TrendForce projects a strong 13–18% increase in Q2 NAND Flash contract prices, with enterprise SSDs expected to rise highest. Despite Kioxia and WDC boosting their production capacity utilization rates from Q1 this year, other suppliers have kept their production strategies conservative.
Additionally, significant price increases by suppliers since 4Q23 are expected to further diminish the momentum for inventory restocking. As a result, DRAM contract prices for the second quarter are projected to see a modest increase of 3–8%, says TrendForce.
Leveraging this foundation, NVIDIA is set to launch AI chips like the B100, B200, and GB200, prepping for a surge in advanced AI applications. With NVIDIA's quick iteration cycle, these improvements in cost-efficiency and energy consumption mean these products could dominate the market by 2025 after their expected late 2024 release.
TrendForce’s latest market report on EV installers reveals that their global installation volume reached 7.14 million units in 4Q23—a roughly 12% increase from 6.39 million units in 3Q23. This growth is primarily due to the increase in EV sales in the last quarter compared to the third quarter. Among these, the inverter market’s main driving force comes from BEVs.
TrendForce reports that anticipation of NAND Flash price hikes into Q2 has motivated certain suppliers to minimize losses and lower costs in hopes of returning to profitability this year. Kioxia and WD led the charge from March, boosting their capacity utilization rates to nearly 90%—a move not widely adopted by their competitors.
TrendForce reports that significant capital investments have occurred in the memory sector due to the high ASP and profitability of HBM. Senior Vice President Avril Wu notes that by the end of 2024, the DRAM industry is expected to allocate approximately 250K/m (14%) of total capacity to producing HBM TSV, with an estimated annual supply bit growth of around 260%. Additionally, HBM’s revenue share within the DRAM industry—around 8.4% in 2023—is projected to increase to 20.1% by the end of 2024.
TrendForce’s projections foresee that the US satellite direct-to-device (D2D) market is expected to undergo significant growth, expanding from $430 million in 2023 to $6.5 billion by 2027 at a CAGR of 36%. This growth is driven by increasing subscriptions to satellite D2D services, potentially enabling telecom operators to expand beyond traditional mobile communication services into satellite communications.
TrendForce highlights the current landscape of the HBM market, which as of early 2024, is primarily focused on HBM3. NVIDIA’s upcoming B100 or H200 models will incorporate advanced HBM3e, signaling the next step in memory technology. The challenge, however, is the supply bottleneck caused by both CoWoS packaging constraints and the inherently long production cycle of HBM—extending the timeline from wafer initiation to the final product beyond two quarters.
The latest TrendForce report reveals a notable 7.9% jump in 4Q23 revenue for the world’s top ten semiconductor foundries, reaching $30.49 billion. This growth is primarily driven by sustained demand for smartphone components, such as mid and low-end smartphone APs and peripheral PMICs.