"TrendForce reports the US now requires export licenses for AI chips like NVIDIA's H20 and AMD's MI308 to China, effective immediately. This forces NVIDIA and AMD to recognize potential multi-billion dollar losses. Aimed at preventing supercomputer use, licenses might still be granted for general AI applications. H20 China shipments could fall 20-30% in 2025, impacting the supply chain and risking downward revision for HBM demand (H20/MI308 originally ~5%). The restriction accelerates China's move to domestic AI solutions (e.g., Huawei Ascend), deepening US-China supply chain divergence.
"TrendForce reports US tariff policy shifts are impacting the memory market. A 90-day grace period announced in April spurred a Q2 surge in DRAM and NAND Flash orders as buyers and sellers rushed transactions to mitigate future uncertainty. This is expected to drive larger-than-anticipated Q2 contract price hikes. However, this demand pull-forward may weaken market momentum and subsequent price increases in H2 2025. The ultimate direction of US tariff policies remains the key variable for the H2 memory market supply, demand, and pricing.
"TrendForce reports that the introduction of new US tariffs, particularly the 20% ""fentanyl tariff"" on China-made goods, has significantly disrupted the smartphone industry, pushing brands to accelerate supply chain diversification away from China. Apple, which holds a dominant market share in the US and still sources a large portion of its US-bound phones from China, is expected to face the greatest challenges, despite its ongoing efforts to expand production in India.
In contrast, Samsung is better positioned during the 90-day grace period, benefiting from its pre-existing diversified production network in Vietnam and India. However, Lenovo (Motorola), with its heavy reliance on China, faces potential supply bottlenecks and heightened vulnerabilities.
While China remains the core global production hub—accounting for the majority of smartphone manufacturing—the shift toward diversification has become unavoidable. Nevertheless, this transition is not without its challenges, as it introduces higher costs and increased management complexity to global supply chains.
TrendForce reports Mexico remains a key location for server and AI production, particularly for US-bound orders, leveraging USMCA exemptions despite US tariff volatility. The new policy favors USMCA-compliant Mexican exports but restricts China-sourced components. ODMs adopt a ""division of labor"" strategy: Mexico for system assembly, Southeast Asia for modules. While direct tariff impact on AI servers appears manageable (due to US value clause & USMCA), policy uncertainty and economic risks could lead to conservative customer procurement. Mexico's role as a core server supply chain hub is strengthened short-term, but ongoing policy monitoring is crucial.
"TrendForce reports new US ""reciprocal tariffs"" suppress investment and consumer demand, prompting a downward revision of the 2025 global end-product outlook. While semiconductors are currently excluded, ambiguity surrounding the ""US value"" exemption clause increases supply chain costs and recession risks. This uncertainty is expected to weaken annual shipment momentum for AI systems, servers, smartphones, and notebooks. TrendForce presents two scenarios: a base case with slowed growth across product lines, and a worst case involving potential trade war escalation leading to severe recession and demand contraction.
As the global market expands its investment in AI computing and the development of related applications, humanoid robots are expected to become the largest AI application by market size. The introduction of torque and inertia sensing technology by manufacturers is critical for humanoid robots to walk flexibly and mimic human behavior in various scenarios. These two sensor systems need to work perfectly in sync, driving robots from simple programmed actions towards more natural human behavior. Humanoid robots need to operate in complex and variable environments and possess reaction speeds similar to humans. Their sensing systems must accurately perceive and respond to their surroundings. Currently, several robot manufacturers are specializing in improving their walking performance.
"TrendForce reports NVIDIA announced next-gen B300, Rubin, and Vera at GTC 2025, emphasizing memory, liquid-cooling, and CPO network advancements, shifting from GB NVL72 to VR NVL144 and Rubin Ultra NVL576. NVIDIA stresses scaling up, developing open-source software Dynamo through edge AI inference. Vera Rubin NVL144 TDP is expected to reach 200kW, making liquid-cooling inevitable. Rubin Ultra adopts 1024GB HBM4e, with technical challenges increasing supply risks. Vera CPU enhances core performance and supports upgraded memory specifications. NVIDIA promotes switch solutions based on silicon photonics/CPO. TSMC actively researches CPO, aiming to complete first-gen optical communication development in 2025, gradually improving AI chip performance.
"TrendForce reports TSMC's recent CoWoS capacity adjustment is due to prior customer overbooking, but CSP demand remains largely unchanged. 2025 CoWoS total demand is projected to double, with NVIDIA as the largest customer, shifting to CoWoS-L with Blackwell production. CSP ASICs are also key CoWoS demand drivers, with AWS advancing from Trainium2 to Trainium3 this year. However, DeepSeek's rise and potential GB rack supply issues could impact future CoWoS demand. Overall, recent CoWoS adjustments reflect actual needs, but end-customer AI server orders and TSMC's expansion plans remain largely unchanged.
"TrendForce reports AI drives higher NAND Flash transmission performance demands. Samsung, to seize AI edge computing opportunities, accelerates Hybrid Bonding adoption in its V9 (286L) product via YMTC patent authorization. While this technology shrinks die size, increases stack layers, and boosts wafer output, it requires significant Capex for new production lines. Due to NAND Flash oversupply and reduced Capex, Samsung scales down V9 production and postpones mass production to 2026. Short-term, Hybrid Bonding won't generate substantial output or market impact, nor change this year's price forecast. The NAND Flash industry faces the challenge of balancing competitiveness and avoiding oversupply.
"TrendForce reports NVIDIA plans to launch GB300 in Q2 2025, with GB300 racks ramping up in Q4 due to higher specifications requiring extended testing. GB200 remains the 2025 shipment mainstream, while GB300 systems need extra validation for design, power, and cooling differences. GB300 features upgrades in computing, memory, networking (800G CX8), and power, with independent cold plates. North American hyperscalers are key demand drivers, but DeepSeek's rise and ROI pressure may shift customers to ASICs or cost-effective solutions. Supply chain readiness and customer demand changes are crucial future observation points.
