Cloud demand tightens memory supply, boosting contract prices. Spot market is soft, yet prices rise. A slight shortage supports prices, but outlook is cautious due to policy shifts.
TrendForce offers you a complete analysis on DRAM industry supply/demand sufficiency, cost analysis and price forecast.
2Q25 server DRAM revenue increased by 11% QoQ, driven by DDR5 shipments and DDR4 price recovery. CSPs shifted from destocking to restocking, and DDR4, due to strong demand for storage server applications, became a highlight and a long-tail product. Samsung led in market share, SK hynix had the largest revenue growth, and Micron benefited from high-capacity modules.
4Q25 Server and Smartphone DRAM contract prices are rising. TrendForce will upgrade 2026 server and DRAM demand forecasts due to AI expansion and sovereign AI, anticipating higher bit growth and narrower H1 price decline, though HBM3e faces pressure.
In 2Q25, global smartphone production saw a slight increase due to seasonal demand and inventory adjustments. Production estimates for 2025 and 2026 suggest steady growth. Mobile DRAM revenue was driven by low baselines, higher shipments, and price increases. Reduced LPDDR4X supply led to panic buying and significantly higher prices.
2Q25 DRAM revenue grew notably from price and shipment increases. 3Q25 momentum is expected to continue, with accelerating price hikes. US CSPs show robust demand but slightly elevated inventory. Smartphone demand remains weak, with conservative procurement and LPDDR4x supply tightening.
AI servers remain higher than general-purpose servers regarding shipment dynamics among ODMs in 2H25, thus triggering growths for liquid-cooling suppliers. Liquid-cooling solutions are likely to penetrate the cloud market continuously, with focuses placed on cold plates and dividers. Supply chain players are cultivating their partnerships with major US CSPs to stabilize shipment and upgrades. Growth momentum would mostly stem from expanded deployments among CSPs and high-power servers.
DRAM contract prices are expected to peak by late 2025, then decline as new capacity emerges. DDR4 faces critical long-term shortages. HBM3e prices soften, HBM4 maintains a premium, with Samsung leading HBM4 tech. AI server demand surges, driving early orders and new memory solutions like LPCAMM2.
The iPhone 17 lineup officially welcomes a new ultra-thin flagship model. Apart from the base variant, all models in the series feature notable upgrades in design and hardware specifications. Although the overall smartphone market faces increasing challenges, both in demand and pricing, shipments are still expected to see slight growth over last year. The Pro series will remain the primary sales driver, while the market acceptance and sales performance of the new Air model will require time to be validated.
Smartphone production is recovering due to seasonal demand and inventory adjustments. Top brands dominate. China's subsidy offers limited long-term impact. Market uncertainty demands agile, diversified strategies.
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