TrendForce’s latest investigations reveal groundbreaking developments in the NEV sector for 3Q23 Total sales of NEVs, including BEVs, PHEVs, and FCEVs, soared to 3455 million units and registered a substantial 281% YoY growth While BEVs accounted for about 70% of these sales, the standout performers this quarter were PHEVs, which saw a staggering YoY growth of 478%—contributing significantly to the momentum of the NEV market
In a close race among the top 10 BEV brands for Q3, Tesla and BYD were neck-and-neck as BYD trailed behind by less than a thousand units When sales of BYD group’s subsidiary brand Denza are included, BYD actually surpassed Tesla BYD’s diverse and extensive product line—ranging from its affordably priced Seagull model (CNY 70,000) to models catering to the CNY 150,000 to 200,000 price range—has enabled the brand to expand its market reach beyond first and second-tier cities
Despite Tesla’s continuous price cuts, its focus on the CNY 260,000 to 300,000 price range primarily targets consumers in first and second-tier cities This strategic difference between BYD and Tesla has led to a narrowing sales volume gap GAC Aion, Volkswagen, and SAIC-GM-Wuling maintained their 3rd, 4th, and 5th positions in the third quarter NIO, returning to the list after a hiatus, ranked 9th but continues to grapple with significant losses and layoffs For NIO and other emerging EV manufacturers, leveraging advanced technology for financial backing is a key strategy for survival
PHEVs, offering the convenience of two kinds of energy and resolving BEV charging challenges, continue to enjoy strong sales in China and the US, despite being excluded from the NEV category in some European countries BYD remains firmly in the lead in the PHEV market, actively expanding its brand and portfolio In addition to Denza, the group also includes its luxury EV car brand Yangwang and the rugged, off-road-focused Fangchengbao Snagging second place (10%), Li Auto achieved its first quarterly sales milestone of over 100,000 units as it benefitted from rising demand for large SUVs in China BMW and Mercedes-Benz, though steady and growing, face the risk of being overtaken if they do not expand rapidly enough
TrendForce notes that the NEV market, transitioning to a moderate growth phase due to a higher base and policy changes, remains a vital growth driver for the overall automotive market A 32% growth rate is projected for 2024, with total sales expected to reach 17 million units However, amid this optimistic growth, caution must be heeded due to signals that indicate the market is shifting, such as the delayed electrification of major American automakers, layoffs, and scaled-back investments in battery production
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://wwwtrendforcecom/news/
TrendForce will launch our offline seminar on the 14th of December (Thursday) at Tokyo Bay Ariake Washington Hotel, during the time of SEMICON Japan This event will mainly focus on the dynamics and foresees in the 2024 tech market, including the memory, the semiconductor industry between Japan and Taiwan, foundry capacity change, and automotive and consumer electronics sectors, for the visitors’ attendance, please contact alanchen@trendforcecom or angelaliao@trendforcecom; the media attendance please contact estherfeng@trendforcecom
TrendForce’s latest research indicates that despite a decrease in the CPI in Europe and the US this year, consumer budgets are still constrained due to the current high-interest-rate environment, and the real estate bubble in China has suppressed TV demand Moreover, a significant increase in TV panel prices this year has led brands to scale down promotional events, resulting in a decline in global TV shipments to 197 million units in 2023—a YoY decrease of 21%
TrendForce points out that TV shipments have shown QoQ growth this year However, the traditional peak Q4 season only saw a growth rate of 47% With just 5455 million units shipped and an overall decline of 17% YoY, this marks the lowest in nearly a decade of both growth momentum and shipment volumes
Since the easing of the pandemic in Europe and the US in 2H21, there has been a noticeable reduction in Q4 TV shipments in both 2022 and 2023 This suggests that the demand for TVs has been prematurely depleted, with changes in consumer habits and economic uncertainty further hindering shipment growth
Top five brands’ market share projected to increase by 17 percentage points, Hisense and TCL emerge as biggest winners
Samsung Electronics continues to lead in TV shipments this year, with an estimated 363 million units—a 98% decrease YoY and a significant market share reduction of 12 percentage points to 185% Affected by high inflation in Europe and America, Samsung faced challenges in shipping mid to high-end products, with a decline in shipments of 8K, Mini LED, and QLED TVs However, QD OLED TVs, supported by the group’s SDC panels, have experienced a 153% increase in shipments to 890,000 units, boosting Samsung’s OLED TV market share to 166%
Hisense and TCL, ranked second and third, have achieved shipments of 27 million and 262 million units, up 124% and 163% YoY, respectively Both Chinese brands have successfully raised their shipments volumes and market shares through low-cost export market strategies and localized production Conversely, LG Electronics faced a downturn in OLED TV sales, with a nearly 30% YoY decline, leading to a 74% decrease in overall shipments to 2291 million units
TV demand unclear for 2024, shipment volumes remain variable
In 2024, TV manufacturers aim to improve profitability by increasing the proportion of large-sized products and accelerating the phasing out of loss-making models The Paris Olympics and UEFA Euro 2024 are expected to support a slight growth of 02% in global TV shipments to 197 million units next year
However, as panel makers adopt production and pricing control strategies, TV panel prices are unlikely to fall below cash costs TrendForce believes this will restrict the growth of generic brands and pose a significant challenge to any substantial increase in global TV shipments Moreover, if the global economy worsens due to geopolitical conflicts or other unforeseen factors, there is a potential risk of a decline in total TV shipments for 2024
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email the Sales Department at DR_MI@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit https://wwwtrendforcecom/news/
TrendForce’s latest research into the HBM market indicates that NVIDIA plans to diversify its HBM suppliers for more robust and efficient supply chain management Samsung’s HBM3 (24GB) is anticipated to complete verification with NVIDIA by December this year The progress of HBM3e, as outlined in the timeline below, shows that Micron provided its 8hi (24GB) samples to NVIDIA by the end of July, SK hynix in mid-August, and Samsung in early October
Given the intricacy of the HBM verification process—estimated to take two quarters—TrendForce expects that some manufacturers might learn preliminary HBM3e results by the end of 2023 However, it’s generally anticipated that major manufacturers will have definite results by 1Q24 Notably, the outcomes will influence NVIDIA’s procurement decisions for 2024, as final evaluations are still underway
NVIDIA continues to dominate the high-end chip market, expanding its lineup of advanced AI chips
As 2024 rolls around, a number of AI chip suppliers are pushing out their latest product offerings NVIDIA’s current high-end AI lineup for 2023, which utilizes HBM, includes models like the A100/A800 and H100/H800 In 2024, NVIDIA plans to refine its product portfolio further New additions will include the H200, using 6 HBM3e chips, and the B100, using 8 HBM3e chips NVIDIA will also integrate its own Arm-based CPUs and GPUs to launch the GH200 and GB200, enhancing its lineup with more specialized and powerful AI solutions
Contrastingly, AMD’s 2024 focus is on the MI300 series with HBM3, transitioning to HBM3e for the next-gen MI350 The company is expected to start HBM verification for MI350 in 2H24, with a significant product ramp-up projected for 1Q25
Intel Habana launched the Gaudi 2 in 2H22, which utilizes 6 HBM2e stacks Its upcoming Gaudi 3—slated for mid-2024 —is expected to continue using HBM2e but will be upgraded to 8 stacks TrendForce believes that NVIDIA, with its cutting-edge HBM specifications, product readiness, and strategic timeline, is poised to maintain a leading position in the GPU segment, and, by extension, in the competitive AI chip market
HBM4 may turn toward customization beyond commodity DRAM
HBM4 is expected to launch in 2026, with enhanced specifications and performance tailored to future products from NVIDIA and other CSPs Driven by a push toward higher speeds, HBM4 will mark the first use of a 12nm process wafer for its bottommost logic die (base die), to be supplied by foundries This advancement signifies a collaborative effort between foundries and memory suppliers for each HBM product, reflecting the evolving landscape of high-speed memory technology
With the push for higher computational performance, HBM4 is set to expand from the current 12-layer (12hi) to 16-layer (16hi) stacks, spurring demand for new hybrid bonding techniques HBM4 12hi products are set for a 2026 launch, with 16hi models following in 2027
Finally, TrendForce notes a significant shift toward customization demand in the HBM4 market Buyers are initiating custom specifications, moving beyond traditional layouts adjacent to the SoC, and exploring options like stacking HBM directly on top of the SoC While these possibilities are still being evaluated, TrendForce anticipated a more tailored approach for the future of the HBM industry
This move toward customization, as opposed to the standardized approach of commodity DRAM, is expected to bring about unique design and pricing strategies, marking a departure from traditional frameworks and heralding an era of specialized production in HBM technology
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email the Sales Department at SR_MI@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit https://wwwtrendforcecom/news/
TrendForce will launch our offline seminar on the 14th of December (Thursday) at Tokyo Bay Ariake Washington Hotel, during the time of SEMICON Japan This event will mainly focus on the dynamics and foresees in the 2024 tech market, including the memory, the semiconductor industry between Japan and Taiwan, foundry capacity change, and automotive and consumer electronics sectors, for the visitors’ attendance, please contact alanchen@trendforcecom or angelaliao@trendforcecom; the media attendance please contact estherfeng@trendforcecom
NVIDIA’s most recent FY3Q24 financial reports reveal record-high revenue coming from its data center segment, driven by escalating demand for AI servers from major North American CSPs However, TrendForce points out that recent US government sanctions targeting China have impacted NVIDIA’s business in the region Despite strong shipments of NVIDIA’s high-end GPUs—and the rapid introduction of compliant products such as the H20, L20, and L2—Chinese cloud operators are still in the testing phase, making substantial revenue contributions to NVIDIA unlikely in Q4 Gradual shipments increases are expected from the first quarter of 2024
The US ban continues to influence China’s foundry market as Chinese CSPs’ high-end AI server shipments potentially drop below 4% next year
TrendForce reports that North American CSPs like Microsoft, Google, and AWS will remain key drivers of high-end AI servers (including those with NVIDIA, AMD, or other high-end ASIC chips) from 2023 to 2024 Their estimated shipments are expected to be 24%, 186%, and 163%, respectively, for 2024 Chinese CSPs such as ByteDance, Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent (BBAT) are projected to have a combined shipment share of approximately 63% in 2023 However, this could decrease to less than 4% in 2024, considering the current and potential future impacts of the ban
China to expand investment in proprietary ASICs and develop general-purpose AI chips due to limited high-end AI chip demand
Facing the risk of expanded restrictions arising from the US ban, TrendForce believes Chinese companies will continue to buy existing AI chips in the short term NVIDIA’s GPU AI accelerator chips remain a top priority—including existing A800 or H800 inventories and new models like H20, L20, and L2—designed specifically for the Chinese market following the ban In the long term, Chinese CSPs are expected to accelerate, with Alibaba’s T-Head and Baidu being particularly active in this area, relying on foundries like TSMC and Samsung for production
At the same time, major Chinese AI firms, such as Huawei and Biren, will continue to develop general-purpose AI chips to provide AI solutions for local businesses Beyond developing AI chips, these companies aim to establish a domestic AI server ecosystem in China TrendForce recognizes that a key factor in achieving success will come from the support of the Chinese government through localized projects, such as those involving Chinese telecom operators, which encourage the adoption of domestic AI chips
Edge AI servers: A potential opportunity for Chinese firms amid high-end AI chip development constraints
A notable challenge in developing high-end chips in China is the limited access to advanced manufacturing technology This is particularly true for Huawei, which remains on the US Entity List and relies on domestic foundries like SMIC for production Despite SMIC’s advancements, it faces similar issues created by the US ban—including difficulties in obtaining key advanced manufacturing equipment and potential yield issues TrendForce believes that in trying to overcome these limitations, China may find opportunities in the mid to low-range edge AI server market These servers, with lower AI computational demands, cater to applications like commercial ChatBOTs, video streaming, internet platforms, and automotive assistance systems They might not be fully covered by US restrictions, presenting a possible growth direction for Chinese firms in the AI market
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email the Sales Department at SR_MI@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit https://wwwtrendforcecom/news/
TrendForce will launch our offline seminar on the 14th of December (Thursday) at Tokyo Bay Ariake Washington Hotel, during the time of SEMICON Japan This event will mainly focus on the dynamics and foresees in the 2024 tech market, including the memory, the semiconductor industry between Japan and Taiwan, foundry capacity change, and automotive and consumer electronics sectors, for the visitors’ attendance, please contact alanchen@trendforcecom or angelaliao@trendforcecom; the media attendance please contact estherfeng@trendforcecom
TrendForce reports a significant 89% decrease in shipments of smartphone camera modules in 2023, totaling around 4065 billion units This downturn is attributed to a decline in smartphone production and evolving trends in camera integration by major brands However, after a year of depleting inventories, a rebound in smartphone production is expected in 2024, potentially leading to a resurgence in the smartphone camera module market with an estimated 3% YoY growth to approximately 4171 billion units
2023 has seen the smartphone sector grappling with slower-than-expected post-pandemic recovery in China and rampant global inflation Some brands have scaled back production to counteract tepid customer demand, resulting in a year-on-year decline TrendForce notes a shift in focus toward enhancing main cameras to 50MP and reducing rear cameras to three in mid-range models, a strategy embraced by Samsung and also adopted by OPPO, Vivo, Honor, and Transsion
However, TrendForce believes these adjustments in camera module configurations are influenced by consumer preferences Apple’s 2023 iPhone 15 Pro Max, for instance, with its significant upgrade to a tetraprism telephoto lens module offering 5x optical zoom, has boosted consumer interest and is likely to drive similar upgrades among competing brands
The evolution of smartphones toward sleeker designs presents a challenge due to limited internal space, restricting the inclusion of thicker lenses and larger sensors This limitation can cause issues such as noise artifacts, blurring, and overexposure in photos Consequently, software assistance for hardware is becoming an essential solution to enhance camera performance, with AI image enhancement algorithms playing a pivotal role in optimizing image quality
TrendForce anticipates that the adoption of AI will chart a new course for improving smartphone camera performance Cognitive ISP technology powered by AI, which performs real-time semantic segmentation and individual optimization of elements within a frame (ex faces, hair, glasses, or objects), is poised to revolutionize photo quality This enhancement occurs instantly as the photo is taken, streamlining the imaging process and negating the need for post-editing
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://wwwtrendforcecom/news/
TrendForce will launch our offline seminar on the 14th of December (Thursday) at Tokyo Bay Ariake Washington Hotel, during the time of SEMICON Japan This event will mainly focus on the dynamics and foresees in the 2024 tech market, including the memory, the semiconductor industry between Japan and Taiwan, foundry capacity change, and automotive and consumer electronics sectors, for the visitors’ attendance, please contact alanchen@trendforcecom or angelaliao@trendforcecom; the media attendance please contact estherfeng@trendforcecom
