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Press Releases
TrendForce: iPad Shipment Weakens with Q3 Market Share Continuing to Dip

2013/10/29

Consumer Electronics

According to WitsView, the display research division of the global market intelligence provider TrendForce, the global 7”- and-above tablet shipment of the resolution WSVGA and up for Q3 attained 443 million units, surging 84% from the previous quarter Generally speaking, the Q3 tablet shipment has got rid of the sluggish atmosphere in Q2, however, some brands show no strengthening performances and lack the strong restocking ahead of the traditional holiday shopping season WitsView research director Eric Chiou indicates that despite new showcases of iPad Air and iPad mini 2, Apple’s shipment will concentrate in Q4, contrast with Q3 which has no strong new-launch support and suffers from consumers’ wait-and-see attitude on new releases While Apple’s tablet shipment was only 141 million units, trimming 5% QoQ, the iPad lineup’s market share continued to drop to a historical new low, 318% Based on WitsView’s analysis, ambitious Samsung takes advantages of Apple’s product reshuffle and boost its tablet shipment to a new record of 105 million units The full and diverse product portfolio is the key for Samsung to lift the tablet shipment and in addition to the entry-level Galaxy Tab and the high-end Galaxy Note equipped with S Pen, Samsung actively promotes the 8” products that are rarely emphasized by other brands, forming a complete lineup with the 7” and the 101” However, Samsung’s aggressive shipment also leads to risks of accumulating inventory As the No1 smart phone brand, Samsung enjoys rich resources with the telecom channel partners, but it cannot avoid the large-scale price-cutting campaign in Q4 to ease inventory pressure as tablet throat-cutting war intensifies   The PC brands who performed ideally in H1’13 see the price-cutting effect fading as the low-price atmosphere gets common Only Lenovo relying on China and bidding projects achieved excellent results, Asus and Acer merely had one-million-unit shipments in Q3, respectively, seeing a more than 30% drop from the previous quarter As new models from Apple and Amazon hit store shelves, PC brands face fiercer challenges in the current quarter Both Google and Amazon have the high-resolution 7” as the promotion core for this year Chiou says as a market pioneer, Google’s new Nexus 7 reached an significant shipment of 21 million units in Q3, more than doubling from that in Q2 However, new Nexus 7 with fine and upgraded resolution has compromised on the affordable price tag New Nexus 7 is expected to show an even weaker Q4 shipment than Q3 following the digestion of model distribution as its selling price tops the benchmark USD 200 for 7” tablets, indicates Chiou Besides, as Google and Amazon’s tablets share common features, the similar situation will happen to Amazon and damp its new model shipment in Q4 Based on WitsView’s analysis, the tablet remains the highly-anticipated consumer electronics product during the holiday shopping season, and the Q4 shipment is projected to attain 543 million units, rising 23% QoQ, with the release of new models such as iPad Air Nevertheless, the purchase in the tablet segment is losing the steam, and the constantly accumulating inventory from early this year will influence the Q4 market The tablet shipment forecast for entire 2013 is 1867 million units, including 1456 million units for branded tablets and 411 million units for white-box brands Source:WitsView

Press Releases
TrendForce: 10/31「PVforum2013」to Provide Insight into Investment Opportunities and Risk of Solar Power Plant, We Welcome all the Medias to Come Join us

2013/10/28

Energy

With countries successively releasing PV subsidy policies, the cumulative amount of grid-connected installations has gradually increased Solar power plants have even become the major investment product in the eyes of international investors According to EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce, the oversupply issue still exists in recent solar market Major manufacturers choose to enter the power plant area in order to expand the market for their own-brands and to earn long-term stable Return-on-Investment (ROI) However, the increased operating time in power plants has caused many issues that would affect profit to pop up This leaves potential risks of decreased ROI in related investments The research manager of EnergyTrend, Arthur Hsu, indicates that the ratio of roof-top solar systems and ground-mounted power plants from 2012 to 2016 is 6:4 Regardless of the type of installation method used, the problem mostly encountered by power plants is that module efficiency declines faster than expected Other problems include product warranty and improper design For example, Satcon, a major US solar inverter manufacturer, declared bankruptcy and caused power plants that use Satcon’s central inverters to stand in a difficult position when product warranty and maintenance have been suspended These bring unknown risks to power plant investors Although power plants can maintain operation and obtain warranty through replacing the components, investment cost may still rise and thus impact the original ROI Given that the investment evaluation for certain projects turned out to be relatively inaccurate, in some cases actual ROI may also be lower than expected For example, in order to achieve higher ROI, certain investors didn’t take warranty cost into consideration during the initial stage of evaluation, which led to problems when the warranty period ended being far shorter than the subsidy period This can bring quite a few confusions to investors Because of this, power plant investors and those that plan to get involved in power plants pay more attention to maintenance and warranty Thus, the market size also gradually increases Based on the trend, EnergyTrend is going to hold its first PVforum 2013 – Market Status and Future Development for Solar Power Plants in Asia on October 31st (Thursday) at Taipei International Convention Center Our research mangers, Arthur Hsu and Jason Huang, will present keynote speeches regarding solar power plants and overall market prospect We invite industry experts from related fields to exchange information regarding power plant maintenance/warranty and investment evaluation with us Also, we welcome all the medias to come join us Judging from spot market’s overall performance, Chinese polysilicon price remained between RMB130/kg-RMB140/kg, with average price slightly increasing The high utilization rate for major manufacturers caused last week’s average price to reach US$1702/kg, a 015% rise For wafers, the demand for multi-si wafers increased and manufacturers’ utilization rate remained high Last week’s multi-si wafer price slightly rose with average price reaching US$0893/piece, a 079% rise As for mono-si wafers, last week’s average price remained steady For cells, since price on the normal-grade products for second/third-tier manufacturers have started to loosen and manufacturers have begun to pay more attention on inventory due to the off-peak season in the market, last week’s price declined with average price reaching US$0391/watt, a 051% drop For modules, while the increased utilization rate led to the increased demand in high-efficiency modules in the fourth quarter, the mainstream products will turn to normal-grade modules with cheaper price in the future Thus, manufacturers have tried hard to see if there can be better deals on the price Last week’s average price came to US$0673/watt, a 03% drop 「PVforum2013」Agenda http://seminarenergytrendcom/PVforum/2013/TW/index/ Source:EnergyTrend PVforum 2013 Co-sponsored by SIC and CAEC

Press Releases
TrendForece: Q3 NB Shipment Attained This Year’s Peak, Rising 10% QoQ

2013/10/24

Consumer Electronics

According to the NB shipment survey by WitsView, the display research division of the global intelligence provider TrendForce, the global NB shipment in Q3 2013 attained 434 million units, rising 101% QoQ, the only quarter that showed two-digit growth in this year In view of the top nine brands’ shipment, it grew 63% QoQ Based on WitsView’s analysis, the Q3 growth was supported by the stocking momentum for new models in September, including the new lineups using Haswell’s entry-level processors corei3 and Pentium and models equipped with Windows81 OS both going on sale in October After a shipment bottom in H1’13, brands pin their hopes on the new models to stir the year-end sales performance Despite a growing shipment in Q3, the quarter had a YoY -51% performance, indicating the hardware and software upgrade had difficulty to stir the demand for the entire year WitsView projects a NB shipment of 1635 million units for 2013, trimming 116% YoY In view of individual brands, HP held the No1 NB shipment volume, reaching 82 M units, rising 158% QoQ In addition to the contribution of the bidding projects in India, the stable commercial model shipment and heating up demand for low-priced consumer models both led to its growth The brand that deserved a thumbs-up for Q3 was Dell The brand, focusing on the commercial segment, got rid of the Q2 turbulence and enjoyed a shipment of 51 million units, surging 208% QoQ Apple, after the model reshuffle in H1’13, had a shipment of 31M units in Q3, rising 48% QoQ And the brands suffered from a dim peak season were Acer, Asus, and Samsung, seeing near 10% drops for the single quarter  Looking ahead to Q4, the October sales of new models will influence the restocking momentum for Christmas holidays For the recent years, the NB sales seems less supported by the holiday shopping season, which remains a significant event for the US and European retail channels holding promotional campaigns WitsView expects a 4-6% QoQ drop for the Q4 NB shipment Lenovo’s Q4 shipment is likely to surpass that of HP and come to the top spot, seeing a 69M-unit shipment, similar to that in the previous quarter In view of the entire-year shipment, HP still secures the No1 place   The brands that are projected to see growth in Q4 are Toshiba, Asus, Apple, and Sony Asus’ growth is estimated to come from the Transformer Book T100 101” unveiled in Q4, touting as the lowest-priced Window touch hybrid NB, for only $349, and expected to compensate the gap left by the withdrawal of Netbook With the showcase of T100, Asus is challenging a target of 4 million units Samsung is expected to show the deepest drop in Q4, a 35%-45% decline from the previous quarter, as Samsung NB is merged to Samsung Mobile and strategically trimming business on concern of the overall mobile device demand, which is reflected to the Q4 shipment figure Figure 1 Q3 NB Shipment and Q4 Shipment Forecast Source:WitsView

Press Releases
TrendForce: LED Lamp Retail Price Fluctuate in Sept.

2013/10/23

LED

Global Average Selling Price (ASP) for 40W equiv LED lamp was up 28 percent to US$ 162 in Sept 2013, according to a latest LED lamp ASP survey by LEDinside, a research subsidiary of TrendForce Few new products were released worldwide last month Global 60W equiv LED lamp was down 25 percent to US$ 214 Price plunge was most evident in US, as top North American lighting brands and wholesalers begin releasing super competitive-priced products The implemented strategy has obviously stimulated purchases 40W equiv LED lamp products cause price fluctuations Global 40W equiv LED bulb ASP was up 28% to US$ 162 Regional performance as listed below: In UK prices increased 58 percent in Sept 2013, due to price fluctuations in existing LED products Certain product prices were adjusted upwards, while sales for a portion of low priced products was terminated In addition, falls in exchange rates also led to higher prices   Germany also saw 40W equiv LED lamp ASP rise 19% last month, due to plunging currency exchange rates and existing products price fluctuations   However, in Japan 40W equiv LED lamp ASP fell 21 percent due to steady decline in product prices, and an uptick in currency exchange rates   In US, product ASP grew 22 percent in September Sales of existing product prices were terminated, while remaining product prices fluctuated    Prices in Korea experienced an incremental increase of 14 percent, due to decreased currency exchange rates Basically existing product prices remained flat   Product ASP in China remained unchanged at US$ 102 for September, and no new products were released that month   In Taiwan 40W Equiv LED lamps experienced a larger ASP increase of 81 percent Some low priced products had put an end to promotion and sales, while other product prices were stabilized In addition, lower currency exchange also led to upward price climb Source:LEDinside US 60W equiv LED prices plunge most in Sept Global 60W equiv LED ASP dipped 25 percent in Sept to US$ 214 Regional performance as below: US product prices plunge 152 percent, with some existing products temporarily exiting the market New products launched on the market include lower priced Walmart’s Great Value brand bulbs Other product prices were either stable or continued to decline   In Japan, prices were down one percent to US$ 213 in September Existing product prices declined stably, and no new products emerged in the region   In Korea, prices were down two percent, while remaining product prices were stabilized   In UK prices increased slightly by 01 percent in September Basically, original product prices grew stably, mainly due to decline in exchange rates that led to increased product prices Prices for new products were much lower   In Germany, prices were down 16 percent in September Existing product prices were stable or declined slightly No new products emerged in the region   China and Taiwan’s 60W equiv LED prices were up 29 percent and 2 percent respectively Some existing products had discontinued sales in both regions, while remaining products experienced price fluctuations In addition, decline in currency exchange rates also led to increase in prices Source:LEDinside Market competition intensifies, large manufacturers and distribution channels launch low price products Market ASP continued price fluctuations in Sept 2013, but as market competition intensifies price cuts are also becoming more evident, according to LEDinside observations Manufacturers have launched low priced products in regional markets, such as Unilumen’s joint venture with luminaire manufacturer Hugewin, a leader in online LED sales The two companies have established Unilumen-Hugewin (literal translation) that will take advantage of Unilumen’s product plus cost advantages, while making use of Hugewin’s distribution channel advantages to launch a competitive priced LED lamp In the US market, Walmart’s launch of its own brand of Great Value LED lamp product prices are even lower than the bottom price in US One of the 60W equiv LED lamp without dimming functions is sold at US$ 888, while the dimmable 60W equiv LED lamp is sold at US$ 988 The lamps are being sold in US shops and on Walmart website

Press Releases
TrendForce: Penetration Rate of SD 3.0 Memory Cards May Reach 20% in 2014

2013/10/23

Semiconductors

According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, the penetration rate of SD 30 memory cards may only be around 10% in 2013 The main reason for this is that the SD 30 format has yet to be widely adopted in system products (for instance, smartphones, tablets, and cameras), and that the majority of the demand comes only from the channel market, which has fewer shipments proportionally compared to system OEM market In the event that the above situations gradually improve, the penetration rate of SD 30 memory cards has a legitimate shot of approaching 20% in 2014 The maximum bandwidth SD 30, also known as UHS-I, offers a transfer speed of 104 MB/s (much quicker than SD 20’s 25 MB/s), and a write speed that easily surpasses 10 MB/s (equivalent to Class 10 level) In order to take full advantage of SD 30’s rapid read and write speeds, memory card vendors will often attempt to stack two or more NAND Flash dies into a single package Because of this, the density of SD 30 memory cards generally begins at 8GB Judging by the kinds of density and performances offered by SD 30 memory cards, it is clear that such a product will be most suitable in the high-end markets, particularly for products such as smartphones, tablets, video recorders, and single lens reflex cameras   According to TrendForce’s senior manager, Alan Chen, smartphones and tablets account for more than 80% of the demand in memory card markets The rapid growth experienced by such devices, however, has not stimulated demand for SD 30, in part because of the inability of their application processors (AP) to support the SD 30 interface (only a few smartphones and tablets are currently known to support such a format) Even if SD 30 supports backward compatibility (SD 20), this alone would not be enough to impress nor entice potential clients SD 30 memory card demand, all in all, remains most heavily concentrated in the high-end camera and camcorder markets   Another important reason for the lack of strong SD 30 demand, in addition to the one mentioned above, is that many smartphones and tablets are already equipped with 4/8GB and above eMMCs, which are generally sufficient to support the read and write speeds required of the said devices This has effectively encouraged the market’s largest memory card buyers –ie the smartphone and tablet OEMs— to direct the majority of their attention towards the relatively cheaper SD 20 memory cards Tablet and smartphone OEMs using 16GB and above eMMCs for high-end products will generally opt to not provide any free memory cards in order to lower their cost     The abovementioned purchasing strategies of the system clients can be said to have caused the demand of SD 30 memory cards to be shifted towards the channel markets With photos, videos, applications, and other operating systems requiring more and more storage capacity, the 4/8 GB eMMC-based smartphones and tablets are becoming less and less able to satisfy consumer requirements, and an increasing number of consumers are beginning to purchase high-speed and high-density SD 20 Class 10 or SD 30 memory cards in order to make the most use of their mobile devices Most of the business opportunities for SD 30 memory cards essentially come from the high-end memory card demands that originated from the channel markets In order to facilitate the sales of the SD 30 memory cards, vendors have marked their memory card products with both the “Class 10” and “UHS-I” labels   Given the factors mentioned above, the SD 30 memory cards’ penetration rate is likely to only be around 10% in 2013 (see figure 1) In 2014, there is a slight chance that that figure will rise to 15-20% following the gradual increase in the number of AP chips supporting the SD 30 format What’s more, with the prices of smartphones and tablets gradually becoming lower, various manufacturers will continue to use low density eMMCs as a means to decrease cost The demand for high-end memory cards in the channel market, as such, will have a chance to continue growing Looking at the market-side, given that the proportion of smartphones are consistently rising in the mobile phone industry, the system OEM markets with the greatest shipment levels are becoming smaller This has led to an increase in the proportion of memory cards accounted for by the channel market, and could in turn help raise the market penetration rate of SD 30 memory cards In order to profit and come up with an ideal product mix, the leading memory card manufacturers are likely to also begin raising the proportion of SD 30 memory cards, and do so at a faster pace This will help boost the SD 30 memory card’s market penetration rate as well        As of this moment, only a few SD 30 vendors are known to adopt the in-house production approach The majority is known to use either Silicon Motion’s or Phison Electronics Corp’s SD 30 controller chips Aside from these two manufacturers, Skymedi, Alcor Micro, and Solid State System also produce relevant controller chips in the market As the SD 30 memory card shipment gradually increases in the future, and as the SD 30 controller chip’s profit rate exceeds that of SD 20, the competition within the SD 30 controller chip market will undoubtedly become a lot more intense The SD 30 controller chip has already begun to experience higher usage in the market for SD 20 Class 10 memory cards given its ability to significantly enhance the NAND Flash component’s read/write performance Pricing competition in the market will also inevitably increase as the SD 30 business opportunities grow and as competitors emerge TrendForce believes that the shrinking price gap between SD 30 and SD 20 controller chips will eventually help to speed the rate at which the latter is replaced All considered, it is not unreasonable to expect further business opportunities to arise for SD 30 controller chips in the future

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