Following in the wake of an earthquake that struck on April 3rd, TrendForce undertook an in-depth analysis of its effects on the DRAM industry, uncovering a sector that has shown remarkable resilience and faced minimal interruptions. Despite some damage and the necessity for inspections or disposal of wafers among suppliers, the facilities’ strong earthquake preparedness of the facilities has kept the overall impact to a minimum.
Additionally, significant price increases by suppliers since 4Q23 are expected to further diminish the momentum for inventory restocking. As a result, DRAM contract prices for the second quarter are projected to see a modest increase of 3–8%, says TrendForce.
TrendForce’s latest insights reveal a significant rebound in global smartphone production, marking the end of an eight-quarter slump in 3Q23. In a strategic year-end surge, brands amped up production to capture more market share, propelling Q4 smartphone output up 12.1% to reach 337 million units.
TrendForce reports that smartphone production—fueled by reduced channel inventories and spikes in seasonal demand—saw a significant uptick in 3Q23. Global smartphone production in the third quarter reached approximately 308 million units, marking a 13% QoQ increase. Although this figure has yet to reach pre-pandemic levels, it represents a 6.4% YoY increase, effectively ending an eight-quarter streak of annual declines.
TrendForce reports that Q4 contract prices for mobile DRAM are poised to see an increased quarterly rise of 13–18%. But that’s not all—NAND Flash is also joining the party, with contract prices of eMMC and UFS expected to climb by approximately 10–15% in the same quarter. This quarter is set to star mobile DRAM, traditionally the underperformer in profit margins compared to its DRAM counterparts, as it takes the lead in this round of price increases.
TrendForce reports indicate a universal price increase for both DRAM and NAND Flash starting in the fourth quarter. DRAM prices, for instance, are projected to see a quarterly surge of about 3-8%.
The Pro series, armed with smoother production cycles and the Pro Max’s exclusive periscope lens, is poised to be a consumer magnet and potentially propel the Pro series to constitute over 60% of Apple's new device production. However, with overall gloomy market sentiment and Huawei’s comeback in full swing, Apple’s total iPhone sales for the year may take a hit, expected to hover between 220 to 225 million units for a 5% YoY decline.
TrendForce reports global smartphone production has faced back-to-back quarterly declines. After plunging nearly 20% in 1Q23, second-quarter numbers dwindled further by approximately 6.6%, settling at a modest 272 million units. The first half of 2023 clocked in at a mere 522 million units—marking a 13.3% YoY decline and setting a ten-year low for both individual quarters and the first half of the year combined.
TrendForce expects that memory suppliers will continue their strategy of scaling back production of both DRAM and NAND Flash in 2024, with the cutback being particularly pronounced in the financially struggling NAND Flash sector. Market demand visibility for consumer electronic is projected to remain uncertain in 1H24.
