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Press Releases
TrendForce: LCD Monitor Brands Boost Year-end Shipment, Lifting October Result

2013/11/29

Display

According to the survey by Witsview, the display division of the global intelligence provider TrendForce, the global top ten LCD monitor brands’ shipment in October 2013 rose 02% from September and dipped from the same period last year SI makers’ October shipment declined 44% from September but grew 51% YoY Despite most brands boosted shipment in September, the shipments in October continued to rise due to: 1American brands’ attempt to lift sales performance for the year-end or quarter-end financial settlement purpose before the year-end shopping season; 2 Samsung's continuously boosting shipment; 3 Lenovo’s strengthening shipment as the Chinese market enters the peak season LCD monitor SI makers’ shipment was stronger than expected in October, which declined only 44%, narrower than the 7% record in previous years, as SI makers’ shipment in October is usually affected by the factories closed for National Holidays and clients’ advanced procurement in September This year’s shipment benefitted from Dell’s strong procurement and some makers’ ambition to lift shipment volume in Q4 to compensate the weaker-than-expected performance in Q3 WitsView assistant research manager Anita Wang indicates despite of LCD monitor brands’ ideal performance in Q4, the smooth sales at the retailer end is the key If the sales during Black Friday and Christmas holidays is not well, the inventory at the retailers’ hands would need more time to digest, which will impact the procurement momentum in Q1 2014  2013 Top Ten Monitor Brands and SI Makers’ QoQ Shipments changes Source: WitsView

Press Releases
TrendForce: NAND Flash Market to Show Steady Growth in 2014, SSD Key to Momentum

2013/11/27

Semiconductors

According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, the price movements in the NAND Flash market are expected to remain steady thanks to the industry’s stable supply and demand With the end-demand momentum being certain, TrendForce projects that the total NAND Flash market value will grow by 133% YoY to US$ 28 billion This would mark the second straight year during which the NAND Flash market displayed positive, double digit growth Looking at the supply side, given the amount of NAND Flash capacity that has been allocated to DRAM following the fire accident at SK Hynix’s Wuxi plant, the 2013 NAND Flash output has been revised downwards to 20,466 M 16 Gb equiv, a 403% YoY decrease For the entire year, the wafer production scale (12 inch equivalent) is only expected to be 124 million units, which represents a mere 32% increase from 2012 and suggests for a less severe oversupply situation in 4Q13 and 1H14 With the total NAND Flash capacity currently anticipated to return to pre-fire accident levels during 2H14 and various NAND Flash manufacturers planning to increase capacity in the same period, TrendForce believes that the volatility in the NAND Flash market will end up being relatively less severe in 1H14 compared to the previous years This is expected to be the case even with the heightened supply of NAND Flash products during the traditional off-peak quarters With regard to the manufacturing side, considering the anticipated rise in the 1xm-and-under technology migrations, more and more NAND Flash manufacturers are expected to begin producing eMMC and SSD products using the 1xnm manufacturing process The increased use of the manufacturing technology is currently expected to contribute to the furthered decline in manufacturing cost Looking at 3D-NAND Flash, even though samples of the product are already being delivered to clients for testing, a considerable amount of time will still be needed for the product’s overall yield rate and efficiency to be improved The earliest period during which 3D-NAND Flash products can be mass produced, as such, is either 4Q14 or 2015 Taking into account all of the aforementioned factors, it appears unlikely that the NAND Flash vendors will change their usual strategy of sustaining profits through supply regulations For 2014, NAND Flash output bit growth is forecast at only 363%, which represents a new low in five years TrendForce expects demand bit growth to be approximately 376% in 2014 Looking at the memory card and UFD markets, the penetration rates of both USB 30 and SD30 have been rising thanks to the products’ lowered manufacturing costs Due to the growing shipments of tablets and smartphones, applications of eMMC, eMCP, and SSD products also experienced continuous growth Looking towards next year, TrendForce believes the total smartphone shipments will break the 1 billion mark and arrive at 1169 billion units For tablets (including those manufactured by white-box brands), shipments are estimated to rise by approximately 18% YoY to 219 million units Thanks to the overall momentum provided by the aforementioned products, 2014 eMMC shipment growth is estimated to reach up to 36%         With the SSD format able to exert noticeable impact on the notebook and desktop industries, and with Intel and various NAND Flash vendors pushing for the adoption of the “M2” SSD format, TrendForce believes that the prices of PC Client SSDs will continue to rise As for the enterprise SSDs, due to the rise in cloud computing and the growing popularity of smartphone/tablet apps, the requirements for server and storage based functions have grown considerably Data management centers and global server businesses are among the organizations that are gradually paying attention to enterprise SSDs as well as raising the number of relevant purchase orders Throughout the course of this year, Seagate and Western Digital have also strengthened their own industry level storage lines through in-house development or relevant acquisitions With the said developments in mind, TrendForce predicts that the SSD NAND Flash consumption will rise from this year’s 13% to 25% in 2014 The growth is likely to be higher than the existing demand for other NAND Flash products In the short and medium terms, TrendForce believes that the effects of the upcoming off-peak quarters will affect the NAND Flash market and lead to a slight oversupply situation In the long run, NAND Flash application will become increasingly more diverse In addition to the attachment type UFD and memory cards and system products such as smartphones and tablets, an increasing amount of attention are also being placed on industry-level storage systems Along with the effects of the manufacturers’ supply regulations, we believe the end-demand for these multi-purpose products will enable NAND Flash markets to grow at a more stable pace throughout 2014 On the whole, the industry’s supply and demand is expected to remain healthy

Press Releases
TrendForce: New Era Approaches as Gross Margin and Quantity of Lithium Battery Decrease

2013/11/25

Energy

According to EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce, cylindrical battery price performance reflects a downtrend due to Polymer battery supply crowd out and thinner consumer electronic devices In addition, medium-high capacity battery (28~30Ah) can reduce the number of pieces used Under the circumstance where cost remains unchanged, medium-high capacity battery has gradually become a mainstream product More manufacutrers have started to enter this market segment, which leads to the decreased medium-high capacity battery price It’s projected that cylindrical battery price will decline by about 28% in 4Q13 Clearer Battery Cell Segmentation Currently, battery cells are segmented by capacity, which can be divided into three types – high, medium, and low capacity Although >30Ah high capacity cells can be used on cylindrical batteries, the cost threshold of cylindrical batteries is too high and they would be difficult to meet the lightweight requirements of high-end products Thus, polymer batteries are more suitable for high-end products As for 28~30Ah medium-high capacity cells, their production technology is quite similar to that of 22Ah Also, the unit price is not that different from 22Ah, and their volumes can be reduced efficiently Therefore, 28~30Ah is the best choice for middle-end products to maintain cost and reduce volume Last but not least, standard batteries are more suitable for low-end products which are more sensitive to cost Due to standard battery’s larger market share, it’s more likely to go into mass production But in terms of cost advantage, cylindrical battery seems to be the best choice in the short run Increased Penetration rate of High Capacity Cylindrical Battery EnergyTrend indicates that in terms of price, cylindrical battery reflects a downtrend from long-term perspective In 4Q13, the number of battery cells used in a laptop has been reduced from 6 pieces to 3~4 pieces Under the circumstance where endurance remains the same, the choosing of high capacity cells will definitely become a trend Hence, cell manufacturers have started to produce more high capacity cells following the increased demand and appropriate adjustment on the production line It in turn caused 28~30Ah battery cell price to decrease by 28% QoQ The supply and demand is relatively balanced for polymer batteries while the price is also showing steady decline (-2% QoQ) The price drop is likely to be caused by routine equipment amortization It’s estimated that the market share of polymer batteries will grow steadily due to the increased popularity of portable products However, apart from Apple, polymer battery applications will still be limited to high-end products So far, the biggest challenge for polymer batteries will be how to maintain stable supply while solving the inventory issues caused by customization  

Press Releases
TrendForce:LED Bulb Retail Price Steadily Decline in October, Shipment Volume Anticipated to Exponentially Increase in 2014

2013/11/25

LED

According to market intelligence organization Trendforce's LEDinside division's newest LED bulb retail findings for October 2013, global 40W equiv LED bulb ASP dipped 23 percent to US $158 (NT $466), with price decline most evident in the UK region Conversely, global 60W equiv LED bulb ASP rose slightly 12 percent to US $216 ASP for 40W equiv and 60W equiv LED bulbs has already dropped down to US $10 in most regions, according to observations by LEDinside Comparable prices with traditional energy saving bulbs have stimulated market demand LEDinside forecasts 2014 LED lighting product shipment volume to reach 132 billion units, a growth of 68 percent from 2013 Shipment volume for replacement light source products such as LED bulbs is especially anticipated to increase, with companies such as IKEA already distributing LED bulbs in mass Attitude towards LED lighting by traditional luminaire manufacturers such as Philips has become more aggressive Spurred by various large lighting brand manufacturers and terminal channels, 2014 LED bulb shipment volume is anticipated to grow exponentially 40W equiv LED bulb price decline most evident in UK Global 40W equiv LED bulb ASP dipped 23 percent to US $158, with price decline most evident in the UK region The lowest prices for 40W equiv LED bulbs had already dropped below US $10 in all the surveyed regions during October UK price declined 11 percent and pre-existing product prices steadily decreased, with largest decline seen in Samsung and Osram Price for 40W equiv LED bulb in UK dropped as low as US $81 US ASP for October slid 57 percent Pre-existing product prices steadily decreased and lowered prices for new items introduced this month US region 40W equiv LED bulb price dropped as low as US $9 Source:LEDinside Global 60W equiv LED bulb price fluctuates Global 60W equiv LED bulb ASP rose slightly 12 percent to US $216 With certain areas affected by exchange rate and ending of promotion for low-priced LED bulbs, 60W equiv LED bulb ASP increased slightly Source:LEDinside Price difference narrowed as the lowest prices of 40W equiv LED bulbs alldropped below US $10 in the surveyed regions Price decrease in October for 40W equiv LED bulbs was more evident with brands from each region dropping prices below US $10, and narrowing different region products’ price gap, observed LEDinside Price decrease was especially evident in UK where prices for certain pre-existing high priced items dipped and prices for already low priced items continued to drop Osram, Samsung, and LG all have products that are priced close to US $10 in the UK region In the US region, aside from low priced bulbs launched by Cree and Walmart recently, Philips and Ecosmart have also released products priced below US $10 for a long time

Press Releases
TrendForce: eMMC to Remain Mainstream Format from 2014~2016, UFS to Gain Momentum in 2016

2013/11/25

Semiconductors

According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, eMMC 45 has replaced eMMC 441 on a massive scale since 2H13, becoming the main storage format used in smartphones and tablet PCs Judging from the product strategies employed by eMMC vendors and AP chip manufacturers, it is predicted that eMMC 50 products will begin entering a heightened production phase in 2H14 For UFS, the format is not expected to gain much ground until 2016 The biggest difference between eMMC 45 and eMMC 441 lies in their maximum transfer speeds, which is approximately 200MB/s and 104MB/s, respectively In addition to fully utilizing NAND Flash functions such as ONFI/Toggle, eMMC 45 is also capable of supporting higher read/write speeds in smartphones and tablets The majority of the NAND Flash manufacturers of eMMC 45 products did not design-in for next-gen smartphone and tablet products until 1Q13 As such, eMMC 45 will only replace eMMC 441 as the market mainstream as smartphone/tablet OEMs begin promoting their new devices throughout the second half of 2013 In 2H13, major eMMC vendors have begun delivering samples of 1X nm class eMMC 50 products to their clients Looking at the product development plans of the smatphone and tablet AP chip manufacturers, it appears certain that eMMC 50 will be the successor to eMMC 45 Originally believed to have a shot at emerging throughout 2014-2015, TrendForce predicts that the UFS format will have to wait until at least 2016 before having a chance to compete with eMMC in the “high-end” smartphone and tablet markets The reasons for this are outlined below: 1、Product Efficiency Considerations The fastest transfer speed for eMMC 50 is approximately 400MB/s, which is twice the rate offered by eMMC 45 For the two major types of UFS interfaces, UFS 11 and UFS 20, the maximum transfer speed is 300MB/s and 1200MB/s, respectively The effectiveness of eMMC 50, as the numbers clearly demonstrate, falls between that of the UFS 11 and UFS 20 formats Nonetheless, eMMC 50 was able to get a head start in the market, given its superior speed over UFS 11 and the fact that JEDEC took longer to announce the specs format for UFS 20 than for eMMC 50 In an attempt to not let UFS 20 get too far ahead in terms of speed, JEDEC is taking notable steps to develop the specifications for the eMMC 5X format TrendForce believes that the format's speed will end up being at least 600MB/s, and that the competition between UFS 20 and eMMC 5X will be intense in the future periods 2、AP Chip Consideration     The format preferences held by AP chip manufacturers such as Qualcomm, nVidia, MTK, and Samsung all play a crucial role in determining whether smartphone and tablet manufacturers choose the eMMC or UFS interface Aside from Samsung’s 5420 and Qualcomm’s 8084 chips, both of which are likely to support the eMMC 50 and UFS 11 formats upon their release in 2014, other manufacturers are expected to stick to the eMMC 50 interface TrendForce’s current research suggests that Samsung will be the only eMMC supplier to promote UFS 11 products in 2014, and that the other suppliers will pass over UFS 11 in favor of waiting for the upgraded, more advanced UFS 20 format Considering the fact that UFS is completely different from eMMC in terms of overall structure and design, it is worth mentioning, also, that the former's development phase will inevitably take a long time for manufacturers, whether it is for the AP chips or Flash controller chips All in all, given that the vendors for UFS 11 products are limited, that the format’s effectiveness is less impressive than that of eMMC 50, and that its design can be relatively difficult to implement, eMMC 50 is likely to remain the go-to format for the majority of the AP chip manufacturers TrendForce believes 2015 will be the earliest year during which AP chip manufacturers will eventually begin supporting the UFS 20 format 3、Cost Consideration While the speed of UFS 20 is able to easily exceed 1000MB/s, its development cost (especially for the controller IC part) is noticeably high when compared to the eMMC 5X interface With the innovation in the high-end smartphone space slowing down and the low cost and mid-ranged market sectors expanding at a rapid pace, UFS 20 is likely to only be competitive against eMMC 5X in the high-end markets In the short run, the former is not likely to become mainstream within the industry Taking into account all of the three aforementioned factors --product efficiency, AP chip manufacturer preferences, and cost-- TrendForce projects that the UFS format may only be able to compete against eMMC following the release of UFS 20, and that the competition will be mostly concentrated in the high-end smartphone and tablet markets For now, eMMC will remain the market mainstream in the mid-to-low end market sectors The proportion of shipments that is expected be accounted for by UFS products in 2016 is approximately 10% The major suppliers of eMMC products —for example, Samsung, SK Hynix, Sandisk, Toshiba, Micron, and KSI— represent roughly 95% of the market, and are known to employ different types of product strategies With regard to the eMMC 50 products, Samsung, Toshiba, and Sandisk are all known for producing their controller chips in-house, while companies such as Micron and SK Hynix generally choose to outsource their production to third party manufacturers (despite their supposed interest in eventually creating in-house controller chips) SMI and Phison are currently the two more well known manufacturers in the eMMC controller IC design and outsourcing business In addition to these two companies, Alcor, Marvell, Solid State System, Skymedi, and StorArt also provide similar services, and are hoping to eventually grab a larger chunk of the market With competitive pressure arising from Samsung’s TLC eMMC, TrendForce believes that the aforementioned controller IC chip manufacturers will attempt to provide TLC eMMC controller chip solutions in 2014 as a means to seize further opportunities in the eMMC vendor supply chain

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