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Press Releases
Consumer Demand Remains Stagnant, Supply Chain Inventories Remain High, DRAM Q4 Price Drop to Expanded to 13~18%, Says TrendForce



According to TrendForce research, rising inflation has weakened demand for consumer products, flattening the peak of peak season In 3Q22, memory bit consumption and shipments continued to exhibit quarterly decline Due to a significant decline in memory demand, terminal buyers also delayed purchases, leading to further escalation of supplier inventory pressure At the same time, the strategies of various DRAM suppliers to increase their market share remain unchanged There have been cases of "consolidated Q3/Q4 price negotiations" or "negotiating quantity before pricing" in the market, which are the reasons leading to a ballooning of declining DRAM prices to 13~18% in 4Q22 In terms of PC DRAM, due to weak demand for notebooks, PC OEMs will remain focused on destocking DRAM inventory While the DRAM supply side has not actually reduced production since operating profit remains favorable, bit output continues to rise and pressure on suppliers' inventory becomes increasingly obvious From the perspective of DDR4 and DDR5, the price drop forecast in 4Q22 is 13~18% with DDR5 declining more than DDR4 However, as the penetration rate of DDR5 continues to rise, coupled with a higher unit price, the penetration rate of DDR5 in the PC DRAM sector will increase 13~15% in 4Q22, which will buoy the average unit price of overall PC DRAM (combined DDR5 and DDR4) marginally and PC DRAM pricing in 4Q22 is estimated to drop by approximately 10~15% In terms of server DRAM, server terminals have reduced server DRAM bit purchases due to a delay in their new platform and shipments of whole servers is expected to decline in 4Q22 Client server DRAM inventory will be at a high watermark for approximately 9-12 weeks At the same time, as OEMs and Chinese cloud service providers have slowed their purchasing momentum, manufacturers have shifted focus to negotiating pricing and volume with North American cloud service providers However, output cannot be effectively digested, compounding manufacturers’ inventory pressure In addition, barring the binding two-quarter consolidated price schemes originally negotiated in 3Q22, it cannot be ruled out that at the end of this year, sellers will offer buyers lower pricing to make advanced purchases for 1Q23 Therefore, the quarterly decline in DDR4 pricing in 4Q22 is likely to be as severe as 13~18% DDR5 will officially enter mass production in 4Q22 with sample pricing dropping by 25~30% compared with sample pricing in the previous quarter However, the initial penetration rate of mass production is only around 5% Therefore, the impact on overall server DRAM (combined DDR5 and DDR4) pricing is limited and server DRAM prices are estimated to  drop by approximately 13~18% in 4Q22 In terms of Mobile DRAM, smartphone brands continue to adjust their mobile DRAM inventory Inventory levels are expected to be maintained at 7-9 weeks by the end of 3Q22 and variables remain in the seller’s market Therefore, smartphone brands continue to revise their annual production targets downward which increases the difficulty of destocking mobile DRAM As the proportion of advanced processes utilized by manufacturers continues to grow, their contribution to mobile DRAM bit output has increased These factories’ consolidated price negotiation strategy in 2H22 has yet to bear fruit, so demand from client brands did not increase Although new Apple products are bound to boost market demand in 4Q22, due to the pressure exerted by previously accumulated inventory and increased 4Q22 supply, pressure on factory inventory will worsen The price of mobile DRAM is estimated to drop by approximately 13~18% in 4Q22 and it may continue to deteriorate In terms of Graphics DRAM, TrendForce expects another round of price cuts for graphics cards However, various types of terminal promotions can only eliminate preexisting inventory, which possesses limited value in driving new demand Demand for GDDR6 8Gb and 16Gb has weakened simultaneously due to buyer inventory adjustment Buyers’ purchasing volume was not stimulated even though DRAM suppliers slashed prices in 3Q22 Therefore, preexisting graphics DRAM inventory continues to pile up, creating greater pressure coupled with the gradual production of previous wafer starts From the perspective of 4Q22, although there are only two GDDR6 8Gb suppliers, Samsung and SK hynix, due to huge inventory pressure, the two parties will inevitably compete for orders by undercutting the other’s pricing Therefore, the decline of GDDR6 8Gb in 4Q22 may be higher than GDDR6 16Gb, lowering prices by approximately 10~15% In terms of consumer DRAM, although networking benefited from an alleviation of materials shortages and infrastructure upgrades in Europe and the United States stabilizing consumer DRAM shipments, offsetting declining demand for other end products proved difficult In a down price cycle, customers have kept their inventories at healthy levels and are not actively stocking Demand for consumer DRAM is expected to remain weak Affected by downward revisions in smartphone production throughout the year, demand for image sensors (CIS) has also declined Therefore, Korean manufacturers have slowed the pace of migrating old processes (DDR3/DDR4) to CIS, resulting in continuous output of heavy consumer DRAM bit volume and inventory pressure that has become difficult to reduce As oversupply has not eased, DDR3 and DDR4 prices are expected to drop by 10-15% in 4Q22 and overall consumer prices will drop by 10-15% For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Impact of Earthquake on Production Status of Taiwan's Semiconductor and Panel Industries Limited, Says TrendForce


Semiconductors , Display

On the evening of September 17, an earthquake with a magnitude of 64 on the Richter scale occurred in Guanshan Township, Taitung Yesterday (9/18) afternoon, an earthquake with a magnitude of 68 on the Richter scale occurred in Chishang Township, Taitung Following up on these recent powerful earthquakes, TrendForce’s investigation into their impact on Taiwan's semiconductor and panel industries is as follows: In terms of foundries, due to shock-absorbing plant designs, earthquake vibrations inside fabs are one level of magnitude less than outside In terms of equipment manufacturers, currently there are no reports of substantial factory damage In the worst case, some machinery required initialization after crashing In terms of memory, Nanya Technology has already carried out a shutdown inspection If there was any wafer damage, Nanya maintains sufficient inventory to compensate Micron recalled engineers to inspect equipment and has confirmed no losses Thus, the capacity utilization rate of these two companies has not been affected nor has supply In terms of panel makers, the panel industry is currently on a down cycle with serious sustained oversupply issues Panel makers are reducing production in succession Global average utilization rate in 3Q22 is expected to be revised to 65% Innolux, located in Tainan, also started reducing production on a large scale in September Thus the actual impact of the recent earthquakes should be limited in severity According to TrendForce investigations, machinery had been slowed or shut down for maintenance during the earthquake and operations have, subsequently, been resumed Some panel factories have even extended the maintenance period for their production lines to cope with the problem of poor overall demand In terms of passive component MLCC, Taiwanese factories Yageo and Walsin Technology’s factory campuses are located in Kaohsiung’s Lujhu, Daliao, and Nanzih Districts Due to the slowdown in terminal market demand, production capacity utilization rate has been maintained at approximately 70% since July At the same time, Taiwan factory campuses have cancelled weekend overtime and returned to a normal shift schedule with only the sintering process in continuous operation The power supply in the Kaohsiung area was not affected by the earthquake and production line sintering furnaces remain in normal operation In addition, finished product inventory at these two suppliers' plants has exceeded 90 days Supply is sufficient, stable, and remains unaffected For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Driven by Digitalization and Sustainable Development, Global E-paper Market Estimated to Reach US$4.7 Billion or 50% YoY in 2022, Says TrendForce


Consumer Electronics

The global electronic paper (e-paper) industry is on the rise due to digitization trends and ESG sustainable development Based on e-paper’s power conservation and low carbon advantages, products such as e-paper tablets, electronic shelf labels, and electronic notebooks have quickly penetrated into the consumer and commercial markets According to TrendForce estimates, the size of the global e-paper market will be approximately US$465 billion in 2022, growing 481% YoY, and is expected to reach US$2034 billion by 2026 According to TrendForce, E Ink is currently the world's largest supplier of e-paper modules, electronic ink films, and other related materials, as well as finished products such as electronic shelf label (ESL) In addition to continuing improvement of its operational performance through new production lines, E Ink's biggest advantage comes from its alliances and partnerships with numerous manufacturers such as its partnerships with Qingyue Technology, Yes Optoelectronics, Jiangxi Xingtai Technology, and other e-paper module factories to develop and promote e-paper industrialization, technology sharing, and utilizing manufacturing and market advantages to expand the scope of e-paper application in the Chinese market In 2021, E Ink announced the expansion of 4 production lines in its old Hsinchu factory from the initial 2 material production lines to 6 material production lines The capacity of the last production line will come online in 1Q23 In addition, E Ink is currently planning to set up two new material production lines in its Hsinchu factory in 2024, with a production capacity equivalent to the total of the company’s three existing production lines E Ink also plans to build new factories in Guanyin (Taiwan) and Yangzhou (China) E-paper products such as e-paper tablets and ESL are primarily composed of three parts: display module, wireless chips, and battery The internal structure of an e-paper display (EPD) module consists of electronic ink coated onto a layer of plastic film which is then attached to a TFT panel This module needs to be controlled by a driver IC to form pixel graphics An e-paper TFT panel should be equipped with approximately 11 driver ICs As e-paper continues to trend towards large-size screens, the number of installed driver ICs will also increase, which will be beneficial for the performance of suppliers Fitipower, UltraChip, and Solomon Systech in the field of e-paper in the next five years This is especially true for ESL driver ICs which is a market equally divided among these three companies, in general In terms of Fitipower, the company’s main products are mostly concentrated in consumer electronic such as TVs and PCs, followed by ESL, e- paper, EPD, and TCON IC which account for 15% of overall revenue In terms of UltraChip, the visibility of its EPD IC orders has reached the end of 2022 and its STN driver IC orders are mostly in the fields of automotive, industrial instruments, and white goods The company has migrated part of its production capacity to a 12-inch plant According to TrendForce, approximately 75% of UltraChip's production capacity for electronic label driver ICs from 2020~2022 came from 12-inch wafer foundries and is currently actively promoting 12-inch 80nm and 70nm processes which are more cost-effective compared with its competitors who utilize 8-inch wafers foundries Solomon Systech's products include e-book readers and ESL The company’s main products are EPD driver ICs, OLED driver ICs, Mobile ICs, and large display ICs According to TrendForce, from the perspective of future trends in the e-paper market and the application of existing digital technologies, various e-paper products can be integrated into smart logistics, smart warehousing, smart retail and other fields to replace traditional paper Utilizing cloud platforms and IoT, shelf labels can be changed on the fly and inventory information can be obtained in real time, thereby reducing labor costs and traditional paper consumption The willingness of retail, logistics, and warehousing companies to adopt e-paper tablets, ESL, and other products will increase greatly, especially as digitalization and sustainable development continue to trend The development of e-paper products from black and white to colors has become a primary growth driver of e-paper market size For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Power Batteries Enter Period of Rapid Development with Global Installed Capacity Expected to Exceed 3TWh in 2030, Says TrendForce



Driven by the global net zero emission target, the transformation of road transportation towards electrification is accelerating and the global new energy vehicle (NEV) industry is in a period of rapid growth, driving a surge in power battery demand By 2024, the installed capacity of the global power battery market is expected to increase from a GWh-scale to TWh, exceeding 3TWh by 2030, of which China's installed capacity of power batteries is expected to account for approximately 45% of the world total Responding to imminent TWh-scale market demand in the electric vehicle (EV) field, mainstream global power battery manufacturers are accelerating the expansion of production capacity Coupled with the broad market space of electrochemical energy storage, the speed and scale of battery manufacturers’ capacity expansion far exceeds prior periods According to TrendForce statistics, the world's top ten power battery manufacturers including mainstream battery manufacturers such as CATL, LG Energy Solutions, BYD, CALB, Samsung SDI, and Panasonic have planned to reach 42TWh of power & energy storage battery capacity by 2025 Chinese manufacturers account for approximately 31TWh with a speed and scale of battery capacity expansion that leads the world It is worth noting that TrendForce indicated, power & energy storage batteries are booming due to the rapid growth of EV and electrochemical energy storage market demand, unbalancing the supply and demand of key upstream new energy battery raw materials, especially for key precursor resources such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel The growth rate of supply falls short of downstream demand, restricting the rapid expansion of the power battery industry chain to the expansion cycle of precursor mineral resources such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel, and resulting in greater power battery manufacturing costs in recent years As a result, more and more downstream battery manufacturers and even EV companies have been investing in mineral resources in recent years in order to accelerate the supply of materials TrendForce believes, not only does the advent of the power battery industry’s TWh intelligent manufacturing era pose a huge challenge for the supply growth rate of upstream resources such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel in the industry chain, it also tests whether equipment manufacturers can quickly respond to customers' demand for continuous expansion of production capacity and large-scale manufacturing requirements to improve equipment energy efficiency and reduce costs At present, it is difficult for lithium-ion battery raw materials pricing represented by lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide to decline significantly in the short term as prices are subject to the expansion cycle of mineral resources at the forefront of the power battery industry chain Before 2024, pressure to reduce battery cost will remain relatively high but the high price of lithium will also accelerate the large-scale application of sodium-ion battery technology in energy storage and low-speed EVs At the same time, upstream and downstream constituents of the industrial chain jointly increasing capital investment in upstream lithium, cobalt, and nickel resources will help to ease tight resource supply For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Green Energy Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
TrendForce Provides Data for Apple Conference


Consumer Electronics

On the eve of Apple's upcoming new product launch presentation, TrendForce, a global market research organization, is providing relevant reference data to aid in your reporting If you have any market questions regarding smart phones, smart watches, or other products please feel free to contact us, thank you! Data as follows: For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

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