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keyword：Angus Kao，
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2014/11/28
Polysilicon manufacturers in Japan, China and Korea are improving their production processes in an effort to lower costs, according to EnergyTrend, a division of the Taiwan-based market intelligence firm TrendForce In October, the Japanese firm Tokuyama began producing polysilicon at its Malaysia plant, which has a capacity of 13,800 metric tons Initially, Tokuyama is expected to reach 70% capacity The South Korean polysilicon manufacturer OCI will boost capacity to 10,000 metric tons Hanwha Chemical, another South Korean firm, will add 3,000 to 5,000 metric tons of production capacity
SMP, a joint venture between SunEdison and Samsung Fine Chemicals, is using a new high pressure fluidized bed reactor process (HP-FBR) at its plant in Ulsan, South Korea and will increase polysilicon production from 10,000 metric tons to 13,500 metric tons FBR is a fairly new polysilicon process through which polysilicon is deposited when monosilane gas mixes with silicon seed particles in a reactor, in a continuous process It is an alternative to the dominant electricity-intensive Siemens method, which has been the industry standard for decades “The FBR production method is a breakthrough for the solar industry,” said Angus Kao, a research manager at EnergyTrend, adding that FBR is expected to reduce the cost of modules significantly in 2016 to 04/W and 05/W
China-based GGL, another leading polysilicon manufacturer, will use the FBR production method to boost its production capacity to 25,000 metric tons next year Other Chinese manufacturers will increase their respective production capacities to 20,000 metric tons Overall, Chinese polysilicon companies will use their cost advantages to gain market share and their total capacity is expected to reach 150,000 metric tons, Kao said
Despite China slapping anti-dumping and countervailing duties of 533% to 537% on US polysilicon imports, Chinese manufacturers can use the OEM trading process to bring US and South Korean products into China while evading the duties As a result, in August the China Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs announced it would suspend the processing of applications for the polysilicon OEM trading business Yet it is too early to evaluate the results of their decision In the meantime, the global polysilicon supply chain and prices will be affected
This week’s spot-market prices
Policy moves and changes in supply and demand caused short-term fluctuations in prices this week Polysilicon contract prices were roughly flat Since China will stop polysilicon OEM trading in the end of December, polysilicon prices fell to US$182/kg
Meanwhile, demand for high efficiency polysilicon wafers is stable Prices moved up slightly by 056% to US$0905/piece The demand for high efficiency products has increased and is worthy of attention Monosilicon wafer prices were stable Chinese cell prices remained at US$032/W But Taiwan cells, affected by low-efficiency cells falling to US$03, decreased to US$032/W
High-efficiency cell prices fluctuated, eventually falling 147% Module demand is stable across the United States, Europe, Australia, China and India Prices for the 250W increased 035% to U$0575/W
2014/11/13
Japanese electricity companies are temporarily scaling back their involvement with solar projects as solar supply outstrips demand, threatening to wreak havoc in the market, according to EnergyTrend, a division of the Taiwan-based market intelligence firm TrendForce In September, Kyushu (X) Electric Power Co, Ltd became the first Japanese firm to announce it would not sign any additional purchase contracts with solar manufacturers until further notice Soon after, Kyushu, Shikoku Electric Power Company, Tohoku Electric Power Company, Hokkaido Electric Power Company and Okinawa Electric Power Company also announced they would not take on any new solar power projects Meanwhile, current Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) schemes heavily skewed toward solar power have led to some problems As a result, the Mineral and Natural Resources Division of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) is mulling whether to adjust the FiT schemes of different renewables, and have decided not to place too much emphasis on solar power Some scholars and experts are expected to submit relevant reform proposals by the end of the year
“Japan has always been seen as a market with stable policy in solar power and has room to grow, but recently, as policy has become unpredictable, some major solar projects have been affected,” said Angus Kao, a research manager at EnergyTrend “This may herald the end of Japan’s solar power revolution” Still, the residential solar power market is emerging in Japan and qualifies for government subsidies, Kao said, adding that companies are beginning to offer comprehensive services in that sub-sector
Research by EnergyTrend shows that the exported modules from China to Japan in the first half of 2014 hit a record high And China’s percentage of both Japan’s 255W and 260 W imports has grown from 14% in the first quarter to 21% in the third quarter Japan is also Taiwan’s primary module export market Taiwan exported almost 200 MW to Japan in the first half of 2014 But Taiwan’s share of the Japanese market is relatively low compared to manufacturers from China
There are still some manufacturers in Japan who have been approved for solar projects and they have deadlines to meet, so the market will continue to grow for a while, Kao said But in the future, Japan’s solar market will grow at relatively slower pace and its focus will switch to roof-based solar systems, he added
This week’s spot market prices
Prices remained virtually unchanged this week China manufacturers are rushing to fill orders by the end of the year so wafer and cell supply are tight Meanwhile, the US’s decision on the anti-dumping and countervailing duties is not yet clear If policy remains stable in the US and Japan, this will ease fears in the global solar supply chain Polysilicon prices this week were stable as supply and demand were balanced Domestic demand in China helped demand for polysilicon wafers to remain stable as well Standard multi-crystalline prices remained the same Monocrystal wafer prices dropped 086% to US$1155/pc as supply was abundant Regarding cells, the demand in China was strong and the supply was limited so prices moved 031% to US$032/W But prices in Taiwan dropped to US$0325/W mainly because domestic demand in China, the main market for Taiwan cell exporters, is not robust right now, while Taiwan’s share of other cell markets is much smaller Module prices remained in the same range and only went up slightly
2014/11/07
The Philippine Department of Energy (DOE) said recently it would accelerate the development of renewable energy projects, emphasizing the importance of producing energy locally to ensure energy security Thus far, the Philippine DOE has made minimal progress in its renewable energy endeavors It has cancelled more than 100 renewable energy project contracts that it has signed with other parties
To increase the efficacy of its renewable energy projects, the Phillipines DOE will undertake a number of measures Those measures include boosting the wattage of solar electricity systems from 50 MW to 500MW and shortening project processing time from two years to 45 days, said Angus Kao, a research manager at EnergyTrend, a division of the Taiwan-based market intelligence firm TrendForce “These efforts by the Philippine DOE could help to increase foreign investment in its renewable energy projects,” Kao said
In early October, as it celebrated its twelfth birthday, the Thailand Department of Energy also rolled out an energy plan of its own The plan calls for speedy procurement of a 2000 MW electricity system from solar factories next year
China’s largest module export markets are in Southeast Asia Among them, the Philippines and Thailand are Nos 1 and 2 respectively In the first half of 2014, China exported 158 MW to the Philippines and 98 MW to Thailand Singapore, Indonesia and Vietnam are China’s third, fourth and fifth largest module export markets, respectively “Because the Philippines’ renewable energy policy is becoming clear, China’s module exports to the Philippines grew 19% to 43 MW in August,” Kao said
This week’s spot market prices
There are a number of factors affecting the supply chain Demand from the Chinese domestic market is stable and growing gradually By contrast, Europe has entered the offseason as the weather cools and Japanese demand is falling because of grid restrictions Overall, polysilicon prices are stable Polysilicon wafer prices are stable thanks to Chinese demand Major price fluctuations are not expected Monocrystalline silicon wafers continue to fall, down 068% to US $ 1165 / pc Cell prices in China are stable But Taiwanese manufacturers are feeling pressured to lower prices, which decreased 06 percent to US $ 033 /w That means the demand for Taiwanese cells is limited as is the range that prices will increase Module prices have remained the same thus far in November
