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Press Releases
Enterprise SSD Prices Projected to Increase by More Than 10% QoQ in 3Q21 Due to Growing Procurement Capacity, Says TrendForce



Enterprise SSD procurement has been rising on the back of growing server shipments since 2Q21, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations In particular, the share of 8TB products in shipments of SSDs to data centers has shown the most noticeable growth, which is expected to persist through 3Q21 However, certain SSD components and parts may be in shortage due to insufficient foundry capacity TrendForce is therefore revising the QoQ hikes in contract prices of enterprise SSDs for 3Q21 to 10-15% from the previous projection of 5-10% TrendForce further indicates that the high demand for enterprise SSDs in 3Q21 is attributed to several factors First, North American cloud service providers (hyperscalers) have pretty much completed their inventory adjustments and now continue to expand their storage capacity Second, the flow of incoming orders to traditional server brands is getting stronger over the quarters as government agencies and SMBs increase their budgets for IT infrastructure Third, Intel and AMD are ramping up production for server CPUs based on their respective new processor platforms Following the adoption of new CPUs, the overall demand for enterprise SSDs has also shifted to higher-density products because clients want to upgrade their computing power and storage capacity Specifically, demand is mainly trending toward 4/8TB SSDs since raising NAND Flash density can lower the cost of SSD deployment Supply leader Samsung will likely gain control over enterprise SSD pricing in the market Regarding the supply end, Samsung has a higher flexibility in supplying SSDs compared to the other suppliers because it has a higher share of in-house components for its storage products Therefore, in view of the possible shortage in certain SSD components, Samsung will likely be able to further expand its market share for enterprise SSDs Furthermore, Samsung’s products are expected to account for more than 50% of enterprise SSDs (in terms of bits) shipped to data centers in North America in 3Q21 This dominance will likely further Samsung’s ability to dictate market prices going forward Intel, on the other hand, has been constrained in its ability to manufacture enterprise SSDs due to a shortage of PMICs In addition, Intel has mostly been fulfilling orders for QLC products As a result, Intel’s market share may potentially decrease in the TLC-dominant enterprise SSD sector Regarding other suppliers including Kioxia and SK Hynix, although they have been able to raise their market shares due to gradual adoption of their products by clients, they are unlikely to catch up to Samsung for the time being On the PC client SSD front, at the moment, demand for notebook computers has remained strong, while the supply of SSD controller IC is still relatively tight TrendForce therefore forecasts a slight 3-8% QoQ increase in client SSD contract prices for 3Q21 Regardless, suppliers will not slow down their process migrations Starting from 3Q21, 176L PC client SSDs will be available on the market, with a corresponding increase in supply bits in the upstream SSD supply chain For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Ramp-up of Key Components Likely to Improve Server Production Despite Delayed Fulfillment Schedules for Servers in 2Q21, Says TrendForce



The shipment performances of server manufacturers for 2021 have mainly been driven by applications in the post-pandemic new normal, including data center build-outs by major CSPs, accelerated cloud migration efforts by various enterprises, roadside server infrastructures for self-driving cars, and industry 40 technologies, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations However, TrendForce is revising its forecasted QoQ growth of global server shipment for 2Q21 from 196% down to 177%, as the integration of new Intel and AMD CPU platforms into branded servers has been slightly slowed down, and certain infrastructure projects in China have been deferred TrendForce expects these unfulfilled server orders to be fulfilled in 2H21, thus driving up global server shipment for the upcoming quarters TrendForce previously indicated that the inventory gaps in the server supply chain remained unresolved as lead times for certain key components were also extended However, smartphone brands have been scaling back their device production in response to the impact of the latest wave of COVID-19 outbreaks in India, so the demand reduction on their part will free up foundry capacity for components used in other end products TrendForce therefore expects that the supply of key components for servers will loosen and return to the level that will meet the demand from most production lines in 2Q21 Hence, the issue of inventory gaps will eventually be resolved Upcoming mass production of new CPU platforms from Intel and AMD means CSPs will not cut back on server procurement in 3Q21 With regards to North American CSPs, the server procurement activities of GCP, AWS, Azure, and Facebook have been stronger in 1H21 compared to the same period last year, with GCP and AWS in particular showing the strongest upside demand for servers TrendForce expects North American CSPs to further expand their procurement in 3Q21 as server demand will be propped up by the mass production and shipments of server CPUs based on the new processor platforms from Intel and AMD In China, the four major domestic CSPs known as BBAT (ie, Baidu, ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent) have been mainly focusing on expanding operations within the home country during 1H21 They have yet to implement plans for significant overseas expansions Moreover, the Chinese server market was affected by the Lunar New Year holiday Consequently, China’s server demand has been relatively weak TrendForce believes that Tencent and Baidu will account for much of the country’s server demand in 2021 Tencent is expanding its collocation business in order to meet the demand from tier-2 CSPs, while Baidu is deploying more servers as part of its efforts to build the infrastructure for self-driving cars (eg, the installation of roadside units) Server DRAM procurement will not lose momentum, while a price hike will likely take place again in 3Q21 DRAM suppliers have shifted more of their production capacity to server DRAM due to rising demand, but the supply fulfillment rate for server DRAM orders is noticeably below 100% TrendForce therefore expects server DRAM prices to increase by an estimated 3-8% QoQ in 3Q21 With respect to the enterprise SSD market, demand will likely skyrocket in the second half of this year due to an expected spike in shipment of servers deployed in data centers as Intel and AMD ramp up shipments of server CPUs based on their respective new processor platforms in 3Q21 Furthermore, orders for notebook (laptop) computers remain brisk, and the overall NAND Flash supply will get tighter in 3Q21 due to the arrival of the peak production season for consumer electronics Taking these factors into account, TrendForce projects that contract prices of enterprise SSDs will rise by nearly 10% for 3Q21 For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Outage at Taipower’s Hsinta Power Plant Found to Have No Impact on Memory Fabs and Foundries, Says TrendForce



The Hsinta Power Plant in Taiwan’s Kaohsiung City was shut down unexpectedly at 2:37 pm on May 13 (today local time) due to malfunction The effect of this incident has been felt across the entire island TrendForce has undertaken a swift survey on the damages and operation status of each supplier, and the results indicate that most DRAM and NAND Flash suppliers are provisioning power to their fabs normally; although some fabs experienced a reduction in voltage, this did not impact production Regarding foundry, the Southern Taiwan Science Park located in Tainan sustained a relatively higher impact, with power outages occurring in some fabs, though the uninterruptible power supplies came into operation and ensured the power outage had only limited impact, according to preliminary investigations With regards to DRAM production capacity, Taiwan accounts for about 21% of the global total On the other hand, with regards to NAND Flash capacity, Taiwan hosts production capacities from Macronix, PSMC, Winbond, with these capacities collectively accounting for about 1% of the global total Finally, with regards to foundry capacity in Taiwan, combined 12-inch capacities from TSMC, UMC, Vanguard, and PSMC account for about 56% of the global total, while their 8-inch capacities account for about 40% of the global total As the power outage occurred due to an unknown malfunction within the power plant, government-run utility Taipower has implemented rolling blackout in order to compensate for insufficient generation capacity Regarding the impact of this incident on Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, supplying power to local wafer fabs is going to be the top priority for Taipower because even the shortest power disruption can have a devastating effect on the operation of chip production lines and lead to considerable losses Currently, Taipower has no plan to extend rolling blackout to areas where wafer fabs (including DRAM, NAND Flash, and foundry plants) are located For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom

Press Releases
Growth in Total Smartphone Production for 2021 Drops to 8.5% YoY Due to India’s Second Wave of Coronavirus, Says TrendForce


Consumer Electronics

TrendForce’s investigations find that India has become the second largest market for smartphones since 2019 However, the recent worsening of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country has severely impaired India’s domestic economy and subsequently dampened various smartphone brands’ production volume and sales (sell-in) performances there TrendForce is therefore revising the forecasted YoY growth in global smartphone production for 2021 from 94% down to 85%, with a yearly production volume of 136 billion units and potential for further decreases going forward TrendForce further indicates that the top five smartphone brands (Samsung, Apple, Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo) have either set up assembly plants in India or sought assistance from EMS providers with operations in the country Hence, the share of made-in-India smartphones has been on the rise over the years, even though the majority of the domestically manufactured devices are still for meeting the demand of the home market Judging from the current state of Indian smartphone manufacturing, TrendForce expects the second wave to reduce the country’s smartphone production volume for 2Q21 and 3Q21 by a total of 12 million units, in turn resulting in a 75% YoY decrease in smartphone production in India for the whole year In India, the second wave of COVID-19 has heavily impacted the middle and upper classes and weakened the sales of smartphones in 2Q21 India’s demographic dividend has generated an enormous demand in the domestic smartphone market As well, the Indian government has been actively promoting domestic electronics manufacturing so as to boost the economy and create new job opportunities On one hand, the Indian government has instituted a more restrictive tariff policy to force the localization of the supply chain On the other hand, it is offering incentives to international smartphone brands so that they will expand the share of local device production According to local news, people from the more affluent middle and upper classes are being hit the hardest by the second wave This development will directly impact the country’s smartphone market in 2Q21 by weakening domestic consumer demand and in turn causing a drop in the ASP of smartphones Smartphone brands are therefore expected to closely monitor their inventories of whole devices and adjust their subsequent production plans accordingly The top four smartphone brands in India, which are Xiaomi, OPPO, Samsung, and Vivo, with respective market shares of 25%, 23%, 22%, and 16%, collectively account for about 86% of the country’s total sales As these brands primarily focus on the US$100-$250 product segment, the worsening pandemic has had an impact on all of them With regards to manufacturing operations, most factories are reportedly operating normally without being disrupted by the pandemic However, the accelerated spread of the coronavirus may adversely affect the lower and middle classes, who comprise the vast majority of the labor force Should the health crisis in India remain unaddressed, TrendForce believes that the country’s import/export operations may come to a standstill as a result, and transportation of key smartphone components may also be disrupted On the whole, if the pandemic were to remain uncontained in India throughout 2Q21, then the country’s economic outlook for 2H21 would likely be less than optimistic, and there would be a further reduction in global smartphone production for the year If these developments were to take place, then TrendForce proposes a “bear case scenario” in which the global smartphone production for the year increases by less than 8% YoY For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom

Press Releases
Impact of Power Outage on TSMC Fab14 P7 Still Remaining Under Assessment, with Production of Automotive MCU and CIS Logic Products Hit Hardest, Says TrendForce



TSMC’s Fab14 P7 in the Southern Taiwan Science Park suffered a power outage on April 14th The cause of the power outage was an accidental severing of an underground power cable during construction work nearby According to TrendForce’s latest investigations, the facility accounts for around 4% of TSMC’s total 12-inch wafer foundry capacity and around 2% of the global 12-inch wafer foundry capacity, and TSMC is still assessing the exact figures for the wafers that have to be scrapped and the wafers that can be reworked According to the latest available information, power was fully restored to the fab site at 7:30 pm on April 14th The diesel uninterruptible power supply (DUPS) of the facility kicked in instantly when the power cable was cut, but there was still a short period of power interruption and voltage drop As a result, some of the equipment systems in the facility temporarily experienced operational irregularity or malfunction Based on past experiences with this type of incident, TrendForce believes that it will take 2-7 days to recalibrate the equipment systems so that they can return to normal operation For TSMC, this power outage incident has had implications on both revenue and production With respect to revenue, TrendForce’s own analysis indicates that the disposal of the wafers that are too damaged for rework will bring about a revenue impact of US$10-25 million This amount represents less than 01% of TSMC’s annual total revenue On the other hand, with respect to production, the Fab14 P7 facilities contain 45/40nm and 16/12nm production lines, and the outage will primarily impair end products including smartphones and automobiles, since automotive chips, which are in extreme shortage at the moment, are manufactured at the 45/40nm nodes, and 45/40nm capacities are among the most insufficient among all foundry capacities TrendForce further indicates that clients whose wafer inputs for automotive MCU and CIS logic products (manufactured at the 45/40nm nodes) are bearing the brunt of the outage’s impact mainly include NXP, Renesas, and Sony In particular, Sony CIS 40nm Logic products are primarily supplied for high-end smartphones However, as Sony manufactures these products in its in-house facilities as well, even if TSMC were to fully discard this batch of wafers, Sony’s supplies will remain relatively unaffected in the short run On the other hand, after the automotive market entered a gradual recovery in 2H20, automotive MCUs have been in shortage due to automakers’ insufficient inventory Furthermore, a fire broke out at Renesas’ Naka-based 12-inch fab on March 19, and the fab’s cleanrooms were severely damaged as a result As of now, manufacturing operations at the Naka fab have yet to resume Since TSMC has been allocating some of its production capacities in Fab14 to these products as a substitute for the Naka fab, TrendForce believes that the power outage incident will likely exacerbate the shortage of automotive MCUs going forward For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom

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