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Press Releases
Market Value of Micro LED Transparent AR Smart Glasses Chips Estimated at Approximately US$38.3 Million by 2026, Says TrendForce

2022/08/09

LED

According to TrendForce's latest research report "TrendForce 2022 Self-Emitting Micro LED Display Cost and Trend Analysis," Micro LED light engine performance beats Micro OLED in terms of brightness, contrast ratio, and responsiveness in transparent AR smart glasses microdisplays and is ideal for applications in outdoor environments Since 2021, more than 10 branded manufacturers around the world have launched Micro LED transparent AR smart glasses concepts and related suppliers have improved Micro LED technology and accelerated factory expansion in order to meet subsequent mass production planning In 2026, the revenue of Micro LED transparent AR smart glasses chips is forecast at approximately US$383 million, with annual compound growth rate of Micro LED chips from 2023 to 2026 at approximately 704% However, the current difficulties encountered in the development of Micro LED transparent AR smart glasses mainly arise from optical waveguide technology, light engine technology, battery storage capacity, and image transmission issues Since transparent smart glasses require high-resolution and high-brightness specifications for outdoor use, Micro LED is the first choice for its light engine At present, Micro LED light engine technology is not yet mature and the external quantum efficiency of red chips is too low Problems regarding the miniaturization of microdisplays have appeared one by one In addition, microdisplay sizes are too small, resulting in small field of view (FOV) so narrow as to affect viewing If the optical waveguide design method is employed, optical efficiency falls at less than 1%, and incidental light must provide higher brightness to meet the specifications necessary for outdoor use of microdisplays In addition, transparent smart glasses will need to be worn for a certain period of time Therefore, battery lifespan and size directly affect product design Furthermore, another major obstacle is finding a way to integrate the sensor to transmit and process image data TrendForce will reveal the current technological progress of various manufacturers in developing transparent AR smart glasses at its Micro LED Forum 2022 on September 13 this year Many technical fields are focused on the development of optics and light engines In the field of optics, TrendForce invited Kura Technologies to share their 8K resolution and FOV 150 micro LED transparent AR smart glasses, in a departure from products offered by other manufacturers which can only reach 1080P and FOV 50 In addition, ams-OSRAM will analyze the market segmentation, application standards, and technical challenges of transparent AR smart glasses and discusses the differences between Micro LED micro-projection displays and LBS laser beam scanning display technology In the field of light engines, JBD has been aggressively developing light engines for Micro LED transparent AR smart glasses in recent years JBD announced a large-scale investment and construction plan in 2022 and established long-term strategic cooperation agreements with a number of optical waveguide manufacturers The company also achieved a major technological breakthrough, producing a Micro LED chip capable of emitting 500,000 nits of ultra-high brightness red light, injecting fresh momentum into the transparent AR smart glasses field Porotech, a Micro LED chip manufacturer from the UK focusing on AR applications, developed a new porous GaN semiconductor material technology to complete the development of Micro LED red light chips that can improve external quantum efficiency (EQE) to resolve the full color light source issue inherent in transparent AR smart glasses TrendForce indicates, as Micro LED light engine and optical technology continues to progress and brands plan new products, there will be prospects to accelerate the advent of a commercial viable Micro LED transparent AR smart glasses product When the technology and costs are in place, business opportunities will extend from military, medical, aviation, and industrial fields to commercial and comprehensive consumer applications For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Optoelectronics Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Intel Orders Delayed, TSMC Slows Three-Nanometer Expansion, Says TrendForce

2022/08/04

Semiconductors

According to TrendForce research, Intel plans to outsource the tGPU chipset in Meteor Lake to TSMC for manufacture Mass production of this product was initially planned for 2H22 but was later postponed to 1H23 due to product design and process verification issues Recently, the product’s mass production schedule has been postponed again to the end of 2023 for some reason, nigh completely cancelling 3nm production capacity originally booked in 2023 with only a marginal amount of wafer input remaining for engineering verification TrendForce indicates that this incident has greatly affected TSMC's production expansion plan, resulting in Apple being the one company among the first wave of 3nm process clients from 2H22 to the start 2023 with products including M series chips and A17 Bionic In view of this, TSMC has decided to slow the progress of its production expansion to ensure production capacity is not excessively idle, leading to massive cost amortization pressure In addition to formally notifying equipment suppliers of the company’s intention to adjust 2023 equipment orders, due to the high cost of 3nm expansion, TrendForce expects that this move will also affect some parts of TSMC’s 2023 CapEx planning As a result, the scale of TSMC’s CapEx in 2023 may be lower than in 2022 It is worth mentioning, although Intel has significantly adjusted its 2023 outsourcing plan, causing TSMC to postpone its 2023 expansion plans, looking at other advanced process clients including AMD, MediaTek, and Qualcomm, all of these companies successively plan to mass-produce 3nm products in 2024 At the same time, Apple's new 2024 iPhone is expected to fully adopt 3nm processors The introduction of the aforementioned clients will inject momentum into TSMC's 3nm capacity utilization and revenue performance in 2024 TrendForce believes, although TSMC has decided to curb its CapEx in 2023 due to the delay of Intel products, TSMC's annual revenue will still grow compared with 2022 but at a slower rate The reduction in CapEx can also relieve TSMC’s huge cost amortization pressure and reduce the degree of gross profit dilution in the early stage of 3nm mass production Looking forward to 2024, with new products from clients such as AMD, MediaTek, and Qualcomm in place, 3nm process output is expected to be on track, further promoting strong growth in TSMC's revenue scale However, the development status of Intel's own Intel 4 process and the accompanying outsourcing situation are still important potential growth drivers for TSMC If Intel 4 fails to mass-produce as scheduled, Intel may outsource its computing tiles to TSMC, strongly driving growth in 2024 However, if the Intel process develops smoothly, there remains the possibility of the company choosing to manufacture related products itself and canceling TSMC's orders For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Historically Low 2023 DRAM Demand Bit Growth at Only 8.3%, NAND Flash Expected to Drive Installed Capacity Growth Due to Falling Prices, Says TrendForce

2022/08/03

Semiconductors

According to TrendForce, DRAM market demand bit growth will only amount to 83% in 2023, sub-10% for the first time in history, and far lower than supply-side bit growth of approximately 141% Data indicates the DRAM market to be severely oversupplied at least in 2023 and prices may continue to decline NAND Flash is still in a state of oversupply and, although prices are expected to fall in the first half of next year, NAND Flash has built-in price elasticity compared to DRAM and average prices are expected to stimulate density growth in the enterprise SSD market after declining for several consecutive quarters Demand bits are expected to grow by 289%, while supply bits will grow by approximately 321% From the perspective of various applications, rising inflation continues to impact demand in consumer markets, so the primary goal of memory brands has been to prioritize inventory correction Especially in the past two years, a shortage of upstream components caused by the pandemic led memory brands to overbook purchase orders while sluggish sales on the distribution channel side have resulted in slow depletion of current notebook inventory, resulting in a further weakening of notebook demand in 2023 In terms of PC DRAM, the proportion of DDR4 and LPDDR4X in PC applications will fall further while the penetration rate of LPDDR5 and DDR5 continues to rise However, the price premium of DDR5 will limit the growth of density in PCs DRAM density in PCs is estimate to increase by approximately 7% annually in 2023 If manufactures cut DDR5 pricing more aggressively next year, installed capacity may be driven up to 9%, depending on whether DDR5 price concessions can be effectively reconciled with DDR4 In terms of PC client SSDs, estimated average installed capacity only increased slightly by 11%, the lowest in the past three years The primary reason is that in the past two years, notebook shipments had spiked due to pandemic demand, simultaneously driving SSD installation rate Average capacity has readily driven up average capacity growth due to the previous tightening of SSD master IC supply However, notebook computer whole device costs have maintained an upward trend in the past two years due to the rising price of components, leading to branded PC manufacturers planning relatively conservative SSD capacity demand bits Since server shipment forecasts have demonstrated impressive growth in past years, subsequent growth momentum will slow since computational fundamentals are already high In terms of Server DRAM, due to the advent of fifth generation memory specifications, the new Sapphire Rapids and Genoa platforms have increased the cost of whole devices and average server capacity has begun to encounter restrictions Instead of the prior practice of merely upgrading the capacity of a single module, demand side considerations will focus more on hardware costs and the practice of ESG strategies Average capacity increase of server DRAM is forecast to be limited in 2023, with an annual increase of approximately 7% In terms of Enterprise SSD, the new Sapphire Rapids and Genoa platforms have begun to upgrade to support the PCIe 50 transfer standard in order to meet the needs of HPC and big data computing The capacity of SSDs must also be upgraded simultaneously to ensure PCIe 50 transfer performance This trend will contribute to the growth of the average capacity of enterprise SSDs next year In addition, as the overall NAND Flash oversupply continues into 1H23, a reduction in NAND Flash pricing will increase the shipment ratio of products above 4TB and the average annual growth rate of enterprise SSD capacity in 2023 is estimated to be 26% As inflation rises, world economies are generally holding a pessimistic view of the consumer market TrendForce believes, cyclical replacement demand and new demand in emerging regions will lead to a slight increase in smartphone production In terms of Mobile DRAM, the Android camp currently has sufficient installed capacity to meet the needs of daily systems operation Therefore, barring impetus provided by innovative applications and considering the cost of whole devices and the low proportion of high-end sales, smartphone brands’ willingness to increase installed capacity has fallen accordingly In terms of the iOS camp, a high degree of operating system optimization reduces demand for mobile DRAM capacity Mobile DRAM density is estimated to increase by only 5% annually in 2023 In terms of smartphone NAND Flash, as the penetration rate of 5G smartphones gradually expands and applications require larger installed capacity to meet the needs of high-quality video recording, basic momentum can be seen for increasing NAND Flash density in smartphones At the same time, the iPhone product portfolio is still moving towards higher capacity across the board and high-end Android models have followed suit with 512GB as standard, while storage in mid- and low-end models will increase with subsequent upgrades in hardware specifications Thus, there is still room for growth in overall average capacity Annual growth of smartphone NAND Flash density is forecast to be maintained at 221% in 2023, slightly lower than that in 2022, but still at a high level For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/   The Webinar, ”COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar: Diverse Market Opportunities Generated by Applications of Cyber-Physical Systems” will start from June 15, 2022 The TrendForce research team including Mark Liu, Caron Ju, Bryan Ao, and Alex Chen will present speeches regarding memory, servers, and datacenters, respectively 【Info】 When:Wednesday, June, 15 Where:COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar (Free to access)

Press Releases
Top Three Equipment Manufacturers Estimated to Account for 74.5% of Global Base Station Market in 2022, Says TrendForce 

2022/08/01

Telecommunications

The entire world utilizes the building of 5G networks to meet the needs of individual users and vertical industries and, as the ubiquity of 5Q continues to broaden, its applications cover the medical, education, industry, and agriculture sectors, forming a business model that can be replicated and promoted, and accelerating development of its network scale TrendForce estimates that Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia will account for 745% of the global base station market in 2022 In 2022, China will be the most active in investing in the 5G field with various cities promoting the construction of 5G base stations and integrating 5G into manufacturing At the same time, they will focus on key industries such as 5G + medical care, industrial IoT, and government affairs to drive the implementation of 5G applications However, concerns regarding geopolitical tensions in a number of countries mean that open-source networks are seen as the solution to the problem of supplier dependence Whether in terms of security or cost, open-source software is extremely critical to the development of 5G networks In addition to improving operational efficiency, it can accelerate network resiliency deployment, but compared with a traditional Radio Access Network (RAN), Open RAN has more security issues TrendForce believes, with the evolution of 5G deployment towards the core and Open RAN cloud, equipment manufacturers will strengthen network protection mechanisms and detection of RAN threats to reduce risk World's three major base station equipment manufacturers actively cultivating Central European, Latin American, and African markets Looking at industry players, Huawei is actively expanding in markets such as South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Vietnam, and Brazil Recently, it has partnered with operators such as MTN and Rain in South Africa to build more than 2,500 5G base stations Ericsson has extended its reach to the UK, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Belgium, Luxembourg, and Lithuania, providing 5G private network solutions for BT and Saudi Telecommunication Nokia won a ten-year network expansion agreement with Orange in Poland to upgrade its existing network including support for phasing out Orange 3G network equipment and reallocating frequencies to enhance its 4G and 5G coverage and capacity solutions In addition, Nokia will provide the latest energy saving AirScale products including solutions such as Single RAN, AirScale base stations and 5G massive MIMO antennas The company has also signed a mid-band 5G network expansion agreement with UScellular in the United States Samsung continues to expand its influence in the US telecommunications market, providing 5G equipment to Dish Network, the fourth largest mobile service provider in the United States, including 5G virtualized base stations for national networks and general-purpose servers to load software for realizing base station functions and supporting flexible and efficient network construction and operation Samsung is also deploying resources in the UK, Japan, Canada, and New Zealand markets TrendForce indicates that major equipment manufacturers will begin to standardize network energy efficiency evaluations to accelerate green innovation starting from 2022 to help operators build optimal and energy-saving network applications, launch more energy-efficient hardware such as green design RF Chain, and use simplified transmitter/receiver structure and novel network-based architecture design including radio access network (RAN) cloudification and network function virtualization Taking Huawei as an example, in order to comply with United Nations climate actions, its goal is to reduce carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 and achieve net zero emissions by 2040 to meet the growing demand for data traffic and actively build a green and low-carbon network For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
U.S. Passes CHIPS Act, Increasing Restrictions on China Lead to Rising Geopolitical Risk, Says Trendforce

2022/08/01

Semiconductors

The disruption of the chip supply chain caused by the pandemic in the past two years, as well as geopolitical flashpoints such as Sino-US trade frictions and the Russia-Ukraine war, have led regional economies worldwide to focus more on the autonomy of local production and supply chains According to TrendForce research, in terms of 12-inch equivalent production capacity in various regions around the world, Taiwan will account for approximately 43% of capacity by 2025, followed by China at 27%, the United States at 8%, and South Korea at 12% In terms of advanced process capacity below 7nm (inclusive), Taiwan will account for approximately 69% by 2025, South Korea 18%, the United States 12%, and China 1% Compared with the landscape in 2022, it is obvious that the United States will increase its proportion of advanced process production capacity in the next three years, while China will focus on mature processes However, as the US Congress is about to enter its August recess, the Senate and House of Representatives passed "HR 4346 The CHIPS (creating helpful incentives to produce semiconductors) and Science Act of 2022" (aka CHIPS Act) promptly last week and the bill officially enters the final leg of the legislative process and will take effect after it is signed by President Biden The draft bill not only covers wafer manufacturing R&D and factory construction subsidies, tax incentives, etc, but also proposes additional restrictions It proposes that companies that receive subsidies from the United States be barred from investing in process technologies below 28nm in China during the subsidy period to ensure that the CHIPS Act protects the competitiveness of the US semiconductor industry TrendForce indicates that the only semiconductor companies currently investing in expansion/fabs in the US and China are TSMC and Samsung It is worth continuing to pay attention to how the US CHIPS Act will restrict the Chinese investment of these two companies China earnestly promoting domestic equipment but key equipment for advanced processes is controlled by US allies Since the US "Entity List" expressly prohibits the sale of US technologies used in advanced processes of 1Xnm and below to enumerated companies, most Chinese foundries have turned to actively expanding mature process technologies of 28nm and above At the same time, China is also industriously developing domestic semiconductor equipment in an attempt to achieve a fully US-independent manufacturing line However, TrendForce indicates the US-aligned equipment manufacturers still control certain key semiconductor processing machinery at this stage US-affiliated equipment is especially crucial in advanced manufacturing processes below 7nm and it is quite difficult to achieve a fully US-independent production line in the short term It is worth mentioning that SMIC began developing its N+2 (7nm) process technology for DUV exposure before being placed on the "Entity List" in 2020 R&D was conducted with the machinery purchased at that time and mining-related chips have recently been mass-produced officially However, according to TrendForce research, since chips below 7nm (inclusive) are approaching their physical limitations, if DUV technology is used in lieu of EUV technology, the chips will require more complicated production procedures, affecting yield and cost performance In addition, the structure of mining chip is relatively simple compared with other logic chips TrendForce believes that it may be quite difficult to produce more complex logic chips using this process and the mass production scale of N+2 (7nm) will be extremely limited as long as US-affiliated equipment shipments remain restricted In summation, the disruption of the chip supply chain caused by the pandemic has stimulated regional economies to focus more on the issue of semiconductor autonomy In the context of the Entity List, whose implementation predates the pandemic by several years, the United States not only actively promotes domestic production lines through the CHIPS Act but also proposes additional restrictions to intensify and deepen sanctions against China's semiconductor industry and curbing its development From the foundry perspective, TSMC and Samsung recently invested in and established factories in the United States to focus on 5nm advanced processes, while most expansion activities in China are in mature processes above 28nm (inclusive) According to TrendForce data, Chinese foundries are more active in expanding the production capacity of mature processes under the constraints of existing equipment According to TrendForce, the proportion of 12-inch equivalent production capacity in China will increase from 24% to 27% from 2022 to 2025, the highest growth rate among all regions However, only accounting for advanced processes (7nm and below), the United States will post the highest growth rate from 2022 to 2025, with its market share expected to grow to 12% by 2025 The equipment ban has become the biggest variable in Chinese production expansion The Trump administration previously requested the Netherlands halt its export of machinery to China through the Wassenaar Arrangement, making the export of equipment to China more difficult Since SMIC has successfully mass-produced 7nm process products recently, TrendForce believes that the United States may once again use the Arrangement to persuade the Netherlands to expand the scope of restrictions to DUV ArF immersion systems and deepen restrictions on China If the US is convincing, a dearth of  DUV ArF immersion systems not only affects the feasibility of China developing advanced processes below 7nm (inclusive), since ArF immersion systems are also key in 40/28nm expansion, it may also do a great disserve to the semiconductor expansion plans of China’s primary 40nm and 28nm processes For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

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