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2023/10/11
TrendForce reports that the second quarter revealed notebook inventory channels displaying healthy levels Both North America and Asia-Pacific regions are demonstrating a healthy appetite for mid and low-tier consumer models This isn’t just a race to restock; it’s a strategic move to gear up for the anticipated back-to-school wave in the third quarter And here’s the zinger—just as Google prepped to roll out its licensing fees, Chromebook shipments hit a peak This surge propelled Q2 notebook shipments to 4252 million units, marking a 216% quarterly leap However, a look at the overall picture reveals a total of 775 million units shipped in the first half of the year—down 235% YoY
TrendForce further points out that for 2H23, growth momentum is anchored in the purchasing power of end consumers However, with the economic outlook of the two major notebook markets—the US and Europe—shrouded in uncertainty, the typical seasonal purchasing demand is muted What’s more, some of this demand was already met in Q2 As a result, Q3 notebook shipments are forecast to witness a moderate growth of 38%, tallying up to 4413 million units Annual notebook shipments are projected to hit 163 million units, marking a YoY decline of 122%
Gearing up for 2024, the tech horizon looks promising As market inventories align with healthier metrics and anticipated inflationary pressures begin to stabilize, global notebook shipments are poised for a potential rebound Yet, it’s not all roses With the global consumer environment still feeling the pinch, even as demand gradually ticks up, the market hasn’t flashed strong bullish signs just yet TrendForce projects an annual growth rate hovering between 2–5% for 2024, pushing shipments slightly above pre-pandemic levels Post inventory adjustments, the broader market is set for a gentle recovery However, all eyes remain on the twin giants of consumer markets—China and the US—to gauge if we can indeed anticipate a more robust shipment surge
In the latter half of the year, the absence of seasonal market activity paired with subdued demand has not only impacted corporate profitability but also posed challenges for the upcoming year’s budgeting Concurrently, the rise of AI and the emphasis on its foundational infrastructure might sideline IT expenditures While Windows 10 is set to end its support in October 2025, it’s anticipated to spur a wave of business device upgrades starting in 2024 However, TrendForce believes that based on the demand for commercial notebooks, the momentum and urgency of this upgrade wave might be delayed and subdued, making significant shipment growth less probable
On the consumer demand front, when examining the world’s economic powerhouses, China faces challenges due to a subdued economic and employment environment, casting a somewhat pessimistic view on its market development In contrast, the US saw a robust rebound in demand in 2023, but anticipations hint at tempered growth in 2024 Europe, after undergoing a two-year demand recalibration, might witness a consumer resurgence in the latter half, should the broader economic climate brighten Finally, Southeast Asia, buoyed by a burgeoning consumer segment, forecasts upward-trending shipments, indicating a modest growth in consumer-focused devices
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email the Sales Department at DR_MI@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://wwwtrendforcecom/news/
2023/07/04
TrendForce has predicted a noticeable recovery in the global notebook market for 2Q23 Shipments are projected to hit 4045 million units—a QoQ increase of 157% This marks a pivotal turnaround after six consecutive quarters of decline However, despite this growth, shipments are still down by 116% YoY TrendForce expects this upward trend to persist into the third quarter, estimating global notebook shipments to reach 4308 million units, albeit at a decelerated growth rate of 65%
Notebook brands were primarily focused on reducing excess terminal inventory in 1Q23, which led to slower procurement and subsequently impacted ODM sell-in sales However, as Q2 unfolds and inventory levels of finished products and components start to stabilize, supply chain pressures should ease, triggering a wave of restocking demand This trend is expected to extend into Q3—a season typically characterized by robust sales due to back-to-school demand and shopping promotions, further stimulating inventory demand and fostering further growth in global notebook shipments
Entry-level consumer models and Chromebook demand show early recovery in Q2
Although the notebook market has yet to fully recover, TrendForce reports that since March, restocking orders for certain notebook models have started to surface in several markets, including North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia Ongoing economic constraints, which limit consumers’ disposable income, mean that restocking demand is primarily for low-to-mid-range and budget-friendly consumer models, predominantly those that retail between US$400 and $600
Meanwhile, after seven quarters of adjustment, Chromebook tender orders have begun to emerge in North America, Indonesia, and India Additionally, with UNICEF’s support, educational reconstruction has also been emerging in Ukraine Notably, Google’s decision to initiate a Chromebook licensing fee from July 1, 2023, could potentially impact Chromebooks’ competitiveness in the entry-level market Nevertheless, this impending fee has catalyzed a boost in overall Chromebook shipments for 2Q23 as brands attempt to pre-emptively circumvent these costs
TrendForce asserts that global notebook shipments likely hit their lowest point in Q1, and Q2 should see a more distinct quarterly growth Nonetheless, a widening consumer price gap could dampen this market momentum, leading to a forecasted slowdown in growth from Q3 onwards Given the persistent economic downturn, TrendForce expects the notebook market to remain in a consolidation phase throughout 2023, with an estimated total shipment volume of about 163 million units—a YoY reduction of 122%
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/01/17
Due to the various major events that affected the global economy and politics, the overall demand for consumer electronics made a sharp downward turn in 2022, and global shipments of notebook (laptop) computers began to fall over the quarters TrendForce’s latest analysis finds that global shipments of notebook computers (from ODMs) reached just around 186 million units for 2022, showing a YoY drop of 245% As for 2023, the outlook on the performance of the notebook computer market remains uncertain at this moment TrendForce expects the YoY decline to moderate to about 78%, but shipments are projected to total only 171 million units
Because market demand was anemic in 4Q22, promotional activities related to the traditional year-end peak season did not generate a lot of sales momentum Looking at regional markets, notebook brands (PC OEMs) slashed prices in the US and China, but their sales results still did not meet expectations This development was mainly attributed to factors such as high inflation suppressing consumers’ disposable income Since the sales results for 4Q22 were lackluster, efforts to get rid of the existing stockpile of whole devices might continue through 2Q23 Furthermore, order placements from channels are going to be much more restrained
Additionally, the Lunar New Year holiday for 2023 is going to arrive earlier compared with the previous years, and notebook brands have anticipated that the course of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreaks in China will become a huge market variable after the holiday Besides low demand visibility, whether device shipments will be impacted by another round of pandemic-induced component shortages has also been a major concern In view of this situation, notebook brands have raised inventory for their popular device models Moreover, they completed shipments for some orders ahead of schedule before the end of 2022 Because of these actions, global notebook shipments are forecast to drop by 95% QoQ to 351 million units for 1Q23 This projection is a 10-year low for first-quarter result
Supply Chain Is Shifting, and US-Based Brands Are Main Driving Force Behind ODMs’ Relocation Efforts
The continuation of the US-China trade dispute has led to increasing geopolitical tensions across the globe Hence, the major electronics brands have revamped their supply chain strategies in recent years Among them, US-based brands have been the most aggressive in relocating device production and finding alternative sources of component supply While political and economic pressures are the well-recognized factors that propel US-based brands to change their strategies, these major brands themselves also have the scale to persuade the rest of the participants in the supply chain to follow their lead According to TrendForce’s latest observations, strategic considerations about future geopolitical developments could lead to two models for notebook production located outside China
The first model will be centered on Vietnam as the country has both geographical and demographical advantages Materials and components from China can be quickly transported to assembly plants in Vietnam At the same time, Vietnam has a relatively young and low-cost labor pool The demographical advantage might be the more significant incentive for brands and ODMs to set up shop there Presently, ODMs such as Compal, Wistron, and Foxconn have begun to build notebook assembly lines in Vietnam in response to the requests made by their clients from the US Additionally, among the US-based notebook brands, the leader in commercial models has set the target of raising the share of its device shipments from Vietnam to 20% for 2023 Moreover, this brand will reduce the share of its device shipments from China to just 20~30% by 2027
Likewise, another US-based electronics brand that has gained substantial brand influence with its in-house SOCs has decided to establish a complete manufacturing cluster for its products in Vietnam From that country, this brand will ship not only notebook computers but also earphones, smartphones, etc TrendForce estimates that Vietnam will account for 10% of its notebook computer shipments for 2023
As for the second model, it involves setting up assembly lines and raising device production in or near a sizable consumer market One US-based brand (that is separate from the two that are mentioned above) will be raising device production volume at its assembly lines in Mexico in order to better serve the North American market Moreover, the same brand is seeking partners in India so as to set up local assembly lines that manufacture products targeting local consumers Since foreign manufacturers that set up shop in India will benefit from a substantial tax incentive, this brand will be able to attain a considerable price advantage as well Data from the UN indicate that India’s population will surpass that of China within 2023 become the world’s most populous country Hence, electronics brands around the world are preparing to make the Indian market their main battleground A potential development that the market looks forward to in the near future is whether India can replicate the same kind of model that has existed in China for outsourcing and selling electronics
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/11/02
According to TrendForce, global notebook shipments in 4Q22 are likely to decline to 429 million units, down 72% QoQ and 323% YoY, lower than the same period before the pandemic In addition, market demand is affected by negative factors such as inventory, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and rising inflation, leading to a downward revision of notebook market shipments in 2022 to 189 million units, a 23% decline YoY, with the proportion of shipments in the first and second half of the year at 53:47, the first top-heavy scenario in the past ten years
According to research, the structural imbalance between notebook market supply and demand remains unresolved at present, leading this year's notebook shipments to present a downward movement trend quarter by quarter TrendForce believes, after current inventory pressure gradually returns to a healthy level, Chromebooks may be the first wave of products that will see a recovery in demand by 2Q23 and traditional cyclical growth momentum is expected to return to the market, with shipments set to rebound slightly from 1444 million in 2022 to 162 million units
As mentioned above, pressure will continue in the consumer and commercial notebook market Although demand for the former has been adjusting for five quarters, peak season momentum is still expected to play a major role Coupled with assistance from the introduction of new CPUs, shipments of consumer notebooks will track closer to traditional peak season demand but declines will be inevitable throughout the year Commercial demand faces dollar rate hikes leading to higher corporate borrowing rates and post-pandemic scenarios including capital expenditure adjustment, downsizing, and layoffs, which will cause an even greater decline than that of consumer notebooks
In addition, although pandemic-induced demand has gradually weakening, hindering the growth of the high-end notebook market in 2022, TrendForce has observed that gaming and creator notebooks will remain cash cows Facing the dilemma of the gradual decline in global notebook shipments, the high-margin nature of the segmented market has become more prominent Major notebook manufacturers and processor brands such as Intel and Nvidia are all competing to expand, enhancing consumers’ user experience by means of high specifications and customization, while stimulating potential market demand to become a category of notebook computers capable of continual future growth
However, inflationary pressure and geopolitics remain as variables in the general environment and the consumer electronics sector has borne the brunt of this uncertainty The future shipment scale of the notebook computer market must still reference these relevant developments closely In addition, considering that China continues to adopt a tough Zero-COVID policy after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the adversarial relationship between it and the United States, supply chain strategies are also under scrutiny by major manufacturers According to TrendForce research, due to the cumbersome and vast industrial settlement characteristics associated with notebook components, only major American manufacturers are currently promoting production development in Vietnam Even though industrial chain reorganization to decouple from China has been in motion for some time, it still needs to be promoted by brands and ODMs in the short term
As the global economy maintains course through battering headwinds, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the 2023 economic growth rate will be approximately 27%, down 05 percentage points from 2022, which will be the most severe economic winter in 20 years Overall, TrendForce estimates that there is no sign of obvious recovery in the global notebook market in 2023 Although the annual decline in shipments has abated to 69%, it will only reach 176 million units
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
