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2023/10/03
TrendForce reports that the global automotive market continues to blaze ahead in its vigorous expansion, with vehicle displays steering toward larger dimensions and tech-savvy cockpits In this technological race, many panel makers are ramping up their visibility in the automotive supply chain, dreaming big to clinch a Tier 1 supplier status Making its bold move in this dynamic landscape, AUO announced on October 2nd its complete acquisition of Germany’s Behr-Hella Thermocontrol GmbH (BHTC), epitomizing this forward-thinking trend
Trendforce believes AUO’s acquisition of BHTC is poised to yield rich dividends in the medium to long term for AUO’s ongoing transformation For starters, this deal serves as AUO’s golden ticket into BHTC’s client supply chain, amplifying and fortifying its presence in the automotive market Moreover, BHTC, already a Tier 1 auto supplier, specializes in in-car climate control and human-machine interfaces, delivering seamless system integration For AUO, traditionally a panel purist with limited system integration prowess, this union promises a quantum leap into the integration realm, bolstering their credibility with automakers
Concurrently, BHTC boasts a strategic factory presence in major global regions, effectively truncating the lengthy process of obtaining automotive factory certifications This not only accelerates collaborations with local automakers across these markets but also shifts the paradigm Traditionally, panel makers, as Tier 2 suppliers, found it challenging to directly gauge the aspirations of automakers However, with the resources of a Tier 1 supplier now in their arsenal, opportunities for direct engagements with automakers will multiply This is especially pivotal in understanding their vision for vehicle models and specifications 5–7 years down the line, aiding in proactive resource planning and preparation for the current phase
Since the advent of EVs, automotive electronic technology has gained significant attention, prompting traditional automakers to reevaluate and restructure their existing supply chains This shift became particularly pronounced during the Covid pandemic, when the industry grappled with severe shortages of automotive semiconductors Confronted with this challenge, traditional automakers have been increasingly keen on ensuring the stability of key technologies and components This dynamic has opened up fresh opportunities for non-traditional Tier 1 suppliers Riding this wave, display manufacturers are aggressively amplifying the significance of automotive display segments within vehicles and aspiring to transition into Tier 1 supplier roles Notable moves in this direction include joint ventures like Tianma partnering with HAXC, BOE’s merger with Varitronix, and CarUX’s spin-off from Innolux
TrendForce observed that the overall automotive display market reached a significant milestone of 200 million units in 2023 and is set to continue its growth trajectory While, in the short term, the ambition of display manufacturers to transition into Tier 1 suppliers may not dramatically impact their existing automotive display shipments, in the medium to long term, forging robust partnerships with automakers can not only secure steady orders but also boost revenues through the integration of smart automotive display modules
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email the Sales Department at DR_MI@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://wwwtrendforcecom/news/
2023/09/21
Leveraging the superior conversion efficiency of N-type cells, the rise of cost-effective TOPCon cell technology in 2022 has seen N-type cell technology rapidly expand, inviting many solar industry participants into the competition Currently, PERC cell technology (for producing P-type cells) stands as the market's mainstay However, with the step-by-step realization of large-scale N-type cell capacities, there looms a risk that a substantial part of PERC cell technology capacities may be phased out within the forthcoming two to three years Concurrently, based on TrendForce’s analysis, as N-type cell capacities incrementally come online, there might be a sporadic shortage of high-quality silicon materials and wafers tailored for N-type cells This could further establish a noticeable price disparity between N-type silicon and wafers, and their P-type counterparts
Silicon supply remains abundant, but the price gap between P-type and N-type continues to widen
By 2023's end, it is projected that the total production capacity of polysilicon will reach 2072 million tons, an increase of 686% YoY The actual output of silicon materials is expected to be about 1483 million tons, sufficient to support over 600 GW of solar panel consumption (given a silicon consumption rate of 0245 tons/GW) This aligns with an annual installation demand of approximately 370-390 GW, indicating a clear oversupply of silicon As the market leans towards N-type cell technology, P-type silicon may face oversupply, causing its price to drop faster Conversely, robust demand and limited output for N-type silicon might create periodic shortages, stabilizing its price For silicon firms, N-type silicon offers better profitability
Surging demand for N-type cell slices drives silicon wafer makers to swiftly pivot
By the end of 2023, silicon wafer production capacity is projected to reach approximately 9216 GW, reflecting a 642% year-on-year growth Driven by the increasing demand for N-type cell wafers, silicon wafer manufacturers are rapidly transitioning to N-type production and ramping up their output With the inclusion of rectangular silicon wafers occupying a portion of this capacity, certain dimensions of P-type wafers might experience short-term supply shortages, potentially failing to meet immediate demands If the N-type cell rollout falls short of expectations, there remains a risk of N-type wafer oversupply Additionally, amid intensified industry competition and considering factors such as technological prowess, availability of high-purity quartz sand, and consistent supply of top-quality silicon wafers, leading companies like Longi and CMC are set to further elevate their competitive edge
N-cell capacity deployment sees delays; PERC tech likely to remain dominant this year
The projected total cell capacity by 2023's end is estimated to reach around 1,172 GW, marking a 106% increase year-on-year The majority of this newly added capacity is attributed to N-type TOPCon cell technology By the end of the year, N-type wafer capacity is expected to reach 676 GW, accounting for 577% of the total However, TrendForce has observed some delays in the actual deployment of N-type cell capacity Given the existing price difference between N-P type wafers, PERC technology is anticipated to retain its leading position in the market this year, although the penetration rate of TOPCon cells will accelerate
China expected to hold 80–85% of global solar panel capacity in 2023
Estimations for 2023 indicate that the worldwide solar panel capacity could reach an astounding 1,034 GW, marking a 647% increase year-on-year Of this, approximately 3354 GW represents newly added capacity, predominantly driven by Chinese enterprises With Western countries and India progressively launching policies supporting local manufacturing, a growing number of Chinese firms are contemplating setting up production capacities overseas to sidestep trade barriers TrendForce reports leading Chinese solar panel manufacturers like Longi, JinkoSolar, JA Solar, and TrinaSolar have successively expanded their operations to areas including the US, Europe, and the Middle East Given the matured technology and cost-effective production of Chinese manufacturers and considering the nascent state of the solar supply chains overseas and the elevated costs of expansion, it remains challenging for enterprises from other regions to join the competition As such, TrendForce believes that the global competitive landscape for solar panels won't see any marked changes in the near term, maintaining China's dominant position with an anticipated 80-85% capacity share in 2023
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Green Energy Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/09/14
Australian mining company, Liontown Resources Ltd, has just announced it’s agreed to a buyout proposal of AUD 66 billion (USD 43 billion) by US lithium producer Albemarle Corp (ALB) TrendForce’s latest “2023 Global Li-Ion Battery Industry Chain Market Supply and Demand Report,” indicates that global lithium production in 2022 hit approximately 860,000 tons of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE) ALB, with its diverse lithium portfolio (spodumene, lithium salt, and tolling), accounted for over 180,000 tons of LCE Predictions for 2023 spotlight a global lithium production reaching 121 million tons LCE, and ALB is set to churn out 200,000 tons of that, holding firmly onto the lead with its 17% market share
TrendForce reports that ALB has strategically secured the planet’s most abundant, high-quality, and cost-efficient reserves of lithium salt lake and minerals across regions like Chile, Australia, and the US Moreover, when it comes to lithium refinement, ALB emerges as the global titan with the world’s greatest lithium salt production capacity As it stands, ALB’s annual production capacity for lithium hydroxide reaches 110,000 tons, accounting for 23% of the world’s entire production
With ambitions to acquire Australian miner Liontown, ALB set to command the world’s largest lithium resources
Liontown, a key supplier of Australia’s battery minerals, holds the reins to two major hard rock lithium deposits: Kathleen Valley and Buldania These areas boast lithium reserves of 156 million tons (54 million tons LCE) and 149 million tons (370,000 tons LCE), respectively As Kathleen Valley gears up for completion by the end of 2023, its inaugural production phase is set to roll out by 2Q24, targeting an annual yield of 500,000 tons of lithium spodumene concentrate And that’s just the start, with plans to elevate this figure to a whopping 700,000 tons annually On the other hand, the Buldania project is still in its nascent stage, focused on exploration and surveying
Should ALB’s acquisition of Liontown materialize, it would cement its control of global lithium resources and bolster its lithium salt production framework Yet, ALB isn’t the sole player in this vast industry Major lithium producers, including SQM, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Yahua Industrial, Chengxin Lithium, and Livent, are fervently ramping up their production capabilities in lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide
Lithium, the backbone of modern tech, is set to see its global demand skyrocket TrendForce’s insights reveal a bustling 2022 with around 40 lithium mining projects worldwide After 2025, the number of projects in production will increase to a staggering 100+ To safeguard their global dominance and sharpen their competitive edge, lithium chemical producers are strategically aligning with upstream lithium miners to secure lithium resources Case in point: Livent’s recent merger with Allkem in May of this year and ALB’s designs on Liontown This momentum signifies a trend toward a more consolidated global lithium resource landscape, with mergers and acquisitions becoming the norm in upcoming years
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Green Energy Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/09/14
1 Market Supply-Demand Forecast for Key Battery Metals
I Lithium (Li)
The Distribution of Global Lithium Resources
The Distribution of China Lithium Resources
Global Lithium Mine Production Trends
Global Lithium Mine Supply Pattern
Global Lithium Product Supply Pattern
Major Lithium Salt Suppliers: Production Capacity and Plans
Overview of Lithium Salt Production and Sales by Major Suppliers
Global Supply Forecast for Lithium Products from 2022 to 2027
Breakdown of Downstream Demand for Lithium Product
Forecast for Global Lithium Product Demand from 2022 to 2027
Analysis of Global Lithium Product Supply-Demand and Price Forecast from 2022 to 2027
II Cobalt (Co)
The Distribution of Global Cobalt Resources
Global Cobalt Mine Supply Pattern
Competition Landscape of Cobalt Mine Suppliers
Global Refined Cobalt Supply Pattern
Cobalt Production Capacity and Output of Major Suppliers
Global Supply Forecast for Cobalt Product from 2022 to 2027
Breakdown of Downstream Demand for Cobalt Product
Forecast for Global Cobalt Product Demand from 2022 to 2027
Analysis of Global Cobalt Product Supply-Demand and Price Forecast from 2022 to 2027
III Nickel (Ni)
The Distribution of Global Nickel Resources
Global Nickel Mine Supply Pattern
Global Nickel Product Supply Pattern
Competition Landscape of Nickel Suppliers
Nickel Product Production Volume of Major Suppliers
Nickel Sulfate Production Capacity and Planning of Major Suppliers
Global Supply Forecast for Nickel Products from 2022 to 2027
Breakdown of Downstream Demand for Nickel Product
Forecast for Global Nickel Product Demand from 2022 to 2027
Analysis of Global Nickel Product Supply-Demand and Price Forecast from 2022 to 2027
2 Market Supply-Demand Forecast for Key LiB Materials
Cathode Material and Precursor (CAM& PCAM)
Anode Material
Separator
Electrolyte
3 Market Supply-Demand Forecast for LiB
EV LiB
ESS LiB
Mobility & IT LiB
2023/09/07
Insufficient downstream demand has put a damper on both supply and demand in the EV battery market TrendForce reveals that the ASP of EV cells in China fell below CNY 06/Wh in August The average price drops of EV square ternary cells, LFP cells, and pouch ternary power cells reached 10%, with respective prices of CNY 065/Wh, CNY 059/Wh, and CNY 07/Wh—highlighting an uninspiring growth pattern in the EV battery market
Expectations for robust August demand in the energy storage market fizzled out, exacerbated by weakened overseas demand This slowdown forced battery manufacturers to pump the brakes on production, causing prices of energy storage cells to slide below CNY 06/Wh With a glut in China’s storage cell production capacity, a price war appears unavoidable, with a continued gradual price decline expected for the rest of the year
Consumer electronics also faced sluggish demand in August, forcing battery cell suppliers to focus on liquidating existing inventories TrendForce indicates that the ongoing drop in the prices of lithium salts and cobalt [II, III] oxide shows no signs of bottoming out Manufacturers, therefore, seem hesitant to stock up, opting for a “business as usual” approach to production A downward trajectory of LCO battery prices seems likely through September
Weak demand in both the power and energy storage sectors has put pressure on lithium salt prices, which spiraled down to an average of CNY 230,000/ton in August—a steep QoQ dive of 20% TrendForce warns that prices may plunge to less than CNY 200,000/ton, making buyers increasingly skittish about making purchases However, there’s a glimmer of hope: suppliers have initiated production cutbacks, providing a potential floor for lithium salt prices to rebound from as we approach September
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Green Energy Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
