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keyword：TrendForce，
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2023/09/21
Leveraging the superior conversion efficiency of N-type cells, the rise of cost-effective TOPCon cell technology in 2022 has seen N-type cell technology rapidly expand, inviting many solar industry participants into the competition Currently, PERC cell technology (for producing P-type cells) stands as the market's mainstay However, with the step-by-step realization of large-scale N-type cell capacities, there looms a risk that a substantial part of PERC cell technology capacities may be phased out within the forthcoming two to three years Concurrently, based on TrendForce’s analysis, as N-type cell capacities incrementally come online, there might be a sporadic shortage of high-quality silicon materials and wafers tailored for N-type cells This could further establish a noticeable price disparity between N-type silicon and wafers, and their P-type counterparts
Silicon supply remains abundant, but the price gap between P-type and N-type continues to widen
By 2023's end, it is projected that the total production capacity of polysilicon will reach 2072 million tons, an increase of 686% YoY The actual output of silicon materials is expected to be about 1483 million tons, sufficient to support over 600 GW of solar panel consumption (given a silicon consumption rate of 0245 tons/GW) This aligns with an annual installation demand of approximately 370-390 GW, indicating a clear oversupply of silicon As the market leans towards N-type cell technology, P-type silicon may face oversupply, causing its price to drop faster Conversely, robust demand and limited output for N-type silicon might create periodic shortages, stabilizing its price For silicon firms, N-type silicon offers better profitability
Surging demand for N-type cell slices drives silicon wafer makers to swiftly pivot
By the end of 2023, silicon wafer production capacity is projected to reach approximately 9216 GW, reflecting a 642% year-on-year growth Driven by the increasing demand for N-type cell wafers, silicon wafer manufacturers are rapidly transitioning to N-type production and ramping up their output With the inclusion of rectangular silicon wafers occupying a portion of this capacity, certain dimensions of P-type wafers might experience short-term supply shortages, potentially failing to meet immediate demands If the N-type cell rollout falls short of expectations, there remains a risk of N-type wafer oversupply Additionally, amid intensified industry competition and considering factors such as technological prowess, availability of high-purity quartz sand, and consistent supply of top-quality silicon wafers, leading companies like Longi and CMC are set to further elevate their competitive edge
N-cell capacity deployment sees delays; PERC tech likely to remain dominant this year
The projected total wafer capacity by 2023's end is estimated to reach around 1,172 GW, marking a 106% increase year-on-year The majority of this newly added capacity is attributed to N-type TOPCon cell technology By the end of the year, N-type wafer capacity is expected to reach 676 GW, accounting for 577% of the total However, TrendForce has observed some delays in the actual deployment of N-type cell capacity Given the existing price difference between N-P type wafers, PERC technology is anticipated to retain its leading position in the market this year, although the penetration rate of TOPCon cells will accelerate
China expected to hold 80–85% of global solar panel capacity in 2023
Estimations for 2023 indicate that the worldwide solar panel capacity could reach an astounding 1,034 GW, marking a 647% increase year-on-year Of this, approximately 3354 GW represents newly added capacity, predominantly driven by Chinese enterprises With Western countries and India progressively launching policies supporting local manufacturing, a growing number of Chinese firms are contemplating setting up production capacities overseas to sidestep trade barriers TrendForce reports leading Chinese solar panel manufacturers like Longi, JinkoSolar, JA Solar, and TrinaSolar have successively expanded their operations to areas including the US, Europe, and the Middle East Given the matured technology and cost-effective production of Chinese manufacturers and considering the nascent state of the solar supply chains overseas and the elevated costs of expansion, it remains challenging for enterprises from other regions to join the competition As such, TrendForce believes that the global competitive landscape for solar panels won't see any marked changes in the near term, maintaining China's dominant position with an anticipated 80-85% capacity share in 2023
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Green Energy Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/09/14
Australian mining company, Liontown Resources Ltd, has just announced it’s agreed to a buyout proposal of AUD 66 billion (USD 43 billion) by US lithium producer Albemarle Corp (ALB) TrendForce’s latest “2023 Global Li-Ion Battery Industry Chain Market Supply and Demand Report,” indicates that global lithium production in 2022 hit approximately 860,000 tons of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE) ALB, with its diverse lithium portfolio (spodumene, lithium salt, and tolling), accounted for over 180,000 tons of LCE Predictions for 2023 spotlight a global lithium production reaching 121 million tons LCE, and ALB is set to churn out 200,000 tons of that, holding firmly onto the lead with its 17% market share
TrendForce reports that ALB has strategically secured the planet’s most abundant, high-quality, and cost-efficient reserves of lithium salt lake and minerals across regions like Chile, Australia, and the US Moreover, when it comes to lithium refinement, ALB emerges as the global titan with the world’s greatest lithium salt production capacity As it stands, ALB’s annual production capacity for lithium hydroxide reaches 110,000 tons, accounting for 23% of the world’s entire production
With ambitions to acquire Australian miner Liontown, ALB set to command the world’s largest lithium resources
Liontown, a key supplier of Australia’s battery minerals, holds the reins to two major hard rock lithium deposits: Kathleen Valley and Buldania These areas boast lithium reserves of 156 million tons (54 million tons LCE) and 149 million tons (370,000 tons LCE), respectively As Kathleen Valley gears up for completion by the end of 2023, its inaugural production phase is set to roll out by 2Q24, targeting an annual yield of 500,000 tons of lithium spodumene concentrate And that’s just the start, with plans to elevate this figure to a whopping 700,000 tons annually On the other hand, the Buldania project is still in its nascent stage, focused on exploration and surveying
Should ALB’s acquisition of Liontown materialize, it would cement its control of global lithium resources and bolster its lithium salt production framework Yet, ALB isn’t the sole player in this vast industry Major lithium producers, including SQM, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Yahua Industrial, Chengxin Lithium, and Livent, are fervently ramping up their production capabilities in lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide
Lithium, the backbone of modern tech, is set to see its global demand skyrocket TrendForce’s insights reveal a bustling 2022 with around 40 lithium mining projects worldwide After 2025, the number of projects in production will increase to a staggering 100+ To safeguard their global dominance and sharpen their competitive edge, lithium chemical producers are strategically aligning with upstream lithium miners to secure lithium resources Case in point: Livent’s recent merger with Allkem in May of this year and ALB’s designs on Liontown This momentum signifies a trend toward a more consolidated global lithium resource landscape, with mergers and acquisitions becoming the norm in upcoming years
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Green Energy Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/09/14
1 Market Supply-Demand Forecast for Key Battery Metals
I Lithium (Li)
The Distribution of Global Lithium Resources
The Distribution of China Lithium Resources
Global Lithium Mine Production Trends
Global Lithium Mine Supply Pattern
Global Lithium Product Supply Pattern
Major Lithium Salt Suppliers: Production Capacity and Plans
Overview of Lithium Salt Production and Sales by Major Suppliers
Global Supply Forecast for Lithium Products from 2022 to 2027
Breakdown of Downstream Demand for Lithium Product
Forecast for Global Lithium Product Demand from 2022 to 2027
Analysis of Global Lithium Product Supply-Demand and Price Forecast from 2022 to 2027
II Cobalt (Co)
The Distribution of Global Cobalt Resources
Global Cobalt Mine Supply Pattern
Competition Landscape of Cobalt Mine Suppliers
Global Refined Cobalt Supply Pattern
Cobalt Production Capacity and Output of Major Suppliers
Global Supply Forecast for Cobalt Product from 2022 to 2027
Breakdown of Downstream Demand for Cobalt Product
Forecast for Global Cobalt Product Demand from 2022 to 2027
Analysis of Global Cobalt Product Supply-Demand and Price Forecast from 2022 to 2027
III Nickel (Ni)
The Distribution of Global Nickel Resources
Global Nickel Mine Supply Pattern
Global Nickel Product Supply Pattern
Competition Landscape of Nickel Suppliers
Nickel Product Production Volume of Major Suppliers
Nickel Sulfate Production Capacity and Planning of Major Suppliers
Global Supply Forecast for Nickel Products from 2022 to 2027
Breakdown of Downstream Demand for Nickel Product
Forecast for Global Nickel Product Demand from 2022 to 2027
Analysis of Global Nickel Product Supply-Demand and Price Forecast from 2022 to 2027
2 Market Supply-Demand Forecast for Key LiB Materials
Cathode Material and Precursor (CAM& PCAM)
Anode Material
Separator
Electrolyte
3 Market Supply-Demand Forecast for LiB
EV LiB
ESS LiB
Mobility & IT LiB
2023/09/07
Insufficient downstream demand has put a damper on both supply and demand in the EV battery market TrendForce reveals that the ASP of EV cells in China fell below CNY 06/Wh in August The average price drops of EV square ternary cells, LFP cells, and pouch ternary power cells reached 10%, with respective prices of CNY 065/Wh, CNY 059/Wh, and CNY 07/Wh—highlighting an uninspiring growth pattern in the EV battery market
Expectations for robust August demand in the energy storage market fizzled out, exacerbated by weakened overseas demand This slowdown forced battery manufacturers to pump the brakes on production, causing prices of energy storage cells to slide below CNY 06/Wh With a glut in China’s storage cell production capacity, a price war appears unavoidable, with a continued gradual price decline expected for the rest of the year
Consumer electronics also faced sluggish demand in August, forcing battery cell suppliers to focus on liquidating existing inventories TrendForce indicates that the ongoing drop in the prices of lithium salts and cobalt [II, III] oxide shows no signs of bottoming out Manufacturers, therefore, seem hesitant to stock up, opting for a “business as usual” approach to production A downward trajectory of LCO battery prices seems likely through September
Weak demand in both the power and energy storage sectors has put pressure on lithium salt prices, which spiraled down to an average of CNY 230,000/ton in August—a steep QoQ dive of 20% TrendForce warns that prices may plunge to less than CNY 200,000/ton, making buyers increasingly skittish about making purchases However, there’s a glimmer of hope: suppliers have initiated production cutbacks, providing a potential floor for lithium salt prices to rebound from as we approach September
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Green Energy Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/08/16
TrendForce announces a revised forecast for 2023 server shipments, protecting a downward shift of 594% YoY This downward revision is attributed to various economic challenges, including Meta’s diminished demand for 2H23 and a sluggish start in China’s internal tech demand in 1H23 (including state-owned cloud and East-West computing projects)
This shift highlights the larger economic pressures of inflation globally CSPs are reshaping their strategies, leaning more into AI investments Such a pivot, while innovative, has inadvertently led to a squeeze in the budget for traditional server shipments, affecting the tech market landscape
Notably, server shipments in the third quarter are expected to show slight growth compared to Q2 However, a subsequent decline is expected as the year edges into its final quarter
TrendForce identifies several recent indicators affecting server market momentum:
1 China’s stumbling blocks: The country’s state-owned enterprises have been putting for underwhelming bids Despite CSPs channeling efforts into AI, China’s server demand is anticipated to dip by 97% compared to its 2022 numbers
2 Global economic strains: Ongoing inflationary pressures and subsequent interest rate hikes have companies tightening their belts Enterprise server demand has notably waned, prompting industry giants like HPE and Dell to double down on subscription services and expand into the AI server niche
3 Supply chain hiccups: Current indications show supply chain inventory being gradually cleared, with a significant revival in purchasing dynamics expected only toward year-end
4 CSPs’ evolving focus: With budgets being redirected, a surge in demand for older server platforms is on the horizon for 2H23, reducing the scale of new platform rollouts and possibly limiting space for 2024 server shipments
Microsoft and Meta focus investment on AI, delaying adoption of new platforms
Furthermore, the spotlight on CSP’s reveals an interesting trend: Microsoft, post its AI investment spur, anticipates a 52% YoY increase in server acquisitions For budgetary reasons, Microsoft continues to delay the scale of its Gen 9 platform, instead increasing the scale of Gen 7 & 8 Simultaneously, Meta has slashed its server purchase plans by a striking 11-15% In a clear strategic shift, the latter is channeling more funds toward AI-centric equipment for 2H23
Current supply chain data suggests that Meta will focus more of its budget on AI-related equipment, which means the scale of general server orders will noticeably contract In contrast, AWS and Google have maintained steady expansion of their public-cloud businesses, with order adjustments remaining relatively stable in the 2H23 with an expected annual purchase volume growth of 4–5%
On the OEM front, Lenovo grapples with global inflationary backlash, seeing a dip in its core business, but its White-Box Cloud business has been less affected HPE continues to capitalize on the value brought by its GreenLake venture Specifically, the company’s annual revenue-run rate in Q2 grew by 35% YoY, with server shipments growing approximately 10% Dell, however, affected by an elevated baseline set in 2022 due to stockpiling, forecasts a 163% annual drop in shipments
