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2023/08/30
TrendForce expects that memory suppliers will continue their strategy of scaling back production of both DRAM and NAND Flash in 2024, with the cutback being particularly pronounced in the financially struggling NAND Flash sector Market demand visibility for consumer electronic is projected to remain uncertain in 1H24 Additionally, capital expenditure for general-purpose servers is expected to be weakened due to competition from AI servers Considering the low baseline set in 2023 and the current low pricing for some memory products, TrendForce anticipates YoY bit demand growth rates for DRAM and NAND Flash to be 13% and 16%, respectively Nonetheless, achieving effective inventory reduction and restoring supply-demand balance next year will largely hinge on suppliers’ ability to exercise restraint in their production capacities If managed effectively, this could open up an opportunity for a rebound in average memory prices
PC: The annual growth rate for average DRAM capacity is projected at approximately 124%, driven mainly by Intel’s new Meteor Lake CPUs coming into mass production in 2024 This platform’s DDR5 and LPDDR5 exclusivity will likely make DDR5 the new mainstream, surpassing DDR4 in the latter half of 2024 The growth rate in PC client SSDs will not be as robust as that of PC DRAM, with just an estimated growth of 8–10% As consumer behavior increasingly shifts toward cloud-based solutions, the demand for laptops with large storage capacities is decreasing Even though 1 TB models are becoming more available, 512 GB remains the predominant storage option Furthermore, memory suppliers are maintaining price stability by significantly reducing production Should prices hit rock bottom and subsequently rebound, PC OEMs are expected to face elevated SSD costs This, when combined with Windows increasing its licensing fees for storage capacities at and above 1 TB, is likely to put a damper on further growth in average storage capacities
Servers: The annual growth rate for the average capacity of server DRAM is estimated to reach 173% This surge is primarily fueled by generational transitions in server platforms, a heightened dependency on RAM that is coordinated with CPU cores in specific CSP operations, and the high computational load requirements of AI servers Enterprise SSDs: The estimated annual growth rate of average capacity stands at 147% For CSPs, the rollout of processors supporting PCle 50 suggests that inventory levels for these OEMs should return to normal by early next year, likely prompting an uptick in the procurement of 8 TB products On the brand side for servers, while the sharp decline in NAND Flash prices is propelling an increase in 16 TB deployments, the contribution of AI servers to this growth remains relatively limited
Smartphones: The annual production growth rate for smartphones in 2024 is estimated to be a modest 22%, largely impacted by a global economic downturn TrendForce cites this as the primary reason for the sluggish growth in demand volume Thanks to multiple consecutive quarters of declining memory prices, brands are increasingly focusing on hardware competition Consequently, the average DRAM memory capacity in smartphones is projected to rise by approximately 143% in 2023 Given that the ASP of mobile DRAM is expected to remain at a relatively low point in 2024, this trend is likely to persist, potentially leading to an additional 79% growth in average device memory capacity for the year
UFS & eMMC: Factors such as growing demand for image storage and increased 5G penetration are expected to drive up the average storage capacity in smartphones However, as suppliers scale back production to set the stage for potential price hikes, smartphone OEMs are projected to exercise greater caution in cost management in 2024, potentially leading to fewer mid-to-low-end models offering over 1TB of storage On a related note, the absence of enthusiasm for QLC products among smartphone OEMs likely presents an obstacle for suppliers aiming to nudge consumers toward capacity upgrades via lower-cost options With smartphone storage baselines continually rising and given Apple's current lack of plans to introduce iPhone models exceeding 1TB of storage, TrendForce anticipates that the annual growth rate for average smartphone storage capacity will hover around 13% in 2024
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/07/05
TrendForce reports that continued production cuts by DRAM suppliers have led to a gradual quarterly decrease in overall DRAM supply Seasonal demand, on the other hand, is helping to mitigate inventory pressure on suppliers TrendForce projects that the third quarter will see the ASP for DRAM converging towards a 0~5% decline Despite suppliers’ concerted efforts, inventory levels persistently remain high, keeping prices low While production cutbacks may help to curtail quarterly price declines, a tangible recovery in prices may not be seen until 2024
PC DRAM: The benefits of consolidated production cuts on DDR4 by the top three suppliers are expected to become evident in the third quarter Furthermore, inventory pressure on suppliers has been partially alleviated due to aggressive purchasing by several OEMs at low prices during 2Q23 Evaluating average price trends for PC DRAM products in 3Q23 reveals that DDR4 will continue to remain in a state of persistent oversupply, leading to an expected quarterly price drop of 3~8% DDR5 prices—influenced by suppliers’ efforts to maintain prices and unmet buyer demand—are projected to see a 0–5% quarterly decline The overall ASP of PC DRAM is projected to experience a QoQ decline of 0~5% in the third quarter
Server DRAM: Buyer inventories remain high and the transition to new platforms has fallen short of expectations Despite the recent investment focus by CSPs on AI server equipment, which is accelerating the procurement of high-capacity server DRAM such as DDR5 128G and HBM, there hasn’t been a significant reduction in server DRAM inventories The price decline for DDR4 and DDR5 stands at approximately 3~8% and 0~5% respectively, signaling a persistently weak pricing trend for server DRAM products Consequently, average server DRAM prices are forecasted to decline by about 0~5% in 3Q23
Mobile DRAM: Even though smartphone demand was weak in 1H23, the traditional peak season and concurrent production cuts by suppliers are expected to drive up demand for mobile DRAM However, these measures offer limited assistance in being able to substantially reduce suppliers’ inventory levels Successive price declines over past quarters have now reached baseline prices for suppliers, prompting Korean firms to lead a hike in mobile DRAM prices But due to the prevailing oversupply, a standoff has ensued between buyers and sellers The ASP of mobile DRAM is predicted to fall by 0~5% in 3Q23, although sporadic price increases may occur due to strategic moves made by suppliers
Graphics DRAM: The NVIDIA RTX 40 series, along with the traditional peak season, is anticipated to stimulate a significant upswing in demand for graphics DRAM—particularly GDDR6 16Gb—during the third quarter However, given that buyers accumulated stock ahead of time in the second quarter and now hold substantial inventory, suppliers may find themselves unable to increase prices in a market that remains in a state of oversupply Therefore, the market price of mainstream GDDR6 16Gb is projected to see a quarterly drop of 0~5% in the third quarter, mirroring an approximate 0~5% decline in ASP for graphics DRAM
Consumer DRAM: The market is currently witnessing a sluggish transactional pace SK hynix plans to expand the supply of DDR3 and DDR4 4Gb at its Wuxi fab, gradually increasing production capacity Simultaneously, Winbond has transitioned into the mass production stage, with an increase in wafer input expected each quarter As a result, the consumer DRAM market continues to grapple with oversupply Nevertheless, suppliers are progressively cutting back production, the benefits which are expected to materialize in the third quarter Given the substantial operating losses incurred by these suppliers, these factors should curtail the decline in ASP of consumer DRAM to 0~5% in 3Q23
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/05/09
TrendForce’s latest research indicates that, as production cuts to DRAM and NAND Flash have not kept pace with weakening demand, the ASP of some products is expected to decline further in 2Q23 DRAM prices are projected to fall 13~18%; NAND Flash is expected to fall between 8~13%
TrendForce reports that the significant drop in DRAM prices was mostly attributed to high inventory levels of DDR4 and LPDDR5 as PC DRAM, server DRAM, and mobile DRAM collectively account for over 85% of DRAM consumption Meanwhile, the market share for DDR5 remains relatively low
PC DRAM: Despite suppliers urgently reducing inventory, transaction volume has failed to increase due to the ample supply of DDR4 In contrast, prices for DDR5 are experiencing a far more moderate decline compared to DDR4 thanks to a tighter supply Overall, the ASP of PC DRAM is expected to decrease by 15~20% in 2Q23
Server DRAM: Weaker server demand has led to increased DDR4 inventory pressure on suppliers, with quarterly price declines expanding to 18~23% The supply of DDR5 has been constrained owing to PMIC compatibility issues, narrowing the price decline for server DRAM in 2Q23 to 13~18% However, given that DDR5’s market share remains low, its impact on price changes is limited, meaning the overall price decline in 2Q23 for server DRAM will remain between 15~20%
Mobile DRAM: Smartphone brands have finally finished correcting their memory inventories meaning a higher purchasing momentum compared to last year However, inventory pressure on suppliers continues to remain high, which means they are more willing to offer discounts Buyers have been merging Q3 demand with Q2 to increase their bargaining power, causing the ASP decline of mobile DRAM to expand to 13~18% in 2Q23
NAND Flash is primarily affected by enterprise SSD and UFS price drops, and the oversupply situation in the market has yet to be resolved These two products account for over 50% of total NAND Flash consumption
Enterprise SSD: Server demand continues to be revised downward, exacerbating inventory pressure on manufacturers Order volume in China has not significantly increased following the lifting of lockdown restrictions Orders for server ODMs have also struggled to grow due to high inventory levels, leading to the ASP decline of enterprise SSDs in 2Q23 to expand to 10~15% Demand for enterprise SSDs is expected to grow significantly in 2H23 as new platforms are released and inventory levels continue to fall
UFS: Smartphone brands have finally finished correcting their memory inventories meaning a higher purchasing momentum compared to last year However, inventory pressure on suppliers continues to remain high, which means they are more willing to offer discounts Buyers have been merging Q3 demand with Q2 to increase their bargaining power, causing the ASP decline of UFS to expand to 10~15% in 2Q23
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/03/28
TrendForce reports that several suppliers, such as Micron and SK hynix, have started scaling back DRAM production The ASP of DRAM plunged 20% in 1Q23, and this price decline is predicted to slow down to 10~15% next quarter It’s uncertain whether or not demand will recover in 2H23 Therefore, the ASP of DRAM has continued to fall as inventory levels are high from the suppliers’ side, and prices will only rebound if there is a significant decrease in production
PC DRAM: Purchase quantity from buyers has fallen drastically over the past three quarters; buyers have around 9~13 weeks of PC DRAM stock remaining Despite suppliers having already cut production in the PC DRAM segment, DDR4 8 GB module is still likely to fall by more than 10% in 2Q23 There is a possibility that PC OEMs may purchase more DRAM because prices have been down to a relatively low level, but it is still under observation whether or not this can mitigate the inventory overstock situation from the suppliers’ side TrendForce predicts the ASP of PC DRAM will fall between 10~15%
Server DRAM: Demand for server DRAM from OEMs and cloud service providers has been sluggish due to inventory adjustments In addition, consumer demand looks less than promising, prompting suppliers to increase the ratio of server DRAMs in their product mixes However, this resulted in a massive inventory pile-up during 1Q23 While most suppliers have lowered their capacity utilization rates, their efforts have yet to make a noticeable impact on declining prices TrendForce predicts that the ASP of server DRAM will fall 13~18% in 2Q23
Mobile DRAM: The DRAM inventories of smartphone brands have returned to a relatively healthy level However, these brands have mostly adopted a conservative plan of action for smartphone production, which means that buyer demand for mobile DRAM will be constrained in 2Q23 As a result, suppliers are under a great deal of pressure to sell off as much stock as possible Even with cutbacks being made in mobile DRAM production, reversing their current overstock will continue to be a challenge for these companies TrendForce predicts the ASP of mobile DRAM to continue falling as we move into 2Q23 Nevertheless, there is a possibility that the decline will shrink to 10~15%
Graphics DRAM: Buyers have been stocking up on graphics DRAM rather conservatively, while even AI has failed to make a considerable impact on demand Taking a mainstream product, the GDDR6 16 Gb, for example, TrendForce predicts ASP will fall 10~15% QoQ in 2Q23 due to constrained demand The DRAM industry is currently in the midst of transitioning from 8 to 16 Gb; Samsung’s GDDR6 8 Gb will reach its EOL at the end of the year Beginning 2024, SK hynix will be the only company still offering 8 Gb products Rolling back production could finally present an opportunity for the price of GDDR6 8 Gb to stop fluctuating aggressively
Consumer DRAM: Demand for networking devices has been relatively stable However, buyers have dialed back their procurement activities as of late given that existing orders have been completed These buyers appear to have conservative estimations of the growth potential of network-related demand this year, and the application market, which includes television, will be unable to support demand for the consumer DRAM market Supply continues to outpace demand even as suppliers reduce their production considerably TrendForce predicts that the ASP of consumer DRAM will fall 10~15% in 2Q23
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/01/09
TrendForce’s latest analysis of the DRAM market finds that the inventory pressure on suppliers remain significant due to the persistently weak demand for consumer electronics Among the top three DRAM suppliers, only Samsung has seen a slight drop in inventory level thanks to its highly competitive pricing strategy To prevent DRAM prices as a whole from making another sharp dive, a few suppliers such as Micron have been cutting production Therefore, the QoQ decline in DRAM prices are projected to shrink to around 13~18% for 1Q23 However, the slump will have yet to reach the bottom at that time Regarding the QoQ changes in the prices of the major categories of DRAM products for 1Q23, PC DRAM and server DRAM are projected to again register a drop that is near 20% Conversely, mobile DRAM will experience the smallest price decline because its profit margin is ready the thinnest
In the PC DRAM segment, PC OEMs have lowered procurement quantity for two consecutive quarters as sales of notebook (laptop) computers have been lackluster Now, moving into 1Q23, PC OEMs hold around 9~13 weeks of PC DRAM inventory Even though they are working hard to consume the existing stock, the traditional low season acts a powerful constraint The overall PC DRAM bit output is expected to fall during 1Q23 because Micron has already made a marginal cut to its PC DRAM production, and SK Hynix will soon follow suit However, supply glut will still be significant in the PC DRAM segment The top three suppliers have been aggressive in lowering prices for DDR5 products, so the DDR5 penetration rate in the PC DRAM segment is projected to reach almost 20% in 1Q23 Regarding QoQ changes in PC DRAM prices for 1Q23, DDR5 products will experience a drop of around 18~23%, and DDR4 products will experience a drop of around 15~20% The ASP of PC DRAM products is projected to fall by around 15~20% QoQ for 1Q23
Turning to the server DRAM segment, server demand is going to fall during 1Q23 because of the effects of the traditional low season, inventory adjustments, and the recent weakening of the global economy North American cloud service providers have already started to dial down server demand in terms of procurement quantity and the pace of server deployment However, suppliers continue to raise the share of server DRAM in production, so this segment continues to face mounting inventory pressure While some suppliers are cutting production, this is not enough to effectively limit the decline in server DRAM prices Regarding QoQ changes in server DRAM prices for 1Q23, DDR5 products are expected to suffer a decline of 18~23%, which is slightly larger compared with the projected drop experienced by DDR4 products for the same period However, the DDR5 penetration rate in the server DRAM segment is projected to reach just around 10% in 1Q23 Thus, DDR4 products are going to determine the extent of the general decline Currently, the ASP of server DRAM products is projected to fall by around 15~20% QoQ for 1Q23
The mobile DRAM segment has benefited from about six quarters of inventory adjustments on the part of smartphone brands Currently, smartphone brands hold 5~7 weeks of mobile DRAM inventory on average, so the inventory situation is fairly optimal On the other hand, smartphone sales have been in a slump A rebound is not expected in the short term, especially after the latest change in China’s policy on controlling COVID-19 outbreaks With smartphone brands lowering their device sales targets for 2023, there will be a certain degree of difficulty when it comes to inventory consumption in the mobile DRAM segment However, mobile DRAM quotes are starting to show a more moderate decline than before because suppliers have scaled back production, and the effect of this will become more prominent over time Moreover, mobile DRAM already has the lowest profit margin compared with other categories of DRAM products Since the market consensus is that the demand for mobile DRAM products will remain weak, slashing prices further will do little in helping suppliers to capture more market share Hence, TrendForce projects that the QoQ decline in mobile DRAM prices will narrow to around 10~15% for 1Q23
With regard to the graphics DRAM segment, shipments are going to ramp up for graphics cards and notebook computers featuring the latest GPUs However, the overall demand for consumer electronics is sluggish, and the previous period for inventory adjustments was quite long Therefore, graphics DRAM buyers maintains a cautious procurement strategy Furthermore, demand growth still lagged behind supply growth in graphics DRAM segment during 4Q22, so inventory continues to pile up for this product category on the supply side Additionally, for the specifications of the mainstream graphics DRAM solutions, there will be a full-scale shift in buyers’ demand from GDDR6 8Gb to GDDR6 16Gb during 2023 With the demand for them becoming more limited, graphics DRAM products based on GDDR6 8Gb will experience more dramatic price fluctuations TrendForce currently projects that the ASP of graphics DRAM products will fall by about 18~23% QoQ for 1Q23, but the decline could get larger if suppliers continue to undercut each other in this segment
Lastly, in the consumer DRAM segment, prices have yet to leave the downturn phase as there are no signs of buyers ramping up procurement activities Also, the flow of consumer DRAM orders related to networking devices was steady before but has now started to gradually decelerate this first quarter Due to these developments, shipments of consumer DRAM products on the whole are going to slide Even though Micron began to cut production in November last year, suppliers’ DRAM inventories have been climbing to new heights This segment will continue to experience excess supply unless suppliers undergo several quarters of inventory adjustments and make larger production cuts TrendForce projects that the ASP of consumer DRAM products will fall by 18~23% QoQ for 1Q23 as supply glut persists in this segment
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
