TrendForce’s latest research into the HBM market indicates that NVIDIA plans to diversify its HBM suppliers for more robust and efficient supply chain management. Samsung’s HBM3 (24GB) is anticipated to complete verification with NVIDIA by December this year. The progress of HBM3e, as outlined in the timeline below, shows that Micron provided its 8hi (24GB) samples to NVIDIA by the end of July, SK hynix in mid-August, and Samsung in early October.
TrendForce reports indicate a universal price increase for both DRAM and NAND Flash starting in the fourth quarter. DRAM prices, for instance, are projected to see a quarterly surge of about 3-8%.
TrendForce expects that memory suppliers will continue their strategy of scaling back production of both DRAM and NAND Flash in 2024, with the cutback being particularly pronounced in the financially struggling NAND Flash sector. Market demand visibility for consumer electronic is projected to remain uncertain in 1H24.
TrendForce highlights in its latest report that memory suppliers are boosting their production capacity in response to escalating orders from NVIDIA and CSPs for their in-house designed chips. These efforts include the expansion of TSV production lines to increase HBM output. Forecasts based on current production plans from suppliers indicate a remarkable 105% annual increase in HBM bit supply by 2024.
TrendForce reports that the HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market's dominant product for 2023 is HBM2e, employed by the NVIDIA A100/A800, AMD MI200, and most CSPs' (Cloud Service Providers) self-developed accelerator chips. As the demand for AI accelerator chips evolves, manufacturers plan to introduce new HBM3e products in 2024, with HBM3 and HBM3e expected to become mainstream in the market next year.
TrendForce reports that continued production cuts by DRAM suppliers have led to a gradual quarterly decrease in overall DRAM supply. Seasonal demand, on the other hand, is helping to mitigate inventory pressure on suppliers. TrendForce projects that the third quarter will see the ASP for DRAM converging towards a 0~5% decline.
TrendForce forecasts that global demand for HBM will experience almost 60% growth annually in 2023, reaching 290 million GB, with a further 30% growth in 2024.
First, DRAM suppliers will temporarily procure more PMICs from Monolithic Power Systems (MPS), which supplies PMICs without any issues. Second, supply will inevitably be affected in the short term as current DDR5 server DRAM production still uses older processes, which will lead to a convergence in the price decline of DDR5 server DRAM in 2Q23—from the previously estimated 15~20% to 13~18%.
At present, SK hynix is the only supplier that mass produces HBM3 products, and as a result, is projected to increase its market share to 53% as more customers adopt HBM3.
