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TrendForce reports that the total revenue of the global top 10 foundries climbed 9.9% QoQ to a new record in 4Q24, driven by strong wafer shipments from advanced nodes (3nm and 5/4nm). TSMC maintained its leadership position with significant revenue growth from its 3nm node. Looking ahead to 2025, AI servers and edge AI will continue to be the key growth drivers, and the global top 10 foundries are expected to see further revenue gains.
TrendForce indicates that CSPs continue to actively invest in in-house AI ASICs, and the emergence of DeepSeek will further catalyze this trend. Although NVIDIA GPUs remain the mainstream for AI servers, both North American and Chinese CSPs are accelerating in-house ASIC development to improve performance, reduce costs, and lessen reliance on external suppliers. ASIC AI servers are projected to reach a 29% market share by 2028, with a market value of US$41 billion.
TrendForce reports that NVIDIA's data center business revenue exceeded 90% of its total revenue for the first time in FY4Q25, driven by the quarterly ramp-up of the Blackwell platform. Strong demand for high-end GPUs (including Hopper and Blackwell series) from hyperscale CSPs and enterprises fueled NVIDIA's overall revenue growth. The rise of DeepSeek will promote the development of edge AI inference servers and expand the scope of AI applications.
TrendForce has revised up its server shipment forecast for 2025 to nearly 7% YoY growth, driven by CSPs' expansion of cloud data centers and AI demand. North American CSPs are increasing orders for general-purpose servers, while Chinese CSPs are actively procuring AI servers. As a result, server ODM's motherboard SMT line utilization rates have risen significantly. The development of technologies like DeepSeek will further drive the growth of the AI server market.
TrendForce reports that the NAND Flash industry's revenue fell by 6.2% QoQ in 4Q24 due to continued inventory reductions by consumer electronics OEMs. Despite relatively stable demand for enterprise SSDs, overall market oversupply led to price declines. In 1Q25, the NAND Flash industry's revenue is projected to drop by more than 20% QoQ due to seasonality and suppliers' aggressive production cuts. Suppliers are actively adjusting capacity and product strategies to address market challenges.
TrendForce reports that the DRAM industry's revenue grew by 9.9% QoQ in 4Q24, driven by server DRAM and HBM sales. However, weak demand for PCs, smartphones, and consumer applications led to a decline in overall ASP. In 1Q25, due to seasonality and inventory adjustments, the overall DRAM ASP is projected to decline by 0-5%, potentially marking the largest quarterly price drop for 2025.
TrendForce reports that despite enterprise SSD order growth driven by NVIDIA's H-series in 4Q24, weak demand for consumer products dampened price increases for enterprise storage, resulting in a slight 0.5% QoQ decline in NAND Flash suppliers' overall enterprise SSD revenue. Enterprise SSD revenue is projected to drop by nearly 30% QoQ in 1Q25 due to suppliers' inventory reduction strategies. Suppliers are actively adjusting their product strategies to address market changes.
President Trump, after taking office, initiated a tariff war with China, Canada, and Mexico immediately, fulfilling the commitment he made in November 2024. This report will update the latest developments and impact analysis of this event. Additionally, Trump announced that high tariffs would be imposed on certain products, specifically targeting Taiwanese semiconductor products with a 100% tariff. If this policy is implemented, it could lead to skyrocketing chip prices in the US market and exacerbate the reorganization of the global supply chain, thus resulting in a profound impact on the technology and trade markets.
TrendForce analyzes that DeepSeek reduces AI deployment costs through optimized algorithms, creating new opportunities for SMEs. While the short-term impact on the memory market is limited, in the long term, DeepSeek will drive the popularization of edge AI applications, increasing DRAM capacity in PCs and smartphones, and boosting demand for high-performance NAND Flash like UFS 4.0. Concurrently, DeepSeek may reduce demand for high-end GPUs and HBM, but will increase demand for general-purpose server DRAM and enterprise SSDs.
TrendForce indicates that the updated US export controls announced on January 15th, 2025, will impact CXMT's process technology, wafer input, yield rates, and market deployment. US equipment suppliers have begun withdrawing personnel from CXMT's fabs since mid-February, affecting its 2025-2026 development plans. The new regulations cover all of CXMT's process nodes, impacting not only its G4 and G4B processes but also the already mass-produced G3 process. This will lead to a downward revision of CXMT's bit output and affect its position in the server DRAM and mobile DRAM markets. In the long term, CXMT's development in the LPDDR5X and DDR5 markets will be hindered.
