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Press Releases
Wi-Fi 6/6e Expected to Become Mainstream Technology with Close to 60% Market Share in 2022, Says TrendForce

2022/01/26

Telecommunications

Exponential demand growth for remote and unmanned terminals in smart home, logistics, manufacturing and other end-user applications has driven iterative updates in Wi-Fi technology Among the current generations of technologies, Wi-Fi 5 (80211ac) is mainstream while Wi-Fi 6 and 6E (80211ax) are at promotional stages, according to TrendForce’s investigations In order to meet the connection requirements of industry concepts such as the Metaverse, many major manufacturers have trained their focus on the faster and more stable next generation 80211be Wi-Fi standard amendment, commonly known as Wi-Fi 7 Considering technical characteristics, maturity, and product certification status, Wi-Fi 6 and 6E are expected to surpass Wi-Fi 5 to become mainstream technology in 2022, with global market share expected to reach 58% TrendForce states, in common residential applications of Wi-Fi, Wi-Fi 6E supports 6GHz and expands bandwidth by at least 1200MHz, delivering higher efficiency, throughput, and security than Wi-Fi 6, and can optimize remote work, VR/AR, and other user experiences Moreover, in terms of the vertical IoT sector with the highest output value, smart manufacturing still mostly employs Ethernet and 4G/5G mobile networks as the central communication technologies in current smart factories However, as early as 2019, major British aerospace equipment manufacturer, Mettis Aerospace, and the Wireless Broadband Alliance (WBA) conducted phased testing of the practicality of Wi-Fi 6 in factories, and they believe that Wi-Fi 6 can be widely adopted for manufacturing Market not yet mature, practical application of Wi-Fi 7 must wait until the end of 2023 at the earliest TrendForce believes that the introduction of Industry 40 technology tools will become more common and the degree of digitalization within companies will increase in the post-pandemic era, with 5G and Wi-Fi expected to bring complementary and synergistic effects to the manufacturing field The primary reason for this is that 5G characteristics include wide connection, large bandwidth, and low latency In addition, multi-access edge computing (MEC) and standalone (SA) network slicing can improve computing power and flexibility, all of which significantly upgrade smart manufacturing tools Although the transmission range of Wi-Fi is small, it resists interference and enhances the physical penetration of wireless signals at smart manufacturing locations Wi-Fi also reduces the cost of 5G distributed antennas and small base stations while extending communications range and improving equipment battery life Looking forward to next generation Wi-Fi 7, companies such as MediaTek, Qualcomm, and Broadcom, are already laying the groundwork for their forays into this standard TrendForce believes, even though focus is currently shifting to Wi-Fi 7, scheduled application of Wi-Fi 7 is expected to fall between the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 Challenges remain in terms of overall development and issues such as equipment investment, spectrum usage, deployment cost, and terminal equipment penetration must all be overcome in order to demonstrate the technical benefits of Wi-Fi 7 For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
TV Shipments Estimated to Reach 217 million units in 2022, High-end Competition White Hot, Says TrendForce

2022/01/25

Consumer Electronics

The shipment performance of TV brands in 1H21 benefited from COVID-19 economic relief funds in the US, driving a continuing boom in North American shipments, according to TrendForce’s investigations At the same time, TV brands continued to replenish panel inventories, pushing up panel prices As the pandemic slowed down in Europe and the United States in 2H21, life returned to normal and pandemic stimulus no longer applied, challenging demand levels In addition, rising raw material and freight prices pushed up whole device cost, forcing TV brands to pass costs onto retail pricing Even though TV brands staked their hopes on the two major annual yearend sales promotion events of Singles Day in China (the biggest shopping day of the year globally, online and IRL) and Black Friday, sales performance was poor due to high costs leading to a slump in end-user demand and eventually causing TV shipments to decline by 32% annually to 210 million units in 2021 TrendForce further indicates that panel supply and overall production capacity will be ample in 2022, dispelling severe TV panel price fluctuations while ushering in steady and moderate fluctuations as a replacement After a sharp revision in TV panel prices in the 2H21, this year’s panel pricing is more advantageous to the planning of TV brands In addition, the severe impact of the pandemic in Southeast Asia and emerging markets and high panel prices last year caused TV brands to reduce the scale of small-sized 236-inch, 32-inch, and 43-inch products, forcing a deferral of demand In 2022, the pricing of small-sized panels will be close to panel manufacturers’ cash cost which will help TV brands recapture a larger proportion of small-sized panel shipments The proportion of shipments below 39-inch will remain at 25%, medium-sized 40~59-inch panels will remain at 55%, and large-sized panels above 60-inch will remain the focus of international brands with market share expected to rise to 20% Benefiting from the deferral of small-sized panel demand, TV shipments in 2022 will grow by 34% to 217 million units OLED TV growth to slow down in 2022, annual growth rate to settle at 27% In 2021, OLED TVs benefited from soaring LCD prices in the previous two years This was also the case with 55-inch 4K O/C products The price difference between the two has narrowed from a multiple of 47 in early 2020 to 18 in mid-2021, thereby incentivizing more TV brands to switch to producing OLED TVs when LCD panel supply is limited and driving OLED TV shipments to 67 million units in 2021, or 70% growth YoY Although Samsung Electronics intends to join the white OLED camp and simultaneously launch QD OLED TVs this year, the continuing falling pricing of LCD panels and the price of OLED TV panels (subject to LG Display's strategy of increasing pricing as opposed to dropping them) may disrupt Samsung Electronics' rollout of OLED TVs If Samsung Electronics fails to launch spring OLED TV models, its original shipment target of 15 million units will inevitably be affected However, whether it launches OLED TV models in spring or summer, Samsung Electronics will take advantage of its brand and channel advantages irrespective of other considerations to take the OLED TV market by storm and aim for a market share of 15% Annual growth rate of Mini LED TVs doubled, shipments push towards 45 million units TCL has opened up new horizons for TV products after releasing its first Mini LED TV in 2020 In 2021, Samsung Electronics launched a series of 50-85-inch mid/high-end 4K and flagship 55-85-inch 8K Mini LED models, with shipments exceeding one million units in the first year, reaching 15 million units, and boosting overall Mini LED TV shipments in 2021 to 21 million units In addition to Samsung Electronics and TCL continuing to utilize Mini LED in 2022, more TV brands will also join the fray Overall Mini LED TV shipments will race towards 45 million units SONY showed its 8K 85-inch and 75-inch TVs for the first time at CES at the beginning of the year Sony’s flagship 4K 85-inch, 75-inch, and 65-inch models were the most notable at CES and Sony will join Samsung and LG Electronics as another international brand marketing OLED and Mini LED TVs, intensifying competition in the high-end TV market For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Price Drop of NAND Flash Products for 1Q22 Expected to Taper to 8-13% QoQ Decline, Says TrendForce

2022/01/24

Semiconductors

NAND Flash prices for 1Q22 are expected to decline by 8-13% QoQ, compared to TrendForce’s previous forecast of 10-15% QoQ, primarily due to PC OEMs’ increased orders for PCIe 30 products and the impact of the lockdown in Xi’an on PC OEMs’ price negotiation approaches To mitigate potential risks in logistics, NAND Flash buyers are now more willing to accept a narrower decline in contract prices in order to obtain their products sooner However, as the Xi’an lockdown has not noticeably affected the local fabs’ manufacturing operations, the movement of NAND Flash contract prices going forward will likely remain relatively unaffected by the lockdown In addition, TrendForce finds that the daily number of new COVID-19 cases in Xi’an has recently undergone a noticeable drop, and the local government has also announced that that the emergency level has been downgraded As such, Samsung’s and Micron’s local production facilities are returning to normal with respect to workforce and operational capacity Samsung’s local production base manufactures NAND Flash products, whereas Micron’s local production base is responsible for the testing and packaging of DRAM chips as well as the assembly of DRAM modules The impacts of the lockdown mainly relate to delays in the deliveries of memory products to customers On the other hand, the event has not caused a tangible loss in memory production Lockdown in Xi’an has not caused a notable rise in NAND Flash spot prices because most spot buyers already carry a high level of inventory Regarding NAND Flash spot prices, suppliers temporarily suspended quote offering immediately after the event due to concerns about the fallout As a result, the general decline in NAND Flash spot prices has more or less come to a halt However, there has been no accompanying signs of spot buyers rushing to procure more products, and the overall transaction volume remains fairly low TrendForce’s latest survey of the spot market finds that buyers still have plenty of stock on hand and are not in a hurry to procure NAND Flash products at the prices that are currently being offered Decline in client SSD and UFS prices for 1Q22 is expected to narrow Regarding the contract prices of major NAND Flash products, their overall decline has been narrower than previously expected For instance, despite the weakening demand for Chromebooks, notebook production on the whole has been improving as component gaps become gradually resolved, while demand for commercial notebooks also provides some upward momentum for the overall shipment of notebook computers As a result, the QoQ decline in notebook shipment for 1Q22 has been narrower compared to prior first quarters Furthermore, lower-than-expected shipment of Intel’s latest Alder Lake CPUs, which support PCIe 40 interface, has led certain PC OEMs to ramp up their orders for PCIe 30 SSDs in order to meet their PC shipment targets for 1Q22 However, SSD suppliers have already begun gradually transitioning their material preparation to PCIe 40 SSD instead, thereby creating a gap between the supply and demand of PCIe 30 SSDs As well, the Xi’an lockdown has prompted client SSD buyers to scramble to lock in their required delivery volumes Taken together, these factors have lessened the decline in client SSD prices for 1Q22 from the previous 5-10% QoQ to 3-8% QoQ Regarding smartphones, not only has demand remained relatively sluggish, but smartphone brands are also still holding a relatively high level of eMMC/UFS inventory, meaning these brands are not particularly willing to negotiate prices for high volumes of mobile NAND Flash storage at the moment On the other hand, thanks to increased orders from PC OEMs since November 2021, NAND Flash suppliers’ inventory levels have fallen somewhat Hence, the decline in mobile NAND Flash storage quotes has in turn narrowed slightly Contract prices of UFS products are now expected to decrease by 5-10% QoQ in 1Q22 instead of 8-13% QoQ as previously expected Finally, contract prices of server SSD and NAND Flash wafers are expected to decline by 3-8% QoQ and 10-15% QoQ, respectively, in 1Q22, in line with prior expectations For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Locked Onto Home Theater and High-End Commercial Display Markets, Revenue of Micro LED Large-sized Display Chips Will Reach US$4.5 Billion in 2026, Says TrendForce

2022/01/19

LED

Micro LED large-sized displays will move towards the home theater and high-end commercial display markets and the revenue of Micro LED large-sized display chips is estimated to reach US$54 million in 2022, according to TrendForce’s latest research By 2026, revenue is expected to grow to US$45 billion with a compound annual growth rate of 204% In addition, technical obstacles will be conquered one by one over time The development of Micro LED large-sized displays will peak from 2026 to 2030 and the one year revenue of Micro LED chips has the opportunity to reach tens of billions of dollars In recent years, major global brands in various regions have released Micro/Mini LED self-emissive large-sized display products Samsung, the world’s leading TV manufacturer, released a 146-inch TV, "The Wall," in 2018 and continues to release 75-inch, 89-inch, 101-inch, 110-inch, 219-inch, and 292-inch large tiled wall displays at CES every year Due to the evolution of different application scenarios and technologies, the future development trend of Micro LED large-sized displays will be in home theaters, corporate headquarters, and boutique stores Commercial indoor and outdoor large-sized displays are mainly based on Mini LED self-emissive large-sized displays In order to satisfy the requirements of close indoor viewing, Micro LED large-sized displays require a theater-level experience, seamless tiled display splicing, pursuit of zero borders, thin design, and competitive pricing Thus, active matrix (AM) would be the first choice for display design TrendForce states, current Micro LED large-sized displays still face the dual challenges of technology and cost including Micro LED chip cost, and the three key technologies of backplane technology, driving technology, and the mass transfer process In terms of Micro LED chip cost, due to the enormous number of chips used and the need for consistent wavelength uniformity to achieve perfect display quality, the clean room level requirements for epitaxial and chip processes, control of process conditions, and inspection and maintenance during processes are very strict, greatly increasing relative process defect rate and overall cost In terms of mass transfer, the current mass transfer technologies used in Micro LED large-sized displays include pick-and-place technology and laser transfer technology, each with its own advantages and disadvantages TrendForce believes that, although current Micro LED mass transfer technology is still in the product development and adjustment stage, there have been no real quantitative achievements However, in terms of pick-and-place mass transfer equipment capacity, using 10cm2 transfer stamps to transfer 34*58µm Micro LED chips, production capacity (UPH; Unit per Hour) is approximately 7 million units If the laser mask opening of laser mass transfer technology is 8 square millimeters, production capacity is approximately 12 million units No matter which kind of transfer technology, the mass transfer capacity of Micro LED large-sized displays needs to reach at least a 20 million unit level of efficiency and 99999% yield in the future to meet the conditions for mass commercialization Active matrix design will abet the development of Micro LED technology In terms of backplane and drive technology, passive matrix (PM) drive design is based on a PCB backplane with a passive drive circuit structure, using MOSFET as the current switching element Therefore, overall structure is more complex and requires a wider placement area for circuit components In addition, when dot pitch is reduced to less than P0625, the PCB backplane will encounter the challenges of line width and line space mass production limitations and rising cost Thus, the current technological state of the passive matrix (PM) drive design is more suited to large-sized display applications utilizing dot pitches greater than P0625 and equipped with a Mini LED However, for consumer Micro LED TVs employing a dot pitch less than P0625, active matrix (AM) drive design will become the new direction of display design Since a TFT glass backplane with LTPS switching technology is considered mature technology by panel manufacturers, it is necessary to adjust certain portions of the manufacturing process and parameters to precisely control and drive Micro LED current In addition, in order to achieve seamless tiled display splicing technology, glass metallization and side wire electrode glass will become further technical challenges As resolution moves higher and the dot pitch is reduced, the front circuit of TFT glass must be guided to the back along the side or by using through-holes At this time, glass metallization technology becomes key Since current glass metallization technology is still afflicted with technical bottlenecks resulting in high cost due to low yield, when these bottlenecks are resolved with future technology, the launch of mass production glass metallization will become the advantage of active matrix backplanes Future active matrix (AM) drive design with Micro LED chips and seamless splicing technology have the opportunity to become the mainstream technology of Micro LED TV development and the key to unlocking a new wave of Micro LED large-sized display cost optimization For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Optoelectronics Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
As Pandemic Resurges, Certain Productions Lines Suspended at Murata Fukui Takefu but Yet to Affect Production or Shipping, Says Trendforce

2022/01/18

Semiconductors

The allocation of Murata's primary production hubs and production capacity is as follows: 56% in Japan, 36% in China, 3% in Singapore, and 5% in the Philippines, according to TrendForce’s investigations Recently, a cluster of employees at Murata's Fukui Takefu Plant tested positive for the COVID-19 virus Since production diversion management had been strengthened and anti-pandemic measures implemented in advance, only some categories of production capacity have been reduced or suspended and this incident has not halted production for the entire factory According to TrendForce, the Fukui Takefu Plant accounts for 207% of the company's production capacity, mainly producing high-end consumer MLCCs The current production reduction or suspension of some items will affect the supply of products such as servers and high-end smartphones Fortunately, Fukui Takefu still retains 4~ 6 weeks of inventory and this incident should not tighten market supply in the short term Decentralized production hubs and off-site backups are major issues for MLCC suppliers after the pandemic In addition, according to data released by the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China on January 17, the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases as of January 16 reached 163, including 80 in Tianjin and 9 in Guangdong, distributed among the production center of suppliers such as SEMCO, TAIYO, WALSIN, FENGHUA, and VIIYONG The current situation will once again test the operation and risk management of MLCC suppliers as they disperse production hubs and back each other in terms of production capacity  These plans have become an important 2-3 year strategy for MLCC suppliers It is worth noting that the recent pandemic outbreak in Tianjin, China is intensifying Samsung, which is located in the Tianjin Economic-Technological Development Area, is currently operating normally However, as the Winter Olympics opening ceremony draws near, China has stepped up its zero-COVID policy In order to avoid a situation in which employees are unable to return to the factory due to a positive COVID test in the area where they reside, some production line employees have been temporarily living in the factory Korean executives are also living in the factory to enhance response times to rapidly developing circumstances In addition, the Philippines, one of the major production centers of MLCC in Southeast Asia, has also experienced a sharp increase in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases since January this year Murata and Samsung, who currently have factories in the region, have not reported the impact of the local pandemic and TrendForce will continue to monitor these two industry players moving forward For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

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