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Press Releases
NB Panel Shipments in October Dropped to a Decade Low for That Month and Will Remain in a Slump in 4Q22, but Growth Will Return in 1Q23, Says TrendForce

2022/11/28

Display

TrendForce’s latest research finds that shipments of display panels used in notebook computers (NB panels) came to 135 million pieces (pcs) in this October, showing a MoM drop of 161% and a YoY drop of 450% Based on TrendForce’s tracking of NB panel shipments, this figure is a 10-year low for the month of October Moving into 4Q22, TrendForce expects NB panel shipments to remain in a slump because of uncertainties in the global economy and inventory adjustments that are taking place across the entire supply chain Fourth-quarter shipment figure is now estimated around 417 million pcs, reflecting a QoQ drop of 108% and a YoY drop of 459% TrendForce points out that from a historical perspective, this latest decline in NB panel shipments is part of the wider, multi-year cycle for global manufacturing The cycle first begins with strong demand causing shortages and price hikes Then, supply outpaces demand, thus leading to falling prices and inventory corrections Looking back to 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic was at its height, the surging demand for notebook computers (NBs) caused a panel shortage Then, even as more panel supply was released, NB brands continued to stock up due to worries about potential shortages of the key components They allowed their panel inventories to keep climbing Fast-forward to the recent period, the pandemic has eased, so the supply situation has improved as well Furthermore, the demand and windfall associated with the effects of the pandemic have also subsided What follows now is a series of large inventory corrections in the panel market, the kind of which is rarely seen on record in terms of the overall scale According to TrendForce’s data, the glut ratio for NB panels reached around 18% in 3Q21 Since the glut ratio for an ideal supply-demand balance should be within 11~14%, the market for NB panels had already shifted to oversupply at that time This situation was also becoming more severe over the quarters Then, moving into 1Q22, the Russia-Ukraine military conflict exacerbated global inflation Furthermore, China suffered a wave of regional lockdowns as its government enforced a strict zero-COVID policy These factor together caused a sharp slide in the demand for end products and compelled NB brands to scale back their panel procurements Consequently, the NB panel market saw falling shipments and glut ratio from 2Q22 onward Later on, the demand for end products weakened further, and the flow of components and materials was gradually returning normal as the problem of cargo pile-up at the major seaports was easing Brands thus realized that the massive panel inventory that they had been building up over the preceding quarters had become a serious problem Now, in the second half of this year, brands have again made considerable cuts to their panel procurement quantities so as to effectively control their inventory levels The scale of corrections has been reflected by the glut ratio, which has stayed under 5% for two quarters straight (3Q22-4Q22) In its latest survey of individual brands’ inventory situations for NB panels, TrendForce finds that some US brands began to impose strict inventory control as early as the start of 2Q22 The total NB panel procurement quantity for that quarter saw a QoQ reduction of around 60% However, the total procurement quantity then rose by around 40% QoQ for 3Q22 as brands’ inventories had fallen back to a relatively healthy level This dramatic fluctuation between the two quarters indicates that brands will raise demand back up when the inventory situation is again optimal At the start of 3Q22, brands with a higher inventory level were carrying more than 12 weeks However, following two quarters of significant adjustments to procurement quantity, more than half of brands are expected to bring their inventories down to the healthy level of 4~8 weeks by the end of this year Looking ahead to the first quarter of next year, brands’ procurement quantities will rebound despite the arrival of the low season for end products because their inventory situation is expected to be fairly optimal by then TrendForce forecasts that NB panel shipments will rise by 35% QoQ to 432 million pcs for 1Q23 The glut ratio for that quarter will come to around 13% For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/ Media Contact

Press Releases
Global NEV Sales Reached 2.87 Million Units for 3Q22 as BYD Trailed Closely Behind Tesla in BEV Segment, Says TrendForce

2022/11/24

Emerging Technologies

TrendForce’s latest research finds that global sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs), which encompass battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and fuel-cell vehicles (FCVs), rose by 70% YoY to 287 million units for 3Q22 Of the quarterly total, BEV sales accounted for 2147 million units and registered a YoY growth of 75%, whereas PHEV sales accounted for 714,000 units and registered a YoY growth of 57% In the global ranking of BEV brands by vehicle sales for 3Q22, Tesla took first place with 344,000 units While Tesla managed to maintain its market share at 16%, its lead over second-placed BYD in sales figure had narrowed further BYD sold 259,000 BEVs in 3Q22, posting a massive YoY growth of 182% It is also worth noting that the gap between Tesla and BYD in BEV sales has been smaller than 100,000 units for two quarters straight SGMW and Volkswagen respectively stayed at third and fourth in the ranking, showing no change from the previous quarter As for fifth to 10th, TrendForce especially points out that these places were all taken by Chinese brands Looking at the global top 10 BEV brands for 3Q22, MG Motor (that has been acquired by SAIC Motor) and Geometry entered this group for the first time mainly thanks to the robust demand from China Conversely, Hyundai, Kia, and XPeng Motors were pushed out of the top 10 XPeng stated that the deliveries of its new electric SUV G9 would ramp up this October Whether XPeng will remain in the group of top 10 for 2022 depends on its performance in the fourth quarter Turning to the global ranking of PHEV brands by vehicle sales for 3Q22, BYD was at the top with 279,000 units and held a market share of 391% As for other PHEV brands, they still were unable to raise their market shares above 10% even though they posted a QoQ increase in vehicle sales Looking at the two German luxury car brands that are involved in the PHEV segment, Mercedes-Benz rose to second place in the ranking because of a QoQ gain for vehicle sales in both the home market and China BMW saw falling sales for its PHEVs in Europe, so it posted a decline in units and slipped down in the the ranking Chinese brand AITO entered the group of the global top 10 PHEV brands for the first time in 3Q22 and was immediately placed fifth AITO is a brand under Seres and is in close cooperation with Huawei, and its vehicle models feature many technologies from Huawei as well Going forward, the market performances of AITO’s vehicles will actually be an important indicator of Huawei’s progress in the development of an automotive business Moving into 4Q22, TrendForce believes that autumn releases of new vehicle models and year-end promotional activities will be the main drivers of car sales worldwide Consumers have been waiting for new vehicle models or new generations of the existing vehicle models This is one of the reasons why some carmakers saw declining vehicle sales in 3Q22 Therefore, these same carmakers could still get a boost in annual vehicle sales from their performances in the fourth quarter As for the Chinese NEV market, it will stay fairly hot in 4Q22 as car brands operating there continue to provide incentives for vehicle purchases Furthermore, Chinese consumers still want to take advantage of their government’s NEV subsidy program before its termination For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Global NAND Flash Revenue Fell by 24.3% QoQ for 3Q23 as Suppliers Made Large Price Concessions That in Turn Impacted Their Results, Says TrendForce

2022/11/23

Semiconductors

Market intelligence firm TrendForce reports that the whole NAND Flash market was severely weakened by plummeting demand in 3Q22 Because shipments of end products including consumer electronics and servers had been below expectations, the overall NAND ASP fell by 183% QoQ Furthermore, the general economic outlook remained pessimistic, so enterprises across many sectors started to scale back their capital expenditure plans and halted the momentum of their procurement activities Due to this development, the problem of excess inventory eventually spread to NAND Flash suppliers The pressure on suppliers to make sales was ratcheted up dramatically According to TrendForce’s investigation, NAND Flash bit shipments fell by 67% QoQ for 3Q22, and the overall NAND Flash ASP also kept sliding On account of the unfavorable market situation, the NAND Flash industry recorded a total revenue of around US$1371 billion for 3Q22 The QoQ revenue decline reached as much as 243% The ranking of NAND Flash suppliers by revenue saw two notable changes for 3Q22 First, SK Group moved down to third place as it suffered the largest revenue drop among suppliers Its revenue slipped by 298% QoQ to US$254 billion mainly due to the significant deterioration of the demand for PCs and smartphones Its subsidiary Solidigm was also affected by the slowdown in server procurements Previously, servers had a fairly stable demand situation compared with other kinds of end products However, server demand eventually buckled in 3Q22 as result of enterprises cutting capital expenditure and undergoing a period of inventory correction Compared with 2Q22, SK Group (that encompasses SK hynix and Solidigm) posted a drop of 111% in bit shipments and an even steeper decline of more than 20% in ASP The other notable change in the 3Q22 ranking was Kioxia The supplier returned to second place in terms of revenue and market share because it was able to make a gradual recovery from the material contamination incident that had happened earlier this year Even though Kioxia did suffer a significant decline in its ASP due to the slumping demand for consumer electronics, its bit shipments were bolstered by the seasonal stock-up activities of its clients in the smartphone industry and rose by 235% QoQ Taken altogether, Kioxia’s revenue dipped by just 01% QoQ to US$283 billion Owing to Downturn in Both Quantity and Price, Micron Posted Largest Drop in NAND Flash Bit Shipments with QoQ Decline Reaching 21% Other NAND Flash suppliers including Samsung, Western Digital and Micron all posted a considerable QoQ decline in revenue for 3Q22 because of a drop in both price and shipment quantity Again, weakening demand for end products was one of the major reasons behind these suppliers’ poor performances Regarding Samsung, the supplier saw a drop in its enterprise SSD shipments during 3Q22 as server demand slowed down This was a sharp negative turn compared with the situation in 2Q22, when orders related to data centers were propping up enterprise SSD procurements Samsung’s revenue fell by 281% QoQ to US$43 billion for 3Q22 Western Digital’s NAND Flash business were under enormous pressure in 3Q22 as it recorded a QoQ decline in bit shipments and a sharp drop in its ASP All in all, Western Digital’s revenue fell by 283% QoQ to US$172 billion Turning to Micron, an analysis of its memory revenue performance, which encompasses both DRAM and NAND Flash, has revealed that the only the application segment that did well in 3Q22 was automotive memory solutions Micron actually posted a new high for its revenue from automotive memory solutions in that quarter Conversely, its revenue figures related to other memory-related applications, including NAND Flash solutions for data centers, industrial IoT, etc, all exhibited a QoQ drop And because of the poor results for the rest of application segments, Micron’s NAND Flash revenue as a whole registered a steep QoQ decline of 262% to US$169 billion NAND Revenue Will Show a QoQ Drop Again for 4Q22 as Inventory Pressure Continues to Mount and Production Cuts Bring No Immediate Relief Moving into 4Q22, TrendForce believes that with the notable exception of Samsung, most suppliers will be more cautious in planning output following their respective earnings calls for the third quarter To restore balance to supply-demand dynamics as quickly as possible, suppliers will be taking measures such as cutting wafer input and decelerating the pace of technology migration However, the usual demand surge in connection with the year-end holiday sales has failed to materialize this year, and NAND Flash buyers’ passiveness is causing inventory to further accumulate on the supply side As for production cuts, their effect on the market will not be apparent for at least a quarter Hence, prices of NAND Flash products will still be under significant downward pressure in 4Q22, and TrendForce has widened the projected QoQ decline in contract prices to 20~25% in its latest forecast With high inventory and falling prices serving as constraining factors, the NAND Flash industry is also forecasted to post a QoQ decline of almost 20% in its total revenue for 4Q22 For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Projected YoY Growth Rate of Server Shipments for 2023 Has Been Revised Down to 2.8% as Inventory Adjustments Continue and Companies Curb IT-Related Expenditures

2022/11/22

Semiconductors

Based on the latest data and research, TrendForce has further corrected down the projected YoY growth rate of whole server shipments for 2023 to 28% Three factors are behind this revision First, lead time has started to return to its usual length for most orders related to server components from 3Q23 onward Seeing this, server OEMs and cloud service providers (CSPs) have also begun to correct the component mismatch issue by lowering demand for items that are in excess while maintaining a constant inventory level for items that are still in tight supply This development, in turn, has reduced the flow of server orders going to ODMs Second, the wave of demand that was generated earlier from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic is dissipating Hence, expansion activities have cooled off noticeably for services such as video streaming, e-commerce, etc Among CSPs, Meta, Google, and ByteDance (TikTok) have lowered their server procurement quantities for next year Lastly, the global economic outlook has remained fairly negative, so companies across most industry sectors have formulated a more conservative expenditure plan and scaled back IT-related spending for next year QoQ Declines in Prices of Server DRAM Modules and Enterprise SSDs for 4Q22 Have Widened to 23~28% as Competition Among Suppliers Intensifies In the server DRAM market, DRAM suppliers are facing greater difficulties in raising sales because buyers have been carrying a high level of inventory during the second half of this year In 3Q22, suppliers did manage to get some buyers to lock in the price for that quarter and the next However, TrendForce believes that further downward corrections to next year’s server shipments have ratcheted up the price competition among suppliers Moving into October, CSPs received even lower server DRAM quotes as suppliers proposed to lock in the price to the end of 1H23 Now, in November, another round of negotiations for “fourth-quarter special deals” has also commenced Due to these developments, QoQ declines in contract prices of server DRAM modules for 4Q22 have enlarged to 23~28% Regarding the enterprise SSD market, orders remained relatively stable for a while However, the increasingly conservative economic outlook and the downward revisions to corporate capital expenditure plans in 2H22 have led to softer demand momentum for enterprise SSDs Moreover, NAND Flash suppliers face rising inventory for enterprise SSDs as the demand for consumer electronics has plummeted Internally, they have been under pressure to find solutions for consuming excess production capacity and meeting their year-end targets Externally, they need to prepare for headwinds such the expected weak demand situation during the low season of 1Q23 and delays in the production ramp-up of Intel’s and AMD’s new server CPU platforms Given these factors, suppliers are compelled to offer larger price concessions on enterprise SSDs even though the contracts for this fourth quarter have already been arranged Due to the new wave of negotiation activities, QoQ declines in contract prices of enterprise SSDs have exceeded the earlier estimation and now come to 23~28% as well For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Supply Chain Related to Driver ICs Shows Signs of Decoupling in Response to Potential Risks from Tightening US Semiconductor Trade Restrictions, Says TrendForce

2022/11/21

Display

Recent observations by market intelligence firm TrendForce suggests that the ongoing expansion of the US semiconductor trade restrictions against China could eventually spread to the display panel industry Agencies within the US government are taking notice of China’s certain advantages in the development of display technologies and build-up of panel production capacity However, the US will unlikely attempt to directly impose control over panel supply with new trade restrictions in the short term On the other hand, the upstream portion of the supply chain, especially the sections concerning driver ICs and other related semiconductor chips, are starting to react to the tightening of the US sanctions against Chinese semiconductor companies Furthermore, some electronics OEMs have recently been re-examining their panel supply chains to evaluate the sourcing of semiconductor components While OEMs have yet to explicitly ban the use of panel-related chips from Chinese suppliers, they are actively developing backup plans that would seek alternative supply sources in case the US further broadens the scope its technology export rules on Chinese companies The continuation and strengthening of the restrictions on semiconductor trade is starting to have an effect on the supply chain related to driver ICs TrendForce’s latest investigation finds signs of decoupling or bifurcation Specifically, there is a divergence towards both extremes: a supply chain that totally excludes Chinese content versus a counterpart that is “de-Americanized” Again, looking at OEMs, they have not rejected panels from certain suppliers for now, but they might start to prefer or exclude particular IC design houses that offer driver chips As for foundries and OSAT providers, decoupling has begun in accordance with the decisions of some downstream customers In the future, there is a distinct possibility that Chinese IC design houses, foundries and OSAT providers could be barred from participating in the supply chains for the product models targeting the US market Conversely, the ban on Chinese suppliers will not apply to product models targeting the Chinese market Instead, OEMs might actually increase Chinese suppliers’ participation in order to raise the chance of a successfully entry into this region Component suppliers such as IC design houses, too, could adopt a similar strategy so as to insert themselves into the Chinese market To comply with and support the localization policy of the Chinese government, component suppliers could increase the portion of partners or clients from China and establish a separate local supply chain Presently, Chinese foundries have steadily raised their collective market share for large-sized driver ICs to around 25% They still have much ground to catch up when compared with the 40% held by Taiwan-based foundries, but this share figure is still significant If the US government imposes new restrictions seeking to prevent Chinese foundries from using mature semiconductor process technologies to manufacture chips such as driver ICs, then the supply chains for panels and related ICs will likely face another huge wave of capacity crunch and supply shortage Nevertheless, since there are no direct orders from the US government targeting panel supply and related components at this moment, TrendForce believes the decoupling process in the supply chain for driver ICs is going to be a slow and drawn-out process In the long run, decoupling as an overarching trend will make the supply chain more fragmented and inefficient This development, in turn, will increase the overall cost for all parties involved Furthermore, due to the need to mitigate the potential risks resulting from the decoupling process, the supply chain could even see an elevation of minimum inventory level and a prolonging of order lead time TrendForce holds the view that both risks and opportunities exist in the decoupling and rearrangement of the supply chain Some IC design houses could gradually redirect wafer input to fabs outside China for some of their offerings in order to eliminate the possible risks associated with the US sanctions or satisfy some customers’ demand for non-Chinese components Thus, IC design houses and foundries that operate in Taiwan could gain new orders as the supply chain undergoes an internal shakeup On the other hand, their counterparts in Mainland China could have more opportunities to rise as major players thanks to their government’s strategy for localizing supply chains For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

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