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2022/08/03
According to TrendForce, DRAM market demand bit growth will only amount to 83% in 2023, sub-10% for the first time in history, and far lower than supply-side bit growth of approximately 141% Data indicates the DRAM market to be severely oversupplied at least in 2023 and prices may continue to decline NAND Flash is still in a state of oversupply and, although prices are expected to fall in the first half of next year, NAND Flash has built-in price elasticity compared to DRAM and average prices are expected to stimulate density growth in the enterprise SSD market after declining for several consecutive quarters Demand bits are expected to grow by 289%, while supply bits will grow by approximately 321%
From the perspective of various applications, rising inflation continues to impact demand in consumer markets, so the primary goal of memory brands has been to prioritize inventory correction Especially in the past two years, a shortage of upstream components caused by the pandemic led memory brands to overbook purchase orders while sluggish sales on the distribution channel side have resulted in slow depletion of current notebook inventory, resulting in a further weakening of notebook demand in 2023 In terms of PC DRAM, the proportion of DDR4 and LPDDR4X in PC applications will fall further while the penetration rate of LPDDR5 and DDR5 continues to rise However, the price premium of DDR5 will limit the growth of density in PCs DRAM density in PCs is estimate to increase by approximately 7% annually in 2023 If manufactures cut DDR5 pricing more aggressively next year, installed capacity may be driven up to 9%, depending on whether DDR5 price concessions can be effectively reconciled with DDR4
In terms of PC client SSDs, estimated average installed capacity only increased slightly by 11%, the lowest in the past three years The primary reason is that in the past two years, notebook shipments had spiked due to pandemic demand, simultaneously driving SSD installation rate Average capacity has readily driven up average capacity growth due to the previous tightening of SSD master IC supply However, notebook computer whole device costs have maintained an upward trend in the past two years due to the rising price of components, leading to branded PC manufacturers planning relatively conservative SSD capacity demand bits
Since server shipment forecasts have demonstrated impressive growth in past years, subsequent growth momentum will slow since computational fundamentals are already high In terms of Server DRAM, due to the advent of fifth generation memory specifications, the new Sapphire Rapids and Genoa platforms have increased the cost of whole devices and average server capacity has begun to encounter restrictions Instead of the prior practice of merely upgrading the capacity of a single module, demand side considerations will focus more on hardware costs and the practice of ESG strategies Average capacity increase of server DRAM is forecast to be limited in 2023, with an annual increase of approximately 7%
In terms of Enterprise SSD, the new Sapphire Rapids and Genoa platforms have begun to upgrade to support the PCIe 50 transfer standard in order to meet the needs of HPC and big data computing The capacity of SSDs must also be upgraded simultaneously to ensure PCIe 50 transfer performance This trend will contribute to the growth of the average capacity of enterprise SSDs next year In addition, as the overall NAND Flash oversupply continues into 1H23, a reduction in NAND Flash pricing will increase the shipment ratio of products above 4TB and the average annual growth rate of enterprise SSD capacity in 2023 is estimated to be 26%
As inflation rises, world economies are generally holding a pessimistic view of the consumer market TrendForce believes, cyclical replacement demand and new demand in emerging regions will lead to a slight increase in smartphone production In terms of Mobile DRAM, the Android camp currently has sufficient installed capacity to meet the needs of daily systems operation Therefore, barring impetus provided by innovative applications and considering the cost of whole devices and the low proportion of high-end sales, smartphone brands’ willingness to increase installed capacity has fallen accordingly In terms of the iOS camp, a high degree of operating system optimization reduces demand for mobile DRAM capacity Mobile DRAM density is estimated to increase by only 5% annually in 2023
In terms of smartphone NAND Flash, as the penetration rate of 5G smartphones gradually expands and applications require larger installed capacity to meet the needs of high-quality video recording, basic momentum can be seen for increasing NAND Flash density in smartphones At the same time, the iPhone product portfolio is still moving towards higher capacity across the board and high-end Android models have followed suit with 512GB as standard, while storage in mid- and low-end models will increase with subsequent upgrades in hardware specifications Thus, there is still room for growth in overall average capacity Annual growth of smartphone NAND Flash density is forecast to be maintained at 221% in 2023, slightly lower than that in 2022, but still at a high level
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
The Webinar, ”COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar: Diverse Market Opportunities Generated by Applications of Cyber-Physical Systems” will start from June 15, 2022 The TrendForce research team including Mark Liu, Caron Ju, Bryan Ao, and Alex Chen will present speeches regarding memory, servers, and datacenters, respectively
【Info】
When：Wednesday, June, 15
Where：COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar (Free to access)
2022/07/04
According to the latest TrendForce research, despite the rapid weakening of overall consumer demand in 1H22, DRAM manufacturers previously presented a tough stance on price negotiations and gave little ground, steadily conveying inventory pressure from buyers to sellers Facing uncertain peak-season demand in 2H22, some DRAM suppliers have begun effectively expressing clear intentions to cut prices, especially in the server field, where demand is relatively stable, in order to reduce inventory pressure This situation will cause 3Q22 DRAM pricing to drop from the previous 3~8% to nearly 10% QoQ If a price war is incited due to companies competing for sales, the drop in prices may exceed 10%
PC OEMs have continuously downgraded their shipment prospects With average DRAM inventory levels at more than two months, unless a huge price incentive exists, there is no urgent demand for procurement At the same time, thanks to continuous adoption of the advanced 1Z/1alpha process, supply continued to increase in 3Q22 DDR4 output could not be effectively reduced due to high pricing limiting the penetration rate of DDR5 The price decline of PC DRAM in 3Q22 is revised to 5~10%
At present, server DRAM inventory clients have on hand is approximately 7 to 8 weeks and the buyers’ consensus is that the price of DRAM will continue to fall due to increased inventory pressure on sellers If manufacturers are willing to provide attractive quotations, buyers are willing to discuss the possibility of volume commitments As advanced manufacturing processes progress dynamically and terminal consumer products continue to weaken, server DRAM has become the only effective sales outlet Therefore, Korean manufacturers were the first to signal a willingness to discuss a quarterly pricing reduction of more than 5%, which expanded the decline of server DRAM to 5~10% in 3Q22
Smartphone production targets continued to be downgraded due to the sluggish economy In addition, smartphone brands are also pessimistic regarding future prospects, casting a gloom over their attitude towards materials stocking However, the output of mobile DRAM still increased in 3Q22 due to the adoption of advanced processes among several manufacturers, increasing pressure on suppliers This increases the willingness of sellers to offer price concessions Given the polarized disparity between supply and demand, the pricing decline of mobile DRAM is forecast to expand to 8-13% this quarter
Demand for graphics DRAM procurement has weakened due to inflation-related reduction in consumer products demand and a faltering cryptocurrency market At the same time, migrating graphics DRAM production capacity to other types of DRAM products in not as easy as migrating standard DRAM (Commodity DRAM) capacity Although demand has weakened, it is difficult for suppliers to quickly adjust output Therefore, they are also facing increasing inventory pressure Graphics DRAM pricing in 3Q22 is revised to decline 3-8% QoQ
TV shipments lead the fall and demand related to networking and industrial applications have also shown signs of weakening The price of DDR3 is currently at a relatively high point and there is plenty of room for pricing to fall in the future Weak stocking momentum originating from DDR4-related applications does not rule out the possibility of a wider decline In addition to the expansion of output due to the introduction of advanced processes, Chinese and Taiwanese manufacturers will still add new production capacity in 2H22 The decline in consumer DRAM pricing is forecast to deepen to 8~13% this quarter
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
The Webinar, ”COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar: Diverse Market Opportunities Generated by Applications of Cyber-Physical Systems” will start from June 15, 2022 The TrendForce research team including Mark Liu, Caron Ju, Bryan Ao, and Alex Chen will present speeches regarding memory, servers, and datacenters, respectively
【Info】
When：Wednesday, June, 15
Where：COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar (Free to access)
2022/06/20
According to TrendForce research, despite the significance of peak season and rising DDR5 penetration, the 3Q22 DRAM market still succumbed to the negative impact of weak consumer electronics demand resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war and high inflation, which in turn led to an increase in overall DRAM inventory This is the primary reason for a 3-8% drop in DRAM prices in 3Q22 and a more than 8% pricing dip in certain DRAM products for PCs and smart phones cannot be ruled out
In terms of PC DRAM, sustained weakening of demand has led to PC OEMs adjusting their annual shipment targets and also caused DRAM inventories to soar rapidly In 3Q22, PC OEMs remain focused on adjusting and destocking DRAM inventories, making a rebound in purchasing momentum unlikely At the same time, since the overall DRAM industry remains oversupplied, even if PC demand is sluggish, suppliers still experienced difficulties in reducing their PC DRAM supply, resulting in a slight quarterly increase in the number of supplied bits Therefore, PC DRAM pricing is forecast to drop by 3~8%
In terms of server DRAM, current client inventory levels of 7-8 weeks is slightly high, and though direct sales is currently the server field’s primary distribution channel, clients’ bit demand is still not enough to fully consume the bit output derived from increased wafer input and process advancement In addition, demand for consumer PC DRAM and mobile DRAM is uncertain in 2H22, forcing suppliers to transfer production capacity to server DRAM As a result, suppliers have to adopt certain sales strategies such as two quarter price binding or increasing on hand inventory to suppress price declines Server DRAM is forecast to drop by another 0~5% in 3Q22
In terms of Mobile DRAM, as sales in the consumer market fail to meet expectations, suppliers are forced to incrementally reduce the proportion of mobile DRAM production quarter by quarter and switch to server DRAM, thereby stabilizing market inventory and prices However, the supply of mobile DRAM bits did not drop significantly due to the increased manufacturing In addition, average memory installed per machine failed to increase significantly, resulting in continued oversupply and expanding price decline to 3~8% compared to 2Q22 TrendForce also indicates, bit shipments were limited due to sluggish demand for smartphones in 2Q22 and the urgency of smartphone brands to deplete inventory Under pressure from both revenue and inventory, pricing will see greater flexibility and suppliers will strive to negotiate pricing on some orders before the end of June to alleviate their inventory concerns
In terms of Graphics DRAM, as buyers face increasing inventory and uncertain subsequent demand from distributors, the market's stocking momentum has become weak Although Micron only retained a sporadic supply of GDDR6 8Gb in 3Q22, the current graphics DRAM supply is secure due to increased production volume from Korean manufacturers and the weakening of demand, which caused prices to drop marginally by 0~5% in 3Q22 TrendForce believes that weak demand is a key inhibitor of rising graphics DRAM pricing this quarter However, if suppliers see that a price drop in 3Q22 will not stimulate demand, they will try to keep prices as flat as possible
In terms of consumer DRAM, the purchasing of consumer electronics has been adversely affected by factors such as the Russian-Ukrainian war, China's pandemic lockdowns, and rising inflation Consumer DRAM-related applications such as notebook and TV shipments are facing downward revision In addition, since DDR3 is at a relatively high point, pressured by inventory and cost, buyers’ purchasing power has obviously weakened Demand for DDR3 and DDR4 is forecast to decline simultaneously and market stocking momentum will continue to weaken Korean manufacturers’ plans to withdraw from DDR3 supply remains unchanged but, in 2H22, Chinese and Taiwanese companies will continue to create new production capacity With weaker demand and increased supply, sellers lose their bargaining advantage, making consumer DRAM prices difficult to support in 3Q22 DDR3 and DDR4 prices are forecast to drop by 3-8% QoQ
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
The Webinar, ”COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar: Diverse Market Opportunities Generated by Applications of Cyber-Physical Systems” will start from June 15, 2022 The TrendForce research team including Mark Liu, Caron Ju, Bryan Ao, and Alex Chen will present speeches regarding memory, servers, and datacenters, respectively
【Info】
When：Wednesday, June, 15
Where：COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar (Free to access)
2022/04/12
According to TrendForce, the consumer electronics market will feel the brunt of the weakening stay-at-home economy, the pandemic in China, international tensions, and rising inflation in 1H22 Coupled with the traditional off-season, demand for relevant applications such as PCs, laptops, TVs, and smartphones has cooled significantly and downstream customers have successively downgraded their shipment targets for the year, while demand for automotive, Internet of Things, communications, and servers products remain good At the same time, the supply chain will build higher inventories in general to mitigate the risk of material shortages due to transportation impediments induced by the spread of the pandemic and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine
1 Foundries
Due to the prolonged lead-time of semiconductor equipment and limited new capacity in 1Q22, the overall foundry capacity utilization rate remains fully loaded, in particular, component mismatch issues continue for parts produced at mature nodes (1Xnm~180nm) Looking forward to the second quarter, although growth in global wafer production capacity remains limited, due to weak demand for end products, continuing international tension, and China's forced lockdowns and supervision due to the recent spread of the pandemic, there is an opportunity for the supply chain to obtain a more adequate supply of wafers that were previously squeezed by production capacity
2 Servers
The overall supply of key server materials improved slightly in 1Q22 In addition, due to increasing orders from ultra-large data centers, the general supply cycle of NetCom chips such as LAN IC/chip remains as long as approximately 40 weeks but the demand gap can be bridged by instituting urgent order fees, mitigating actual impact As the aforementioned situation eases, additional orders for ODM motherboard production are moving briskly, prompting continued stocking of FPGAs and PMICs materials NetCom chips are also overstocked and the overall market has a reached a "rich get richer" mindset Material shortages at second-tier ODMs still stifle the production of motherboards for a small number of customers but does not affect the overall server market supply With improvements in material supply, server shipments will increase significantly in 2Q22, growing an estimated 158% QoQ to 36 million units
3 Smartphones
Affected by sluggish seasonal demand, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and rising inflation, market demand has cooled Thus, material delivery issues in the supply chain have eased compared to 2H21 Although there is still a shortage of certain components, most of these shortages are concentrated in mid/low-end smartphone products The lead time for 4G and low-end 5G SoCs is approximately 30 to 40 weeks, which is limited by production capacity planning Since last year, the demand of the mid/low-end mobile phone market has not been met This is followed by A+G sensors with a lead time of approximately 32~36 weeks and OLED DDIC and Touch IC with a lead time of 20~22 weeks The production volume of smartphones in 2Q22 will be affected by the interaction of the aforementioned factors with a forecast production volume of 323 million units, or only 6% QoQ, which is lower than the performance of previous years
4 Notebooks
Also affected by weakening end market demand, discounting client SSDs that are no longer oversupplied, Type C IC, WiFi, and PMIC all currently boast long lead times, with Type C IC the lengthiest at 20~25 weeks However, compared with TrendForce’s assessment at the beginning of this year, the delivery cycle has not grown longer, so the lead time of these three types of products is expected to improve by the end of 2Q22 As supply chain backlog continues to improve, shipments of notebook computers (including Chromebooks) is expected to reach approximately 551 million units in 2Q22, down 07% QoQ
5 MLCC Passive Components
From the perspective of other key components, taking MLCC as an example, demand for major consumer electronic products such as mobile phones, laptops, tablets, and TVs declined significantly in 1Q22, resulting in high consumer product specification MLCC inventory levels held by original suppliers and channel agents and this situation may continue into 2Q22 At present, the stocking momentum for automotive and industrial MLCCs has steadily increased, while consumer specification products have yet to escape the pattern of oversupply In 2Q22, the MLCC market has the opportunity to alleviate its component mismatch issues through gradually increased production capacity and automotive and server ICs supplied by semiconductor IDM companies, driving stocking momentum at automotive power, server, fast charging, and charging/energy storage equipment OEMs Vehicle and industrial MLCCs have the opportunity to become primary growth drivers in 2Q22 with Murata, TDK, Taiyu and Yageo as the primary beneficiaries Consumer specification products, which account for the bulk of MLCC production from suppliers in Taiwan, South Korea, and China, may face continued market demand weakness in 2Q22 due to a slowdown in demand for mobile phones and laptops and continuing inventory adjustment by branded companies and ODMs
Looking forward to 2Q22, not including servers, demand for end products related to the consumer category remains weak Components that were originally oversupplied will face more severe price tests due to the imbalance between supply and demand In terms of materials in serious short supply, more output will be transferred to products with strong demand through the deployment of internal production capacity TrendForce believes that from the changes in PC market conditions, it can be seen in rapid changes in demand, purchasing behavior has quickly switched from the former over-ordering strategy to actively cutting orders, inducing supply chains to buck the seasonal trends of previous years Due to the accelerated recent spread of Omicron in China and under the country’s dynamic zero-COVID policy, mandatory and sudden lockdown and control measures may cause local manufacturers to face multiple and complex supply chain problems, which will be detrimental to market performance
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/03/07
Intel and AMD will be releasing new CPUs that support DDR5 DRAM solutions for PCs and servers this year In response, the DRAM industry led by South Korean suppliers is developing solutions to complement the arrival of the new CPUs In the midst of the gradual shift to DDR5, DRAM suppliers will also scale back the supply of DDR3 solutions, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations With Korean suppliers accelerating their withdrawal from DDR3 production, Taiwanese suppliers yet to kick off mass production using newly installed capacities, and Chinese suppliers falling short of their expected yield rate, the global supply of DDR3 solutions will undergo an impending decline With respect to the demand side, however, not only has the supply of networking chips been ramping up, but material shortage issues are also gradually easing As such, buyers are now procuring DDR3 solutions ahead of time, resulting in a tight supply and demand situation in the DDR3 market TrendForce therefore expects DDR3 DRAM prices to recover from a bearish first quarter and undergo a 0-5% QoQ increase in 2Q22
On the supply side, Samsung and SK hynix have begun scaling back their DDR3 production while also planning to declare EOL (end of life) for their DDR3 offerings, such as 1/2Gb and 4Gb chips It should be noted, however, that Micron’s DDR3 solutions will not reach EOL even by 2026, meaning the company will still offer DDR3 solutions long after its two Korean competitors have stopped doing so, according to TrendForce’s understanding Also worth noting is that Micron is migrating its DDR3 production to a US-based fab that mainly manufactures specialty DRAM solutions Nevertheless, since this fab’s production capacity will be divided between products for consumer and automotive applications, TrendForce believes that the aforementioned migration will tighten Micron’s supply of consumer DRAM solutions because the US fab will give priority to automotive DRAM solutions that offer a higher gross margin and are currently enjoying surging demand
Although Taiwan-based DRAM suppliers that focus on promoting DDR3 solutions, namely, Nanya Tech and Winbond, are in the process of capacity expansion, their new production lines will not be operational until 2023-2024 Hence, the contribution from the newly added capacities is not expected to drive up DDR3 supply substantially this year Chinese suppliers, including CXMT and GigaDevice, are continuing to collaborate in DDR3 development, though their capacity increases and yield rate improvements have both fallen short of market expectations After being added to the Entity List, JHICC, yet another China-based DRAM supplier, is now dealing with severe restrictions with respect to procuring equipment, making it difficult for JHICC to raise its wafer input Furthermore, the company has no spare resources that can be allocated to R&D and pilot runs As a result, JHICC still primarily manufactures DDR4 4Gb chips at its initial 25nm node, with no DDR3 production at the moment
With regards to demand, DDR3 consumer DRAM is primarily used in end-devices such as STBs and networking products (eg, GPON, routers, and modems), which do not require high-performance SoCs While the foundry industry suffered a severe shortage of wafer capacities allocated to logic ICs in 4Q21, production capacities for relatively low-margin chips were noticeably impacted in turn Along with a preexisting component mismatch situation, most manufacturers found themselves unable to assemble end-devices Moving into early 2022, however, the supply of certain materials, including those used in foundry operations, saw a gradual improvement As various components needed for device manufacturing became available after Lunar New Year, certain buyers have once again kicked off their consumer DRAM procurement activities
In addition, DRAM spot prices shifted from a prior decline to a strong upturn at the end of last year as the Chinese government ordered a month-long lockdown in Xi’an The ensuing price hike, which has lasted for two months, subsequently led buyers to procure even more DRAM ahead of time in anticipation of further price hikes Hence, although the demand for end-products has yet to make a full recovery, buyers are now slowly and steadily procuring consumer DRAM in order to avoid either higher upcoming prices or even an inability to secure consumer DRAM inventory
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
