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"TrendForce reports NVIDIA announced next-gen B300, Rubin, and Vera at GTC 2025, emphasizing memory, liquid-cooling, and CPO network advancements, shifting from GB NVL72 to VR NVL144 and Rubin Ultra NVL576. NVIDIA stresses scaling up, developing open-source software Dynamo through edge AI inference. Vera Rubin NVL144 TDP is expected to reach 200kW, making liquid-cooling inevitable. Rubin Ultra adopts 1024GB HBM4e, with technical challenges increasing supply risks. Vera CPU enhances core performance and supports upgraded memory specifications. NVIDIA promotes switch solutions based on silicon photonics/CPO. TSMC actively researches CPO, aiming to complete first-gen optical communication development in 2025, gradually improving AI chip performance.
"TrendForce reports TSMC's recent CoWoS capacity adjustment is due to prior customer overbooking, but CSP demand remains largely unchanged. 2025 CoWoS total demand is projected to double, with NVIDIA as the largest customer, shifting to CoWoS-L with Blackwell production. CSP ASICs are also key CoWoS demand drivers, with AWS advancing from Trainium2 to Trainium3 this year. However, DeepSeek's rise and potential GB rack supply issues could impact future CoWoS demand. Overall, recent CoWoS adjustments reflect actual needs, but end-customer AI server orders and TSMC's expansion plans remain largely unchanged.
"TrendForce reports AI drives higher NAND Flash transmission performance demands. Samsung, to seize AI edge computing opportunities, accelerates Hybrid Bonding adoption in its V9 (286L) product via YMTC patent authorization. While this technology shrinks die size, increases stack layers, and boosts wafer output, it requires significant Capex for new production lines. Due to NAND Flash oversupply and reduced Capex, Samsung scales down V9 production and postpones mass production to 2026. Short-term, Hybrid Bonding won't generate substantial output or market impact, nor change this year's price forecast. The NAND Flash industry faces the challenge of balancing competitiveness and avoiding oversupply.
"TrendForce reports NVIDIA plans to launch GB300 in Q2 2025, with GB300 racks ramping up in Q4 due to higher specifications requiring extended testing. GB200 remains the 2025 shipment mainstream, while GB300 systems need extra validation for design, power, and cooling differences. GB300 features upgrades in computing, memory, networking (800G CX8), and power, with independent cold plates. North American hyperscalers are key demand drivers, but DeepSeek's rise and ROI pressure may shift customers to ASICs or cost-effective solutions. Supply chain readiness and customer demand changes are crucial future observation points.
"TrendForce reports that due to the continuous growth in demand for LPDDR5X, coupled with supply failing to meet demand, prices for this type of mobile DRAM may rebound earlier than expected. In contrast, LPDDR4X has benefited from CXMT’s capacity expansion, successfully bridging the supply gap caused by production cuts from Korean and American manufacturers, thus maintaining relatively stable prices. Overall, the duration of this cycle of rising mobile DRAM prices will depend on the future performance of server demand and the strategic planning of DRAM suppliers in their product mixes.
The server market is experiencing robust growth, exceeding prior forecasts, fueled by surging AI-driven demand from North American and Chinese CSPs. This has led to increased server orders, particularly for AI servers and high-capacity DRAM modules. Geopolitical factors are also influencing procurement strategies. TrendForce projects a stabilization of server DRAM (DDR5) prices in Q2 2025, with potential price increases in Q3, driven by strong demand and limited supply, partly due to HBM production. Suppliers like SK hynix, Samsung, and Micron are adjusting production and pricing strategies accordingly. The overall outlook is positive, with server DRAM leading a potential broader DRAM market recovery. Key factors to watch include consumer demand recovery and HBM market dynamics.
TrendForce reports that server DRAM revenue grew by 8.0% QoQ and 84.4% YoY in 4Q24, driven by continued growth in DDR5 shipments and prices. While overall bit shipments saw a slight increase, individual supplier performance varied. Micron saw significant revenue growth due to aggressive shipments of DDR5 and HBM products. Looking ahead to 2025, AI server demand will continue to grow, but CSPs' slower transition to advanced processes may limit the supply of certain products.
TrendForce reports that global smartphone production grew by 9.2% QoQ in 4Q24, driven by Chinese local government subsidies and Apple's new device launches. Apple took the top spot with new model production, while Samsung declined due to intensified competition. For the full year 2024, global smartphone production increased by 4.9% YoY. Looking ahead to 2025, overall production is expected to maintain slight growth, despite uncertainties from a sluggish economy and political variables.
TrendForce reports that despite a 9.2% QoQ increase in global smartphone production in 4Q24, mobile DRAM demand declined due to conservative stocking strategies by Android brands and the end of peak stocking for new Apple devices. This resulted in shipment and revenue declines for suppliers. Mobile DRAM revenue is expected to continue declining in 1Q25 due to weak demand and falling prices.
TrendForce indicates that TSMC is expanding its US investment to US$165 billion, establishing six advanced process fabs, two advanced packaging plants, and an R&D center in Arizona. Geopolitical tensions have accelerated supply chain fragmentation, with countries actively building local capacity. The US share of global advanced foundry capacity is projected to rise to 22% by 2030, but this will also increase cost pressures, potentially leading to higher end-product prices.
