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Press Releases
TrendForce: Global LED Lighting Product Shipment in 2014 is Estimated to Increase 68% Y-o-Y, Reaching USD 17.8 Billion

2013/11/18

LED

It is pointed out in the latest silver member report issued by LEDinside that global LED lighting penetration rate is rapidly growing According to the data from LEDinside, a research division of TrendForce, LED lighting market value in 2014 will come to 178 billion USD, and the total shipment of LED lighting products will reach 132 billion units, with a 68% YoY growth LEDinside points out that the global LED lighting product replacement tide is caused by the rapidly falling LED product prices With replacement lamp being the most obvious, bulbs and tubes are the most popular ones in the market, which account for 38% and 24% of LED lighting product demand in 2013 respectively In addition, the demand for LED luminaires in future will gradually rise, especially that the products combined with intelligent system will gradually draw greater attention from the market, therefore, the proportion of LED luminaires is expected to increase year by year Source: LEDinside Observing from regional LED lighting market demand, in North America, the government's efforts to support the LED lighting is gradually increasing, Energy Star and other subsidies have grown rapidly, prompting further reduce in the price of LED lighting products CREE and other manufacturers are optimistic about the LED lighting market development in 2014, and it is expected that the sales growth of replacement lamps will be the next business growth focus According to the data from LEDinside, the growth rate of LED lighting market demand volume in North America is expected to reach 72% in 2014 In addition, in Latin American countries like Brazil, LED lighting market is growing rapidly, especially the LED commercial lighting market, and the growth rate of LED lighting market demand volume is expected to reach 64% in 2014 As a mature market, although Europe doesn't have massive subsidies, its high electricity price and the lighting culture differences market the demand of commercial lighting and architectural lighting market to continue As the ban of incandescent lamp gradually being implemented in the next few years, it is estimated that the market will continue to show steady growth trend The growth rate of LED lighting market demand volume in Europe is expected to reach 69% in 2014 In terms of the Chinese market, not only the emerging LED lighting manufacturers actively extend LED lighting market, traditional lighting manufacturers with own brand and channel advantages also actively expand LED lighting business through both online and stores Moreover, the Chinese government is trying to play an active role to promote the LED industry development through subsidy policies, and resolve overcapacity and business bankruptcy caused by excessive subsidies for the upstream LED industry simultaneously It is estimated by LEDinside that the growth rate of LED lighting market demand volume in China is expected to reach 86% in 2014

Press Releases
TrendForce: iPhone 5C’s Performance Expected to Drop, May Account for Only 24% of iPhone Shipments in 4Q13

2013/11/13

Display , Consumer Electronics , Semiconductors

According to TrendForce’s research, Apple's Q3 iPhone shipments reached a total of 338 million units Together, the new iPhone 5S and iPhone 5C account for more than 50% of all of Apple’s shipped iPhones Given that the iPhone 5C's price ended up being a lot higher than expected, its Q4 shipments have been adjusted downwards by 11 million units, and is projected to account for only 24% of the total iPhones shipped during the quarter The iPhone 5S's sales performance, by comparison, turned out to be a lot better than expected; By the end of 4Q13, the said model is likely to account for nearly 70% of all the iPhones shipped The total number of iPhones shipped in 4Q13 is projected to increase by 22% YoY to 46 million units Shipments of Samsung's newest high-end model, the Galaxy Note 3, rose to 15 million units in 2H13, whereas the shipment proportion of the Korean company's mid-ranged devices reached 60% Sony has been making various product related adjustments ever since it formally entered the smartphone market in 2012 In addition to keeping its own designs for all of its products, the company has targeted its mid-ranged devices to foreign markets, and differentiates its high-end products based on specific hardware specs, camera functionality, and water proof designs As a whole, the shipments of Sony's entire smartphone lines have managed to improve significantly from 1Q13 In Q3 alone, the Japanese company's smartphone shipment grew to over 12 million units, a 106% QoQ and 79% YoY increase Its market share rose to 5% during the same period LG has been known to utilize and take advantage of the experiences it has accumulated during the days of making feature phones and selling various electronics products In 3Q13, the company's smartphone shipments exceeded 10 million units, showing a growth of 227% QoQ and 93% YoY The 4Q13 shipment of the struggling Taiwanese smartphone company, HTC, is predicted to fall by approximately 162% QoQ and 40% YoY to 52 million units The main reasons for HTC’s shipment decline include its waning market shares in the US and European markets and the fact that it failed to introduce any new products in 4Q13 other than the One Max Competition Intensifies among Smartphone Manufacturers, Economies of Scale Key to Survive Looking ahead to 1H14, TrendForce believes that smartphone manufacturers worldwide will face a lot of potential challenges First, for the smartphones makers whose shipments do not exceed 3% of the global total --in other words, those whose shipments do not reach 35 million units-- obtaining upstream components and materials at good prices can be difficult The inability of these manufacturers to adjust or lower their products’ high retail price can be a detriment given the prevalent price-drop trend within the market Taking the said factor into account, it is especially critical that smartphone manufacturers are able to take advantage of the economies of scale and maintain proper cost advantage within the industry Second, with chip manufacturers such as Qualcomm and Mediatek managing to facilitate the surge in mid to low-end smartphones, the hardware SPEC differences among competing smartphones have become increasingly less noticeable Due to the existence of such a trend, companies hoping to expand in the market need to think hard about how to increase the uniqueness of their products and offer something different Finally, given that smartphones with mid to low-end prices are generating smaller and smaller margins, the efficiency at which various branded manufacturers are able to assemble their own products have become less impressive than that of large scaled ODMs Whether it is in the area of assembly deployment or manufacturing, professional ODMs are generally more capable of achieving economies of scale Because of this, the small to mid-sized manufacturers that are typically weak in the areas of capital, cost, technology, and market performance are likely to exit the market rapidly TrendForce predicts that many of China's “white box” smartphone manufacturers will be among the first to face such an outcome The gaps left by these manufacturers will be filled by leading brands from China and various other foreign countries

Press Releases
TrendForce: iPad Air/iPad mini2 Panel Yield Lifting, October Tablet Panel Shipment Peaked

2013/11/13

Display

According to WitsView, the display research division of the global intelligence provider TrendForce, the large-sized panel shipment for October 2013 reached 7061 million units, rising 21% MoM With the year-end shopping season coming in the US and Europe, on top of international brands’ restocking demand and Chinese brands’ inventory replenishment for some sizes, panel makers cut price to boost sales to clients and agents as the utilization remains high and the end market demand is limited, resulting in a small decline in the October LCD TV panel shipment, which is 1956 million units, declining 01% MoM As the IT panel demand was as weak as expected and main brands’ held financial settlement and inventory adjustments, the monitor panel shipment trimmed 4% MoM to 1298 million units The 10”-and-above NB panel shipment attained 1369 million units, declining 92% MoM As for tablet panel shipment, thanks to the rising production yield of LGD, the main panel suppliers of the iPad series, the short supply of iPad Air and iPad mini 2 panels eased slightly, besides, Lenovo and Samsung actively prepared shipments to gain the Q4 tablet market shares, lifting the tablet panel demand The tablet panel shipment for October reached 2438 million units, rising 16% MoM Chart 1: TFT-LCD Panel Shipment in Oct-13 (K units) Source: WitsView The tablet panels demand in Q4’13 remains high, and main brands actively promote new models to share the year-end holiday period sales Apple reveals new iPad Air and iPad mini 2 to fight against other brands According to WitsView research manager Jeffy Chen, the panels of the 97” iPad Air are mainly supplied by LG Display(LGD) and Samsung Display, and those of the 79” iPad mini 2 are offered by LGD and Sharp As LGD is the leading producer of the two new models, it stays ahead of the other two makers in terms of R&D and MP and controls keys to production process that affect yield, such as the narrow bezel and the high resolution, while Samsung and Sharp run into different technology bottlenecks that hamper the yield The smooth panel shipment of new models is direct related to Apple’s sales in Q4, with LGD’s breakthrough on production yield, WitsView expects the panel supply for the two models to reach 20 million units, and the ratio between iPad Air and iPad mini 2 is 75% : 35% The main supplier LGD with rising production yield would help gain a market share over 65% According to WitsView, the overall large-sized panel shipment growth in November is likely to reach 4-5% Supported by Chinese brands’ restocking for Chinese New Year, the shipment volume would be similar as that in October After an adjustment in October, the IT market sees warming up shipment momentum, and the monitor panel and the NB panel will respectively show 6% and 8% growth, with much lower shipment volumes than the same period last year The tablet panel shipment will continue to surge 3-4%

Press Releases
TrendForce: 3Q13 Global DRAM Revenue Rises by 9%, Samsung Shows Most Noticeable Growth

2013/11/12

Semiconductors

According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, the Q3 worldwide DRAM revenues showed a 9% QoQ increase despite the price growth in 3Q13 being slower than that of 1H13 The Q3 revenue growth is mostly attributable to the improvements in the structure of the DRAM industry, and is likely to enable various DRAM vendors to sustain their profitability On average, all three of the biggest DRAM manufacturers were able to enjoy an estimated 2% QoQ increase in their operating margins, with the output of PC DRAM being a key differentiating factor TrendForce’s assistant vice president, Avril Wu, indicates that SK Hynix was able to enjoy an operating income growth of approximately 34% --beating Samsung for the second straight quarter-- thanks to the relatively larger output proportion of PC DRAM While the 2H13 DRAM prices were originally expected to drop amid weak market demand, the fire accident experienced by SK Hynix’s Wuxi plant in September helped turned things around by allowing the ASP uptrend to continue In 2013, the total worldwide DRAM revenue is likely to experience an estimated growth of 40% compared to the previous year, with the three major DRAM manufacturers in the industry likely to enjoy the most significant profit momentum Looking at the branded DRAM manufacturer ranking for Q3, Samsung and SK Hynix each account for approximately 37% and 29% of the market, respectively A part of the reason for the increased difference between the two manufacturers’ revenue shares is that Samsung has raised the proportion of its PC DRAM as a means to reclaim territory in the market and to improve its profitability In the long run, the Korean company’s capacity adjustments are likely to become increasingly more flexible as it seeks out other potential vendors to supply mobile DRAM components for its smartphones and increases the DRAM capacity in its Line 16 plant The added DRAM production is expected to be approximately 30K per month by the end of this year, and is likely to be enough to make up for the yield losses resulting from the company’s 25nm process migrations In the future, even if mobile DRAM components continue to account for the largest proportion of its product mix, Samsung’s PC DRAM output is still likely to expand from 20% to around 25% A noticeable impact on the future pricing movements can be expected should such an expansion occur With regard to SK Hynix, given that the Q3 PC DRAM price increase is lower than that of previous quarter, its revenue growth in 3Q13 ended up being only 37% (compared to the 407% growth from 2Q13) Regardless, the Korean company still managed to maintain respectable profit momentum, and saw a 34% increase in its operating margins, the highest among the DRAM manufacturers Looking ahead to 4Q13, with SK Hynix’s PC DRAM output shrinking from 35% to 25% following the Wuxi plant fire accident, it is predicted that Samsung will eventually be able to reclaim its profit lead The recovery period of the Wuxi plant, which remains unclear at the moment, will likely play a crucial role in determining 2014’s pricing momentum When added together, Micron’s and Elpida’s revenue represents approximately 262% of the market, and is only 2% less than that of SK Hynix The new Micron group’s monthly output level has become the second largest in the industry following the markets transformation into an oligopoly in 3Q13 With the new company group’s 30nm manufacturing process still relatively behind those of its major competitors and Elpida’s average selling price being somewhere below the industry standard, the entire company’s ability to profit in the short term is slightly impacted However, given that it is planning to gradually migrate to the 25/20nm manufacturing process and is looking to get each of its plants to maximize efficiency by focusing on specific products, Micron's ability to generate respectable profit in the future should not be underestimated When looked at from the perspective of the PC DRAM market, the new Micron group’s total output already represents one third of the entire industry Such a status undoubtedly provides a major boost to the company's influence in the market Looking at the Taiwanese manufacturers, considering the fact that Nanya has stopped obtaining wafers from Inotera since 3Q13, that its output has undergone a notable reduction following the migration to the 30nm process, and that its PC DRAM production proportion has been lowered, the company was not able to experience much benefit from the market effects of SK Hynix's Wuxi Plant fire accident Nanya’s revenue, by the end of 3Q13, declined by an estimated 83% Powerchip’s revenues, by contrast, jumped by nearly 75% as the company chose to re-establish its P3 plant’s foundry services in May The Taiwanese company, additionally, also benefitted from the rise in the price of its foundry services and the increase in orders for the more profitable products Affected by the gradually lowered featurephone shipments of its clients, Winbond’s business for small density mobile DRAM took a hit, and its revenues slid by approximately 52% QoQ Following the impact of SK Hynix’s Wuxi plant fire accident on specialty DRAM, there is a possible chance that the Taiwanese company’s revenue will rebound during 4Q13 Observing the entire market, TrendForce believes that the Wuxi plant fire accident will continue to have a major impact on the Q4 momentum and development prospects of the three major DRAM manufacturers in the industry Samsung is already taking steps to ramp up the proportion of its PC DRAM wafers, for example, while SK Hynix is looking to get its Wuxi plant to fully recover Micron, in the meantime, has been increasing its efforts to develop its 20nm manufacturing process Even with the DRAM market becoming an oligopoly and price stability and profits becoming the major focuses within the industry, there’s little question that the competition among the above three manufacturers will continue in the periods ahead  

Press Releases
TrendForce: Dropping Supply Eases Q1’14 NB Panel Price Drops?

2013/11/05

Display

According to the latest LCD panel price survey by WitsView, the display research division of the global market intelligence provider TrendForce, the NB panel prices in Q1 next year may ease drops and stabilize as panel makers plan to largely cut supply Some Wedge panel prices may reach bottom in Q4 this year, while the LCD TV panels continue to drop and may reach bottom in March and April next year, depending on panel makers’ utilization adjustments As for monitor panels, some sizes show small price drops in this traditional slow season even with panel makers’ trimming supply, which relies on utilization adjustments for easing price drops  NB Panel Price Trend As NB panels hold lower profits and the end demand shows no signs of recovery, the 2103 NB panel shipment drops significantly with a forecast of 178 million units, declining 21-22% YoY Panel makers remain conservative on the 2014 NB panel business plan, and the annual drop will reach as much as 25% based on top five (SDC/LGD/INX/AUO/BOE) panel makers’ initial business plan As panel makers continue to carry out differentiations on products specs, including the high resolution and the wide-viewing angle, the structural short supply will emerge in H1’14, which helps ease panel prices if the capacity reduction is taken into account    Besides, the slimness and power-saving remain the long-term goal for products, and as panel makers plan to cut Wedge type panel supply in 2014, and consumers prefer low-priced models, brands will increase inventories in hands on the psychological fears of short supply, leading to a slightly tight panel supply and demand of the sizes such as the 156” Monitor Panel Price Trend As the sales of smart phones and tablets stir largely consumers’ demands for mobile devices, the LCD monitor shipment continue to trim On profit concern, panel makers strategically cut the monitor panel supply since last year and keep this year’s market balanced According to WitsView’s survey, the 2014 LCD monitor panel supply will continue to decline to 145 million units, dropping 10% YoY The overall monitor panel prices will still depend on the demand and supply in the TV market and panel makers’ utilization adjustments LCD TV Panel Price Trend As the LCD TV has the open cell as the main shipping type, the panel makers maintain profitability based on the current cost structure even with the deeper-than-expected price drops To secure the cost advantages, the utilization must remain high, lifting the panel glut supply pressure, especially the 55”- and-above products seeing intensifying competition with the newly added G85 capacity The 65” panels will see price war declaring early in the current quarter Panel makers’ ability to gain profit will clearly be challenged from Q3   The key lies in if panel makers can appropriately control the operation of new and old capacities, which would help trim the Q1 panel prices With the new models being launched in March and the restocking demands for China’s May 1st holidays and World Cup Games, the prices of the range 32”-42” may stabilize in March and April As SDC and BOE’s G85 fabs in Suzhou and Hefei will be operational, the prices after May are hard to foresee Contrarily, if panel makers hold the utilization as elevated as now, the price may continue to decline to Q2 with the new capacities As brands and retail channels cannot bear the price losses, the demand may freeze in H1’14, which would be too late to reduce production  WitsView research director Burrell Liu says that the 2013 large-sized panel (7” with 1024x600 and up) is expected to see a glut ratio rising to 98%, a more apparent oversupply than that in 2013 With China’s subsidy policy ending, slow global economic recovery, and panel makers’ utilization showing no adjustments according to market changes, the market will see another oversupply along with the new capacities Panel makers, seeing profits narrowing, have indeed to handle carefully the situation and think about the solutions

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