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2023/08/16
TrendForce announces a revised forecast for 2023 server shipments, protecting a downward shift of 594% YoY This downward revision is attributed to various economic challenges, including Meta’s diminished demand for 2H23 and a sluggish start in China’s internal tech demand in 1H23 (including state-owned cloud and East-West computing projects)
This shift highlights the larger economic pressures of inflation globally CSPs are reshaping their strategies, leaning more into AI investments Such a pivot, while innovative, has inadvertently led to a squeeze in the budget for traditional server shipments, affecting the tech market landscape
Notably, server shipments in the third quarter are expected to show slight growth compared to Q2 However, a subsequent decline is expected as the year edges into its final quarter
TrendForce identifies several recent indicators affecting server market momentum:
1 China’s stumbling blocks: The country’s state-owned enterprises have been putting for underwhelming bids Despite CSPs channeling efforts into AI, China’s server demand is anticipated to dip by 97% compared to its 2022 numbers
2 Global economic strains: Ongoing inflationary pressures and subsequent interest rate hikes have companies tightening their belts Enterprise server demand has notably waned, prompting industry giants like HPE and Dell to double down on subscription services and expand into the AI server niche
3 Supply chain hiccups: Current indications show supply chain inventory being gradually cleared, with a significant revival in purchasing dynamics expected only toward year-end
4 CSPs’ evolving focus: With budgets being redirected, a surge in demand for older server platforms is on the horizon for 2H23, reducing the scale of new platform rollouts and possibly limiting space for 2024 server shipments
Microsoft and Meta focus investment on AI, delaying adoption of new platforms
Furthermore, the spotlight on CSP’s reveals an interesting trend: Microsoft, post its AI investment spur, anticipates a 52% YoY increase in server acquisitions For budgetary reasons, Microsoft continues to delay the scale of its Gen 9 platform, instead increasing the scale of Gen 7 & 8 Simultaneously, Meta has slashed its server purchase plans by a striking 11-15% In a clear strategic shift, the latter is channeling more funds toward AI-centric equipment for 2H23
Current supply chain data suggests that Meta will focus more of its budget on AI-related equipment, which means the scale of general server orders will noticeably contract In contrast, AWS and Google have maintained steady expansion of their public-cloud businesses, with order adjustments remaining relatively stable in the 2H23 with an expected annual purchase volume growth of 4–5%
On the OEM front, Lenovo grapples with global inflationary backlash, seeing a dip in its core business, but its White-Box Cloud business has been less affected HPE continues to capitalize on the value brought by its GreenLake venture Specifically, the company’s annual revenue-run rate in Q2 grew by 35% YoY, with server shipments growing approximately 10% Dell, however, affected by an elevated baseline set in 2022 due to stockpiling, forecasts a 163% annual drop in shipments
2023/08/02
In July, EV battery prices in China demonstrated stability, with lithium salt prices registering a marginal decline The prices of EV square ternary cells, LFP cells, and pouch ternary power cells in July remained relatively consistent with the prior month, positioned at CNY 073/Wh, 065/Wh, and 078/Wh, respectively This trend comes amid relatively muted demand in the EV sector, according to TrendForce research
Meanwhile, energy storage batteries witnessed steady market demand The average price of these batteries dropped 1% MoM, falling to CNY 066/Wh, driven by falling prices of LFP cathode materials Current overcapacity in China’s energy storage battery production is escalating competition, and the trend points to a continuous, albeit slow, drop in prices Recently quoted prices for energy storage project bids have dipped below 06/Wh
Consumer batteries faced weakening demand in the consumer electronics market in July, leading battery manufacturers to cut back their capacity utilization rates Nevertheless, a slight uptick in the price of cobalt metal curtailed any significant drop in battery prices, which remained mostly consistent with the previous month However, LCO battery prices are predicted to continue their downward trajectory in August, given the slow decrease in raw material (lithium salt and cobalt [II, III] oxide) prices, as well as lackluster downstream demand
TrendForce points out that the Guangzhou Futures Exchange listed seven lithium carbonate futures contracts in July Despite an initial major decline, futures prices managed a subsequent recovery, yet remained on a downward trend relative to the listing’s benchmark price This also coincides with a gradual decrease in spot lithium carbonate prices, with July witnessing a 5% MoM fall in average lithium salt prices
TrendForce believes that structural overcapacity is present to varying extents across most segments of China's lithium-ion battery industry chain, leading to a downward trend in supply chain prices Among them, the price of lithium metal, which has the greatest impact on supply chain prices, is gradually stabilizing, reducing the likelihood of significant fluctuations The listing of lithium carbonate futures has set the trend for spot prices of lithium carbonate over the next six months to a year In the short term, the overall price changes in the lithium-ion battery supply chain are expected to stabilize However, TrendForce does not rule out the possibility of a minor rebound in lithium salt prices during the peak demand period in the fourth quarter
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Green Energy Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/07/05
TrendForce reports that EV battery prices in Chinese markets continued to decline throughout June, though the rate of decline across all product types has started to taper off The ASP (CNY) of EV square ternary cells, LFP cells, and pouch ternary power cells in June each fell by 1¬–2% MoM, settling at 074/Wh, 065/Wh, and 078/Wh, respectively A decrease in upstream material costs was observed to be the primary factor behind falling cell prices In terms of demand, the market for EV batteries gradually stabilized in June, recovering to levels last seen in 4Q22
Market demand for energy storage cells has rebounded significantly—especially in overseas markets Chinese suppliers received a substantial amount of large-scale orders from buyers during 1H23, and 2H23 is set to be primarily focused on product delivery Meanwhile, as lithium prices gradually recovered in China, market demand for energy storage cells rose concurrently Consequently, ASP of energy storage cells in June grew by 3%—reaching 067/Wh Demand in the energy storage market is predicted to regain stability in 2H23, with enterprise orders outpacing expectations However, market competition is expected to intensify, leading to potential disparities in market orders Whether suppliers can strategize and expand their market presence overseas will be pivotal to their growth
The consumer electronics market demonstrated satisfactory demand for consumer cells in June Concurrently, raw materials such as cobalt and lithium experienced price surges, leading suppliers to adopt more aggressive pricing strategies This resulted in increased cost pressures for LCO cells, which in turn decelerated the downward trend of battery prices The ASP of LCO cells fell 18% in June, hitting 742/Ah At present, the upward trend in lithium salt prices has begun to stabilize, with even a slight decrease being observed as of late However, it remains to be seen whether growing demand from the consumer electronics market can effectively bolster LCO cell prices in July Current expectations are that prices in July will not easily rise
TrendForce observes that lithium prices began to stabilize in June, hinting at a gradual return to normalcy The global supply of lithium is anticipated to reach 12 million tons LCE in 2023—marking a 40% annual growth rate; demand is projected to be approximately 111 million tons LCE—representing an annual growth rate of 26% Significant growth in lithium mineral production is predicted this year for a number of regions, including Africa, Australia, China, and South America, forecasting a gradual return to equilibrium in the supply-demand balance
A worldwide fervor for discovering new lithium deposits continues to persist, and new lithium mining projects are constantly being put into production Bolivia—boasting the world’s richest reserves of lithium—remains unexploited industrially However, in recent years, companies such as CATL and CITIC Guoan have announced cooperative agreements with local Bolivian governments to develop these lithium reserves, aiming to achieve an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons of lithium salts by 2025
TrendForce predicts that the global supply of lithium mines will only continue to grow, and in the long run, the supply of lithium ore will become increasingly diversified and decentralized This shift should help reduce market supply risk, but it is also crucial to monitor potential risks posed by changes in local government policies on lithium mining investment and lithium export
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Green Energy Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/07/05
1、 Overview of Industry for SiC Power Devices
The landscape of Global Industry for SiC Devices
Status of SiC Supply Chain
Statuses of Major Suppliers
2、Analysis of Market for SiC Substrates
Overview of Market for SiC Substrates
Geographical Distribution of SiC Substrate Suppliers
Distribution of Cost of SiC Substrate
Technological Development Trends in Manufacturing of SiC Substrates
Developments in Equipment for Manufacturing SiC Substrates
Price Trend for SiC Substrates
Size Trend for SiC Substrates
Major SiC Substrate Suppliers and Their Main Clients
Projection on Global Production Capacity for SiC Substrates
SiC Substrate Production Lines in China
Projection on Major Chinese SiC Substrate Suppliers’Production Capacity Figures
3、Analysis of Market for SiC Epi-Wafers
Geographical Distribution of SiC Epi-Wafer Suppliers
Distribution of Cost of SiC Epi-Wafer
SiC Epi-Wafer Suppliers and Their Business Focuses
Major SiC Epi-Wafer Suppliers and Their Main Clients
Types of Reactors Used in Manufacturing SiC Epi-Wafers
Suppliers for Reactors Used in Manufacturing of SiC Epi-Wafers
4、Analysis of Market for SiC Power Devices
SiC Power Devices – Development Status
Geographical Distribution of SiC Power Device Suppliers
Distribution of Cost of SiC Power Device
Equipment for Manufacturing SiC Power Devices Chips
Equipment for Manufacturing SiC Power Devices Module Packages
Technological Developments in SiC Power Devices
Product Lines of SiC Power Device Suppliers
Market Scale of SiC Power Devices
Market Shares of SiC Power Device Suppliers
Front Production Lines of IDMs
Overview of SiC Foundry
SiC Foundry Capacity Forecast
Dynamics of Chinese SiC Foundry
5、Analysis of Market for Automotive SiC Power Devices
Global NEV Market
SiC Automotive Components
Value Ratio of SiC Automotive Components
Adoption Progress of SiC
Penetration Rate of 800V Systems
Market Scale of Automotive SiC Power Devices
Major Supply Structure of Automotive SiC Power Devices
Automotive Market’s Estimated Demand for SiC Wafers
Progress of Chinese Automotive SiC – SiC MOSFET
Progress of Chinese Automotive SiC - SiC Module
6、Analysis of Major Suppliers
Wolfspeed - Infineon - STM - ON Semi - ROHM - Bosch - X-FAB - Coherent - BYD - TankeBlue - San’an Optoelectronics - AccoPower - AscenPower - Inventchip - Global Power Technology
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
2023/06/20
TrendForce reports that inventory reduction in Q1 fell short of expectations and coincided with the industry’s traditional off-season, leading to overall subdued demand However, due to new product release and a surge in urgent orders for specialized specifications, Q1 revenue of the global top ten IC design houses remained on par with 4Q22, with a modest QoQ increase of 01% for a total revenue of US$3386 billion Changes in ranking included Cirrus Logic slipping from the top ten as well as the ninth and tenth positions being replaced by WillSemi and MPS, respectively The rest of the rankings remained unchanged
The smartphone supply continues to grapple with overstock, but AI applications are entering a period of rapid growth
Qualcomm witnessed an uptick in its revenue, largely attributed to the launch and subsequent shipments of its latest flagship chip, the Snapdragon 8Gen2 The company saw 61% in QoQ growth in its smartphone business, which effectively offset the downturn from its automotive and IoT sectors As a result, Qualcomm’s Q1 revenue increased marginally by 06%, cementing its position at the top of the pack with a market share of 235%
Broadcom, however, faced challenges stemming from the waning dividends of its product migration, coupled with a slowdown in demand for server storage and a seasonal downturn in the wireless sector This led to a first-time quarterly decrease in revenue in 1Q23, with Broadcom’s revenue decline to US$691 billion
Nvidia experienced significant growth this quarter, fueled by an explosive surge in demand for generative AI and cloud computing, alongside the introduction of the RTX 40 series The company’s revenue from gaming and data centers saw a quarterly increase of 20% and 10%, respectively This propelled Nvidia’s Q1 revenue by 135%, reaching US$673 billion and elevating its market share to close to 20%
AMD faced several challenges, including inventory adjustments by some CSPs, weakened corporate expenditure due to macroeconomic influences, and a range of negative factors such as inventory modifications and an off-peak consumption period among PC-related clients These led to a 218% and 182% QoQ decline in the revenue of its data center and client divisions, respectively Although there was growth in the embedded and gaming sectors, which helped counterbalance some of the downturn, AMD’s Q1 revenue still experienced a 44% reduction, falling to US$535 billion
MediaTek—during a lull in smartphone production and amid ongoing inventory adjustments in power management ICs—witnessed a 20% and 13% decline in its smartphone and power management IC sectors, respectively Meanwhile, its business in smart edge platforms benefited from replenishment of TV-related inventory, ensuring the company’s revenue continued to remain on par with the previous quarter Even though the extent of the quarterly decline was less severe than in the previous quarter, it was still greater than the company’s remaining top 5 competitors, dropping MediaTek’s market share from 102% last quarter to 93% Consequently, MediaTek’s overall revenue in 1Q23 fell 88% to US$315 billion
Marvell’s Q1 revenue across all platforms was significantly impacted by adjustments in customer and channel inventories, leading to a QoQ decline of 71% and revenue falling to US$135 billion This dip occurred despite steady demand from servers, CSPs, and 5G-related wireless services When taking a look at variations in revenue across all platform, both consumer products and data centers suffered over a 10% decline Seasonal factors were to blame for consumer products; for data centers, it was due to a slowdown in demand from on-premise enterprise businesses
Novatek’s SoC and panel driver IC businesses experienced a QoQ growth of 24% and 2%, respectively, driven by the restocking of TV-related components This led to a 107% increase in the company’s Q1 revenue, bringing it up to US$791 million Novatek maintained its seventh position with a market share of 23%
Cirrus Logic, with over 80% of its revenue dependent on Apple alone, experienced a significant reduction in earnings due to factors such as a waning “new product” boost from the iPhone and a seasonal dip in sales Consequently, Cirrus Logic dropped out of the top ten The ninth and tenth positions were subsequently filled by WillSemi and power management IC giant MPS WillSemi reported a Q1 revenue of US$539 million, marking a QoQ growth of 13% MPS, however, witnessed a 19% QoQ decline, with its Q1 revenue standing at US$451 million
Looking ahead to the next quarter, although IC inventory clearance has been slower than anticipated, it has gradually rebounded to a healthier level in contrast to the period of excess inventory in 2H22 Simultaneously, the introduction of new products may stimulate positive growth for some IC design houses
Nvidia, in particular, is one to watch The rapid global deployment of AI chips—championed by CSPs and businesses, and stimulated by the rising popularity of generative AI technologies like ChatGPT—is expected to trigger a swift revenue surge Given these dynamics, it’s likely that Nvidia may rise to become the dominant IC design house in 2Q23 This potential growth could not only boost Nvidia but also inspire a resurgence among the top ten global IC design houses, leading to a recovery from the market downturn
