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TrendForce indicates that NVIDIA will adopt the SO-CAMM module design in its GB300 AI servers, replacing the initial onboard LPDDR5X solution for Grace CPUs. SO-CAMM offers advantages such as easy replacement and low power consumption, and it is expected to become the mainstream memory solution for NVIDIA's AI server CPUs. Module house Kingston, in addition to the three major suppliers, will also join in on the array of provision. The demand for mobile DRAM will grow rapidly with the climbing needs of AI servers, with related demand bits projected to increase by over 400% YoY in 2025.
TrendForce forecasts a 25% YoY growth in DRAM bit output in 2025, with diverging market conditions across different product types and applications. HBM demand remains strong, leading to tight supply; DDR5 and LPDDR5X show a relatively healthy supply-demand balance; while DDR4 and LPDDR4X face oversupply pressure and increased risk of price declines. Chinese suppliers' capacity expansion primarily impacts the domestic market, with limited impact on the global market. DRAM suppliers need to carefully plan capacity and optimize product mix to ensure profitability.
TrendForce forecasts that shipments of liquid cooling solutions will surge with the launch of NVIDIA's Blackwell and B300 series AI servers. The GB200 NVL72 is expected to adopt a liquid-to-air (L2A) cooling solution in 2025, with GB Rack AI servers projected to account for 41% of NVIDIA's AI server shipments, becoming a primary driver of the AI liquid cooling market. Taiwanese cooling suppliers such as Auras and AVC are actively expanding capacity to meet customer demand.
The report provides an in-depth exploration of the applications and growing demand for ABF substrates in AI servers, autonomous vehicles, and high-performance computing (HPC). Furthermore, it provides an analysis of the activities and future development trends of major Taiwanese manufacturers, with a focus on strong, sustained market growth beyond 2025.
TrendForce's report reveals that global channel market client SSD shipments grew by 3.7% YoY in 2023, driven by post-pandemic replacement demand and pre-emptive stocking in anticipation of NAND Flash price hikes. Kingston retained its top position with strong channel and brand advantages, followed by ADATA and Lexar. Despite a decrease in the number of Chinese brands, localization policies and national sentiment will enhance their future competitiveness. Future channel market SSD demand will focus on capacity expansion and performance upgrades, posing challenges to vendors as sales volumes decline.
TrendForce forecasts that global mature node capacity will grow by 6% YoY in 2025, with approximately 70% of the increase coming from Chinese foundries. Despite slow recovery in end-market demand, Chinese foundries are aggressively expanding capacity, intensifying market competition. Mature node utilization rates are projected to rise modestly to 75-80% in 2025, but upward price momentum will be limited. Chinese foundries' pricing strategies will impact the global market. Geopolitical factors are also driving foundries to diversify capacity deployments globally to ensure supply chain security.
TrendForce forecasts that NVIDIA will focus on promoting its Blackwell B300 series AI chips in 2025, with increased adoption of CoWoS-L packaging and liquid cooling solutions. The B300 series will replace Blackwell Ultra, with shipments expected to commence between Q2 and Q3 2025, primarily targeting performance-focused CSP customers and driving the development of HBM3e 12hi memory. Furthermore, NVIDIA will continue to promote its NVL72 Rack solution, further accelerating the adoption of liquid cooling in AI servers. Improvements in CoWoS-L production capacity and yield rates will also contribute to its wider adoption in AI chips.
1. AI Models and Technologies Used
2. The Relationship Between Computing and ICs
3. The Impact of AI on the IC Industry
4. AI Deployment by Major IC Design Companies
5. TRI’s View
TrendForce indicates that while Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have all sampled HBM3e 12hi products, challenges remain in yield ramp-up and qualification, leaving uncertainty over the risk of HBM oversupply in 2025. Despite aggressive TSV capacity expansion by DRAM suppliers, the mass production learning curve for HBM3e 12hi is long, and AI chips demand higher stability, creating uncertainty in actual capacity release. TrendForce maintains its forecast of HBM accounting for 10% of total DRAM bit output in 2025 and contributing over 30% of DRAM market value. HBM3e market share will be a key differentiator in DRAM suppliers' profitability.
TrendForce indicates that DDR4 and LPDDR4X prices are facing downward pressure due to sluggish consumer demand and CXMT's capacity expansion. Demand for DDR4 in PC, server, and consumer electronics markets is declining, while the smartphone market is experiencing an oversupply of LPDDR4X, mainly driven by CXMT's expansion. Samsung plans to cut LPDDR4X production and reduce prices to address the competition. The DRAM market is expected to face dual pressures of shrinking demand and oversupply in Q4, potentially leading to continued price declines.
