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keyword:TrendForce339 result(s)

Press Releases
Lingering Pandemic Vexes Economic Performance, 2022 Smartphone Production Volume Reduced to 1.333 Billion Units, Says TrendForce

2022/05/11

Consumer Electronics

According to TrendForce research, global smartphone production volume in 1Q22 was 310 million units, a QoQ decrease of 128%, primarily attributed to ongoing inventory adjustments in various distribution channels performed by a number of brands and the cyclical off-season, which led to relatively weak production performance in 1Q22 In 2Q22, a resurgence of the pandemic in the world's largest consumer market, China, exacerbated the drop in global 2Q22 mobile phone production to 309 million units However, compared to the same period in 2021, when a resurgent pandemic in India and Southeast Asia caused a sharp drop in total production, mobile phone production grew slightly by 07% TrendForce further indicates that the war between Russia and Ukraine continues to exacerbate the rising global inflation issue High inflation means that personal disposable income will shrink and will inevitably lead to prolonged replacement cycles and reduced purchasing budgets for individual devices Summarizing 2022, corrections in 1H22 were primarily due to the impact of China's lockdowns on the economy while corrections in 2H22 highlight the inflation crisis The total production forecast for the entire year will be revised down to 1333 billion units and there is still room for downward revisions in the future Due to China's economic headwinds, shipments fall again to 283 million, an annual decline of nearly 13% From a regional perspective, due to China’s insistence on maintaining a strict "dynamic zero-COVID" policy and the recent festering of the pandemic, economic performance is also facing greater downward pressure and the demand for smartphones has likewise cooled in the face of pandemic prevention measures Overall, the sales market share of China's smartphone market still ranks first in the world but, due to the impact of the pandemic, its market share has dropped from 242% last year to 211% this year while the corresponding total shipment forecast fell from 325 million units last year to 283 million units, an annual decline of approximately 129% Although the impact of the pandemic in the remainder of the region has been comparatively blunted, in the face of a rising inflation crisis, even the overpopulated Indian market will be unable to support substantial growth From the perspective of the 2022 national shipment share ranking forecast, the top three positions will be held by China, India, and the United States, accounting for a 211%, 131%, and 110% share, respectively For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Demand for Consumer Electronics Sluggish, NAND Flash Wafer Pricing Leads Downturn in May, Says TrendForce

2022/05/10

Semiconductors

According to TrendForce research, looking at NAND Flash wafers, the pricing of which more sensitively reflects the market, suppliers are increasingly motivated to cut prices in exchange for sales due to weak retail demand since March and a more conservative outlook for shipments of other end products The price of NAND Flash wafers is expected to begin falling in May and the supply of NAND Flash will gradually overtake demand in 2H22 The price decline of NAND Flash wafers in 3Q22 may reach 5~10% At the same time, TrendForce indicates that February’s contamination incident at Kioxia was expected to tighten the market in 2Q22 and 3Q22 However, as a consequence of rising inflation and the war between Russia and Ukraine, market demand for consumer products in the traditional peak season of the second half of the year is trending conservative and the prices of client SSD, eMMC, and UFS in 3Q22 will be flat compared to 2Q22, breaking from the original expectation that prices may rise In terms of enterprise SSDs, as demand for data centers remains strong, no significant correction in demand has yet been observed However, as the overall NAND Flash market gradually moves into oversupply, prices will only grow slightly by approximately 0~5% in 3Q22 Weakening demand in a period of unabated production expansion, NAND Flash may face oversupply in 2H22 From the perspective of demand, due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, rising inflation, and the pandemic in China, overall demand for consumer electronics is weak Demand for Chromebooks dwindled rapidly at the beginning of 2022 as exogenous demand from the pandemic disappeared In terms of conventional notebooks, the situation with commercial models and consumer models present a divergence Demand for commercial notebooks is benefiting from a return to the office occurring in many countries, while the opposite is true for consumer notebooks Therefore, overall demand for notebooks in 2022 will be lower compared to demand in 2021 In terms of smart phones, the production volume of Chinese brands has been suppressed due to China’s flailing against the pandemic and government lockdowns stemming from a continued insistence on a dynamic zero-COVID policy, resulting in continuous downward revisions of global smart phone production for 2022 In terms of supply, Samsung is focusing on substantial future growth in the enterprise SSD sector and continues to maintain its original capacity expansion plan, especially after its NAND production line was derailed due to the Xi'an lockdown at the end of last year In order to stabilize future plant operations, the capacity of its P2L fab in South Korea continues to increase Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) will also expand its wafer input plan in 2H22 Since the 128L yield rate has reached the company's goal and it had successfully broken into the tier 1 smartphone supply chain in 1H22, YMTC will also accelerate production at its second factory in Wuhan Therefore, TrendForce indicates, since an overall weakness in demand will linger in 2022 yet certain manufacturers will maintain a pattern of expanding production, the NAND Flash market will face oversupply in 2H22 As mentioned above, the prices of various products will be flat or experience reduced growth in 3Q22 For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Global Proportion of Installed Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery Capacity Expected to Reach 60% in 2024, Becoming Mainstream of Power Battery Market, Says TrendForce

2022/04/19

Energy

As a consequence of rising power battery raw material prices, a number of global new energy vehicle (NEV) brands including Tesla, BYD, NIO, Li Auto, and Volkswagen, have successively raised the sales prices of electric vehicles (EV) in 1Q22 TrendForce believes that power batteries are the core component that account for the greatest portion of an EV’s overall cost and reducing the cost of power batteries will be an important strategy for companies to remain competitive in the future As technology continues to innovate, lithium iron phosphate batteries are expected to account for more than 60% of installed capacity in the global power battery market by 2024 TrendForce indicates, from the perspective of the world's largest EV market, China, the power battery market reversed in 2021 and lithium iron phosphate batteries officially surpassed ternary batteries with 52% of installed capacity Lithium iron phosphate installed capacity continued to grow in 1Q22, rising to 58%, and demonstrating a growth rate far beyond that of ternary batteries However, from the perspective of the global EV market, thanks to the increase in the penetration rate of NEVs in Europe and the United States, ternary batteries still accounted for a market share of more than 60% in 2021, far exceeding that of lithium iron phosphate batteries, which captured a market share of approximately 32~ 36% Although the current gap between these two materials remains substantial, according to production capacity planning of global new energy battery cathode material manufacturers in the past two years, the scale and speed of lithium iron phosphate materials expansion will far exceed that of ternary materials According to TrendForce investigations, planned expansion projects announced by global cathode material manufacturers are currently concentrated in China and South Korea, with a nominal total planned production capacity of over 11 million tons, of which planned production capacity of lithium iron phosphate cathodes accounts for approximately 64% However, since planned production capacity exceeds market demand, there will be a certain shortfall between the industry’s total planned production capacity and actual future production capacity It remains to be seen to what level actual effective production capacity can rise in the future It is worth noting, as the price of core battery raw materials such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel has moved up clearly since 2H21 and the global power battery supply chain is plagued by uncertainty including the Russian-Ukrainian war and the global pandemic, there will be a short-term disparity between the growth rate of supply and demand and companies will focus more on reducing the cost of battery materials and supply chain security, two major issues related to future competitiveness As a result of this trend, TrendForce expects the cost-effective advantage of lithium iron phosphate batteries to become more prominent and this type of battery has an opportunity to become the mainstream of the terminal market in the next 2-3 years The global installed capacity ratio of lithium iron phosphate batteries to ternary batteries will also move from 3:7 to 6:4 in 2024 For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Green Energy Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Intensifying Consequences of Russian-Ukrainian War and Rising Inflation, TV, LCD Monitor, Notebook Shipments Face Correction Pressure, Says TrendForce

2022/04/01

Display

As the Russian-Ukrainian war directly affects Eastern Europe and, indeed, the entire European market, the supply of raw materials has destabilized and prices continued to soar, exacerbating inflation and pummeling the global economy In addition, lockdowns and work suspensions caused by the recent pandemic outbreak in China and the government’s insistence on a dynamic zero-COVID policy may lead to complex problems such as reductions in factory production efficiency and logistical delays TrendForce indicates, the uncertainty of current global political and economic circumstances have upset demand for three major display applications including TVs, LCD monitors, and notebooks, overshadowing 1H22 with pressure to correct expectations TV panel prices nearly bottomed out, driving demand in TV market remains challenging In terms of the TV market, due to the deleterious effect of the Russian-Ukrainian war on inflation and assuming consumer budgets remain unchanged, expenditures on non-essential items will fall, deferred demand for TV products In addition, due to issues in 2021 such as the shortage of cargo containers and port congestion, shipping costs spiked, indirectly inflating the production cost of TV sets Before the pandemic, shipping costs on a 65-inch TV was US$9 Last year, this jumped to US$50-US$100, scaling with TV size Even though current TV panel pricing has plunged by 30% to 40% compared to last year's peak, the fact that freight costs are not expected to improve in 2022 will inevitably affect TV brand promotions and scale of stocking during the peak season of overseas markets in 2H22 Therefore, TrendForce revises downward its TV shipment forecast for 2022, from the original 217 million units to 215 million units, reducing annual growth rate to 24% Stay-at-home economy effect vanishes, war worries dampen demand, dragging on demand for LCD monitors In terms of the LCD monitor market, the scale of the 2022 market will be smaller than that in 2021 as the overall market is no longer supported by strong demand from last year's stay-at-home economy In addition, relatively stable past demand originating from the European market ran headlong into the Russian-Ukrainian war at the end of February This, coupled with a subsequent butterfly effect that may lead to a downward revision in demand, as well as problems such as inflation and sustained high freight rates, make it difficult for brands to realize aggressive shipping goals Therefore, TrendForce preliminarily revises downward its LCD monitor shipment forecast for this year, from 144 million units to 142 million units, expanding annual negative growth rate to 23%, without ruling out a possibility of further downward revision Notebook demand under downward pressure from inflation and soaring component inventories In terms of the notebook computer market, TrendForce revises downward its original 238 million unit shipment forecast to 225 million units, a decrease of 85% YoY There are three primary factors to this downgrade First, Chromebooks benefited from the pandemic driving demand for distance education in 2021, accounting for 15% of total notebook shipments Chromebook shipments are forecast to decline by more than 50% in 2022 as a whole, disrupting total notebook shipments by approximately 7~10% Second, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused most notebook brands to suspend shipments to Russia Russia accounted for approximately 2% of global notebook shipments in 2021 and a suspension will also curb the demand for notebook shipments Third, every notebook brand has revised 2022 shipment forecasts downward by approximately 10-15% on average compared to the beginning of the year, indicating that inflation has clouded these brand’s future demand outlook The inventory of the entire supply chain including certain in-transit ODM/OEM components, continues to climb while the prices of some components continue to face downward pressure, resulting in intertwined problems and forcing notebook brands to prudently control purchasing momentum, which may further impact the upstream supply chain For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Pincered by Russian-Ukrainian War and Inflation, DRAM Price Drop Forecast to Continue in 2Q22 by 0-5%, Says TrendForce

2022/03/28

Semiconductors

According to TrendForce forecasts, average overall DRAM pricing in 2Q22 will drop by approximately 0~5%, due to marginally higher buyer and seller inventories coupled with the demand for products such as PCs, laptops, and smart phones being influenced in the short-term by the Russian-Ukrainian war and high inflation weakening consumer purchasing power At present, the only remaining source of demand is on the server side, so overall DRAM stocks will remain oversupplied in 2Q22   In terms of PC DRAM, PC OEMs are adopting a conservative stocking strategy for orders in 2Q22 due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, which may continue affecting orders during peak season in 2H22, and revising 2022 shipment targets downwards Additionally, the overall supply of bits is still growing, so the PC DRAM price slump in 2Q22 will further expand to 3~8% and may continue to deteriorate In terms of server DRAM, the current server DRAM inventory level held by cloud service providers and enterprise clients is roughly the same as the amount held in 1Q22, and this relatively high inventory level is not enough to support a price reversal The supply rate of server DRAM, of which there is still an oversupply, remains higher than 100% and this situation will continue into 2Q22 However, a price decline in 2Q22 is expected to converge at 0~5%, coinciding with the peak seasonal stocking surge In terms of Mobile DRAM, due to a number of factors such as high inflation, changes in the pandemic situation in various countries, and the Russian-Ukrainian war, it cannot be ruled out that the production volume of smartphones may continue to decline while smartphone brands will surely be more careful when planning production and material preparation On the supply side, technology migration in manufacturing has offset the shift of DRAM production to the server DRAM field beginning in 2H21, maintaining the level of the mobile DRAM bit supply For this reason, since the production targets of smartphone brands have fallen and average memory capacity of a single device has not significantly improved, oversupply is forecast to continue in 2Q22, with pricing set to decline approximately 0~5% In terms of Graphics DRAM, the demand side has been affected by weak virtual currency prices in recent months which has gradually started to assuage demand for graphics cards The supply side is facing supply constraints and a vendor shortage since Micron will withdraw from the GDDR6 8Gb supply in 2Q22 This will cause a temporary supply-demand imbalance for Graphics DRAM as capacity allocation of Korean manufacturers fail to immediately fill the above-mentioned shortfall Even if terminal demand slows down, considering GDDR6 8Gb remains mainstream in the current market, it will take time for manufacturers to convert specifications to 16Gb Pricing is forecast to increase by 0~5% in 2Q22 In terms of consumer DRAM, demand for DDR3 from specific products such as WiFi 6 and 5G base stations remains robust Quantity of DRAM supplied to the market varies from manufacturer to manufacturer Samsung and SK hynix have gradually reduced production of DDR3, while Taiwanese firm Nanya Tech has recently shifted production to DDR3, owing to DDR3’s higher gross profit margin Due to relatively stable demand and limited shipments from Korean manufacturers, the price of DDR3 will increase by 3~8% in 2Q22 with DDR4 maintaining a downward price trend For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

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