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Press Releases
TrendForce: 1H'Nov Prices Stay Flat, Weak Market Demand Increases Pressures for Price Adjustments

2013/11/21

Semiconductors

According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, the upcoming off peak quarter and underwhelming worldwide demand have made manufacturers relatively unwilling to agree on the 1H'Nov contract prices Due to the persistence of such a situation, along with SK Hynix's strategic decision to lock its Q4 prices, the contract prices have remained mostly flat The 4GB average prices stayed relatively unchanged at US $32, whereas the 2GB prices remained at US$1775 Looking at the market, even though SK Hynix is still in the process of recovering, its wafer production levels have reached 30K during October In November, that number is expected to rise up to 40K-60K The full recovery of the Wuxi plant is currently projected to take place in 1Q14, despite the apparent shipment delays for various necessary equipments In an effort to ease the market shortages resulting from the fire accident, SK Hynix has immediately activated the DRAM productions at the M10 and M12 plants in Korea, which enabled output to gradually increase in November The gradual easing of the supply is already becoming evident in the spot market: the 2Gb prices have dropped from a high of US$ 218 in early November down to approximately US$ 198, a 92% decrease The 4Gb prices, on the other hand, officially decreased by 34% to below US$ 4 Judging from the disruptions to the price uptrend that followed SK Hynix's fire accident and the underwhelming demand in the market, the Q4 contract prices are likely to either remain steady or experience a slight decline Strategy of Three Largest DRAM Manufacturers Becomes Clear under Oligopoly Market Structure, 2014 Market Momentum Likely to Receive Boost Following the DRAM market's transformation into an oligopoly, the three major DRAM manufacturers' 2014 strategies have become increasingly more transparent This is not only expected to influence the future development of the DRAM market in 2014, but also affect the growth of the market's largest DRAM manufacturing companies Samsung, as an example, has decided to increase production at the Line 12 and 16 plants as a means to compensate for the potential wafer losses resulting from the 25nm manufacturing process rather than to simply expand capacity While the Korean company's DRAM wafer output is expected to be the same in 2014 as it was during 2013, the main focuses of its product mix will likely shift towards Mobile DRAM and Server DRAM With regard to SK Hynix, given that its Wuxi plant has been gradually making a recovery following the fire accident, as many as 30K wafers have been produced by the company during October With its Korean plants also increasing total DRAM production, it should not be a problem for the company’s wafer production output to reach pre-fire accident levels by the end of the year As the Wuxi plant undergoes a possible full recovery in 1Q14, the production at SK Hynix's Korean plants is expected to gradually decrease, and SK Hynix will begin to focus on advancing the manufacturing processes for its Mobile DRAM and PC DRAM product lines Following Micron's and Elpida's official announcement of their merger in 8/1, the two companies --now collectively known as the new Micron group-- will begin to develop and migrate towards the 20nm manufacturing process The actual trial productions involving the said technology will likely be delayed to 1Q14, given the potential difficulties involved in the migration process Nevertheless, the new Micron group’s major product development plans will remain largely unchanged, and, like Samsung, the major products of its future product mix are set to be Mobile DRAM and Server DRAM Looking towards 2014, it appears the focuses of the main DRAM manufacturers will mostly be on adjusting product type and manufacturing technologies In the event that the manufacturers' capacities are not expanded any further, the 2014 growth rate is likely to be only 28%, which is far lower than the 50% and above growth observed in the past (DRAM growth has been below 30% in the past three years) As the three biggest DRAM manufacturers begin to focus on profits more than market share, the market has a legitimate chance of returning to a steady state

Press Releases
TrendForce: LED For TV Backlight Applications Price Plunge Eases in 4Q13

2013/11/20

LED

Although, mid and large sized LED backlight market was affected by the economic downturn, LED prices for backlight applications overall declined stably at 3-6% in 4Q13, according to LEDinside’s 4Q13 LED price trend report LED prices for lighting applications also maintained a slow downward slide The extent of price falls varied among different product specs TV backlight market eases, but price quotes remain relatively stable Annual TV shipment volume was lowered to 203 million sets in 2013 with Year-On-Year (YOY) -16%, said LEDinside This is the first time in recent years that TV shipment volumes have experienced negative growth However, LED for backlight applications 4Q13 price quotes remained stable, with a range of decline between 3-6% Worth noting, LED for TV backlight has begun integrating specs including 7030 LED for edge- type LED TV; 7020 LED for ultra-slim bezel type LED TV; for direct-type LED TV applications the 3528 LED plus 3030 and 3535 LEDs that have recently sold well in China LEDinside pointed out, while LED packager manufacturers cannot avoid the continual LED price slides, manufacturers production can reach economies of scale and optimize cost control and luminous efficacy as LED specs are simplified and integrated LED package manufacturers no longer need to launch brand new specs annually Weak smartphone Christmas orders cause LEDs for smartphones to fall 6-8% in 4Q13 Mid and large sized backlight market is not the only anemic market Smartphone shipments have been lower than expected in 3Q13, and 4Q13 Christmas order pull also appeared rather weak In 4Q13, global smartphone shipment volume reached 7% Quarter-on- Quarter (QOQ) to about 260 million LED prices for smartphone applications dropped 6-8% in 4Q13 In the field of current smartphone, tablet, and laptop specs, the major package has been 06t LED with brightness between 6-8 lumens (lm) This is due to smartphones aggressive replacement of feature phones and continual growth in Chinese white-box smartphone shipment volumes Tablets and laptops have started to replace 3014 package specs with 06t LED On the other hand, ultrabook brands have also begun introducing low voltage and high brightness 06t LED LED lighting prices fall at different rates In the lighting segment, many package manufacturers were able to keep price levels or experienced only slight price declines for mid and high power products in 4Q13 Price fluctuations were considerably limited this quarter for high-power LEDs The rate of price falls has slowed since top brands including Philips Lumileds, Osram and others still rely on loyal customers to maintain market share and order visibility , Fewer manufacturers have lowered prices for new products On the other hand, the market is increasing its emphasis on 1W 3030 spec products As a result, LED manufacturers have released similar products specs, and price drops have exceeded 10% As for mid-power 5630 LED product prices, impact from manufacturers release of second generation products has led to slowly declined

Press Releases
TrendForce: Mobile DRAM to Become Mainstream in 2014, Global Revenue Increases by 14 % in 3Q13

2013/11/19

Semiconductors

According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, the mobile DRAM price reductions have eased due to the increased number of Q3 smartphone shipments and SK Hynix's Wuxi plant fire accident Looking at the market, the Q3 mobile DRAM revenues have jumped by an estimated 14% QoQ to US$ 33 billion, representing more than 30% of the entire market's DRAM revenue The revenue number has a chance of increasing further should future shipments continue to rise Observing the mobile DRAM companies' rankings, TrendForce's assistant vice president Avril Wu notes that the two main Korean manufacturers' market shares are continuing to grow and currently add up to a total of 763% Given that Samsung's market share alone is already more than 50%, both its pricing and product strategies are expected to affect the future productions of mobile DRAM considerably In the periods ahead, further impacts on the mobile DRAM industry are likely to arise from the changes experienced by Micron's supply chain following its official merger with Elpida With the potential changes affecting the structure of market demand, the shipment of mobile DRAM is likely to officially surpass that of PC DRAM in 2014 Samsung to Use Third Party Components for Smartphones, SK Hynix to be the Greatest Beneficiary Samsung's mobile DRAM market share has improved from 503 % in 2Q13 to 513% in the following quarter Given that the Korean company's Galaxy devices are expected to use mobile DRAM components from both SK Hynix and Micron, TrendForce projects that Samsung's future market share will end up being around 40%~50% With its emphasis shifting from market share to profits, Samsung will likely place an increased amount of focus on improving the time-to-market (TTM) for its next generation LPDDR3 and 6Gb mono products SK Hynix's mobile DRAM market share appears to be largely unchanged from the previous quarter, decreasing slightly from 257% to 25% Its mobile DRAM revenue, on the other hand, showed an increase of approximately 108% QoQ In China, the growth of SK Hynix's smartphone market share appears to be persisting thanks to the reservations various branded manufacturers hold towards Samsung’s components Looking at the future, both SK Hynix and Samsung have equally impressive plans for their mobile DRAM products: both are in the process of migrating towards the 25nm manufacturing process, and both have already delivered samples of LPDDR3 6 Gb to their clients The distance between the two companies will likely grow smaller as Samsung begins to look elsewhere for its mobile components New Micron Group Shows Potential despite Shrinking Market Share The new Micron group's mobile DRAM market share – combined for the first time for the purpose of assessing the Q3 revenue rankings — has reached 221% in 3Q13, while its Q3 revenues grew by 107% QoQ The increase in its revenues is mainly due to the growing demand for Apple products during the peak quarter, which prompted Rexchip, Elpida’s subsidiary branch in Taiwan, to take steps to raise its entire mobile DRAM production Other than smartphones and tablets, products such as Apple's MacBook Air (which uses LPDDR3) and higher DRAM capacity per unit are also likely to strengthen Micron's future development In the periods ahead, it is believed that the merger between Micron and Elpida will help enable the two companies’ mobile DRAM product line to be more complete The MCP and eMCP products, in particular, are likely to provide a noticeable boost to the new Micron group’s 2014 revenues Taiwanese DRAM Manufacturers to Direct Attention towards Large Density Mobile DRAM and China Market, Partner with Module Manufacturers on eMCP Winbond's mobile DRAM revenue has decreased by approximately 20% compared to the previous quarter, giving it a global market share of 07% and a mobile DRAM revenue share of 13% Due to the changes taking place in the entire global smartphone market and the lowered shipments of feature phones, the shipment performances of small density DRAM have become increasingly weaker Other than developing various mid to low density mobile DRAM for 4G/LTE Basebands, Winbond has begun to shift much of its attention towards the larger density LPDDR1 and LPDDR2 products, and is currently getting ready for the mass production phase In the future, the Taiwanese company is likely to begin taking advantage of the foundry services provided by Powerchip, which uses a more advanced manufacturing process This will help the company lower its overall manufacturing cost Looking at Nanya, given that its mobile DRAM has officially entered mass production, its Q3 revenues were able to jump by nearly 200% QoQ Its market share, meanwhile, rose from 03% in 2Q13 to 09% in the following quarter At the moment, LPDDR2 4Gb is among the notable products that are ready to be mass produced (the mass production of the other major product line, LPDDR3 4Gb, is likely to follow soon after) With Nanya's mainstream manufacturing process involving 30nm technology, the company has a legitimate shot of competing effectively against a number of first tier manufacturers Nanya's current plans are to focus on promoting its mobile DRAM products in China and to work with first tier module manufacturing plants on making eMCP products

Press Releases
TrendForce: 1H’Nov. NAND Flash Contract Price Drops 5-7% due to Weak Q4 Demand

2013/11/19

Semiconductors

According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, the 1H’Nov NAND Flash contract prices have dropped 5%-7% compared to 2H’Oct This is mainly due to the weaker than expected demand for NAND Flash products during the traditional peak-fourth quarter as well as the manufacturers’ high inventory levels, which reduced the overall willingness to purchase new components Looking at the supply side, in the periods following the Wuxi plant’s fire accident, SK Hynix and Samsung each allocated a respective 30% and 5% of their NAND Flash capacity to DRAM This caused the overall NAND Flash supplies to drop in 3Q13 and 4Q13, and led 2013 NAND Flash industry bit growth to be adjusted from 408% to 403% The biggest reason for the downward NAND Flash growth is perhaps the unpromising market demand in 4Q13 Consumer demand has been mostly weak in the UFD market due to the underwhelming market penetration of USB 30 products For the memory card market, demand failed to improve even when price reductions were implemented for the major NAND Flash products As for the system market, given that the global economy has been slow during 4Q13, many smartphone and tablet PC manufacturers have remained conservative towards the traditional Thanksgiving and Christmas sales periods As a result of this, an increasing number of manufacturers are beginning to make downward adjustments to their target shipments Along with the manufacturers’ high inventory levels, the conservative attitude displayed towards the market is essentially what’s causing the NAND Flash demand from system clients to be weaker than expected Taking into account the aforementioned supply and demand situations, TrendForce believes the 1H’Nov NAND Flash contract prices will continue to fall Towards the end of 2013, the weaker than expected Q4 demand, the upcoming off-peak quarter, and the limited NAND Flash contract price momentum are all expected to the keep NAND Flash prices down    

Press Releases
TrendForce: Global LED Lighting Product Shipment in 2014 is Estimated to Increase 68% Y-o-Y, Reaching USD 17.8 Billion

2013/11/18

LED

It is pointed out in the latest silver member report issued by LEDinside that global LED lighting penetration rate is rapidly growing According to the data from LEDinside, a research division of TrendForce, LED lighting market value in 2014 will come to 178 billion USD, and the total shipment of LED lighting products will reach 132 billion units, with a 68% YoY growth LEDinside points out that the global LED lighting product replacement tide is caused by the rapidly falling LED product prices With replacement lamp being the most obvious, bulbs and tubes are the most popular ones in the market, which account for 38% and 24% of LED lighting product demand in 2013 respectively In addition, the demand for LED luminaires in future will gradually rise, especially that the products combined with intelligent system will gradually draw greater attention from the market, therefore, the proportion of LED luminaires is expected to increase year by year Source: LEDinside Observing from regional LED lighting market demand, in North America, the government's efforts to support the LED lighting is gradually increasing, Energy Star and other subsidies have grown rapidly, prompting further reduce in the price of LED lighting products CREE and other manufacturers are optimistic about the LED lighting market development in 2014, and it is expected that the sales growth of replacement lamps will be the next business growth focus According to the data from LEDinside, the growth rate of LED lighting market demand volume in North America is expected to reach 72% in 2014 In addition, in Latin American countries like Brazil, LED lighting market is growing rapidly, especially the LED commercial lighting market, and the growth rate of LED lighting market demand volume is expected to reach 64% in 2014 As a mature market, although Europe doesn't have massive subsidies, its high electricity price and the lighting culture differences market the demand of commercial lighting and architectural lighting market to continue As the ban of incandescent lamp gradually being implemented in the next few years, it is estimated that the market will continue to show steady growth trend The growth rate of LED lighting market demand volume in Europe is expected to reach 69% in 2014 In terms of the Chinese market, not only the emerging LED lighting manufacturers actively extend LED lighting market, traditional lighting manufacturers with own brand and channel advantages also actively expand LED lighting business through both online and stores Moreover, the Chinese government is trying to play an active role to promote the LED industry development through subsidy policies, and resolve overcapacity and business bankruptcy caused by excessive subsidies for the upstream LED industry simultaneously It is estimated by LEDinside that the growth rate of LED lighting market demand volume in China is expected to reach 86% in 2014

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