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2022/08/31
According to TrendForce research, NAND Flash contract pricing increased by approximately 3-8% in 2Q22 due to Kioxia’s raw material contamination incident However, consumer demand remained sluggish, resulting in weaker bits demand in laptops, chromebooks, TVs, and smartphones and leading to a rise in client inventory levels Enterprise SSD purchasing has maintained strong momentum, offsetting sluggish consumer demand In 2Q22, supplier bit shipments decreased by 13% QoQ, while ASP increased by 23% Overall NAND Flash industry revenue reached US$1812 billion, growing 11% QoQ
Since consumer demand is weak, the slump in shipments has offset demand for mobile NAND Flash even though average smartphone capacity is still growing At the same time, PC customers continue to lower their shipment expectations, resulting in flat shipments of client SSDs In contrast, server shipments are booming while a backstop remains for enterprise SSD demand from data centers, though the overall situation caused Samsung's 2Q22 bit shipments to decrease by nearly 10% However, thanks to exchange rates and high-capacity products, the company’s product mix improved, driving NAND Flash ASP higher and pushing revenue to US$598 billion, down 54% QoQ
SK Group (SK hynix & Solidigm) strengthened its partnerships with North American clients in 2Q22 and successfully increased the proportion of SSD product shipments post-raw material contamination incident, which helped SK hynix’s growth performance this quarter Strong demand for servers also led to growth in Solidigm's enterprise SSD shipments, resulting in SK Group's consolidated NAND bit shipments growing nearly 10% QoQ NAND Flash ASP was also boosted by product mix synergy In total, SK Group's NAND Flash revenue in 2Q22 increased by 121% QoQ to US$361 billion
Due to its raw material contamination incident at the beginning of the year and loss of output caused by pandemic-related closure of auxiliary packaging and testing facilities, Kioxia's bit shipments fell by more than 20% in 2Q22 However, ASP increased thanks to exchange rates and strong shipment performance of enterprise SSD Kioxia’s total 2Q22 revenue came in at US$283 billion, falling 163% QoQ The company’s revenue market share fell to third place
Western Digital's 2Q22 bit shipments grew 6% QoQ and its NAND Flash division revenue was US$240 billion, up 70% QoQ Enterprise SSD revenue doubled and the proportion of high-priced products increased, resulting in a 2% QoQ increase in overall ASP Western Digital posted good SSD revenue performance in this quarter In addition to enterprise SSD, bit shipments of gaming SSD also increased by 70% YoY At the same time, the company was certified as a supplier for Sony’s PS5
Micron benefited from heightened purchasing from PC OEM customers in response to the raw material contamination incident and strong demand from data center customers Its chief TLC and 96L products drove the growth of enterprise SSD shipments in 2Q22 The company also gained more market share in the client SSD segment, pushing up 2Q22 NAND Flash revenue by 169% to US$229 billion, a record high Bit shipments grew approximately 17-19%, while ASP dropped slightly by nearly 1%
Looking at 3Q22, TrendForce indicates that rising inflation, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the pandemic will continue to depress market demand and lead to a disappointing peak season Since oversupply continues to fester, the supply chain is expected to aggressively destock in 3Q22, leading to product dumping NAND Flash contract pricing is expected to fall by 13-18% and overall revenue is expected to drop by 10% QoQ
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/08/24
As rising inflationary pressure continues to weaken the global economy, demand for various consumer applications has been downgraded since the second quarter and is expected not improve until the end of the year Although server demand is stable, a period of inventory adjustment has been ushered in, which exacerbates oversupply in the NAND Flash market According to TrendForce investigations, since sellers are no longer locked into fixed pricing, NAND Flash price declines in the third quarter expanded from the original forecast of 8~13% to 13~18% QoQ If manufacturers' production capacity planning is not curtailed, this decline is likely to continue into the fourth quarter
In terms of client SSDs, previously prepared inventory resulting from the raw material contamination issue has become a heavy burden due to further downgrades in the shipment outlook of educational Chromebooks and NBs Therefore, PC brands must continue to digest SSD inventory in 1H22, resulting in another revision of third quarter purchase orders A background cause of price declines has been a gradual expansion of the supply of 176-layer client SSD products and the optimized cost structure of 176-layer QLC SSD At the same time, YMTC's low-cost client SSD is striving to be adopted by more notebook customers in 2H22, so TrendForce estimates that price declines will expand to 10-15% QoQ
In terms of enterprise SSDs, demand for enterprise orders is trending conservative as the global economy slows down The purchasing momentum of enterprise SSDs in the third quarter showed signs of decline, while orders from Chinese cloud service providers did not improve Shipments of next-generation server platforms expected by suppliers has been repeatedly delayed and has lost its demand backstop, resulting in a bleaker 2H22 enterprise SSD market compared to the first half of the year As the average price of NAND Flash in consumer products is relatively low and the demand outlook poor, the supply side hopes to support revenue growth by increasing shipments in the enterprise SSD category Looking at buyers’ attitudes, with the expectation that prices will fall at least until 2Q23, eager seller promotions have not stimulated purchasing and sellers have had to increase the scope of price concessions Third quarter declines in contract prices is estimated to expanded further to 10-15% QoQ
In terms of eMMC, Chromebook demand is poor and TV shipments have been further downgraded throughout the year While networking product shipments are relatively good, it is still difficult for this one product category to bridge the gap in demand created by other eMMC applications As inventory risk remains high, buyers have set destocking as their primary goal in the third quarter Most buyers are in no hurry to procure goods, so eMMC pricing continues to fall Due to the stable supply of 2D eMMC products, oversupply in 3D high-capacity products, and a negative purchasing attitude among end customers, the target price range has been lower than sellers’ psychological bottom line for this quarter, forcing sellers to reconsider and accept buyer price proposals Therefore, the decline in eMMC contract pricing in the third quarter was adjusted to 13-18% QoQ
In terms of UFS, its primary product application, the smartphone market, remains poor In the third quarter, Samsung and Chinese brands focused on destocking and the shipment target of new phones was conservative Therefore, the UFS market in 2H22 remains pessimistic Due to the poor progress of terminal inventory digestion, buyers are strictly enforcing inventory control In order to facilitate transactions, sellers are furiously persuading major first-tier customers to commit to certain quantities in advance and offering large discounts to attract orders Sellers are, similarly, conceding to pricing proposals from second- and third-tier customers Therefore, TrendForce expects declines in UFS contract pricing in the third quarter to expand to 13-18% QoQ
In terms of NAND Flash wafers, significant support for wafer demand has not appeared due to a sluggish terminal demand outlook and module manufacturers retaining a strategy of purchasing small amounts of items Factory wafers are still being sold at reduced prices and, until the demand outlook improves, wafer quotations will continue to drop quarter by quarter in 2H22 Since manufacturers continue to expand the supply of wafers, YMTC’s new manufacturing facility has also begun to contribute to its production capacity Various production capacity plans and technological advancements from SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron will not change despite poor market conditions With increasing inventory pressure, manufacturers has been psychologically prepared to shoulder the drop in average NAND Flash pricing and eroded profits The forecast decline in the contract price of wafers in the third quarter will remain at 15-20% QoQ
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/08/03
According to TrendForce, DRAM market demand bit growth will only amount to 83% in 2023, sub-10% for the first time in history, and far lower than supply-side bit growth of approximately 141% Data indicates the DRAM market to be severely oversupplied at least in 2023 and prices may continue to decline NAND Flash is still in a state of oversupply and, although prices are expected to fall in the first half of next year, NAND Flash has built-in price elasticity compared to DRAM and average prices are expected to stimulate density growth in the enterprise SSD market after declining for several consecutive quarters Demand bits are expected to grow by 289%, while supply bits will grow by approximately 321%
From the perspective of various applications, rising inflation continues to impact demand in consumer markets, so the primary goal of memory brands has been to prioritize inventory correction Especially in the past two years, a shortage of upstream components caused by the pandemic led memory brands to overbook purchase orders while sluggish sales on the distribution channel side have resulted in slow depletion of current notebook inventory, resulting in a further weakening of notebook demand in 2023 In terms of PC DRAM, the proportion of DDR4 and LPDDR4X in PC applications will fall further while the penetration rate of LPDDR5 and DDR5 continues to rise However, the price premium of DDR5 will limit the growth of density in PCs DRAM density in PCs is estimate to increase by approximately 7% annually in 2023 If manufactures cut DDR5 pricing more aggressively next year, installed capacity may be driven up to 9%, depending on whether DDR5 price concessions can be effectively reconciled with DDR4
In terms of PC client SSDs, estimated average installed capacity only increased slightly by 11%, the lowest in the past three years The primary reason is that in the past two years, notebook shipments had spiked due to pandemic demand, simultaneously driving SSD installation rate Average capacity has readily driven up average capacity growth due to the previous tightening of SSD master IC supply However, notebook computer whole device costs have maintained an upward trend in the past two years due to the rising price of components, leading to branded PC manufacturers planning relatively conservative SSD capacity demand bits
Since server shipment forecasts have demonstrated impressive growth in past years, subsequent growth momentum will slow since computational fundamentals are already high In terms of Server DRAM, due to the advent of fifth generation memory specifications, the new Sapphire Rapids and Genoa platforms have increased the cost of whole devices and average server capacity has begun to encounter restrictions Instead of the prior practice of merely upgrading the capacity of a single module, demand side considerations will focus more on hardware costs and the practice of ESG strategies Average capacity increase of server DRAM is forecast to be limited in 2023, with an annual increase of approximately 7%
In terms of Enterprise SSD, the new Sapphire Rapids and Genoa platforms have begun to upgrade to support the PCIe 50 transfer standard in order to meet the needs of HPC and big data computing The capacity of SSDs must also be upgraded simultaneously to ensure PCIe 50 transfer performance This trend will contribute to the growth of the average capacity of enterprise SSDs next year In addition, as the overall NAND Flash oversupply continues into 1H23, a reduction in NAND Flash pricing will increase the shipment ratio of products above 4TB and the average annual growth rate of enterprise SSD capacity in 2023 is estimated to be 26%
As inflation rises, world economies are generally holding a pessimistic view of the consumer market TrendForce believes, cyclical replacement demand and new demand in emerging regions will lead to a slight increase in smartphone production In terms of Mobile DRAM, the Android camp currently has sufficient installed capacity to meet the needs of daily systems operation Therefore, barring impetus provided by innovative applications and considering the cost of whole devices and the low proportion of high-end sales, smartphone brands’ willingness to increase installed capacity has fallen accordingly In terms of the iOS camp, a high degree of operating system optimization reduces demand for mobile DRAM capacity Mobile DRAM density is estimated to increase by only 5% annually in 2023
In terms of smartphone NAND Flash, as the penetration rate of 5G smartphones gradually expands and applications require larger installed capacity to meet the needs of high-quality video recording, basic momentum can be seen for increasing NAND Flash density in smartphones At the same time, the iPhone product portfolio is still moving towards higher capacity across the board and high-end Android models have followed suit with 512GB as standard, while storage in mid- and low-end models will increase with subsequent upgrades in hardware specifications Thus, there is still room for growth in overall average capacity Annual growth of smartphone NAND Flash density is forecast to be maintained at 221% in 2023, slightly lower than that in 2022, but still at a high level
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
The Webinar, ”COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar: Diverse Market Opportunities Generated by Applications of Cyber-Physical Systems” will start from June 15, 2022 The TrendForce research team including Mark Liu, Caron Ju, Bryan Ao, and Alex Chen will present speeches regarding memory, servers, and datacenters, respectively
【Info】
When：Wednesday, June, 15
Where：COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar (Free to access)
2022/07/19
According to TrendForce, market oversupply intensified in 2Q22 due to lagging demand and continued NAND Flash output and process advancement The market consensus is a disappointing 2H22 peak season for consumer electronics including notebooks, TVs, and smartphones Material inventory levels continue to rise and has become a risk to the supply chain Due to slow destocking among distributors and a conservative stocking approach among clients, inventory problems have bubbled over upstream onto the supply side and sellers are under increased pressure to sell TrendForce estimates, due to the rapid deterioration of the balance between supply and demand, the drop in NAND Flash pricing will expand to 8~13% in 3Q22, and this decline may continue into 4Q22
In terms of Client SSD, due to weak consumer demand, various PC brands have significantly reduced their purchase order volume in 3Q22 in order to digest 1H22 SSD inventory As suppliers shift focus to 176-layer client SSD, 176-layer QLC SSDs have begun to ship, and YMTC looks to expand shipment of notebook client SSDs in 2H22, price competition has become increasingly fierce, forcing manufacturers to increase price concessions to incentivize clients to up order volume Thus, the decline in client SSD pricing is expected to expand to 8~13% in 3Q22
In terms of Enterprise SSD, purchasing momentum in 2H22 will be inferior to 1H22, mainly due to the impact of the overall economic recession on server brands’ shipments of whole devices Corporate order volume continues to decline, simultaneously affecting the purchasing momentum of enterprise SSDs in 3Q22 Secondly, orders from cloud service providers in China were weak in 3Q22 and demand driven by shipments of next-generation server platforms failed to meet expectations In order to boost the growth of enterprise SSD revenue, suppliers expect to stimulate sales through more generous price negotiations However, buyers are currently unwilling to expand procurement, so enterprise SSD price declines are estimated to broaden to 5~10% in 3Q22
In terms of eMMC, weak demand for major applications such as chromebooks and TVs has induced buyers to carefully control inventory, so it is hard to see any signs of life in eMMC pricing Although manufacturers’ long-term plans involve a continued reduction in the supply of 2D eMMC products to keep prices stable End customers and module customers are focused on destocking due to the recent overall downward trend in demand Eventually, oversupply in the eMMC market will become more serious than expected Therefore, the price of eMMC in 3Q22 will drop by another 8-13%
In terms of UFS, since China’s 618 e-commerce promotions have not induced recovery in smartphone demand, destocking of whole devices has become a top priority for Chinese OEMs Sluggish demand has not only impacted Chinese smartphone brands Even Samsung, which is mainly focused on markets excluding China, has warned that the demand outlook is clouded, leading to a sustained weakening of the UFS market in 2H22 Originally, sellers held the view that price concessions would not stimulate demand and were unwilling to negotiate pricing With rising inventory pressure, reducing prices to capture sales is inevitable The decline in UFS pricing is estimated to expand to 8~13% in 3Q22
In terms of NAND Flash wafers, a rebound in demand during peak season and the lifting of lockdowns in China were originally forecast to refresh the market However, demand continues to deteriorate and inventory at module factories and end customers remains high, resulting in a sustained decline in wafer quotations At the same time, manufacturers continue to expand the supply of wafers and process optimization continued to improve, resulting in magnified inventory pressure at the factory end The decline in NAND Flash wafer pricing is estimated to expand to 15~20% in 3Q22
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
The Webinar, ”COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar: Diverse Market Opportunities Generated by Applications of Cyber-Physical Systems” will start from June 15, 2022 The TrendForce research team including Mark Liu, Caron Ju, Bryan Ao, and Alex Chen will present speeches regarding memory, servers, and datacenters, respectively
【Info】
When：Wednesday, June, 15
Where：COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar (Free to access)
