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Press Releases
Server Shipments Forecast to Increase 4~5% YoY in 2022 Driven by North American Data Center Demand, Says TrendForce

2021/12/21

Semiconductors

The new normal ushered in by the pandemic will not only become the driving force of digital transformation but will also continue to drive the server market in 2022, according to TrendForce’s investigations It is worth noting that potential unmet demand in 2021 and the risk of future server component shortages will become medium and long-term variables that influence the market Analyzing the shipment volume of completed servers, a growth rate of approximately 4-5% in completed server shipments is expected next year with primary shipment dynamics remaining concentrated in North American data centers with an annual growth rate of approximately 13-14% From the supply chain perspective, the ODM Direct business model has gradually replaced the business model of the traditional server market, giving cloud service providers the ability to respond quickly to market changes However, based on the unpredictability of the market, TrendForce assumes two forecasts for server growth trends One, the supply situation of key components is effectively improved Two, the supply situation of key components is exacerbated    TrendForce states, based on the current situation as materials issues ease quarter by quarter, the annual growth rate of server shipments in 2022 will reach 4~5% There are three primary factors driving market momentum First, the introduction of the Intel Sapphire Rapids and AMD Genoa platforms into the market may once again stimulate the replacement of enterprise client servers and infrastructure construction in data centers Second, the market generally believes that transformational needs generated by the pandemic in 2022, such as shifts in working paradigms and the new normal, will continue to drive the cloud market Furthermore, international tensions have led to geopolitical uncertainty, which in turn has encouraged countries to tighten their control over data sovereignty and prompting the emergence of small-scale data centers in specific geographic locations Actual shipment volume of completed servers in 2022 depends on improvement of supply chain issues Based on the two aforementioned assumptions, if the pandemic is effectively controlled next year, and international logistics, satisfaction of materials demand, and other factors either return to normal or fare better than expected, server companies will be able to increase their shipping capabilities and the annual growth rate of shipments in the overall server market will be able to reach 5-6% while the annual growth rate of ODM-Direct will approach 15%, up from the original forecast 13% However, if the pandemic intensifies next year, the overall global economy will continue under that dark cloud which will greatly affect the willingness of companies to invest In that case, the estimated annual growth rate of server shipments will fall to only 3-4% In addition, the growth momentum of North American data centers will also be affected leading to an annual growth rate of ODM-Direct of only 10%, approximately As a whole and continuing under the influence of the two-year pandemic, the business trend of flexible deployment is irreversible Regardless of overall economic changes, TrendForce expects double-digit growth in the demand for ODM-direct servers next year while overall server demand will also maintain a positive growth trajectory However, continued attention should be focused on issues related to server order fulfillment in the broader market, including the fulfillment rate of key PMIC and LAN chip materials At the same time, another major market variable will be whether Intel and AMD can introduce their two new platforms as scheduled next year and inject additional momentum into equipment replacement For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
3Q21 Revenue of Global Top 10 IC Design (Fabless) Companies Reach US$33.7 billion, Four Taiwanese Companies Make List, Says TrendForce

2021/12/16

Semiconductors

The semicondustor market in 3Q21 is red hot with total revenue of the global top 10 IC design (fabless) companies reaching US$337 billion or 45% growth YoY, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations In addition to the Taiwanese companies MediaTek, Novatek, and Realtek already on the list, Himax comes in at number ten, bringing the total number of Taiwanese companies on the top 10 list to 4      Qualcomm has been buoyed by continuing robust demand for 5G mobile phones form major mobile phone manufacturers with further revenue growth from its processor and radio frequency front end (RFFE) departments Qualcomm’s IoT department benefited from strong demand in the consumer electronics, edge networking, and industrial sectors, posting revenue growth of 66% YoY, highest among Qualcomm departments In turn, this drove Qualcomm’s total 3Q21 revenue to US$77 billion, 56% growth YoY, and ranking first in the world        Second ranked NVidia, is still benefiting from gaming graphics card and data center revenue as the annual revenue growth for these two primary product departments reached 53% and 48%, respectively In addition, professional design visualization solutions only accounted for 8% of total revenue However, due to enduringly strong demand for mining and customers actively deploying the RTX series of high-performance graphics cards, NVidia’s product department revenue grew 148% YoY with overall revenue increasing by 55% to US$66 billion Third ranked Broadcom’s main revenue stream came from their network chip, broadband communication chip and storage and bridge chip businesses Driven by post-COVID hybrid working models, companies are accelerating migration to the cloud, increasing demand for Broadcom chips, and driving revenue growth to US$54 billion or 17% YoY AMD’s Ryzen, Radeon, and EPYC series of products in the fields of games, data centers, and servers performed well, driving total revenue to US$43 billion, 54% growth YoY, and fifth place overall In terms of Taiwanese companies, MediaTek continues to expand its global 5G rollout and, benefiting from optimization of product portfolio composition, product line specification enhancement, increase in sales volume, increases in pricing, and other factors, revenue of MediaTek’s mobile phone product line increased 72% YoY Annual revenue of other product lines also posted double digit growth with total revenue in the 3Q21 reaching US$47 billion or 43% YoY, a fourth place ranking Novatek continues to focus on its two primary product lines of system-on-chip and panel driver chips The proportion of its OLED panel driver chip shipments has increased, product ASP has risen, and shipments have been smooth with 3Q21 revenue reaching US$14 billion or 84% YoY In addition, Realtek's revenue surpassed Xilinx to take the eighth position due to higher priced Netcom chips in 3Q21 Himax also saw significant growth in its three main product lines of TVs, monitors, and notebooks due to large-size driver chips Revenue from large-size driver chips increased 111% YoY, driving total revenue to exceed the US$400 million mark, a 75% increase, and enough to squeeze onto this year’s ranking Overall, 3Q21 revenue for major IC design (fabless) companies has generally reached historic levels Rankings for the top 7 companies remained the same as in 2Q21 with change coming in ranks 8 to 10 Looking forward to 4Q21, TrendForce believes Taiwanese IC design (fabless) companies will generally lean conservative In addition to the electronics industry moving into the traditional off-season, a slowing of demand for consumer applications and customer-end materials supply issues reducing procurement will make continued revenue growth a challenge In addition to consumer electronic products, global industry leaders are focused on the positive development of server and data center products to maintain an expected revenue growth trend         For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
NAND Flash ASP Expected to Undergo 10-15% QoQ Decline in 1Q22 as Market Shifts Towards Oversupply, Says TrendForce

2021/12/15

Semiconductors / Semiconductors

Demand for NAND Flash products will undergo a noticeable and cyclical downward correction in 1Q22 as major smartphone brands wind down their procurement activities for the peak season and ODMs prepare for the New Year holidays, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations As such, the NAND Flash market will remain in an oversupply situation, with prices continuing to undergo downward corrections accordingly However, PC OEMs have been reinstating certain orders for client SSDs since early November in response to improvements in the supply of upstream semiconductor materials By fulfilling these orders, suppliers are able to keep their inventory level relatively low, meaning they are not under as much pressure as previously expected to reduce inventory by lowering prices Taking these factors into account, TrendForce expects NAND Flash ASP to undergo a 10-15% QoQ decline in 1Q22, during which NAND Flash prices will experience the most noticeable declines compared to the other quarters in 2022 Regarding the price trend of NAND Flash products across the whole 2021, TrendForce further indicates that suppliers have actively transitioned their output to higher-layer technologies, resulting in a bit supply growth that noticeably outpaces demand, though the tight supply of components such as controller ICs and PMICs has constrained the production of NAND Flash end-products Hence, the decline in contract prices of NAND Flash products has not been as severe as previously expected Moving ahead to 2022, however, the supply of relevant components is expected to gradually improve, so the market for various NAND Flash products will also likely shift towards a noticeable oversupply As a result, prices of NAND Flash products will steadily decline before the arrival of the peak season in 3Q22 Client SSD prices will maintain a downward trajectory in 1Q22, by about 5-10% QoQ While PC OEMs aggressively push out shipments in 4Q21, demand also remains strong for commercial notebooks, in turn propelling the overall volume of notebook production for 4Q21 to 3Q21 levels, surpassing prior expectations Moving into 1Q22, however, notebook demand from the consumer segment and education segment is expected to moderate, and client SSD buyers’ procurement activities for the quarter will therefore become more conservative Suppliers, on the other hand, continue to shift the bulk of their client SSD output to 128L and higher layer products as they release the next generation of client SSDs to both capture market share and increase the consumption of these higher-layer products The average storage capacity of client SSDs will expand to 567GB next year, with WD releasing QLC products alongside existing QLC manufacturers Intel and Micron, in turn intensifying suppliers’ pricing competition TrendForce therefore expects contract prices of client SSDs to maintain their existing downward trajectory and undergo a 5-10% QoQ decline in 1Q22 Prices will decrease by about 3-8% QoQ for PCIe enterprise SSDs but hold flat for SATA enterprise SSDs North American hyperscalers saw their inventory levels rising throughout the fourth quarter as their production capacities for servers were negatively affected by component gaps In addition, some of these issues are expected to persist in 1Q22, so server shipment for the 4Q21-1Q22 period will experience continued declines, thus putting downward pressure on the growth of enterprise SSD bit demand As for the supply side, not only has the issue of insufficient PMIC production capacity become gradually alleviated, but hyperscalers have also cut down on their enterprise SSD orders somewhat due to their focus on inventory reduction Hence, the production capacities for enterprise SSDs with PCIe interface have slowly returned to normal, and room for price negotiations with suppliers is also beginning to surface Regarding enterprise SSDs with SATA interface, their supply has become relatively tight because manufacturers prioritize the production of high-density PCIe SSDs over SATA SSDs, which feature an older interface and lower density As such, contract prices of SATA SSDs are unlikely to drop For 1Q22, TrendForce forecasts an overall 3-8% QoQ decline in enterprise SSD prices, with contract prices of SATA enterprise SSDs mostly holding flat and prices of PCIe products declining by 3-8% QoQ eMMC prices will decrease by 5-10% QoQ TVs, Chromebooks, and other categories of consumer products that carry eMMC solutions have been experiencing sluggish demand in the second half of this year as related subsidies and tenders in the US wind down The seasonal fluctuations of the demand for consumer products will return to the pre-pandemic pattern next year Chromebook production is forecasted to show a small rebound in 1Q22 and climb to the year’s peak in 2Q22 in accordance with the traditional seasonal pattern Even so, the annual total Chromebook production for 2022 will still register a significant decline from the previous year Turning to TV production, a QoQ decline is projected for 1Q22 Taking account of these demand-related projections, TrendForce expects the demand for eMMC solutions to be fairly weak in 1Q22 The overall production capacity for low-density 2D NAND Flash products has remained relatively constant Some suppliers continue to scale back 2D NAND Flash production capacity, but they have slowed down the pace of reduction Regarding the price trend of eMMC solutions, it is now adjusting downward to a stable level after the surge in 2Q21 TrendForce forecasts that contract prices of eMMC solutions will drop again by 5-10% QoQ for 1Q22 UFS prices will decrease by 8-13% QoQ due to rising supply and falling demand Component gaps in the upstream sections of the supply chain are still a serious issue affecting smartphone brands’ device production Despite the contribution from the traditional peak shipment season in the second half of the year, the YoY growth rate of the total smartphone production in 2021 is expected to once again fall short of earlier projections Looking ahead to 1Q22, Apple is expected to scale back its smartphone-related demand due to seasonality This, in turn, will negatively affect NAND Flash suppliers’ bit shipments and further weaken mobile storage demand as a whole The latest examination of product shipments from NAND Flash suppliers indicates that 1XX-L technologies are now mainstream, and 1YY-L technologies will gradually be adopted during 1H22 Micron has skipped 128L in its stacking technology migration and thereby advanced from 96L directly to 176L To lower production cost and raise bit output, suppliers continue to increase the layer number of their 3D NAND technologies This means that supply growth will further outstrip demand growth in 1Q22 as the off-season sets in Hence, TrendForce forecasts that prices of UFS solutions will also register steeper QoQ declines of 8-13% for 1Q22 NAND Flash wafer prices will decrease by 10-15% QoQ as oversupply becomes more severe Sales of retail storage products such as UFDs and memory cards have been weak through this entire year The promotional activities initiated by e-commerce companies for the special events and festivals near the end of the year have generated only a marginal amount of demand Looking ahead to the early part of 2022, the demand for retail storage products is not expected to gain noticeable momentum before the arrival of Lunar New Year holiday Additionally, the cryptocurrency market has been energetic, so the demand for graphics cards from cryptocurrency miners has been outpacing supply for the most part This development has been impacting shipments of DIY PCs and thereby suppressing the demand for retail client SSDs during 2021 In sum, the aforementioned factors have significantly impeded the consumption of NAND Flash wafers In view of the demand situation in the different application segments, NAND Flash suppliers will likely ramp up wafer shipments to prevent excess inventory Moving into 1Q22, even if there is sustained demand for storage components in the PC and server segments, smartphone-related demand will shrink further and exacerbate the oversupply situation of the NAND Flash wafer market TrendForce forecasts that contract prices of 3D NAND Flash wafers will fall by 10-15% QoQ Among the various NAND Flash products, 3D NAND Flash wafers will suffer the sharpest price drop It is worth noting that the growing gap between supply and demand is already exerting considerable pressure on some suppliers, so there is a possibility that suppliers could begin dumping products earlier than expected at the end of this year Such development could help moderate the magnitude of the price downtrend in 1Q22 For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Automotive LED Market Value Forecast to Reach US$3.51 Billion in 2021, ams-OSRAM Leads in Revenue, Says TrendForce

2021/12/14

LED / LED

TrendForce’s 2020-2021 Global Automotive LED Product Trend and Regional Market Analysis research indicates, the global penetration rate of LED headlights exceeds 60% in 2021 with penetration in new energy vehicles (NEV) exceeding 90%, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations Influenced by growth momentum from increasing automotive market shipments and the rising penetration rate of LED lighting, global automotive LED market value is estimated to be valued at US$351 billion in 2021, a 318% YoY growth rate This demonstrates that LED headlights and automotive display LED products remain the main driving force for growth in the automotive LED market     Although the automotive semiconductor shortage has led to manufacturing bottlenecks among some car manufacturers, since car manufacturers have asked LED producers to continue production, the purchase order status of major automotive LED manufacturers will not be affected before the end of 2021 Among the 2021 revenue rankings of automotive LED manufacturers, the top three companies remain ams-OSRAM, Nichia, and Lumileds These three account for a combined market share of as much as 717%       In terms of automotive lighting, ams-OSRAM has leveraged stable product quality, excellent lighting efficiency, and cost performance to make it the supplier of choice for the world’s high-end cars and new energy vehicles, including high-flying Tesla among its customers This year, ams-OSRAM’s automotive LED revenue grew rapidly and has an opportunity to reach US$1304 billion by year’s end for an annual growth rate of approximately 409% Samsung LED’s PixCell LED has also been successfully integrated into the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y, boosting its automotive LED revenue growth to as much as US$121 million with market share expected to increase to 34%  In terms of automotive display backlighting including dashboard and central console displays, not only are more and more car models equipped with automotive display products, the standard is moving towards larger displays with the current mainstream automotive panel product size at 123-inches Further taking into account features popular in the current market such as HDR, local dimming, and wide color gamut shows that automotive LED market demand will maintain a rapid growth trend in the next five years This will benefit the revenue of Nichia and Stanley with this year’s market share for these two companies expected to reach 231% and 66%, respectively Relying on the high brightness and compact size of their WICOP product, Seoul Semiconductor’s penetration rate of the automotive headlight market has reached 10% and WICOP has been adopted by car manufacturers including Changan Automobile, SAIC-GM-Wuling, and Nio Revenue is forecast to reach US$155 million with a market share of approximately 44% It is worth mentioning, benefiting from European customer orders, Dominant has the highest annual revenue growth out of the top ten companies in the industry at 463%     For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Optoelectronics Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
DRAM ASP Expected to Decline by 8-13% QoQ in 1Q22 Owing to Seasonal Demand Downturn, Says TrendForce

2021/12/13

Semiconductors

Regarding the shipment of various end products in 4Q21, the quarterly shipment of notebook computers is expected to remain about the same as 3Q21 figures, as prior component gaps were partially resolved during the quarter, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations As such, since PC OEMs’ DRAM inventory has lowered by several weeks, TrendForce has also further reduced its forecast of DRAM price drops for 1Q22 Even so, the overall demand for DRAM will still enter a cyclical downturn in 1Q22, during which DRAM ASP will also maintain a downward trajectory with an 8-13% QoQ decline Whether this price drop will subside going forward will depend on how well suppliers manage their inventory pressure and how DRAM purchasers anticipate further price changes Decline in PC DRAM prices will narrow somewhat as PC OEMs reduce inventory Whereas demand for Chromebooks has noticeably slowed down, demand for consumer and commercial notebooks remains strong Furthermore, certain components which were previously in shortage are starting to experience improved lead times Hence, quarterly shipment of notebook computers for 4Q21 will likely surpass earlier projections Looking ahead to 1Q22, not only will the demand side undergo a cyclical downturn, but the sufficiency ratio of PC DRAM will also surpass 30% following 4Q21’s high base period for comparison These factors will result in DRAM prices undergoing a noticeable decline, although PC OEMs will carry a lower inventory of DRAM in 1Q22 compared with 11-13 weeks of inventory in the previous quarter, thereby helping to curb the price drop of PC DRAM products On the other hand, as mobile DRAM prices begin to drop, certain DRAM suppliers have begun reallocating some of their production capacities from mobile DRAM to PC DRAM As a result, PC DRAM bit supply will likely undergo a corresponding increase in the short run In sum, although the above factors are able to provide some upside momentum that narrows the price drop of PC DRAM products, they are not enough to result in an upturn In particular, DDR4 and DDR5 PC DRAM will experience QoQ declines of 5-10% and 3-8%, respectively, for 1Q22, although the latter product will not noticeably impact the overall PC DRAM ASP, as its penetration rate is still relatively low Server DRAM prices will decrease by about 8-13% QoQ due to slowdown in procurement activities At the moment, CSPs and enterprise clients are carrying about 6-9 weeks and 8-10 weeks of server DRAM inventory, respectively Although these levels represent a slight decline compared to the end of 3Q21, this decline will not substantially contribute to an increase in demand Hence, server DRAM buyers will remain relatively conservative with regards to procurement activities before server DRAM prices reach a level that these buyers consider to be rock bottom DRAM suppliers’ inventory of server DRAM, on the other hand, has been gradually rising in 1H21 owing to decreased demand Furthermore, certain suppliers have ramped up their wafer input for server DRAM products, leading to an increased production In addition, while both buyers and sellers have reached a consensus on the falling prices of server DRAM, supply chain-related component gap issues have become gradually resolved, meaning Tier 1 clients will lessen their server DRAM procurement in the upcoming off-season As a result, suppliers will then be able to fulfill orders that were placed by Tier 2 clients but previously deferred because suppliers prioritized orders from Tier 1 clients These Tier 2 client orders will provide some upside demand for server DRAM, which is a component that is in relative surplus compared to other components TrendForce therefore expects server DRAM prices to decrease by 8-13% QoQ in 1Q22, during which server DRAM prices will experience the most severe declines compared to the other quarters in 2022 Mobile DRAM prices will decline by about 8-13% QoQ in light of intensifying oversupply Thanks to mobile DRAM suppliers’ aggressive sell-offs in 4Q21, smartphone brands still carry a high level of mobile DRAM inventory as of the end of 2021 Looking ahead to 1Q22, not only will the market welcome the arrival of the traditional off-season, but other issues with the supply of processor chip bundles and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will also result in a 10% QoQ drop in smartphone production for the quarter Smartphone brands will become even more careful with respect to their procurement activities so as to avoid continually accumulating inventory As smartphone brands revise down their production targets, market demand for mobile DRAM has therefore become weaker now than it was in 1H21, in turn exacerbating the oversupply situation, which is reflected in the persistently rising mobile DRAM inventory of DRAM suppliers On the whole, the aforementioned issues of high inventory levels and oversupply situation will lead smartphone brands to further conservatize their production and procurement plans in 1Q22 Given that suppliers have suggested a sales strategy of negotiating for 4Q21 and 1Q22 prices collectively, and both buying and selling sides are confronted with inventory pressure, TrendForce thus forecasts an 8-13% QoQ decline in mobile DRAM prices for 1Q22 Graphics DRAM prices will hold flat while demand improves and spot prices rises ahead of time The application demand for graphics DRAM has been recovering noticeably in the recent period Even so, it is worth pointing out that the graphics DRAM market is subject to a very high degree of fluctuations, and this situation is exacerbated by the introduction of the application demand from cryptocurrency mining in recent years Because the values of cryptocurrencies can swing dramatically, GPU manufacturers such as NVIDIA and AMD have to constantly adjust their sales strategies and switch between bundling and de-bundling In so doing, they are contributing to the rapid rise and fall of graphics DRAM demand The graphics DRAM products that the three dominant suppliers are now producing belong to the GDDR6 series The latest distribution of graphics DRAM output by chip type shows that suppliers are also gradually shifting their focus from 8Gb to 16Gb Micron, in particular, is the most proactive in this transition On the other hand, the mainstream graphics cards are still using 8Gb chips at this moment, so the demand for 8Gb graphics DRAM chips has actually increased In addition, spot prices of both GDDR5 8Gb and GDDR6 8Gb chips have experienced huge price hikes Due to this uptrend in spot prices, the difference between spot and contract prices is now negligible for graphics DRAM Some spot transactions even reveal prices that are higher than contract prices This latest development reflects the situation where buyers are more proactive in price negotiations Prices of graphics DRAM products on the whole will be fairly constrained from declining further due to the rise in spot prices, the aforementioned demand turnaround, and Micron’s decision to scale back production for 8Gb chips Taking these factors into account, TrendForce expects that the overall price trend will stay mostly flat DDR3 Consumer DRAM prices will drop by about 3-8% QoQ despite reduced supply The demand for consumer (specialty) DRAM is expected to be relatively weak in 1Q22 due to the effect of the traditional off-season for consumer electronics Also, demand will stay fairly depressed for TVs, which represent the leading source of in-home entertainment spending This is because countries around the world will continue in their attempts to lift their pandemic-related restrictions In addition to these factors, component gaps in the supply chain will still be a serious challenge for device manufacturers As DRAM components are in excess supply relative to non-memory components, device manufacturers will be less willing to stock up on the former Suppliers have been slow to scale back production for DDR3 products this year because prices of DDR3 products surged during the first half of the year However, the downward pressure on prices has now become much more significant, so the two leading South Korean suppliers have taken the initiative to revise their product mix strategies Hence, they will again transfer more of their mature wafer processing capacity from DDR3 products to CMOS image sensors or logic ICs Turning to price trend, TrendForce points to the strong correlation between DDR4 consumer DRAM products and PC DRAM products The latter were the first to experience a weakening of demand, and their prices have already made a downward turn in 4Q21 Looking ahead to 1Q22, contract prices of PC DRAM products will keep falling because of their significant difference with spot prices This means that DDR4 consumer DRAM products will also suffer sliding prices for 1Q22 with QoQ declines reaching 5-10% Looking at DDR3 consumer DRAM products, their prices will also drop even as their supply is shrinking Contract prices of DDR3 2Gb chips are projected fall by 3-8% QoQ on average for 1Q22, whereas DDR3 4Gb chips are projected to register larger declines For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

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