TrendForce anticipates 2024 to mark a significant expansion in edge AI applications, leveraging the groundwork laid by AI servers and branching into AI PCs and other terminal devices. The global AI server market—encompassing AI Training and AI Inference—is projected to exceed 1.6 million units, growing at an impressive rate of 40%. Additionally, CSPs are expected to ramp up their involvement in this sector.
Looking ahead to Q4, while suppliers are firmly set on price hikes, with DRAM contract prices expected to rise by approximately 13–18%, demand recovery will not be as robust as in previous peak seasons. Overall, while there is demand for stockpiling, procurement for the server sector remains tentative due to high inventory levels, suggesting limited growth in DRAM industry shipments for Q4.
TrendForce reports that consumer appetite for electronic products took a hit from high inflation, with global DRAM module sales in 2022 reaching US$17.3 billion—a 4.6% YoY decline. Revenue performance varied significantly among module makers due to the different domains they supply.
TrendForce reports that rising demand for AI servers has driven growth in HBM shipments. Combined with the wave of inventory buildup for DDR5 on the client side, the second quarter saw all three major DRAM suppliers experience shipment growth.
TrendForce reports that continued production cuts by DRAM suppliers have led to a gradual quarterly decrease in overall DRAM supply. Seasonal demand, on the other hand, is helping to mitigate inventory pressure on suppliers. TrendForce projects that the third quarter will see the ASP for DRAM converging towards a 0~5% decline.
TrendForce reports a dramatic 21.2% QoQ decline in Q1 revenues for the DRAM industry, bringing total revenue down to US$9.663 billion. This significant dip represents the third consecutive quarter where revenues have fallen.
SK hynix’s Wuxi fab was granted a one-year production license, but geopolitical risks and weak demand prompted the company to reduce wafer starts by about 30% per month in 2Q23, according to TrendForce's latest research.
TrendForce estimates, based on the plans of these three suppliers, that South Korea’s share of global DRAM capacity will continue to rise while China’s will decline YoY, dropping from 14% to 12% by 2025.