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2015/04/07
On March 12, a Chinese consortium led by Summitview Capital announced its acquisition of Integrated Silicon Solution (ISSI), a fabless IC company listed on the NASDAQ, for 640 million USD And with this acquisition, the Chinese government has officially declared its entry into the semiconductor manufacturing sector The takeover of American-based ISSI is only the first step in the establishment of China’s domestic DRAM industry Based on the findings of DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, China consumed around 102 billion USD of DRAM in 2014, representing around 20% of the worldwide turnover This huge internal demand is sufficient to support the development of a locally based DRAM industry
The newest reporting indicates that there are six local governments currently vying for central government’s approval to bring DRAM fabs to their areas Only one candidate will be chosen and once the fabs are built, China will start to put together a vertically integrated supply chain The consolidated companies in the upstream sector will be able to develop its own IPs and form strong links to the downstream sector In addition to the clustering effect that will prevent DRAM fabs from leaving the country, the scale of China’s economy and its equally vast market will ensure sustained growth for the entire industry
Beijing, Shanghai, Hefei, Wuhan, and two other cities compete to be the center of China’s semiconductor industry
Presently, there are six cities competing for the DRAM fabs, and prominent ones are Shanghai, Beijing, Hefei, and Wuhan Beijing is an important market for China’s IC design, and it is where many returning graduates from foreign universities have landed The city moreover has significant advantage in experts and expertise since it is the home of Tsinghua University, Institute of Microelectronics of Chinese Academy of Sciences (IMECAS), and Beijing Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) Thus, Beijing is considered the main trading hub of China’s consumer electronics
Shanghai, on the other hand, has the SMIC headquarter, and SMIC as a major semiconductor foundry is at the top of the IC industry chain in China As for Hefei, it has in recent years gathered a group of talents in IC design with the help from the former CEO of Elpida Memory, Yukio Sakamoto On the whole, all candidate cities have the potentials becoming the home of DRAM fabs Their chances of success may be finally determined by the political influences and connections that local officials have with the central government
China’s semiconductor industry will affect the global DRAM market after three years at the earliest
The Chinese government is aware that despite the right conditions and preparations (capital, market, and government support), the country’s nascent DRAM industry still lacks industry-related professionals and advanced manufacturing technologies To address this issue, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2014 announced the establishment of the National IC Industry Investment Fund, which is worth 120 billion RMB This fund lets the country gain a foothold in the DRAM sector using the quickest method, which is through acquisitions In addition to the takeover of ISSI, Chinese investors have also set their sights on Taiwanese IC companies, which are known their strong R&D capabilities and global connections Currently, the island’s regulations prohibit Mainland-based investors from holding more than a 30% stake in a listed local company, either directly or indirectly Consequently, the Chinese may have to target American IC design houses or unlisted Taiwanese counterparts in order to increase China’s talent pool
Although the influence of China’s DRAM industry is becoming noticeable worldwide, DRAMeXchange expects the real effects will come later It will take at least two years to build the fabrication plants and have them do pilot runs As Chinese DRAM makers set up their manufacturing processes, they are likely to produce PC DRAM and specialty DRAM as their first line of products because they are technologically easier to make Mobile DRAM has experienced rapid growths in recent years However, it will take at least five to ten years before the Chinese DRAM makers can catch up with other first-tier manufacturers in terms of mobile DRAM production capacity
2015/03/16
A consortium of Chinese investors led by Summitview Capital announced on March 12 that they have acquired Integrated Silicon Solution (ISSI), a fabless semiconductor company listed on the NASDAQ, for 640 million USD According to the findings of DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, the consortium of investors include eTown MemTek, Hua Capital, Huaqing Jiye Investment Management, and Venture Capital Guiding Fund of Shanghai The guiding fund was created with the support of the government, while Hua Capital manages Beijing IC Industry Development Fund This deal, which reflects cooperation between major state-owned funds in Shanghai and Bejing, follows the Chinese government’s declaration to invest 120 billion RMB in the semiconductor industry last year DRAMeXchange indicates that the Chinese government is acting on its words and putting together the necessary technological capacities to create a complete DRAM industry
On the whole, the Chinese government has altered their approaches to the advancement of the country’s electronics sector Currently, China’s semiconductor imports (such as CPU, AP, DRAM, and Flash) actually exceed its petroleum imports, so substitution will take on greater significance in future policies In cell phone chip manufacturing, Chinese semiconductor company Tsinghua Unigroup is able to marshal the resources of its acquisitions, like Spreadtrum and RDA, and partners like Intel to achieve effective results With CPU, DRAM, and Flash accounting for a large portion of the import spending, the Chinese government is entering negotiations with DRAM makers and other semiconductor companies in Taiwan The state aims to radically improve the DRAM trade balance by taking the following initiatives: the integration of technology, HR, and advantages of international standards; and the combination of China’s market scale and Taiwan’s production technologies
China consumed 102 billion US dollars of DRAM in 2014, representing 20% of the global DRAM turnover The turnover for mobile DRAM in the same year reached 56 billion US dollars and took up 55% of DRAM turnover in China, whereas PC DRAM and server DRAM respectively accounted for 19% and 11% Also in 2014, notebook shipments in China reached 25 million units and desktop shipments totaled 32 million units, respectively representing 14% and 25% of the global market shares These figures show China’s DRAM consumer market has strong growth potential The findings of DRAMeXchange also indicate that the scale of China’s DRAM market is now the equivalent of two fabs capable of 100K productions per month The DRAM demands from consumer electronics will only grow bigger in the future with potential output value surpassing tens of billions of US dollars
Based in the United States, ISSI designs and markets DDR3, DDR2, and SDRAM The manufacturing of its products are outsourced to foundries such as TSMC and UMC Its revenue for 2014 was 320 million USD This merger is just the first step for the Chinese DRAM industry The next step for the central government will be choosing a province for setting up DRAM fabrication plants Presently there are five provinces competing for these fabs Then, the state will support consolidations in upstream supply chain in order for Chinese IC companies to develop their own technologies Xi’an Sinochip Semiconductors, for example, is an IC design house that owns IP and has strong linkages with the downstream sector Thus, it has a complete, vertically-integrated supply chain In sum, creating a clustering effect in the ecosystem of the semiconductor industry will keep fabs in China and ensure sustainable growth
2015/03/05
Chai Jing’s documentary, “Under the Dome” has stirred up Chinese society’s deep concern about smog and other pollution problems that are widespread in the country While China annual GDP on average has grown by about 10% over the last 20 years, the amount of GDP spent on addressing environmental issues during the same period has seen less than 1% growth This indicates that economic development still takes precedence over environmental protection in the mindset of the Chinese government By bringing together the results of their green energy research and observations on China’s long-term trends, analysts from both the green energy research division of TrendForce and Topology Research Institute have together created an outline of actions that China is going take in the near future TrendForce forecasts that the Chinese government will aggressively pursue the following tasks, which involve all administration levels from the local to the central government We can look forward to these upcoming policy actions leading to exciting prospects in the green industries
1 The Chinese government will likely increase the ratios of electricity generation by hydro, wind, and solar energy in order to reduce the reliance on coal and oil
2 The state is going to also become very active in the development of NEVs(New Energy Vehicles) since they are instrumental in reducing CO₂ emissions from automobiles
3 Public discourses on the environment will most likely to expand in scope and lead to actions in wastewater management and further reduction of industrial pollutions
The promotion of clean energies and LED lighting will reduce fossil fuel demands
To reduce emissions from burning fossil fuels and produce more clean power, China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) attempts to increase the ratios of hydro, wind and solar power generation to the total electricity production The administration’s goal is to install 100GW of PV systems and 200GW of wind systems by 2020 According to TrendForce, the average CO₂ emission factor for China’s regional grids is 07kg/kWh If China did achieve the NEA’s solar energy goal and the PV systems could generate 1,200 hours of electricity on average per year nationwide, TrendForce estimates that by 2020 China’s PV power generation would reach 120 billion kWh, which equals to a reduction of CO₂ emissions in the amount of 84 million tons
It is expected that the reduction of standard coal consumption will lead to corresponding decrease in air pollution level and increase use of zero-carbon, renewable energies in place of fossil fuels In recent years, China has taken many steps to build a concrete renewable energy policy framework and was the largest PV energy market worldwide in 2014 The NEA’s PV installation target for 2015 is 15GW, which means that China will account for about 27% of the world’s solar energy demand Every part of the PV industry will benefit greatly from the demand-driven opportunities, from silicon wafers to PV systems
On the side of energy conservation, 17% to 20% of electricity is used for lighting in China In 2014, China consumed 5523 trillion kWh of electricity, of which 11 trillion kWh was for lighting It is expected that once high-efficiency LED became common in China, the country will see its lighting power consumption reduced by half or more This further translates to reduction of coal-use by 300 million tons Presently, LED has yet to penetrate deeply in China’s market, so it still has a lot to contribute in the fight against smog
Active development in the NEVs sector will reduce CO₂ emissions from cars
Air pollutions in China are mainly made of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and dust particles (or fine soot) The primary source of these pollutants is industrial emissions, which account for 903% of the country’s sulfur dioxide emissions, 709% of nitrogen oxide, and 861% of dust particles Mobile vehicle emissions are the second largest source of nitrogen oxide, taking up 274% of its total emissions
In response to this huge environmental challenge, China’s State Council issued “Action Plan for Air Pollution Prevention and Control” in 2013 This plan entails ten specific measures to progressively reduce multi-pollutant emissions and improve the country’s air quality in the next five years or longer Mobile vehicles will be included in environmental regulatory scheme as a mobile source of emissions The state also requires local authorities to reorganize their urban planning to include an expanded intelligence transportation system and other specific emission-reducing infrastructures or policies
According to Topology’s observations, the strong and concerted policy efforts to introduce new energy vehicles in China have led to strong sales with 74,800 NEVs units sold in 2014 Compared with the previous year, the NEVs sales growth multiplied 32 times China is now the third largest NEVs market in the world, following the US as and Europe
Despite these impressive achievements, the number of NEVs possession in China from 2009 to 2014 amounted to 136,000 units, and this number is far short of the policy target of 500,000 units by 2015 The current predicament suggests that at least 364,000 more of them have to be on the road this year in order to meet the policy mandate This figure represents almost the entire NEVs market worldwide in 2014, thus the potential for growth is enormous
Environmental discourses will also drive developments in wastewater solutions and further actions to reduce industrial pollutions
Managing water pollutions is just as urgent for the Chinese government as reducing air contamination The main sources of water pollutions in China are from industrial effluents, municipal wastewater discharges, and centralized waste-treatment facilities Among them, the municipal source accounts for much of the water pollution’s growth Studies have shown that China’s total volume of discharged wastewater reached 6954 billion tons in 2013, a 15% growth compared with the prior year Additionally, municipal wastewater made up of 698% of the total volume in 2013 with 4851 billion tons The amount of industrial effluents was 2098 billion tons, or 302%
Topology’s observations show the pollutions of surface water, groundwater, and coastal water in China have reached a critical stage, and the state is still very far from establishing a comprehensive wastewater solution policy, which was a defined goal in the 12th Five-Year Plan The current leadership in China’s national government have reduced the importance of GDP growth in their performance evaluation of local authorities while giving more weight to regional wastewater solution initiatives In terms of controlling water pollutions, a great developmental and market gap exist between the major cities and the rest of the country made up of county-level cities, towns, and villages As local authorities focus more on environmental issues, this vast part of the market will be gradually opened and drive relevant investments Like controlling air pollutions, the proposed business opportunities in the area of wastewater solution are enormous
2015/02/09
According to TrendForce, the shipments of Chinese brand smartphones reached a new high in 2014 with a total shipment of 453 million units, which translated to an annual growth of 548% and accounted for nearly 40% of the worldwide shipments The formidable rise of Chinese brands was an important development of the year AVANTI, a Chinese consumer research division of TrendForce, recently released a smartphone market survey that shows domestic brands in China are becoming more appealing and are in a position to catch up with top brands like Samsung and Apple
Based on AVANTI’s findings, in 2014 Samsung managed to retain its leading position among the Chinese consumers in terms of brand image, visibility, appeal, and user percentage, but there were noticeable slides from the third to fourth quarter Samsung’s brand appeal had already been surpassed by Apple’s iPhone in the first quarter in 2014 and stayed in the second place since then On the other hand, Apple’s user percentage growth became more significant in the fourth quarter when iPhone6/6 Plus was launched, putting the pressure on the declining Samsung
Compared with its Chinese competitors, iPhone has greater brand loyalty than them, but the growth of its brand loyalty in 2014 was far smaller than the Chinese brands and showed signs of slowdown In 2014, Chinese brands Xiaomi and Huawei experienced steady growths in both image and visibility in the domestic market Xiaomi even managed to best Samsung in the brand loyalty rankings for the fourth quarter, taking the second place
Chinese brands will start to pick up in their domestic market in 2Q15, but expect diminished growths throughout the year
TrendForce’s smartphone analyst Henry Chung said with domestic telecom companies cutting subsidies since the second half of 2014 and with the influence of 3G/4G device upgrade cycle, Chinese brands are looking at rising inventory level and weaker sales in China market The current inventory level adjustment process in the entire supply chain is expected to last through the first quarter of 2015 If the excess inventory is effectively cleared, steady quarterly growth will resume in the second quarter at the earliest TrendForce projects that Chinese brand smartphone shipments worldwide are estimated to reach 531 million units with an annual growth of 172% in 2015 While the projected growth pales in comparison with the above 50% growth in 2014, Chinese brands are likely to represent six of the 2015 top ten smartphone makers in terms of shipments
2015/01/22
TrendForce Corp, a global market intelligence firm, announced today (January 22) that it has become the majority shareholder of Topology Research Institute, with all the controlling stakeholder’s operating rights entailed Kevin Lin, the CEO of TrendForce, will also hold the title of Chairman of Topology Topology’s operations, brand, and managing staff will be under the same business model after the merger
“Market intelligence and intellectual property is a professional field with a bright future in an age dominated by high tech industries, Big Data, and the Internet,” said, Lin, Chairman of Topology and CEO of TrendForce Based in Taiwan, TrendForce has established itself as a recognized brand name endorsed and invested by technology giants and international investment banks “Our ability to have in-depth access to the global high tech supply chain and exert influences is the result of more than a decade of hard work,” Lin continued, “and I believe both firms will supplement and strengthen each other with this merger” With Topology joining TrendForce, TrendForce is now Taiwan’s biggest private research organization that specializes technology industries as well as one of the leading research firms in Asia TrendForce’s domestic and international clients in the near future can expect even more comprehensive industry analysis and consultation services
Founded in 2000, TrendForce has built up its position as the global authority of research and analysis on the DRAM industry starting with DRAMeXchange The company has further expanded its research fields to include Flash, LCD, LED, smartphones, solar energy, and consumer behaviors
TrendForce’s primary clients are internationally renowned brand names and major enterprises in China, including the triumvirate of the tech world – Apple, Google and Facebook Other global brand names that TrendForce has served include Intel, Microsoft, Samsung, Sony, Huawei, Lenovo, and many more Global investment firms, such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Mitsubishi UFJ and Credit Suisse, have also continuously retained TrendForce’s services The market intelligence generated by TrendForce are thus endorsed and acquired by these actors of the international market
Topology Research Institute was established in 1996 and has been primarily providing studies on the technology industries in Taiwan and China With Topology becoming part TrendForce, a staff of 250 analysts and managing personnel will be diligently covering technology, policy, and supply chain in the Greater China Region and the rest of the world In addition to assisting Taiwanese firms setting up in China and devising global strategies, TrendForce-Topology Alliance will build on TrendForce’s existing overseas client base and create a key investment bridge to the Greater China Region for foreign firms Both sides of the merger will be able to take advantage of each other’s talents and clientele while creating the market intelligence that the technology industries demand: comprehensive statistical reports, analyses, databases, and etc The mission of TrendForce and Topology is to become the knowledge gateway for companies expanding globally or in China
About Kevin Lin, founder and CEO of TrendForce Corp and Chairman of Topology Research Institute
Mr Lin received his BA in Computer Science and MBA at National Taiwan University (NTU) Lin is a pioneer in Taiwan’s e-commerce sector, beginning with his founding of NeoCom Technology in 1999 As the founder and CEO, Lin made NeoCom Technology the largest online B2C and C2C platform in Taiwan with uBidcomtw, a successful shopping and auction website In 2002, NeoCom Technology was acquired by eBay, which was the largest e-commerce company in the United States at the time
In 2000, Lin founded DRAMeXchange, a B2B e-commerce unit, and TrendForce, which under his supervision has become a globally recognized name in technology market research
About TrendForce
TrendForce is a research institution that provides in-depth market and industry consultation service as well as being a media platform for industry-related news Every year, TrendForce hosts several international seminars in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Taipei Experts and leaders from high tech and emerging industries are gathered and invited to share their most recent findings in industry developments and market trends These annual conferences also provide a networking platform for high tech professionals looking to learn from each other and expand their businesses
TrendForce consists of five major research divisions: DRAMeXchange, WitsView, LEDinside, EnergyTrend and AVANTI Areas covered include DRAM, Flash, PC, smartphone, notebook, tablet, LCD TV, display panel, touchscreen technology, monitor-related industries, LED, lighting, solar energy, electric cars, lithium batteries, green energy industries, and online consumer behavior patterns in China TrendForce’s team has some of the most knowledgeable specialists in these fields, and their effective and multifaceted research methods combine the newest trends in technological developments with insightful information on vendors and buyers TrendForce also investigates targeted industries totally and at a global level, thus it is able to provide its clients the most comprehensive strategic business analyses
About Topology
Topology Technology was established in March 1996 and was one of the earliest professional providers of industry intelligence in Taiwan
In 2002, Topology was renamed Topology Research Institute (TRI) and expanded its range of services with a focus on structural trends in high tech industries within the Greater China Region Its five research divisions are semiconductor, photovoltaic technology, communication technology, IA, and regional markets Due to the growing influence of China’s IT sector on the rest of the word in the recent years, Topology established a subsidiary in Shanghai in 2006 as to be closer to its Chinese clientele The Shanghai office also provides international clients firsthand and in-depth analyses of China’s IT sector
Topology commands accurate information on industry and market trends across Europe, the United States, Japan, Korea, China, and Taiwan Its spot and dynamic analyses are specially tailored to the needs of the industries This advantage allows Topology to become the key instrument for enterprises seeking to improve their performances and expand
