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Press Releases
Indonesia's Export Restrictions on Nickel Likely to Intensify Global Shortage of Raw Materials for NEV Batteries, Says TrendForce

2021/11/26

Energy

As the global automotive industry picks up the pace of electrification, there will be a corresponding increase in the demand for nickel, which is a key ingredient for automotive batteries, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations Incidentally, Indonesia has recently made gradual announcements indicating that it intends to terminate the export of such unprocessed ores as nickel, copper, and tin, and this restriction will likely have an impact on the global supply chains in which these materials are used Indonesia possesses the world’s highest volume of nickel reserves (which refer to the total availability of nickel in the country), at 21 million tonnes, representing more than 20% of the global total With regards to nickel production (which refers to the actual amount of nickel that is mined), on the other hand, Indonesia accounts for more than 30% of the global total As such, Indonesia is the primary source of raw materials for NEV (new energy vehicle) batteries manufactured by countries such as China TrendForce further indicates that, as a key upstream material for EV battery manufacturing, nickel is primarily used for raising the energy density of NCM batteries As EV battery development progresses towards increasingly high energy densities, the direction of cathode development has gradually trended towards nickel-rich NCM as the mainstream Hence, the consumption of nickel in EV battery cathodes has been undergoing a steady growth As the volume of NEV sales increases, so has the installation volume of EV batteries Take the Chinese automotive market as an example; cumulative NEV sales for the January-July period this year surpassed the annual sales volume for 2020 TrendForce expects annual NEV sales in China to surpass 33 million units this year (including both heavy and light vehicles), representing an over 140% YoY growth Likewise, cumulative EV battery installation in China for the January-October period reached 1075 GWh, a 1681% YoY increase, while automotive NCM battery installation reached 541 GWh, accounting for 503% of the total EV battery installation These figures would suggest that the growth of the NEV market in China has generated a definite increase in the demand for nickel TrendForce believes that the NEV market will continue to expand its demand for battery materials, including primarily nickel, for several reasons: First, the penetration rate of NEVs has been rising at an increasingly rapid pace Second, EV cathode development has been trending towards a nickel-rich composition Finally, nickel-rich NCM materials are suitable for fulfilling the automotive market’s demand for high energy density batteries Indonesia’s decision to terminate the export of certain unprocessed ores may not have an impact on the global supply chains in the short run However, going forward, this decision will likely transform the supply situation of the nickel industry, force battery manufacturers or nickel chloride suppliers to establish facilities in Indonesia, and eventually raise the added value of products related to the Indonesian nickel industry Nevertheless, whether the production capacity generated by the establishment of facilities in Indonesia can satisfy the market demand in time will depend on not only the quality of Indonesia’s infrastructures and electricity supply, but also domestic political environments, availability of labor force, and other external factors Therefore, TrendForce believes that, in the long run, Indonesia’s export restrictions on raw materials will likely exacerbate the shortage of nickel and subsequently of EV batteries, thereby potentially hindering the rapid advancement of the EV industry For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Green Energy Research, please click here, or email Ms Faye Wang from the Sales Department at fayewang@trendforcecn For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
NAND Flash Revenue Rises by 15% QoQ for 3Q21 Thanks to Demand from Smartphone and Data Center Markets, Says TrendForce

2021/11/24

Semiconductors

The growth of the NAND Flash market in 3Q21 was primarily driven by strong demand from the data center and smartphone industries, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations More specifically, NAND Flash suppliers’ hyperscaler and enterprise clients kept up their procurement activities that began in 2Q21 in order to deploy products based on new processor platforms Major smartphone brands, on the other hand, likewise expanded their NAND Flash procurement activities during the quarter as they prepared to release their new flagship models As such, clients in both server and smartphone industries made significant contributions to the revenue growth of the NAND Flash industry for 3Q21 At the same time, however, suppliers also warned that orders from PC OEMs began showing signs of decline On the whole, the industry’s quarterly total NAND Flash bit shipment increased by nearly 11% QoQ for 3Q21, and the overall NAND Flash ASP rose by nearly 4% QoQ for the same quarter Thanks to rising prices and expanding shipments, the quarterly total NAND Flash revenue increased by 15% QoQ to a new record high of US$188 billion in 3Q21 Moving into 4Q21, the impact of the ongoing component gaps has widened to numerous application segments of the NAND Flash market as the capacity crunch in the foundry market remains unresolved Currently, NAND Flash components are in abundance relative to other kinds of key components For OEMs and ODMs, the differences between the NAND Flash inventory level and the inventory levels of other components have been growing over the past several months Therefore, they have to scale back orders and reduce stock for NAND Flash As inventory adjustments are happening, NAND Flash contract prices will start to drop and thus bring about an end to the several quarters of strong revenue growth enjoyed by suppliers Samsung Owing to procurement demand from hyperscalers and smartphone brands, the NAND Flash market generally remained in shortage in 3Q21, thereby driving up Samsung’s ASP by 10% QoQ Even so, Samsung’s NAND Flash bit shipment increased by only about 5% QoQ due to weakening demand from PC OEMs and low inventory levels of certain other components carried by Samsung’s clients Samsung’s NAND Flash revenue for 3Q21 reached US$651 billion, a 165% QoQ increase Kioxia Although orders from PC OEMs began to wane, Kioxia still benefitted from orders from its major smartphone and data center clients in 3Q21, during which Kioxia’s NAND Flash bit shipment underwent a major QoQ increase exceeding 15% As the NAND Flash market remained in a shortage situation, Kioxia’s ASP increased by about 4% QoQ, resulting in a revenue of US$364 billion, which represents a 208% QoQ increase and the highest single-quarter revenue in Kioxia’s history SK hynix Among all NAND Flash suppliers in 3Q21, SK hynix registered the highest growth in bit shipment at more than 20% QoQ This performance can be attributed to several reasons: the cyclical upturn in procurement activities from smartphone brands, persistently strong demand from the data center segment, and inventory-clearing by SK hynix in anticipation of weak demand in the upcoming off-season Thanks to an ASP increase of about 5% QoQ, SK hynix’s NAND Flash revenue for 3Q21 reached US$254 billion, a 256% QoQ increase Western Digital Although Western Digital’s PC OEM clients reduced their SSD orders due to supply chain disruptions, and demand from the retail end also remained weak, Western Digital was able to increase its NAND Flash bit shipment by 8% QoQ in 3Q21 due to enterprise SSD demand from the data center segment and NAND Flash demand from smartphone brands for the release of new smartphone models Nevertheless, Western Digital’s ASP fell by 3% QoQ because the company increasingly focused on major clients and high-density products Western Digital’s NAND Flash revenue for 3Q21 reached US$249 billion, a 29% QoQ increase Micron Demand from the data center segment remained strong, and clients continued to adopt Micron’s 176L products However, Micron’s shipment share in the smartphone market lagged behind that of other NAND Flash suppliers Furthermore, its PC OEM clients were starting to be affected by the uneven supply of semiconductor chips In light of these factors, Micron’s NAND Flash bit shipment increased by a modest 4% QoQ On the other hand, the NAND Flash market remained in a severe shortage in 3Q21, thereby driving up Micron’s ASP by about 5% QoQ Hence, Micron’s NAND Flash revenue for 3Q21 reached US$197 billion, an 88% QoQ increase Intel Although persistently strong demand from the data center segment led to a massive price hike for enterprise SSDs and a nearly 6% increase in Intel’s ASP in 3Q21, the company was unable to fully meet its client demand since it could not procure sufficient upstream components This lack of upstream components resulted in a severe decline of about 5% QoQ in Intel’s NAND Flash bit shipments and offset the upward momentum generated by an increase in Intel’s ASP Intel’s NAND Flash revenue for 3Q21 reached a mere US$111 billion, a slight 06% QoQ increase For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Global OSAT Revenue for 3Q21 Reaches US$8.89 Billion Thanks to Peak Season Demand, Says TrendForce

2021/11/23

Semiconductors

As the global vaccination rate rose, and border restrictions in Europe and North America eased, social activities also began to enter a period of recovery, with the consumer electronics market seemingly ready for the arrival of the traditional peak season in 2H21, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations At the same time, however, the global supply chain was affected by delays in maritime transport, skyrocketing shipping costs, and component shortages, in addition to already-prohibitive price hikes for certain components in 1H21 Given the parallel rise in both material and manufacturing costs, the market for end products has not undergone the expected cyclical upturn in 2H21 Even so, the overall demand for and shipment of smartphones, notebook computers, and monitors experienced QoQ increases in 3Q21, thereby driving up businesses for major OSAT (outsourced semiconductor assembly and test) companies For 3Q21, the revenues of the top 10 OSAT companies reached US$889 billion, a 316% YoY increase Certain major OSAT companies experienced a slight dip in their capacity utilization rates due to the ongoing shortage of key components including chips and substrates, as well as the electricity rationing that limited both energy intensity and energy consumption in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong at the end of September Nevertheless, this dip has had virtually no impact on the OSAT industry because certain OSAT companies shifted their operations to substrate-less packaging technologies and reallocated the previously affected capacities Hence, TrendForce is bullish on the performance of the OSAT industry in 4Q21 Market leaders ASE and Amkor registered revenues of US$215 billion and US$168 billion, which represent YoY increases of 413% and 242%, respectively, for 3Q21 While both companies had some of their capacities hindered due to the shortage of chips, lead frames, and substrates, ASE had its lead times further extended given that its Suzhou-based fab was affected by China’s power rationing Notably, as the demand for packaging and testing smartphone APs, network chips, and automotive chips remains strong in 4Q21, ASE and Amkor will continue to expand in the 5G, IoT, and AI end-product markets in 2022 SPIL is currently aiming to strengthen the R&D operations for advanced packaging technologies at its new fab in Erlin, Changhua, since it will be unlikely to compensate for the loss of smartphone AP packaging business from Huawei in the short run SPIL’s revenue for 3Q21 reached US$104 billion, a 156% YoY increase While KYEC previously suffered lowered capacity utilization due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it has since made a gradual recovery and registered a revenue of US$323 million, a 285% YoY increase, for 3Q21, thanks to testing orders for 5G chips from Qualcomm and MediaTek PTI, on the other hand, primarily benefitted from its DRAM packaging and testing business The company posted a revenue of US$802 million, a 240% YoY increase, for 3Q21 Nonetheless, PTI’s memory packaging capacity will likely undergo a sharp decline going forward, as Intel gradually finalizes the sale of its Dalian fab to SK Hynix by 2025, and the agreement between Micron and PTI regarding the assembly and testing services PTI provides at Micron’s Xi’an fab expires in 2Q22 In response, PTI reallocated some capacities at its new fab in Hsinchu to other strategic priorities such as CIS packaging and FOPLP technologies in 3Q21 Major Chinese OSAT companies JCET and Hua Tian continued to benefit from China’s pursuit of domestic semiconductor substitutes The two companies expanded their supply of OSAT services for 5G smartphones, base stations, automotive chips, and consumer electronics As a result, JCET and Hua Tian registered revenues of US$125 billion and US$502 million, representing YoY growths of 275% and 576%, respectively, for 3Q21 Owing to strong sales by its client AMD this year, TFME recorded a revenue of US$636 million, an impressive 598% YoY increase, which represents the highest revenue growth among the top 10 OSAT companies in 3Q21 Although ChipMOS and Chipbond, which specialize in packaging and testing display panel driver ICs, were affected by the slight drop in small-sized TV panel shipment in 3Q21, they were able to compensate for this loss owing to the gradual increase in packaging and testing demand for such driver ICs as TDDI and DDI This increase can primarily be attributed to the growing demand for mid- and large-sized TV panels, as well as the ramp-up of OLED smartphone panels, which certain smartphone models began to adopt For 3Q21, ChipMOS and Chipbond grew their respectively revenue by 325% YoY and 295% YoY to about US$257 million and US$255 million At the same time, as IC design companies from the upstream supply chain redirected certain orders to ChipMOS and Chipbond in response to China’s power rationing at the end of September, these two companies will likely reach new revenue records in 4Q21 For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
TV Shipment Expected to Undergo 12.4% YoY Decline for 2H21 Despite Arrival of Traditional Peak Season, Says TrendForce

2021/11/22

Consumer Electronics

Quarterly TV shipment for 3Q21 reached 5251 million units, representing an 83% QoQ increase but a 147% YoY decrease, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations Demand for TVs was constrained during the quarter by the increase in various country’s vaccination rates as well as the rising retail prices of TV sets, resulting in a YoY shipment decline despite the arrival of the peak season It should be noted that prices of TV panels began to plummet in August, and this price drop enabled Chinese TV brands to both expand sales during the Singles’ Day (November 11) shopping festival and in turn make up for deficits in their yearly sales targets Global brands, on the other hand, will be unable to capitalize on the price drop of TV panels by reflecting this cost-savings on their TV sets’ retail prices until 1Q22 due to factors such as production, transportation, and inventory adjustments These brands are therefore having a difficult time increasing their TV shipment for 4Q21 Quarterly TV shipment for 4Q21 is expected to reach 5913 million units, representing a 126% QoQ increase but an 103% YoY decrease TV shipment for 2H21 will therefore likely be among the lowest compared to shipment volumes for second halves of previous years historically TrendForce further indicates that TV manufacturers’ shipment performances have been weakening this year as the market approaches the year’s end Stimulus checks issued in the US resulted in persistently high TV shipment in North America in 1H21, with brands maintaining their procurement of TV panels, thereby driving up the prices of TV panels as a result As the COVID-19 pandemic is gradually brought under control, and everyday life returns to normalcy in Europe and North America in 2H21, the pandemic-generated upswing in TV sales subsequently lost momentum Furthermore, while prices of raw materials and transportation/logistics services remained sky-high, manufacturing costs of whole TV sets also underwent a sharp climb and were then transferred to consumers Taken together, these factors quickly wiped out market demand for TVs TrendForce therefore expects annual TV shipment for 2021 to reach 210 million units, a 32% YoY decline With a forecasted annual shipment of 68 million units for 2021, OLED TVs have become favored by various brands amidst rising manufacturing costs of TV sets TV brands face various manufacturing-related challenges this year Not only have panel costs, which account for the largest share of TV sets’ manufacturing costs, undergone an increase, but port congestions have also led to rising shipping costs and an extended lead time before TV sets can be delivered for retail sale In addition to an uneven availability of various components, these aforementioned obstacles all exacerbate the risks involved with TV brands’ shipment In a bid to maximize profits, however, brands have been making a concentrated effort to ensure that the production of OLED TVs remained free from disruptions in an effort to maximize profits As brands shift the focus of their sales efforts to OLED TVs, OLED TV shipment for 2021 is expected to reach 68 million units, a 728% YoY increase This growth can primarily be attributed to an increase in OLED TV supply due to the expanded production capacity of LGD’s production line in Guangzhou, as well as the narrowing difference between LCD panel prices and OLED panel prices due to the sharp rise in the former in 1H21 In particular, LGE is set to take leadership position with an over 60% market share and a 91% YoY growth in its OLED TV shipment Trailing behind in second place is Sony, which has been sourcing OLED panels from LGD The Japanese company is expected to register a 53% YoY increase in shipment and possess a 20% market share Panasonic, on the other hand, comfortably took third place with a 7% market share Notably, Xiaomi and Sharp are the two dark horses with regards to OLED TV shipment this year with explosive YoY growths of 900% and 140%, respectively Major brands will concentrate on the high-end and large-sized segments, while smaller brands will continue to steadily develop mainstream products While demand in the TV market recovers as the pandemic runs its course, TrendForce expects 45% and 55% of the total annual TV shipment for 2022 to take place in 1H22 and 2H22, respectively TV shipment for 2022 will likely reach 217 million units, a 33% YoY increase, as brands are able to aggressively ramp up their TV shipments thanks to not only an undisrupted supply of panels, but also gradually stabilizing prices For major brands, their focus will be on medium-sized and large-sized products and on products with substantial added values Hence, the market share of large-sized TVs (including 65-inch and above models) will for the first time ever surpass 20%, with medium-sized (40-inch to 59-inch models) TVs remaining at a 55% market share Although major brands are gradually exiting the small-sized segment, and smaller brands will have an easier time expanding their presence in emerging markets owing to gradually stabilizing prices, small-sized (39-inch and below models) TVs will see their market share drop by 18% next year to 25% In any case, the primary target markets for major brands and smaller brands will not overlap next year For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
AR/VR Device Shipment for 2022 Expected to Reach 12.02 Million Units Thanks to Rising Opportunities in Metaverse, Says TrendForce

2021/11/18

Emerging Technologies

The growth of the metaverse will drive an increasing number of companies to participate in the build-out of the virtual world, with use cases such as social communities, gaming/entertainment, content creation, virtual economy, and industrial applications all becoming important points of focus in the coming years, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations Apart from increases in both computing power of semiconductors and coverage of low-latency, high-speed networks, the metavere’s development will also depend on the adoption of AR/VR devices by end users TrendForce expects global AR/VR device shipment for 2022 to reach 1202 million units, a 264% YoY increase, with Oculus and Microsoft each taking leadership position in the consumer and commercial markets, respectively TrendForce further indicates that the success of AR/VR devices in the consumer and commercial markets will be determined by their retail prices and degree of system integration, respectively, while these two factors are also responsible for leading companies’ continued competitive advantages However, gross and net profit considerations regarding AR/VR hardware have made it difficult to not only price these devices competitively, but also increase the volume of AR/VR device shipment Even so, the growing popularity of the metaverse will drive more and more hardware brands to enter the AR/VR market and push online service platform providers to either directly or indirectly propel the growth of the hardware market in 2022 Regarding the consumer market, AR/VR device suppliers may look to expand their user base and increase their market penetration via low-priced yet high-spec devices, while compensating for their reduced hardware profitability through software sales Oculus, for instance, has adopted such a strategy to maintain its advantage in the market, thereby raising the market share of the Oculus Quest products to a forecasted 66% next year Regarding the commercial market, there has been a growth in applications ranging from remote interactions and virtual collaborations to digital twins; hence, enterprises have become increasingly willing to adopt AR/VR devices Compared to the consumer market, which is mainly driven by products with low prices and high specs, the commercial market is comprised of enterprises that are more willing to choose high-priced and high-performance products, although such products must be paired with a full system integration solution or customized services Possessing substantial competency in the industrial ecosystem, Microsoft enjoys a relatively large competitive advantage in the commercial market, as the company’s HoloLens 2 became one of the few commercial AR devices with an annual shipment exceeding 200,000 units this year It should also be pointed out that, given the rapid advancements in high-speed 5G networks, video-based remote assistance applications enabled by low-priced AR glasses and 5G smartphones’ computing and networking functions will become yet another commercial AR/VR use case TrendForce believes that these applications can serve as a low-cost, easily deployable early trial that will not only raise enterprises’ willingness to adopt more AR/VR commercial applications going forward, but also accelerate the development of commercial services related to the metaverse For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

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