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Press Releases
TrendForce: Dropping Supply Eases Q1’14 NB Panel Price Drops?

2013/11/05

Display

According to the latest LCD panel price survey by WitsView, the display research division of the global market intelligence provider TrendForce, the NB panel prices in Q1 next year may ease drops and stabilize as panel makers plan to largely cut supply Some Wedge panel prices may reach bottom in Q4 this year, while the LCD TV panels continue to drop and may reach bottom in March and April next year, depending on panel makers’ utilization adjustments As for monitor panels, some sizes show small price drops in this traditional slow season even with panel makers’ trimming supply, which relies on utilization adjustments for easing price drops  NB Panel Price Trend As NB panels hold lower profits and the end demand shows no signs of recovery, the 2103 NB panel shipment drops significantly with a forecast of 178 million units, declining 21-22% YoY Panel makers remain conservative on the 2014 NB panel business plan, and the annual drop will reach as much as 25% based on top five (SDC/LGD/INX/AUO/BOE) panel makers’ initial business plan As panel makers continue to carry out differentiations on products specs, including the high resolution and the wide-viewing angle, the structural short supply will emerge in H1’14, which helps ease panel prices if the capacity reduction is taken into account    Besides, the slimness and power-saving remain the long-term goal for products, and as panel makers plan to cut Wedge type panel supply in 2014, and consumers prefer low-priced models, brands will increase inventories in hands on the psychological fears of short supply, leading to a slightly tight panel supply and demand of the sizes such as the 156” Monitor Panel Price Trend As the sales of smart phones and tablets stir largely consumers’ demands for mobile devices, the LCD monitor shipment continue to trim On profit concern, panel makers strategically cut the monitor panel supply since last year and keep this year’s market balanced According to WitsView’s survey, the 2014 LCD monitor panel supply will continue to decline to 145 million units, dropping 10% YoY The overall monitor panel prices will still depend on the demand and supply in the TV market and panel makers’ utilization adjustments LCD TV Panel Price Trend As the LCD TV has the open cell as the main shipping type, the panel makers maintain profitability based on the current cost structure even with the deeper-than-expected price drops To secure the cost advantages, the utilization must remain high, lifting the panel glut supply pressure, especially the 55”- and-above products seeing intensifying competition with the newly added G85 capacity The 65” panels will see price war declaring early in the current quarter Panel makers’ ability to gain profit will clearly be challenged from Q3   The key lies in if panel makers can appropriately control the operation of new and old capacities, which would help trim the Q1 panel prices With the new models being launched in March and the restocking demands for China’s May 1st holidays and World Cup Games, the prices of the range 32”-42” may stabilize in March and April As SDC and BOE’s G85 fabs in Suzhou and Hefei will be operational, the prices after May are hard to foresee Contrarily, if panel makers hold the utilization as elevated as now, the price may continue to decline to Q2 with the new capacities As brands and retail channels cannot bear the price losses, the demand may freeze in H1’14, which would be too late to reduce production  WitsView research director Burrell Liu says that the 2013 large-sized panel (7” with 1024x600 and up) is expected to see a glut ratio rising to 98%, a more apparent oversupply than that in 2013 With China’s subsidy policy ending, slow global economic recovery, and panel makers’ utilization showing no adjustments according to market changes, the market will see another oversupply along with the new capacities Panel makers, seeing profits narrowing, have indeed to handle carefully the situation and think about the solutions

Press Releases
TrendForce: System Product Prices Remain Steady, Branded NAND Flash Manufacturers’ Revenue Rises by 8.8% in 3Q13

2013/11/05

Semiconductors

According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, the NAND Flash manufacturers' Q3 revenues have remained on a steady uptrend despite the absence of any obvious upward pricing movements in the third quarter This is mainly attributable to the limited growth in the NAND Flash vendors' output as well as the steady rise of smartphone and tablet products, a trend which enabled eMMC and Client SSD contract prices to remain relatively unchanged from Q2 The Q3 revenues of the branded NAND Flash manufacturers, all in all, amount to US$ 6281 billion, an 88% increase compared the previous quarter and a growth of 35% from 3Q12 Looking specifically at the branded NAND Flash manufacturers' rankings, Samsung's revenues have reached US$ 2413 billion in Q3, which gives it 384% of the market and allows it to remain in first place; Toshiba is second on the list with a revenue of approximately US$ 1812 billion and 289% of the market; SK Hynix is third with a revenue of $US 883 million and 141% market share; Micron's revenues arrived at approximately US$ 697 million; Intel is at fifth place with a revenue of US$ 475 million and 76% market share Samsung Thanks to the impressive shipment performances of its Mobile NAND, PC-based SSDs and enterprise-based SSDs, Samsung's NAND Flash revenues were able to grow by an estimated 105% QoQ With the numbers of 3-Bit MLC product applications growing and the successful production of 19-nm class products contributing to a proportional increase in their output in Q3, both the server and cloud based enterprise SSDs will likely become the new focus for the Korean company In Q3, Samsung's NAND Flash shipments have increased by 10-13% compared to Q2, whereas its ASP fell from the previous quarter given the rising proportion of its high density and 3-Bit MLC products Following the steady 105% QoQ growth in its Q3 revenues (which reached US$ 241 billion) Samsung's market share rose slightly to 384% Other than focusing on system products such as eMMC, eMCP, and SSD, Samsung is expected to continue accelerating its V-NAND development     Toshiba Toshiba's Q3 NAND Flash revenue rose by 92% QoQ and reached US$ 1812 billion The growth is mostly due to the increase in the demands for system products from major strategic clients and the increasing proportion of system products sold Due to the increased revenues, Toshiba has adjusted this year's memory product sales target from 590 billion yen to 800 billion yen In addition to hastening the development of the 19nm manufacturing process, Toshiba will be looking to increase its enterprise SSD market share in Q4 SK Hynix According to its recent earnings report, SK Hynix's Q3 NAND Flash revenues grew by 51% QoQ and reached US$ 883 million, which gives it approximately 141% of the market and puts it in third place The Korean company's Q3 ASP has slid by 6% from the previous quarter as the proportion of the large density system product sales increased from the second to third quarters Following the Wuxi plant's fire accident, SK Hynix has begun to allocate portions of its NAND Flash capacity to DRAM, a decision which resulted in a lower than expected bit shipment growth (11%) For Q4, the Korean company's bit shipment is expected to shrink by an estimated 10-15% QoQ   Micron Micron's Q3 NAND Flash revenue has grown by 28% QoQ, and reached US$ 697 million The strong SSD shipments has enabled the company's bit shipment to jump by an estimated 13% compared to the previous quarter, while the heightened proportion of its 20nm class products led to a 10% reduction in its bit cost Given that the extent to which Micron's ASP can drop is limited, the company is generally able to earn noticeably higher profit margins from its NAND Flash products Micron is currently optimistic about its NAND Flash products' Q4 prospects, and is likely to show another double digit shipment growth in the upcoming periods   Intel Benefiting from the increased demands for enterprise SSDs, Intel's NAND Flash revenue for Q3 reached US$ 475 million, which represents a 15% increase from Q2 and a 20% increase from the same period a year ago Although its revenue growth is currently the highest on the Q3 revenue rankings list, Micron's Q3 ASP remains relatively unchanged from Q2 The enterprise SSD demand is expected to continue rising in the fourth quarter as cloud computing becomes more and more popular As Intel's 20nm SSD product proportion is expected to exceed 50% in Q4, TrendForce projects that the company's NAND Flash revenue momentum will continue to rise Conclusion The continuous stability of the NAND Flash system product prices and demand from new product launch, the combination credits to that branded NAND Flash revenue reached US$ 628 billion --representing 88% and 35% growth compared to 2Q13 and 3Q12, respectively-- is indication that focusing on system products and stabilizing NAND Flash prices helps contribute to steady revenue growth The gradually rising cloud computing demands and applications, it is worth noting, are also likely to help the industry experience further growth

Press Releases
TrendForce: 2H’Oct NAND Flash Contract Prices Slide due to Weak Demand

2013/11/05

Semiconductors

According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, the 2H’Oct NAND Flash contract prices have dropped by 2-8% (compared to 1H’Oct) due to weak market demand In the periods following the fire accident at SK Hynix's Wuxi plant, SK Hynix and Samsung both allocated portions of their NAND Flash capacity to DRAM as a means to compensate for lost DRAM production TrendForce’s research shows that SK Hynix has chosen to utilize 40k of its NAND Flash capacity for DRAM production, while Samsung used approximately 5% of its monthly NAND Flash capacity for the same purpose Even though the two aforementioned capacity adjustments are expected to contribute to lowered NAND Flash supplies in 4Q13, the lower than expected demands for memory card, UFD, eMMC and SSD products have made NAND Flash suppliers more willing to lower prices as a means to digest their capacity and to stimulate module client demand The less than expected demand for the above memory products appears to have resulted from the intensive pricing competition within the market, the weaker than expected PC and handset sales, and the fact that the peak quarter has yet to show any noticeable momentum Underwhelming market demand, all in all, can be said to be the major reason behind the declining NAND Flash prices Looking at the market, even though the traditional US and European peak sales periods are set to arrive, the restocking momentum has yet to show any signs of emerging Whether it is the channel clients or the system clients, the general attitude towards the upcoming peak sales performances appears to be conservative The NAND Flash contract price downtrend is likely to persist in the event that market demand continues to weaken

Press Releases
TrendForce: LCD Monitor’s Magnificent Q3 Shipment Performance Seems Short-Lived

2013/11/04

Display

According to the survey by WitsView, the display research division of the global market intelligence provider TrendForce, the global top ten LCD monitor brands and SI makers showed stronger-than-expected surges in Q3 shipments, respectively rising 58% and 79% from Q2 but trimming 48% and 56% from the same period last year Brands’ higher-than-expected LCD monitor shipments in Q3 mainly benefitted from: 1the European and American retail channels preparing for the Q4 shopping season in advance; 2 Chinese retail channels’ early purchases for Oct 1st   holidays; 3most brands’ attempt to boost sales for the year-end peak season as their shipments in H1’13 were unideal Besides, LCD monitor SI makers’ excellent shipments were thanks to brand clients’ aggressive shipment lift, and in addition, brands added orders early in September in response to fewer working days on Mid-Autumn and Oct 1st  Holidays WitsView assistant research manager Anita Wang indicates despite of a rise in the Q3 restocking demand, the uprising shipment result may only be temporary and short-lived Besides, as the year-end financial inventory taking approaches and downstream clients’ procurement tends to be conservative, WitsView projects 16% and 56% drops in top ten brands and SI makers’ Q4 shipments, respectively     2013 Top Ten LCD Monitor Brands and SI Makers’ QoQ Shipment Changes Source: WitsView,Nov-13

Press Releases
TrendForce: Q3 Global Smartphone Shipments Meet Seasonal Expectations at 250M Units, 11.6% QoQ Growth

2013/10/30

Display , Consumer Electronics

According to global research firm TrendForce, smartphone shipments have been strong as several smartphone manufacturers introduced new devices in the third quarter As Apple’s new iPhone 5S and 5C hits the market, Android makers like Samsung, Sony, LG, and less well-known Chinese brands are also releasing new smartphone models in the second half of the year TrendForce projects smartphone shipments will reach 250 million units in the third quarter, representing 116% quarter-over-quarter and 36% year-over-year growth Yearly smartphone shipment volume is forecast at 940 million units, a 332% increase over 2012 Apple’s Latest iPhone Arrives, Samsung Steps Up with Large Displays Of the top ten smartphone brands worldwide, only Samsung, Apple, and LG experienced shipment growth in the third quarter Taking a look at Apple, TrendForce analyst Wilson Miao indicates the Cupertino company tried something new in the third quarter due to unrelenting pressure from Android makers in the first half of the year; with the release of two new iPhone models at once, Apple states it sold 9 million smartphones within the first week The smartphone maker calculated total iPhone sales at 33 million units for the third quarter As the iPhone 5C’s price tag is higher than previously expected, iPhone sales are only expected to grow 22% in the fourth quarter, with a projected 46 million shipments Samsung broke records in the third quarter, shipping a total of 78 million smartphones Sporting 3GB of mobile memory and a 57-inch display, Samsung’s Galaxy 3 differentiates itself from its Apple competitor According to Miao, with a solid grasp on marketing channels and a clear price strategy, Samsung’s dominance of the global smartphone market is unshakable for the time being Huawei Remains Number One Chinese Smartphone Marker as Big Gets Bigger Benefitting from strong domestic demand, Chinese smartphone makers experienced the highest shipment growth worldwide, with a 205% increase in the third quarter Supported by MediaTek and Qualcomm’s reference design products, Chinese brands have been taking the domestic market by storm, producing devices with high price-performance ratios Huawei came in first again in the third quarter, shipping 15 million smartphones, 2 million more than runner-up Lenovo Miao notes, Huawei’s performance on the domestic market is not particularly impressive – it is foreign market sales, which make up 30% of the maker’s shipments that place Huawei a cut above its competitors and put the Chinese brand in third place globally The Chinese smartphone market will see the arrival of around 180 new models in the second half of 2013 Although stocking for the October 1 national holiday was not as strong as in previous years, the top four smartphone manufacturers still managed to ship an average of approximately 10 million units in the third quarter However, with tough competition when it comes to smartphone price, device makers’ margins are not as high as they once were Furthermore, as China continues to struggle with cash flow issues, small smartphone makers that are unable to achieve economies of scale are forced to withdraw from the market, with some staying on to provide low-cost manufacturing for large companies TrendForce expects next year will see a wave of China’s white-box smartphone makers exiting the market as they succumb to the pressures of competing against leading domestic and foreign brands

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