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Press Releases
In the Era of Energy Storage, Global Installed Electrochemical Energy Storage Capacity Estimated to reach 1160GWh in 2030, Says TrendForce

2022/07/28

Energy

Large-scale utilization of renewable energy is the fundamental path to achieving a comprehensive decarbonization of the power grid During this process, new energy storage technology represented by electrochemical energy storage has become an important cornerstone for the sustained growth in the proportion of installed renewable energy According to TrendForce statistics, global installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage is expected to reach approximately 65GWh in 2022 and 1,160Gwh by 2030, of which 70% of storage demand originates from the power generation side, which is the primary source of momentum supporting the installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage TrendForce indicates, the global power generation structure is still dominated by fossil energy at this stage but with the future advancement of net-zero carbon emission targets in various countries around the world, the proportion of renewable energy in the power system will grow further In order to overcome the intermittency and volatility of wind and solar power inherent with large-scale access to new energy generation and electricity consumption, the entire power system will undergo a transition from "power source, grid, load" to "power source, grid, load, energy storage" Energy storage will become the fourth basic element of a new power system and new energy storage technology will become a driving force for decarbonization It is worth noting that the applications of energy storage involve various power scenarios such as generation side, grid side, user side, and distributed micro-grid The diversity of application scenarios determines the diversification of energy storage technologies Electrochemical energy storage technologies represented by lithium-ion batteries, sodium-ion batteries, flow batteries, etc have achieved rapid development domestically and abroad in recent years and their scale is moving from megawatt-level demonstration applications to gigawatt-level applications Specifically, thanks to the rapid development of power batteries, the lithium-ion battery industrial chain has entered a mature stage of commercialization and its application in the field of energy storage is also mainstream in the electrochemical energy storage market, with a market share of more than 90% However, due to constraints on lithium resources in recent years, the cost of using lithium-ion batteries has risen significantly In terms of sodium-ion batteries, although industrial layout is still in its infancy, compared with high-priced lithium resources, the advantages of its abundant raw material resources will gradually surface in large-scale applications and is expected to complement lithium-ion batteries in the future As for flow batteries, since this type of battery can better meet the long-term energy storage (energy storage duration ≥ 4h) needs of power systems, it will also usher in development opportunities in applications for large-capacity long-term energy storage in the future Raw materials utilized in flow batteries such as all-vanadium and zinc-bromine are readily available and easy to recycle and have entered the stage of demonstration applications For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Green Energy Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Explosive Inflationary Pressure and Slumping Consumer Demand, Global TV Shipments Fight to Hold at 200 Million Units in 2022, Says Trendforce

2022/07/26

Consumer Electronics

According to TrendForce research, global TV shipments in 2H22 reached 4517 million units, falling 5% QoQ and 68% YoY This was the first time shipments fell below a record low of 46 million units in the second quarter The economies of Europe and the United States have been hit by rising inflation and interest rate hikes In addition, China has been affected by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and has repeatedly implemented measures such as lockdowns and a dynamic zero-COVID policy These three major TV sales regions are facing different facet of economic issues, seriously affecting overall shipments and sales TV shipments from Samsung and LG, mainly sold in Europe and the United States, were revised downward by nearly 30% in 2Q22 and, with a combined market share of nearly 32%, this development sent shockwaves through on the market TrendForce further indicates, as the world was enveloped by inflation this year, global TV shipments reached 9272 million units in 1H22, a decrease of 58% YoY Under the sustained influence of inflation and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, shrinking consumer budgets mean TV sales have missed forecasts, causing inventory levels to rise It has become a foregone conclusion that there will be no peak in the 2H22 peak season for TV shipments Therefore, TrendForce once again revises this year's TV shipments down to 202 million units, a decrease of 38% YoY Although TV brands are actively creating new promotion opportunities, if results are not as expected, continued risk of annual shipment volume being downgraded to below 200 million units cannot be rule out Shipments from international brands fail to meet expectations, Hisense leaps into second place for LCD TVs Both TV panel prices and shipping costs have fallen significantly this year, helping brands increase promotions in terminal markets However, rising inflation in Europe and the United States has caused a sustained rise in terminal inventory, so destocking has become TV brands’ primary goal this year The two major TV brands Samsung and LG are primarily sold in North America and Europe and have borne the brunt of market forces since they account for nearly 50% of shipments Samsung will face a battle to hold its shipments at 38 million units this year, a decrease of 8% YoY Although LG maintained marginal growth in OLED TV shipments, due to the rapid decline in demand for LCD TVs, annual shipments could not escape contraction, reaching 2574 million units, a decrease of 116% YoY, and dropping LG’s LCD TV shipments to fourth place for the first time Hisense's sub-brand Vidda focuses on cost-effective products and has successfully gained favor with young and frugal bourgeoisie in the Chinese market Hisense's shipments this year are estimated to reach 2276 million units, an annual increase of 43% Not only is Hisense the only brand to grow among the five major brands, it has for the first time, simultaneously taken second place in LCD TV shipments TCL has actively cultivated overseas markets in recent years and, currently, its proportion of export sales has reached 75% However, sluggish demand in Europe and the United States has indirectly affected TCL's shipments to a tune of 218 million units this year, a decrease of 36% YoY Although Xiaomi's domestic market share is being gradually eroded by Vidda, the company is fortunate that demand in the Indian market has recovered this year, acting as a backstop for this year's shipments to remain flat, reaching 1306 million units OLED TV market squeezed by falling LCD TV panel pricing, 2022 growth rate to contract to 78% Terminal TV sales were weak this year but panel manufacturers continue to invest in new production capacity, resulting in an expansion of the supply/demand glut ratio of TV panels and whole devices to 35%, the most severe oversupply in the past five years As a result, the price of LCD TV panels has been in a sustained decline since 2H21 This year's decline has caused LCD TV prices to not only fall below the lows of 2019, but also blow through cash costs TrendForce forecasts LCD TV shipments at approximately 195 million units this year, down 41% YoY On the other hand, LG Display, a major supplier of OLED TVs, maintained its quotations through product specification upgrades this year but the price gap between OLED and LCD TV panels continued to widen In terms of the price of 55-inch UHD panels, the price differential between the two has expanded from a multiple of 18 to 48 this year, which not only caused Samsung to delay its 2022 mass production schedule, but also lead to the annual growth rate of OLED TVs contracting to single digits at 78% and 723 million units LG has a market share of 58% in OLED TVs and SONY maintains a 20% share Ultimately, Samsung delayed the launch of its white OLED TVs for a year With only QD OLEDs acting as a backstop this year, the company’s market share reached 6% For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
LCD Monitor Demand Continues to Weaken in 2H22, Annual Shipments at Only 139.9 Million Units, Says TrendForce

2022/07/21

Display

According to TrendForce research, global LCD monitor shipments reached 723 million units in 1H22, a level on par with to the same period in 2021 Certain whole devices orders in 4Q21 were deferred to 1Q22 due to logistics and transportation issues In addition, some brands felt optimistic regarding the outlook for 2022, so they initiated aggressive promotions to stimulate sales in 1Q22 Although the Russian-Ukrainian war and rising inflation have seriously impacted demand in the European consumer market since Q2, demand for business models is still positive, which in turn bridges the gap left by the consumer market Looking forward to LCD monitor market trends in 2H22, TrendForce indicates, since most orders for business models had been digested by the end of 2Q22, coupled with the sluggishness of new orders, overall business demand momentum has not been as good as in 1H22 Consumer models are affected by rising inflation and interest rate hikes in the United States and market consumption continues in lethargy LCD monitor shipments are expected to decrease by 54% and 24% QoQ in 3Q22 and 4Q22, respectively The proportion of shipments in the first and second half of the year will fall at approximately 517: 483 At present, the shortage of cargo containers and port congestion has eased In 2Q22, the transit time of whole LCD monitor devices from China to North America and Europe decreased by approximately 2 to 3 weeks compared to 1Q22 In addition, as demand continues to weaken, branded manufacturers’ whole device inventory levels have soared The fastest way for brands to reduce on hand inventory is to curtail the purchasing of front-end panels, components, and SI whole devices and introduce aggressive promotions to stimulate sales TrendForce forecasts LCD monitor shipments will reach 1399 million units in 2022, a decrease of 35% YoY However, the shipment strategy branded manufacturers use to control inventory may herald a peakless peak season and a winter of discontent for panel makers and SIs in 2H22 For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Supply Chain Overstocked, NAND Flash 3Q22 Price Drop to Broaden to 8~13%, Says TrendForce

2022/07/19

Semiconductors

According to TrendForce, market oversupply intensified in 2Q22 due to lagging demand and continued NAND Flash output and process advancement The market consensus is a disappointing 2H22 peak season for consumer electronics including notebooks, TVs, and smartphones Material inventory levels continue to rise and has become a risk to the supply chain Due to slow destocking among distributors and a conservative stocking approach among clients, inventory problems have bubbled over upstream onto the supply side and sellers are under increased pressure to sell TrendForce estimates, due to the rapid deterioration of the balance between supply and demand, the drop in NAND Flash pricing will expand to 8~13% in 3Q22, and this decline may continue into 4Q22 In terms of Client SSD, due to weak consumer demand, various PC brands have significantly reduced their purchase order volume in 3Q22 in order to digest 1H22 SSD inventory As suppliers shift focus to 176-layer client SSD, 176-layer QLC SSDs have begun to ship, and YMTC looks to expand shipment of notebook client SSDs in 2H22, price competition has become increasingly fierce, forcing manufacturers to increase price concessions to incentivize clients to up order volume Thus, the decline in client SSD pricing is expected to expand to 8~13% in 3Q22 In terms of Enterprise SSD, purchasing momentum in 2H22 will be inferior to 1H22, mainly due to the impact of the overall economic recession on server brands’ shipments of whole devices Corporate order volume continues to decline, simultaneously affecting the purchasing momentum of enterprise SSDs in 3Q22 Secondly, orders from cloud service providers in China were weak in 3Q22 and demand driven by shipments of next-generation server platforms failed to meet expectations In order to boost the growth of enterprise SSD revenue, suppliers expect to stimulate sales through more generous price negotiations However, buyers are currently unwilling to expand procurement, so enterprise SSD price declines are estimated to broaden to 5~10% in 3Q22 In terms of eMMC, weak demand for major applications such as chromebooks and TVs has induced buyers to carefully control inventory, so it is hard to see any signs of life in eMMC pricing Although manufacturers’ long-term plans involve a continued reduction in the supply of 2D eMMC products to keep prices stable End customers and module customers are focused on destocking due to the recent overall downward trend in demand Eventually, oversupply in the eMMC market will become more serious than expected Therefore, the price of eMMC in 3Q22 will drop by another 8-13% In terms of UFS, since China’s 618 e-commerce promotions have not induced recovery in smartphone demand, destocking of whole devices has become a top priority for Chinese OEMs Sluggish demand has not only impacted Chinese smartphone brands Even Samsung, which is mainly focused on markets excluding China, has warned that the demand outlook is clouded, leading to a sustained weakening of the UFS market in 2H22 Originally, sellers held the view that price concessions would not stimulate demand and were unwilling to negotiate pricing With rising inventory pressure, reducing prices to capture sales is inevitable The decline in UFS pricing is estimated to expand to 8~13% in 3Q22 In terms of NAND Flash wafers, a rebound in demand during peak season and the lifting of lockdowns in China were originally forecast to refresh the market However, demand continues to deteriorate and inventory at module factories and end customers remains high, resulting in a sustained decline in wafer quotations At the same time, manufacturers continue to expand the supply of wafers and process optimization continued to improve, resulting in magnified inventory pressure at the factory end The decline in NAND Flash wafer pricing is estimated to expand to 15~20% in 3Q22 For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/ The Webinar, ”COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar: Diverse Market Opportunities Generated by Applications of Cyber-Physical Systems” will start from June 15, 2022 The TrendForce research team including Mark Liu, Caron Ju, Bryan Ao, and Alex Chen will present speeches regarding memory, servers, and datacenters, respectively 【Info】 When:Wednesday, June, 15 Where:COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar (Free to access)

Press Releases
Weak Demand and Redlining Inventory, Panel Makers Forced to Reduce Utilization, Says TrendForce

2022/07/18

Display

Moving into 2H22, terminal brands continue to adjust their inventory, not only weakening panel demand, but also inducing a sustained drop in panel quotations The sharp increase in operating pressure affecting panel manufacturers has forced the display industry to restrain production According to TrendForce's "Monthly Panel Supplier Utilization Report," utilization rate (calculated by the volume of glass input) in 3Q22 is expected to fall to 70%, a substantial decrease of nearly 73 percentage points from 2Q22 TrendForce indicates, border controls and lockdowns have led to a disruption of logistics and labor due to the impact of the pandemic in the past two years In order to avoid production and shipment gridlock, branded manufacturers overstocked from distribution channels to components However, as logistics and transportation conditions have improved, previously prepared materials have subsequently arrived in relevant warehouses or ports As pandemic induced demand subsides, terminal sales have suffered due to rising global inflation and the Russian-Ukrainian war As a result, the inventory problem continues to deteriorate and all aspects of the overall supply chain has entered red alert Since this type of situation applied not only to a single application, utilization rate is reduced whether it is Gen5, primarily used in producing laptops, or large-size LCD monitors and TVs None of the large generational fabs were spared TrendForce indicates that the utilization rate of Gen5 to Gen75 is expected to decrease by 77% percentage points to 637% and the utilization rate of Gen8 to Gen105 will decrease by 7 percentage points to 75% in 3Q22 More than 90% of the Gen105 utilization rate used to produce TVs is expected to drop by 178 percentage points QoQ, which also highlights the continuing pessimistic demand for TV panels in 3Q22 As far as panel makers are concerned, depreciation and amortization pressure on Chinese panel makers is more severe than that of other panel makers due to the construction of new factories In addition, looking at total shipments of larger-sized applications (TVs, monitor panels, and notebooks), Chinese panel makers account for more than half the market, so when the bottom drops out, impact on these companies will be greater than on competitors Looking at the three leading Chinese panel manufacturers, although BOE’s capacity allocation is very flexible, a drop of 4 percentage points in overall utilization rate cannot be ruled out in 3Q22 At the same time, China Star Optoelectronics (CSOT) and Huike Optoelectronics (HKC) will not only readjust their older factories in 3Q22 but also slow the rate at which new factories ramp up The overall operating watermark of these two panel manufacturers is estimated to decrease by 133 and 74 percentage points, respectively Although the pressure of depreciation and amortization on Taiwanese manufacturer AUO is small, in response to changes in market demand, the company had already started production adjustment in 2Q22 It is expected to continue implementing this strategy in 3Q22 with overall utilization rate falling to 50% On the other hand, Innolux expects overall utilization to drop by 67 percentage points QoQ Japanese panel manufacturer Sharp is at a relative disadvantage in terms of overhead, and its customer concentration is too high Its major branded clients have canceled orders, allowing inventory to stack up quickly Therefore, Sharp has only just announced that it will begin to aggressively scale-down in its Japanese production line in July In turn, the company’s overall utilization rate decreased by 263 percentage points to 593% in 3Q22 LG Display, a Korean panel maker, is expected to maintain a similar operating level as in 2Q22 after a sustained contraction in LCD production capacity due to a strategic shift TrendForce indicates, if panel makers do not wish to face the risk of high inventories at the beginning of 2023, they should maintain reduced operations in 4Q22 in order to eliminate existing panel inventory Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the utilization rate of LCD Gen5 (including) and above large generational fabs will maintain the same level of operation as in 3Q22 In the past, production cuts were the main response whenever the market was oversupplied However, with future production capacity still growing, the speed at which brands deplete their inventories and global political and economic trends will be key factors affecting the future display market If market conditions continue to deteriorate, it cannot be ruled out that the industry will face another reshuffle, setting off a further wave of mergers and acquisitions For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

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