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Press Releases
Bucking Trends NEV Market Grew in 1Q22 with Global Sales Exceeding 2 Million Units, Says TrendForce

2022/05/16

Emerging Technologies

According to TrendForce data, total sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs including battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles) in 1Q22 was 2004 million units, an annual growth rate of 80% Battery electric vehicles (BEV) demonstrated the strongest growth with sales reaching 1508 million units Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) sold 493,000 units Growth in NEV sales did not come easy, as global auto market sales (regardless of powertrain type) fell by 7% YoY in 1Q22 due to factors such as the chip shortage, Russian-Ukrainian war, and China's pandemic lockdown and prevention measures In terms of BEV brands, Tesla’s sales in 1Q22 exceeded 310,000 units, ranking first with a market share of 205% Chinese automaker BYD ranked second with 143,000 units and a market share of 95% BYD announced in April that it would stop producing fossil-fueled vehicles and transform fully into a NEV manufacturer Its BEV sales rose sharply by 271% in 1Q22 compared to the same period last year Wuling, a subsidiary of SAIC-GM, has been ranked second since the launch of the Wuling Hongguang MINI in 2020 but dropped to third place in 1Q22 The main contributor to this was the multitude of models positioned as miniature and low-priced launched in the past year such as the Chery Ant and Changan Benben As similar products arrived on the market, sales competition hindered growth In terms of PHEVs, BYD once again broke its quarterly sales record Sales volume in 1Q22 reached 142,000 units, with a market share of 288% As more PHEV models gradually appear in the market, it has become increasingly more difficult to capture a large market share It is worth noting that the sales volume of PHEVs in the European market was lower in 1Q22 both when compared with the same period last year and when compared to 4Q21, affected the performance of some European brands TrendForce expects that most automakers will adopt a strategy of prioritizing the production of EVs Therefore, continued growth in the sale of NEVs is expected in 2022 However, automakers will be under greater cost pressure this year In particular, the Russian-Ukrainian war has greatly increased the cost of power batteries This has caused automakers to increase their prices Some countries including China will withdraw car purchase subsidies which dampens the market for low-priced mini-cars that previously supported the rapid growth of NEVs Factors such as global inflation will become variables in the future growth momentum of NEVs For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Lingering Pandemic Vexes Economic Performance, 2022 Smartphone Production Volume Reduced to 1.333 Billion Units, Says TrendForce

2022/05/11

Consumer Electronics

According to TrendForce research, global smartphone production volume in 1Q22 was 310 million units, a QoQ decrease of 128%, primarily attributed to ongoing inventory adjustments in various distribution channels performed by a number of brands and the cyclical off-season, which led to relatively weak production performance in 1Q22 In 2Q22, a resurgence of the pandemic in the world's largest consumer market, China, exacerbated the drop in global 2Q22 mobile phone production to 309 million units However, compared to the same period in 2021, when a resurgent pandemic in India and Southeast Asia caused a sharp drop in total production, mobile phone production grew slightly by 07% TrendForce further indicates that the war between Russia and Ukraine continues to exacerbate the rising global inflation issue High inflation means that personal disposable income will shrink and will inevitably lead to prolonged replacement cycles and reduced purchasing budgets for individual devices Summarizing 2022, corrections in 1H22 were primarily due to the impact of China's lockdowns on the economy while corrections in 2H22 highlight the inflation crisis The total production forecast for the entire year will be revised down to 1333 billion units and there is still room for downward revisions in the future Due to China's economic headwinds, shipments fall again to 283 million, an annual decline of nearly 13% From a regional perspective, due to China’s insistence on maintaining a strict "dynamic zero-COVID" policy and the recent festering of the pandemic, economic performance is also facing greater downward pressure and the demand for smartphones has likewise cooled in the face of pandemic prevention measures Overall, the sales market share of China's smartphone market still ranks first in the world but, due to the impact of the pandemic, its market share has dropped from 242% last year to 211% this year while the corresponding total shipment forecast fell from 325 million units last year to 283 million units, an annual decline of approximately 129% Although the impact of the pandemic in the remainder of the region has been comparatively blunted, in the face of a rising inflation crisis, even the overpopulated Indian market will be unable to support substantial growth From the perspective of the 2022 national shipment share ranking forecast, the top three positions will be held by China, India, and the United States, accounting for a 211%, 131%, and 110% share, respectively For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Demand for Consumer Electronics Sluggish, NAND Flash Wafer Pricing Leads Downturn in May, Says TrendForce

2022/05/10

Semiconductors

According to TrendForce research, looking at NAND Flash wafers, the pricing of which more sensitively reflects the market, suppliers are increasingly motivated to cut prices in exchange for sales due to weak retail demand since March and a more conservative outlook for shipments of other end products The price of NAND Flash wafers is expected to begin falling in May and the supply of NAND Flash will gradually overtake demand in 2H22 The price decline of NAND Flash wafers in 3Q22 may reach 5~10% At the same time, TrendForce indicates that February’s contamination incident at Kioxia was expected to tighten the market in 2Q22 and 3Q22 However, as a consequence of rising inflation and the war between Russia and Ukraine, market demand for consumer products in the traditional peak season of the second half of the year is trending conservative and the prices of client SSD, eMMC, and UFS in 3Q22 will be flat compared to 2Q22, breaking from the original expectation that prices may rise In terms of enterprise SSDs, as demand for data centers remains strong, no significant correction in demand has yet been observed However, as the overall NAND Flash market gradually moves into oversupply, prices will only grow slightly by approximately 0~5% in 3Q22 Weakening demand in a period of unabated production expansion, NAND Flash may face oversupply in 2H22 From the perspective of demand, due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, rising inflation, and the pandemic in China, overall demand for consumer electronics is weak Demand for Chromebooks dwindled rapidly at the beginning of 2022 as exogenous demand from the pandemic disappeared In terms of conventional notebooks, the situation with commercial models and consumer models present a divergence Demand for commercial notebooks is benefiting from a return to the office occurring in many countries, while the opposite is true for consumer notebooks Therefore, overall demand for notebooks in 2022 will be lower compared to demand in 2021 In terms of smart phones, the production volume of Chinese brands has been suppressed due to China’s flailing against the pandemic and government lockdowns stemming from a continued insistence on a dynamic zero-COVID policy, resulting in continuous downward revisions of global smart phone production for 2022 In terms of supply, Samsung is focusing on substantial future growth in the enterprise SSD sector and continues to maintain its original capacity expansion plan, especially after its NAND production line was derailed due to the Xi'an lockdown at the end of last year In order to stabilize future plant operations, the capacity of its P2L fab in South Korea continues to increase Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) will also expand its wafer input plan in 2H22 Since the 128L yield rate has reached the company's goal and it had successfully broken into the tier 1 smartphone supply chain in 1H22, YMTC will also accelerate production at its second factory in Wuhan Therefore, TrendForce indicates, since an overall weakness in demand will linger in 2022 yet certain manufacturers will maintain a pattern of expanding production, the NAND Flash market will face oversupply in 2H22 As mentioned above, the prices of various products will be flat or experience reduced growth in 3Q22 For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Inflation Suppresses Consumer Products Demand, 2022 Global TV shipments Revised Down to 212 Million Units, Says TrendForce

2022/04/26

Consumer Electronics

According to TrendForce investigations, global TV shipments will reach 4726 million units in 1Q22, down 20% QoQ Driven primarily by the Russian-Ukrainian war, prices of raw materials such as crude oil and natural gas have risen, while the recent breakout of the Omicron strain of the pandemic in China has incited repeated no warning attempts at enacting dynamic zero-COVID, which has hindered the flow of logistics, hiked freight rates, and taken as a whole, exacerbated existing global inflation woes Consumers with limited disposable income have started to cut back on non-essentials with TV sales bearing the brunt Looking at the three major TV sales regions of North America, Europe, and China in 1Q22, high inflation in Europe and the United States has led to a sharp 20% drop in demand In China, due the festering pandemic, numerous cities have been locked down, while unemployment is spiking, logistics are impeded, and prices soar TV product sales are at a complete disadvantage and the demand in 1Q22 dropped by 15~20% TrendForce further points out, originally Chinese brands banked on low 2Q22 panel prices and not being required to shoulder expensive shipping costs in the domestic market, expecting that the 618 anniversary promotional period would inject fresh enthusiasm into the market and boost annual shipments However, now that China's TV sales are disrupted by the pandemic, any hope riding on TV brands’ only large-scale promotional event in the first half of the year may have been dashed In addition, Q3 was when brands stocked up in previous years for Black Friday and Christmas season promotions in Europe and the United States However, this year’s FIFA World Cup was postponed to November, resulting in overlapping promotional schedules, which may curb sales Ocean freight remains expensive this year, with additional costs increasing with greater item size, which is not conducive to the rollout of branded manufacturers’ large-scale promotional activities in 2H22 Therefore, TrendForce estimates that this year's TV shipments will drop further to 212 million units, for an annual growth of only 1%, and there exists additional potential for downward risk Demand in Europe and US misses estimates, international brands drop orders, and 2Q22 decline in TV panel prices expands further The top two leading TV brands, Samsung and LG Electronics, are mainly sold in North America and Europe Therefore, since TV sales in Europe and the United States declined by 20% in 1Q22, this had the greatest impact on these two leading brands Samsung Electronics shipped 109 million TVs in 1Q22, down 31% QoQ while LG Electronics shipped 653 million TVs in 1Q22, down 118% QoQ and down 64% YoY Affected by weak terminal demand, the two major brands revised their panel purchase orders in late March Samsung's purchasing volume in 1Q22 was revised down 75% and fell by 95% in 2Q22 LG Electronics primarily focused on reducing purchase orders in 2Q22 and purchasing volume decline is expected to exceed 20% TrendForce specifically states, major international manufacturers have recently revised their orders in succession Although Chinese brands have yet to see a significant reduction in orders, if 618 promotions are disappointing, it cannot be ruled out panel procurements will begin to fall in mid-to-late Q2 Although branded manufacturers significantly revised TV panel orders downward in 2Q22, panel manufacturers have not seen a significant reduction in utilization rate, which will depress the price of panels below 55 inches (inclusive) in a sustained freefall while the prices of large size panels above 65 inches (inclusive) will continue to deteriorate Samsung Electronics delays launch of WOLEDs, styming 2022 OLED TV shipment performance This year, the supply of OLED TV panels has benefited from LG Display's expanded production capacity of 85-generation OLED TVs in Guangzhou As supply increased, LG Display also improved product specifications and prices, but this led to Samsung Electronics delaying the verification and launch schedule of white OLED products Not only has Samsung Electronics' 2022 market share of OLED TVs shrunk from 15% at the beginning of the year to 64%, but global OLED TV shipments will be revised down to 779 million units this year, with an annual growth rate of 17% For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Localization of Chip Manufacturing Rising. Taiwan to Control 48% of Global Foundry Capacity in 2022, Says TrendForce

2022/04/25

Semiconductors

According to TrendForce, Taiwan is crucial to the global semiconductor supply chain, accounting for a 26% market share of semiconductor revenue in 2021, ranking second in the world Its IC design and packaging & testing industries also account for a 27% and 20% global market share, ranking second and first in the world, respectively Firmly in the pole position, Taiwan accounts for 64% of the foundry market In addition to TSMC possessing the most advanced process technology at this stage, foundries including UMC, Vanguard, and PSMC also have their own process advantages Under the looming shadow of chip shortages caused by the pandemic and geopolitical turmoil in the past two years, various governments have quickly awakened to the fact that localization of chip manufacturing is necessary to avoid being cut off from chip acquisition due to logistics difficulties or cross-border shipment bans Taiwanese companies have ridden this wave to become partners that governments around the world are eager to invite to set up factories in various locales Currently, 8-inch and 12-inch foundries are dominated by 24 fabs in Taiwan, followed by China, South Korea, and the United States Looking at new factories plans post 2021, Taiwan still accounts for the largest number of new fabs, including six new plants in progress, followed in activity by China and the United States, with plans for four and three new fabs, respectively Due to the advantages and uniqueness of Taiwanese fabs in terms of advanced processes and certain special processes, they accepted invitations to set up plants in various countries, unlike non-Taiwanese foundries who largely still build fabs locally Therefore, Taiwanese manufacturers have successively announced factory expansions at locations including the United States, China, Japan, and Singapore in addition to Taiwan in consideration of local client needs and technical cooperation The focus of Taiwan's key technologies and production expansion remains in Taiwan, accounting for 44% of global wafer production capacity by 2025 In 2022, Taiwan will account for approximately 48% of global 12-inch equivalent wafer foundry production capacity Only looking at 12-inch wafer production capacity with more than 50% market share, the market share of advanced processes below 16nm (inclusive) will be as high as 61% However, as Taiwanese manufacturers expand their production globally, TrendForce estimates that the market share held by Taiwan's local foundry capacity will drop slightly to 44% in 2025, of which the market share of 12-inch wafer capacity will fall to 47% and advanced manufacturing processes to approximately 58% However, Taiwanese foundries’ recent production expansion plans remain focused on Taiwan including TSMC's most advanced N3 and N2 nodes, while companies such as UMC, Vanguard, and PSMC retain several new factory projects in Hsinchu, Miaoli, and Tainan TrendForce believes, since Taiwanese foundries have announced plans to build fabs in China, the United States, Japan, and Singapore, and foundries in numerous countries are also actively expanding production, Taiwan's market share of foundry capacity will drop slightly in 2025 However, semiconductor enclaves do not come together quickly The integrity of a supply chain relies on the synergy among upstream (raw materials, equipment, and wafers), midstream (IP design services, IC design, manufacturing, and packaging and testing), and downstream (brands and distributors) sectors Taiwan has advantages in talent, geographical convenience and industrial enclaves Therefore, Taiwanese foundries still tend to focus on Taiwan for R&D and production expansion Looking at the existing blueprint for production expansion, Taiwan will still control 44% of the world's foundry capacity by 2025 and as much as 58% of the world's capacity for advanced processes, continuing its dominance of the global semiconductor industry For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

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