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Content:
1. 2023-2028F Global AI Server Market Supply and Demand Analysis
2. 2023-2028F Forecast for Global AI Server Market
3. Future Trends and Outlook for Key AI Server Supply Chain Development
4. Key Takeaways
TrendForce indicates that heightened geopolitical tensions are driving IDMs to seize ""China for China"" opportunities through collaborations with Chinese foundries. Driven by localization and cost-cutting demands in China's automotive market, European and Japanese IDMs like STMicroelectronics, Infineon, NXP, and Renesas are actively partnering with Chinese foundries such as SMIC and HHGrace to develop automotive MCUs and other products. This collaboration will help Chinese foundries enhance their technology platforms and achieve a more autonomous supply chain. These partnerships are expected to contribute to wafer output and revenue starting in 2H25 at the earliest.
TrendForce believes that US tariffs on Mexico will have a limited impact on Taiwanese server ODMs. While these ODMs have assembly plants along the US-Mexico border, they have been actively establishing SMT production lines in Southeast Asia since 2022 to address US-China trade tensions. Companies like Wistron, Inventec, and Foxconn have plants in Vietnam, Thailand, and other locations, allowing them to circumvent tariffs by shifting production. Therefore, the US tariffs on Mexico are not expected to significantly impact these ODMs.
TrendForce indicates that shipments of NVIDIA's GB200 rack solution may be delayed to 2Q25-3Q25 due to supply chain adjustments and optimizations. As NVIDIA's first AI server rack solution, the GB200 targets hyperscale CSPs, and its complex specifications pose challenges for the supply chain, particularly in high-speed interconnect design and thermal management. Volume shipments of the GB200 will drive growth for Grace CPUs and Blackwell GPUs, as well as the liquid cooling solutions market.
TrendForce indicates that the US Department of Commerce announced new export controls on December 2nd, further restricting China's access to advanced semiconductor technologies. The new measures tighten controls on advanced equipment, expand the Entity List, and adjust FDP rules, impacting the expansion of both advanced and mature node capacity for Chinese wafer fabs. Additionally, these measures will make it more challenging for Chinese equipment manufacturers to obtain critical foreign components.
TrendForce indicates that the latest US export controls will restrict direct exports of HBM to China. As Chinese ASIC developers face difficulties obtaining HBM from foreign suppliers, they will have to rely on domestic HBM solutions, significantly challenging China's ASIC industry growth. The expanded Entity List and controlled products list will also impact the development of domestic HBM products in China. Existing HBM suppliers are expected to adjust product and sales strategies, potentially expanding the supply to H20 AI chips or conventional DRAM.
TrendForce reports that global smartphone production grew by 7% QoQ in 3Q24, driven by peak seasonality and new iPhone launches, but remained flat YoY, indicating weak demand recovery. While the Android segment remained sluggish, Apple's new iPhones and early stocking for NVIDIA's GB200 supported mobile DRAM revenue growth. Smartphone production is expected to peak in Q4, but brands remain cautious with inventory due to uncertain demand outlook.
TrendForce reports that mobile DRAM revenue grew by 4.7% QoQ in 3Q24, supported by Apple's new devices and early stocking for NVIDIA's GB200. Despite weak demand from the Android camp, strong iOS demand and demand for NVIDIA's Grace CPU drove LPDDR5X shipments, improving suppliers' product mix. Mobile DRAM prices are expected to continue declining in Q4, limiting revenue growth.
TrendForce reports that global top 10 foundries achieved record-high revenue of US$34.9 billion in 3Q24, a 9.1% QoQ growth, driven by strong advanced node demand and policy stimulus in China. TSMC's market share reached around 65%, fueled by 3nm mass production. While advanced nodes are expected to remain strong in Q4, mature node demand will likely weaken. However, policy stimulus and year-end stocking in China will partially offset the decline.
TrendForce reports that server DRAM revenue continued to rise, growing by 15.6% QoQ and 162% YoY in 3Q24, driven by sustained demand for DDR5. Despite a slight decline in overall bit shipments, DDR5 price increases and shipment growth fueled revenue growth, accelerating the technology transition among the three major DRAM suppliers. Server DRAM demand is expected to continue growing in 2025, with DDR5 becoming the mainstream product.