samsung has stayed with the U-shaped, single-axis design for its Galaxy Z Fold series A torque module was introduced with the Z Fold 2, and it enables the device to stay open or flex at different angles Also, for the Z Fold series, Samsung uses hinges that are made with a process involving MIM and computer numerical control (CNC) In other words, parts are mainly made with precision machining and fit together through precision assembling Even though consumers do care about crease, Samsung does not focus too much on this particular issue Instead, it concentrates its efforts on simplifying the hinge design Cutting down the number of parts and raising the number of Tier-2 outsourcing partners will save costs At the same time, the aim of creating a lighter device can be achieved
The outstanding issues that have yet to be effectively resolved in the development of foldable smartphones are the inability of the device to fully close and the notable body thickness Nevertheless, TrendForce believes that Samsung will continue to work on U-shaped hinges because it wants to lower costs while maintaining a healthy profit margin for its foldable smartphones With this approach, Samsung can make foldable models more popular and capture a large slice of market share for this type of product in the low-end segment
As for other smartphone brands that are more concerned about user experience, their development efforts will center on the teardrop-shaped, dual-axis design that requires many more complex parts and costly metallic materials for support (eg, “liquid metals” and other materials that are usually reserved for aerospace applications) In addition to the high manufacturing cost, there is also the substantial weight that teardrop-shaped hinges add to the device Currently, there is no effective way to resolve the weight problem Nevertheless, teardrop-shaped hinge is a design concept that mainly addresses the issue of the fold crease and presently serves as a feature that helps further segment the market for foldable smartphones (ie, high-end ones with teardrop-shaped hinges versus those with U-shaped hinges in the lower range)
At CES 2023, the well-known smartphone brands showed off various concept devices featuring foldable displays For instance, there were models that leverage foldability and stretchability to expand screen size This would allow adjustments in screen size and aspect ratio for different use scenarios while maintaining the same device form factor In the future, the introduction of new kinds of products such as foldable ones could lead to a reshuffling of the smartphone market and radical changes in product positioning strategy across the all price segments, from the high-end to the lower range
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
