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Press Releases
Economic Headwinds Intensify, Inventories Await Depletion, Global Notebook Shipments Forecast at Only 176 Million Units in 2023, Says TrendForce

2022/11/02

Consumer Electronics

According to TrendForce, global notebook shipments in 4Q22 are likely to decline to 429 million units, down 72% QoQ and 323% YoY, lower than the same period before the pandemic In addition, market demand is affected by negative factors such as inventory, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and rising inflation, leading to a downward revision of notebook market shipments in 2022 to 189 million units, a 23% decline YoY, with the proportion of shipments in the first and second half of the year at 53:47, the first top-heavy scenario in the past ten years According to research, the structural imbalance between notebook market supply and demand remains unresolved at present, leading this year's notebook shipments to present a downward movement trend quarter by quarter TrendForce believes, after current inventory pressure gradually returns to a healthy level, Chromebooks may be the first wave of products that will see a recovery in demand by 2Q23 and traditional cyclical growth momentum is expected to return to the market, with shipments set to rebound slightly from 1444 million in 2022 to 162 million units As mentioned above, pressure will continue in the consumer and commercial notebook market Although demand for the former has been adjusting for five quarters, peak season momentum is still expected to play a major role Coupled with assistance from the introduction of new CPUs, shipments of consumer notebooks will track closer to traditional peak season demand but declines will be inevitable throughout the year Commercial demand faces dollar rate hikes leading to higher corporate borrowing rates and post-pandemic scenarios including capital expenditure adjustment, downsizing, and layoffs, which will cause an even greater decline than that of consumer notebooks In addition, although pandemic-induced demand has gradually weakening, hindering the growth of the high-end notebook market in 2022, TrendForce has observed that gaming and creator notebooks will remain cash cows Facing the dilemma of the gradual decline in global notebook shipments, the high-margin nature of the segmented market has become more prominent Major notebook manufacturers and processor brands such as Intel and Nvidia are all competing to expand, enhancing consumers’ user experience by means of high specifications and customization, while stimulating potential market demand to become a category of notebook computers capable of continual future growth However, inflationary pressure and geopolitics remain as variables in the general environment and the consumer electronics sector has borne the brunt of this uncertainty The future shipment scale of the notebook computer market must still reference these relevant developments closely In addition, considering that China continues to adopt a tough Zero-COVID policy after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the adversarial relationship between it and the United States, supply chain strategies are also under scrutiny by major manufacturers According to TrendForce research, due to the cumbersome and vast industrial settlement characteristics associated with notebook components, only major American manufacturers are currently promoting production development in Vietnam Even though industrial chain reorganization to decouple from China has been in motion for some time, it still needs to be promoted by brands and ODMs in the short term As the global economy maintains course through battering headwinds, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the 2023 economic growth rate will be approximately 27%, down 05 percentage points from 2022, which will be the most severe economic winter in 20 years Overall, TrendForce estimates that there is no sign of obvious recovery in the global notebook market in 2023 Although the annual decline in shipments has abated to 69%, it will only reach 176 million units For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Delay in Mass Production of New Intel Products a Boon for AMD, Proportion of AMD x86 Server CPUs Forecast to Exceed 22% in 2023, Says TrendForce 

2022/11/01

Semiconductors

According to the latest TrendForce research, the mass production schedule of new Sapphire Rapids products has been delayed due to the poor yield rate of the Intel 7 process At present, the production yield rate of Sapphire Rapids is estimated at only 50~60%, which affects mainstream Sapphire Rapids MCC products The company’s mass production planning has been deferred from 4Q22 to 1H23 This delay in the mass production schedule not only affects the ODM material preparation cycle, but also greatly reduces the proportion of OEMs and CSPs introducing Sapphire Rapids this year AMD will be the biggest beneficiary We estimate the market share of AMD x86 server CPU to be approximately 15% in 2022 and rise to 22% in 2023 AMD has been seeing greatly improved capacity of ABF since 2H21 At the same time, more and more end customers have escalated requirements for energy consumption reduction Considering the total cost of the server (TCO), they have begun to favor single-socket servers TrendForce believes that the change in customer demand will enable AMD to break through the bottleneck created by a 2-socket solution, boosting the company’s overall shipments In addition to weak demand in the general environment, Intel is also facing continual shortages of low-end FPGA, which affects its dual-socket CPU orders, as well as facing pressure such as weakening demand in terms of government tenders and inventory control policies at OEMs In addition, the high-end computing chip market has borne the brunt of the recent ban imposed by the US Department of Commerce and shipments of customized chips from Intel and AMD are indeed under pressure If the conflict between China and the United States intensifies in the future, Intel's dominance in the server CPU market may be a double-edged sword, implying a more serious impact than AMD ESG is included in corporate procurement indicators, driving demand for single-socket servers Intel's new product mass production schedule has been delayed It can be seen from ODM orders that major CSPs have increased their reliance on AMD Since the overall server cost of AMD Milan is lower than that of Intel Ice Lake, AMD Milan features better RDIMM scalability and number of SSD channels Unlike Intel's standard dual-socket design, AMD can achieve the performance required by customers as well as effectively helping customers save more capital expenditure In the short term, the market share of Intel x86 server CPU shipments has dropped by nearly 6% in the past two quarters compared with the same period last year, primarily due to a significant migration of orders from US-based CSPs Among these orders, AMD Milan-X shipments stimulated stocking momentum from US-based CSPs such as Microsoft and Meta Furthermore, supply of Lattice CPLDs required by 2-socket servers with Intel CPUs remains tight and customers are also switching to AMD due to concerns regarding supply In the long run, as corporations and governments successively included ESG indicators into their procurement considerations, energy conservation performance will become key in procurement decisions Therefore, TrendForce believes that AMD will see rapid growth in 2023 The market share of AMD x86 server CPU shipments is estimated to reach 25% in 4Q23, with an annual increase of 7% in 2023

Press Releases
iPhone 14 Pro Sales Favorable Yet Cannot Vanquish Rising Inflation, Apple Cuts 1Q23 Production to 52 Million Units, Says TrendForce

2022/10/25

Consumer Electronics

Looking at Apple's 2022 sales, the company began adjusting the proportion of new products after the initial wave of pre-orders The market response after the release of the iPhone 14 Plus was lukewarm, escalating Apple's product adjustment process The iPhone 14 Pro series boasts improved specifications yet unit prices are the same as last year's models, making pre-orders for the Pro series highly popular In the past, the Pro series was the first choice for the earliest wave of users In addition, the delayed launch of the 14 Plus this year has led to more concentrated buying than in previous years TrendForce indicates that the production ratio of the two models of the iPhone 14 Pro series has been increased from the initially planned 50% to 60% and it cannot be ruled out that this ratio will continue rising to 65% in the future At present, the overall proportion of new iPhone models in Apple's shipments will remain at 36% and the company’s 2022 iPhone shipment target is 240 million units, an annual increase of 28% TrendForce points out, while the US continues to raise interest rates to curb inflation, undercutting disposable consumer income, Apple's production performance will feel these effects in 1Q23 Production is expected to be lowered to 52 million units from an earlier estimate of 56 million units, a 14% decline YoY As geopolitical pressure rises, large smartphone brands accelerate migration of production lines out of China Recently, the US Department of Commerce increased sanctions on Chinese chips and export of semiconductor equipment Although there are no restrictions on smartphone production centers, as friction between China and the United States intensifies, smartphone brands that focus on the North American market are bound to strike a balance between sales and product origin According to TrendForce investigations, since Apple has a leading 50% share of the US market and has also built India into a production center in recent years, it is estimated that Apple’s proportion of Indian production is expected to exceed 5% in 2023 and increase year by year Specifications of new high-end iPhone models to see greater differentiation in 2023 Looking forward to the iPhone 15 series, TrendForce indicates that Apple will maintain a four new model release schedule featuring two processors to further differentiate between standard and high-end models In terms of specifications, in addition to the comprehensive switch from lightning to Type C connectors which is already known, chances are high that the Pro series will feature a memory capacity upgrade to 8GB to match its new processor and continue camera specifications improvements including upgrading its main camera to 8P and the use a periscope lens in the Pro Max model As for Apple's in-house 5G modem, the company will continue using a Qualcomm model because its mmWave signal test results cannot meet Apple’s requirements The company’s self-developed 5G modem is expected to be officially introduced in 2024 For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Battery Recycling to Aid in Reducing Carbon Emissions, Global EV and Energy Storage Battery Recycling Market Forecast to Exceed 1TWh in 2030, Says TrendForce

2022/10/24

Energy

TrendForce indicates that the rapid rise in the penetration rate of the global new energy vehicle (NEV) market has stimulated an increase in the installed capacity of power batteries on a yearly basis At the same time, the technological path of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the field of electrochemical energy storage has become the mainstream solution for new installed capacity in recent years and its market share is rising rapidly As EV and energy storage batteries are retired on a large-scale in the future, TrendForce estimates that the global market for EV and energy storage battery recycling will exceed 1TWh by 2030, of which the scope of lithium iron phosphate battery recycling will account for more than a 58% share A plethora of competitors, but actual scale of retired power battery recycling is limited However, several major problems remain to be solved in the battery recycling industry at this stage First, it is still early in the development of the lithium-ion battery recycling industry and approximately 70% of used batteries come from defective products and waste from battery factories The actual scale of recycling remains small Second, the number of participants in the battery recycling industry continues to rise and overall industry standardization still needs to be improved Taking the Chinese market as an example, China has continued to introduce power battery recycling policies since 2020 More than 10,000 new battery recycling-related companies were registered in just the year 2021, an approximate 4-fold increase compared to 2020 However, there were only 45 companies (hereinafter referred to as white-listed companies) meeting the “Industry Standard Conditions for Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries for New Energy Vehicles” issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the PRC as of the end of 2021 It is worth noting, according to TrendForce research, the current annual production capacity of comprehensive waste battery treatment originating from white-listed companies has exceeded 101 million tons and the planned processing capacity of these companies exceeds 425 million tons However, the actual recycled volume of lithium-ion batteries in China in 2021 was less than 300,000 tons, demonstrating the obvious idling capacity of the battery recycling industry Cascade utilization and recycling go hand in hand to create a recycling economy for the battery industry From the perspective of China, one of the world's largest NEV markets, installed capacity in the global power battery market will exceed 3TWh by 2030 and China’s power battery installed capacity is expected to account for approximately 45% of the world's total Therefore, the effective use of a battery’s full life cycle will be an important way to create an eventual low-carbon economy and battery recycling not only makes up for a shortage of resources, but also reduces stress on the environment and resources compared with the exploitation, production, and use of primary mine materials According to TrendForce research, the current recycling of waste lithium-ion batteries in China is mainly divided into cascade utilization and recycling and reconstruction Cascade utilization is employed in fields such as backup power, small-scale energy storage, and micro vehicles (such as low-speed electric vehicles) when power battery storage capacity is attenuated to less than 80% but most cascade utilization in the energy storage field remains at an experimental demonstration stage and is excluded from large-scale energy storage projects by the National Energy Administration of the PRC Recycling and reconstruction mainly involves dismantling retired power batteries to recover valuable metals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel, and reuse them in the regenerative manufacturing of battery materials For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Green Energy Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Consumer Budgets Shrink, Global OLED TV Shipments Forecast to Decline to 6.67 Million Units for the First Time in 2022, Says TrendForce

2022/10/19

Consumer Electronics

According to TrendForce investigations, global TV shipments in 3Q22 reached 5139 million units, growing 124% QoQ and falling 21% YoY As the shadow of rising inflation envelops the world, consumer product budgets have become seriously constrained, indirectly inhibiting the willingness to purchase TV products Entering the fourth quarter, TV brands have launched large-scale promotions in order to surge this year's shipments TV shipments in 4Q22 are expected to increase by 108% QoQ to 5696 million units, but still down 35% compared with the same period last year and a new low for the period Under the influence of factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, rising inflation, and interest rate hikes, global TV shipments in 2022 are estimated at only 202 million units, falling 38% YoY, and the lowest level in the past decade TrendForce further indicates, due to easing supply and potential oversupply in 2023, there is little possibility of a sharp rise in TV panel prices but this situation will help TV brands reduce cost pressures and increase the flexibility of large-scale promotions However, the latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on global economic growth in October pointed out that the global economic growth rate will slow to 27% next year, and the forecast does not rule out the possibility of further decline The three largest economies include the United States, Euro zone, and China will remain stagnant, which may lead to difficulty in growing TV shipments Therefore, global TV shipments are estimated to decrease by 07% YoY in 2023, reaching 201 million units European gas prices skyrocket, consumer budgets cast aside OLED TVs This year, TV sales in Europe posted the worst performance among major economies Due primarily to a combination of three factors including the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the shutdown of nuclear power plants in France, and the inability to generate hydropower due to drought, the price of natural gas in Europe has soared nearly four times compared with the same period last year Severely hampered by household consumption budgets, the annual decline in European TV shipments this year may reach 125% Since Europe is a major sales zone for OLED TVs, even though sales of OLED TVs in North America have grown by more than 20% bolstered by promotions this year, TV demand in Europe has been sluggish, and growth in OLED TV shipments halted for the first time since TrendForce began tracking statistics in 2016 This year's OLED TV shipments are estimated to only reach 667 million units, a decrease of 06% YoY OLED TV demand meets strong headwinds, OLED TV shipments from industry leader LG Electronics likely to decline 27% this year This year, LG Electronics and SONY accounted for more than 80% of the OLED TV market, with a 61% share and a 21% share, respectively However, LG Electronics lost sales in Europe and shipments in North America failed to meet expectations This year, LG Electronics' OLED TV shipments fell by 27% YoY for the first time to only 404 million units In the past, OLED TVs from Philips and Panasonic accounted for more than 60% of annual shipments in Europe but, this year, the European market has been hit by severe inflation, consumer budgets have tightened, and LG Electronics has continued its 2Q22 price slashing strategy, threatening the survival of other OLED brands and hindering 2H22 OLED TV shipments from Philips and Panasonic Philips and Panasonic OLED TV shipments in 2022 are estimated to decline by 91% and 233%, respectively Another increase in OLED TV brightness in 2023 expected to stimulate shipments In addition to OLED TV sales not meeting expectations in Europe this year, as LCD TV panel quotations drop precipitously, the price differential between 55-inch UHD OLED and LCD TV panels has widened from a multiple of 18 to 5 within a year, helping to reduce the promotion pricing of LCD TVs by 20-25% However, this has also caused OLED TV sales to decline In addition, the brightness performance of OLED TVs is slightly inferior to that of LCD TVs, which are also high-end products with mini LEDs as backlights Therefore, LG Display will further improve the brightness of OLED TVs by replacing materials and algorithms next year with annual shipment growth estimated to increase by 73% to 716 million units For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

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