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2014/07/24
The global smartphone market is slowing down and entering a mature period where growth will be limited Mature markets such as Europe and North America in particular are expected to see smartphone growth in the single digits Amid an increasingly competitive smartphone market in China, growth is expected to be more noticeable, and vendors such as Xiaomi, Huawei and Lenovo have gained a strong market share in the lower-priced smartphone segment
iPhone and Samsung hold the first position in brand awareness, whilst growth of Chinese brands is not negligible
According to a new report from Avanti, the Shanghai-located consumer behaviour research division of Taiwan-based TrendForce, statistics show that when asked about smartphones without mentioning a specific brand, roughly half of local consumers in China show the most interest for Apple (50%) and Samsung Electronics products (25%)
Products from China vendors however are making an increasingly extended impression with Chinese consumers While there was growing demand for iPhone and Samsung products from 2012 throughout the second quarter of 2014, there was also increased demand for Xiaomi, Huawei and Lenovo products Xiaomi saw the biggest increase, with a Top of Mind rate rising from 3% to 27% over 10 quarters for a 24pp increase Huawei’s meanwhile jumped from 3% to 23% and Lenovo 8% to 18% While such percentages are still not comparable to the rates consumers have for Apple and Samsung products, they do show clear signs of stemming quickly
Meanwhile, Nokia and HTC’s Top of Mind rates are decreasing, the Avanti statistics pointed out Nokia dropped from the number one spot at 12% in first-quarter 2012 to 16% in second-quarter 2014, and HTC 23% to 16% over the same period, making them the two main vendors whose Top of Mind rates in China are dropping the most significantly
Figure 1 Top of Mind by Smartphone Vendor
Source: TrendForce
Chinese consumers more willing to purchase local products; Xiaomi holds number 3 spot
There have been obvious changes from the first quarter in 2012 to the second quarter of 2014 in terms of what kinds of smartphones Chinese consumers want to purchase iPhone used to have a 37% rate, which dropped as of the third quarter of 2013 Avanti believes this is because consumers felt the smartphone had lacking new innovation, and a smaller-than-desired screen (4-inches) However, due to the release of iPhone 5c and 5s Apple’s percentage increased to 22% in the second quarter, regaining the top spot
Samsung’s percentage came in second at 21%, which Avanti said it attributes to Samsung’s advertising in addition to the release of the Galaxy S5 Xiaomi meanwhile came in third due to increase in advertising and low-priced units while Huawei and Lenovo also saw increases and Nokia/HTC clear decreases
Consumers have become focused on product affordability
In terms of pricing advantages, consumers in China feel that Xiaomi and Huawei to be the top two Though iPhone and Samsung products are considered to have the most reliability and brand visibility, consumers are having similar opinions regarding to user-friendliness toward both brands with Xiaomi and Huawei, with some consumers believing that Xiaomi has surpassed the two international giants due to the vendor’s smartphone special features
Avanti also said that as growth in the overall smartphone market is cooling down, vendors are using low-priced units to gain market share while high-end units are no longer solely dominating Vendors therefore expected to further develop low-priced and mid-range units, added Avanti
Figure 2 Changes in the brands consumers want to purchase for their next smartphone
Source: TrendForce
2014/07/09
The memory storage industry is expected to see overall growth in the second half of this year driven primarily by smartphone demand As this occurs, commodity DRAM capacity will be tight, which is expected to remain unchanged in the short term This will bring increased demand for server as well as mobile DRAM during the second half of the year, and DRAM vendors as a result are likely to report record-high profits In terms of the NAND Flash market, the market is expected to turn from oversupply in the first half of the year into balanced supply during the second half, as OEM and module customer demand strengthens All of these factors will push up pricing in the industry during the second half as a result, according to DRAMeXchange, a subsidiary of Taiwan-based market intelligence firm TrendForce
Smartphone shipments cause DRAM supply to be tight; prices expected to rise
Smartphone shipments in 2014 are expected to grow 29% on year to 1196 billion due to increased demand in China as a result of 4G TD-LTE developments; the release of the new iPhone; recovery in economies across the globe, and increased demand for entry-level and mid-range smartphones Within that number, Chinese vendors’ shipments are expected to make up 373% The Chinese vendors will mostly use eMCP technology in their smartphones while the new iPhone will use LPDDR3 1GB technology This will lead to a slight increase in mobile DRAM prices during the third quarter and will quicken the exchange of LPDDR2 technology to LPDDR3, according to DRAMeXchange Assistant Vice President Avril Wu
PC DRAM supply meanwhile is expected to remain tight into the third quarter, which can already be seen from supply imbalances with Intel chips, and is expected to see a 26% increase in shipments during 2015 The tight supply comes as notebook shipments are recovering better than expected, particularly following the suspension of Windows XP services, coupled with new notebook sales as a result of subsidies that have prompted positive results within the corporate PC replacement cycle
Wu also noted that end PC DRAM supply has been tight due to increased demand for Big Data, and because commodity DRAM and mobile DRAM have been in tight supply This has led to a slight increase in pricing for PC DRAM as well as an increase in the proportion of NAND Flash SSD used
Smartphones will help balance supply for NAND Flash
Going into the second half of 2014 smartphones will play a major role in the NAND Flash market According to DRAMeXchange Assistant Vice President Sean Yang, most new smartphones from major smartphone vendors will be released after mid-3Q14 OEM manufacturers meanwhile have been gathering reserves since June and NAND flash capacity is being shifted to system products, which is putting a strain on channel customer supply This has led to an increase in NAND Flash pricing as a result
Enterprise SSD demand will also increase in the second half as a result of increased demand for server and cloud computing storage increases coupled with the peaking mobile device segment Some vendors may also not be able to meet demand, which will tighten up supply for NAND Flash Additionally, Yang said that NAND Flash manufacturers have also been shifting capacity to high profit products, which should help increase performances in the second half of the year
2014/06/12
The world’s leading touch IC maker Synaptics announces to buy the panel driver IC supplier Renesas SP Drivers for $470 million, and this is the latest major deal between the touch IC maker and driver IC maker following FocalTech’s merger with Orise Tech According to the global intelligence provider TrendForce, the acquisitions one after another would turn a new page for the integration of TDDI (Touch with Display Driver)
The idea of TDDI has been proposed for quite a while, and under this structure, the reduction of IC used would not only cut costs but help simplify the electric circuit and development From clients’ perspective, the integrated supply chain would enforce the management efficiency of the procurement system Currently, as touch IC makers and panel driver IC makers hold business resources categorized into distinct camps of suppliers, and panel makers dominate the driver IC development research and strongly control the orders, the promotion of TDDI faces significant obstacles
Based on TrendForce’s analysis, the current TDDI development has three advantageous directions Firstly, as the panel glass, touch module, and related components of white-box smart phones are mostly assembled by the mid-and small-sized panel module suppliers in the Chinese white-box market, they are fully capable to promote the generic-model products under this unique supply chain structure Meanwhile, TDDI’s advantage to cut costs eases whit-box makers’ primary concern on prices, which would easily catch the eye of module makers
Secondly, for the product with less frequent updates, such as Apple’s iPhone seeing the new model launched once per year, their longer product life cycle would accumulate volumetric shipment and lower the amortized development cost per unit, which underlines further the cost advantage of TDDI
Unfortunately, the mainstream smart phones running on Android have the panels and touch modules updated frequently amid the shorter lifecycle, and with the condition, TDDI shows limited advantages compared to the conventional structure of touch IC and driver IC placed independently
Lastly, in view of the panels integrating touch products strongly promoted by panel makers recently, Taiwan-based Innolux, AUO, and CPT have the development core on On-cell structures, while Korea’s LGD and Japan’s JDI are devoted to the more complex In-cell products For panel makers, either In-cell or On-cell is the key weapon to share the touch business, and the integration of touch and driver IC is an inevitable trend in the long term This kind of products are obviously beneficial to the TDDI development, which is likely to be the first segment for TDDI to promote
2014/06/05
TrendForce and Taipei Computer Association (TCA) will be hosting “TrendForce Compuforum” at Computex 2014 in Room 504 at Nanagang Exhibition Hall on June 5, 2014 The event will assemble the company’s four research divisions DRAMeXchange, WitsView, LEDinside and EnergyTrend for the first time Guest speakers from well-known international manufacturers including SanDisk, ARM, Qualcomm and Synaptics will gather at the event to discuss the latest technology and market trends in 2014 Below is the summarized content:
The DRAM industry showed a strong recovery in 2013 following the consolidation of the market and is poised to become more profitable with the support of the industry’s top three manufacturers Looking at 2014, DRAMeXchange Assistant Vice President Avril Wu projects the entire industry output value will grow 33% YoY to approximately US $459 billion Industry profits are anticipated to increase in both 2014 and 2015 as the average industry prices stabilize under restrained supply growth and as manufacturers cut down overall spending With regards to technological advances, given that an increasing number of manufacturers are beginning to push towards 20nm manufacturing process, the annual bit growth for the DRAM industry could arrive to as much as 27% in 2014 The industry’s transformation into an oligopoly, essentially, has brought orders to the supplier market, and makes profitability as the industry priority
DRAMeXchange: NAND Flash Industry Development Continues to Improve due to Mobile Device Growth
On the other hand, the shipment momentum of smartphones, tablets, and relevant mobile devices will continue to play a crucial role in stimulating demand for mobile solutions such as eMMC and eMCP In 2014, the consumption of eMMC, eMCP, and other Mobile NAND that are being utilized will reach an estimated 25%, and the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is expected to reach close to 60% As eMMC becomes more affordable and with growing number of mainstream manufacturers opting to support the format, eMMC solutions might eventually extend from mainstream mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets into other types of consumer electronic products This year eMMC will not only be applied in Google’s highly promoted Chromebook, but also in other popular wearable devices The increasing use of NAND Flash components in novel mobile devices is anticipated to benefit the entire industry's development in the long term, projected DRAMeXchange
Intuitive touch-based operations significantly contributed to the popularization of mobile devices, but development in the touch module market has far been smooth Touch module specs have reached maturity in smartphone and tablets Panel makers continue to release touch module integrated In-cell and On-cell panel products to further accelerate market competition, and has intensified price wars
“As for the highly-anticipated wearable devices, due to the small display area and unclear level of market acceptance, this segment will have very limited contributions to the touch module industry,” Chiou added “However, wearable devices are likely to be the first to apply curved and flexible displays and have an opportunity to spear head touch technology development”
In the past, LED application in cell phones has been minimal, mainly limited to displays and keyboard backlighting However, the rise of smartphones has led to growing consumer demands for new features including larger displays and higher resolutions These new capabilities require more LEDs to increase backlight modules brightness Pixels are used to enhance camera modules and flash LEDs added to provide brighter flash lights, with some smartphone manufactures even using dual-LED flash
EnergyTrend: Consumer Battery Output to Grow More Than 8% in 2014, Showing Positive Overall Industry Development
“Batteries in the future NB market will focus on high-capacity to meet ultra-thin product trends,” noted Lu “Although, a new SoC module with higher energy efficiency has been installed in smartphones, demands to prolong battery life continues due to users longer periods of internet surfing and general usage Moreover, accompanying various wearable devices with motion sensors, these batteries can be applied in consumer and industrial products, thus generating a new wave of demands within the battery industry”
2014/05/21
EnergyTrend, green energy research division of TrendForce, and SNEC, the organizer of the world’s largest solar industry exhibition jointly hosted EnergyTrend PVforum 2014 at Kerry Hotel in Shanghai on May 21, 2014 EnergyTrend’s analysts offered in-depth analyses, covering important issues within PV and energy-storage industries Below is the summarized content:
Distributed PV is an important future demand source for the Chinese market, will affect global supply chain development
Global PV installation continued to increase in 2014 Aside for large demands from utility-scale power plants and residential systems; expanding distributed PV systems, ranging from several thousand to a couple million watts, have also become an industry focus that is leading and motivating the foreign solar market
“Global PV demand is 466GW in 2014, in which, Chinese market has the fastest growth In just two years, China’s demand increased from 1GW to more than 10GW to becoming the largest PV market in the world,” said Jason Huang, research manager of EnergyTrend
China is devoted to the development of distributed PV systems mainly to utilize solar power more efficiently Solar plant power capacity in 18 pilot projects installed in 2013 amounted to 749MW and is expected to soar 243% to 1823MW in 2015 Although, China is still exploring promotion, construction, operation, and investment strategies for distributed PV systems, Huang noted distributed PV is still an important future demand source for the Chinese market The system will also impact global PV supply chain development
Wafer price will remain stable in 2Q14, while polysilicon oversupply may occur in 2H14
The recent demand spike is due to the postponement of the US-China anti-dumping and countervailing preliminary ruling to July 24, 2014 In addition, China increased shipment demands, while Japan’s shipments remained high, the Europe’s economy also recovered Based on the uptrend of manufacturers’ monthly revenues, wafer prices will likely be stable in 2Q14
“High-efficiency wafer price will remain at above US$ 10/piece in 2Q14, while mono-si wafer price, with relatively stable supply and demand, will fall between US$12-125/piece,” said Arthur Hsu, research manager of EnergyTrend
Looking into the future, new capacities of polysilicon and module will enter mass production stage in 2H14 In addition, various relevant policies will become clearer including the US-China anti-dumping and countervailing results, which might trigger polysilicon oversupply Moreover, new market demand changes will also affect the price trend in 2H14
CAGR of solar energy storage using lithium battery market will reach 75% from 2014 to 2020
As countries continue to promote energy policies related to sustainable development, energy-storage market demand has increased “The general solar energy storage using lithium battery market will increase from 180mWh in 2014 to 5gWh in 2020, with a CAGR of 75%,” said Duff Lu, research manager of EnergyTrend
Japan began issuing residential energy-storage system subsidies in 2011 It was the first sign of energy-storage systems entering the residential market, rather than for emergency industrial power Later in 2014, Japan introduced another plan to raise energy-storage system subsidies by 60% On the other hand, Germany’s electricity retail price is now higher than FiT, which has declined annually, leading to rising demand for autonomous energy-storage systems The subsidy for energy-storage systems represented 30% of overall subsidies in 2013 Take a battery equipped with solar power capacity of 30kW for example, the battery subsidy would approximately amount to EUR 600/kW (equivalent to US$800/kW)
China established new energy power plants that have integrated wind, photovoltaic, energy storage systems to magnify the country’s lithium-ion battery advantages “By promoting electric vehicles and energy storage systems, Chinese lithium battery industry might become another mainstream industry, following in the footsteps of IT,” added Lu
EnergyTrend PVforum 2014 is sponsored by CHROMA ATE INC
