Memory is entering a strong upward cycle, driving a significant rise in overall device BOM cost. To maintain profit margins, brands are adjusting their high-, mid-, and low-tier product mixes and implementing tiered hikes on retail prices. Soaring memory prices, coupled with a weak macro economy, create dual headwinds that will suppress production and shipment momentum for consumer electronics in 2026.
Q4 sees a polarized demand in the electronics sector：consumer weak, AI strong. Holiday stocking cools; suppliers pivot to 2026 AI. NVIDIA's new architecture boosts MLCC use. Capacitor price hikes change BOM; MLCC wins.
CapEx figures, production capacity figures, and inventory levels of MLCC suppliers are constantly being tracked and updated on a regular basis. TrendForce also provides analyses on the price trends and inventory statuses of production-related materials.
Weak seasonal demand prompts conservative ODM stockpiling. US government shutdown and weak consumer sentiment dampen spending. China/global electronics orders slump; only AI server/MLCC orders hold. Consumer MLCC prices bottom at cost, amid supplier cost cuts, production adjustments.
US-China trade tensions escalate with tariff increases and export controls on rare earths and lithium batteries. Geopolitical conflicts undermine year-end consumer confidence, causing ICT demand to weaken. Despite robust AI infrastructure orders driving record shipments, smartphone and laptop markets remain cautious. The MLCC industry faces rare earth supply challenges, prompting suppliers to diversify sourcing strategies while manufacturers optimize costs and adjust capacity allocation.
US political and economic uncertainty weakens consumption; cautious ODM procurement keeps supply chain tight. Only Apple models and AI servers bring highlights while most market remains conservative.
US August employment data significantly missed expectations, with unemployment rate rising to historic high and weak domestic demand. OEMs and ODMs showed cautious new order planning, indicating unstable consumption demand. FED cut rates to combat recession, leading to currency volatility and pricing challenges for suppliers. US-China tariffs exacerbate economic pressures, with global consumer demand likely to remain subdued.
U.S. inflation pressures and labor market weakness lead to rate cuts; traditional demand drops while AI servers and automotive electronics grow, causing supply chain segmentation.
Global economy remains cautious, supply chain stays conservative, market demand is weak, and uncertainties persist amid political and economic factors.
In Q4, weak mobile and notebook demand led suppliers to cut production to stabilize prices. High-end and automotive MLCC price drops narrow due to competition. Economic uncertainties in US and China affect the market, driving conservative pricing strategies by suppliers.
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